Rail usage

[Magdalia]

So more people opted to use train mid September, and then railway screwed up due to not securing wires properly.

Not good when encourage passengers back, then fail them

No, I don't think that's what it means. The disruption I'm referring to was in 2025 not 2026. Elizabeth Line usage would have been very low on 18 September 2025 because the OHL was down, but "normal" on 18 September 2026, so that would show a big increase year on year. Disruption on the Elizabeth Line on its own is big enough to have an impact on the National aggregates.

I suspect that there may be something in the methodology that's producing the 18-22 September numbers but it needs a bit of research and I don't have time to do that now. This could be something related to the methodology used for the Elizabeth Line discontinuity and/or adjustments for days of the week.

But I think that the numbers for 16/17 September and 23 September-4 October are what I'd be looking at to assess the level of rail usage. In the absence of a good explanation of why they are different I'd be disregarding 18-22 September.

 

[The exile]

No, I don't think that's what it means. The disruption I'm referring to was in 2025 not 2026. Elizabeth Line usage would have been very low on 18 September 2025 because the OHL was down, but "normal" on 18 September 2026, so that would show a big increase year on year. Disruption on the Elizabeth Line on its own is big enough to have an impact on the National aggregates.

I suspect that there may be something in the methodology that's producing the 18-22 September numbers but it needs a bit of research and I don't have time to do that now. This could be something related to the methodology used for the Elizabeth Line discontinuity and/or adjustments for days of the week.

But I think that the numbers for 16/17 September and 23 September-4 October are what I'd be looking at to assess the level of rail usage. In the absence of a good explanation of why they are different I'd be disregarding 18-22 September.

Interesting though, that the “without EL” figures show a very similar pattern.

Also - don’t we also need to be looking at what was going on in the equivalent September week in 2019?