Rail usage

[Magdalia]

So more people opted to use train mid September, and then railway screwed up due to not securing wires properly.

Not good when encourage passengers back, then fail them

No, I don't think that's what it means. The disruption I'm referring to was in 2025 not 2026. Elizabeth Line usage would have been very low on 18 September 2025 because the OHL was down, but "normal" on 18 September 2026, so that would show a big increase year on year. Disruption on the Elizabeth Line on its own is big enough to have an impact on the National aggregates.

I suspect that there may be something in the methodology that's producing the 18-22 September numbers but it needs a bit of research and I don't have time to do that now. This could be something related to the methodology used for the Elizabeth Line discontinuity and/or adjustments for days of the week.

But I think that the numbers for 16/17 September and 23 September-4 October are what I'd be looking at to assess the level of rail usage. In the absence of a good explanation of why they are different I'd be disregarding 18-22 September.

 

[The exile]

No, I don't think that's what it means. The disruption I'm referring to was in 2025 not 2026. Elizabeth Line usage would have been very low on 18 September 2025 because the OHL was down, but "normal" on 18 September 2026, so that would show a big increase year on year. Disruption on the Elizabeth Line on its own is big enough to have an impact on the National aggregates.

I suspect that there may be something in the methodology that's producing the 18-22 September numbers but it needs a bit of research and I don't have time to do that now. This could be something related to the methodology used for the Elizabeth Line discontinuity and/or adjustments for days of the week.

But I think that the numbers for 16/17 September and 23 September-4 October are what I'd be looking at to assess the level of rail usage. In the absence of a good explanation of why they are different I'd be disregarding 18-22 September.

Interesting though, that the “without EL” figures show a very similar pattern.

Also - don’t we also need to be looking at what was going on in the equivalent September week in 2019?

 

[Magdalia]

don’t we also need to be looking at what was going on in the equivalent September week in 2019?

It would be nice, but the dataset seems to start in 2020 without revealing the underlying 2019 data used as the baseline. I couldn't find any unusual events on the forum.

So I looked at the csv file.

From 2022 onwards there is a blip in the second half of September every year, though on different dates as follows:

21-27/09/22
20-26/09/23
18-24/09/24
17-23/09/25

The blip doesn't stand out in 2020 or 2021, but that may be because the numbers are smaller.

The way the dates shift from year to year makes me suspect that there is some 7 day moving average in the methodology that is playing a part, in combination with something in the 2019 numbers.

So further research hasn't changed my mind on this assessment.

But I think that the numbers for 16/17 September and 23 September-4 October are what I'd be looking at to assess the level of rail usage. In the absence of a good explanation of why they are different I'd be disregarding 18-22 September.

 

[Bald Rick]

TfL strikes that time in 2025.