Rail services to be increased on May 18th

[Jamesrob637]

Would it be manageable if staff took other break options in preference to using messrooms where possible? For instance on the unit they are going to work with it locked up?

In some locations could spare units be parked up in bays to be used for that purpose?

My mate who cleans Cross Country actually goes some of the way down on one train and picks up the hour-later arrival 20 minutes down the line every other hour, alternating with his colleague.

 

[andythebrave]

Not so... if you imagine a grid on the floor 2m by 2m, you'll have four people - one at each corner.

If it's then 1m separation, you'll have another four people, half way between each of the original four, plus a fifth extra in the middle of the grid.

Thus nine people where you would have previously had four, so more than doubling - but not quadrupling.

Indeed.
A bit simplistic this but if you imagine a long tube, like a carriage, made up of imaginary 2m squares then, cumulatively -
Cube no 2m space 1m space
1 4 9
2 6 15
3 8 21
4 10 27
5 12 33
6 14 39
7 16 45
8 18 51

The formula being y = 3x - 3 so in an infinitely long tube the density would approach 3x without ever actually reaching it.

It makes no difference if the grid were to be expanded in all directions; the same formula applies.

 

[Bald Rick]

Is the country ready for a increase in services seeing as on the Thameslink network apart from the odd peak service has been carrying fresh air mostly all day so do we really need to run more trains?

Why can't we just carry on with the existing timetable until September and look at stepping up from there?

Because demand is increasing now, albeit from a small base. And the Government’s lockdown exit strategy will see more and more people returning to work.

In these circumstances it is far better to have more capacity than demand than the other way round.

In any event the additional cost of lifting the service is peanuts in the scheme of things. Have a think about the cost base of the railway, and what costs are incurred by adding in perhaps 20% (complete guess) more services.

 

[bramling]

Because demand is increasing now, albeit from a small base. And the Government’s lockdown exit strategy will see more and more people returning to work.

In these circumstances it is far better to have more capacity than demand than the other way round.

In any event the additional cost of lifting the service is peanuts in the scheme of things. Have a think about the cost base of the railway, and what costs are incurred by adding in perhaps 20% (complete guess) more services.

So people return to work on the Wednesday, TOCs start increasing service from the following Monday. Yep some more good joined-up thinking there!

 

[matt_world2004]

Would it be manageable if staff took other break options in preference to using messrooms where possible? For instance on the unit they are going to work with it locked up?

In some locations could spare units be parked up in bays to be used for that purpose?

There is a shortage of break locations already in the public transport industry. Regularly when working on buses in winter I would have to go to McDonald's or Weatherspoons for a break. There are probably very few alternatives to a mess room at the moment.

I am dreading this continuing on to the winter because it is going to make my workplace very uncomfortable.

 

[andythebrave]

Apologies re my last. An ever expanding grid would give a formula of root y = 2 root x - 1.
This does approach a multiplier of 4, eg y = 1m x = 250500.25.

 

[andythebrave]

There is a shortage of break locations already in the public transport industry. Regularly when working on buses in winter I would have to go to McDonald's or Weatherspoons for a break. There are probably very few alternatives to a mess room at the moment.

I am dreading this continuing on to the winter because it is going to make my workplace very uncomfortable.

I never thought I'd miss McD etc but, boy, aren't their loos very inviting at times

 

[westv]

I read the other day that 25% of workers are furloughed and 40% of workers are now working from home. Assuming that those percentages didn't change then I'm assuming we might expect maybe 35% of workers to return to their place of work in the weeks to come.

 

[Bald Rick]

So people return to work on the Wednesday, TOCs start increasing service from the following Monday. Yep some more good joined-up thinking there!

Demand isnt, and hasn’t, all come back overnight - it’s coming back slowly, plenty of capacity now.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I read the other day that 25% of workers are furloughed and 40% of workers are now working from home. Assuming that those percentages didn't change then I'm assuming we might expect maybe 35% of workers to return to their place of work in the weeks to come.

I would imagine it would be a lot higher than that as companies would be keen to start making money again

Lots of jobs can't be done at home

 

[Islineclear3_1]

So people return to work on the Wednesday, TOCs start increasing service from the following Monday. Yep some more good joined-up thinking there!

I'm sure there will be a gradual reintroduction back to the workplace as firms finalise their plans

 

[westv]

I would imagine it would be a lot higher than that as companies would be keen to start making money again

Lots of jobs can't be done at home

There's no reason for the 40% WFH to return unless they really have to. Most won't as their workplaces won't have been set up yet.
How many of the 25% furloughed can be un-furloughed is unknown so I was guessing they would all carry on as is. That just leaves those who don't fit into either camp.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

On RTT, the 3tpd TPE Liverpool-Glasgow services seem to be back, and booked for 397s rather than 185s.
The services don't seem any faster.
Northbound trains run via St Helens Central (two of them stopping), southbound via Golborne (one of which stops at Lea Green).

Realtime Trains - Departures from Liverpool Lime Street

Realtime Trains provides live realtime running information for the Great British railway network using open data.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[Jimini]

Was this an intercity train because they haven't been doing this on local commuter services.

Yep, the hourly service from Paddington to Swansea.

 

[bramling]

Demand isnt, and hasn’t, all come back overnight - it’s coming back slowly, plenty of capacity now.

I know, it just seems poorly thought out. Given the concerns about people wanting space to distance, surely you’d make sure the extra capacity is there *before* people start returning, not potentially some days after.

Just using GN as an example the difference between the current Sunday service and a Saturday service at a typical station such as Hitchin is 3tph to 6tph, or in carriage terms an extra 30 carriages per hour. That’s quite a difference, especially when the current Sunday service doesn’t offer much in the way of extra capacity at what would be the traditional peak times (especially the morning peak).

Meanwhile there’s the continuing timetables saga on TfL, which shows no sign of being properly resolved, and predictably the media is full of reports of overcrowding this morning.

 

[Bletchleyite]

TfL is the biggest problem - and in many ways might be the only insoluble one. I can only hope that if there's another taking off of cases in London they just lock down London (e.g. stop TfL services) and not the rest of the country where it's far more practical for most people to drive instead.

I certainly think it's worth a go with masks being mandatory on the Tube. There's no other public transport like it in the UK where so many people are packed in so close together in such a small vehicle.

 

[yorksrob]

TfL is the biggest problem - and in many ways might be the only insoluble one. I can only hope that if there's another taking off of cases in London they just lock down London (e.g. stop TfL services) and not the rest of the country where it's far more practical for most people to drive instead.

I certainly think it's worth a go with masks being mandatory on the Tube. There's no other public transport like it in the UK where so many people are packed in so close together in such a small vehicle.

I agree with that. If experience shows that public transport in the rest of the country isn't experiencing problems to the same extent as TFL, it seems pointless to impose the same swingeing restrictions on other networks.

 

[111-111-1]

Would it be manageable if staff took other break options in preference to using messrooms where possible? For instance on the unit they are going to work with it locked up?

In some locations could spare units be parked up in bays to be used for that purpose?

Do you not think that the industry has not been looking at ensuring enough accommodation is available to allow social distancing?
There are very good reasons why staff need to go to mess rooms i.e. toilets, water. In most cases the train they work after their brake is not the one they work in and if the brake is in the mid point of a journey it will almost deffinaterly not be.

 

[111-111-1]

TfL is the biggest problem - and in many ways might be the only insoluble one. I can only hope that if there's another taking off of cases in London they just lock down London (e.g. stop TfL services) and not the rest of the country where it's far more practical for most people to drive instead.

Brilliant idea stop TfL services and stop the essential workers getting to work

 

[Staffordian]

Amusingly at the last election, Lib Dems proposed half price travel for journeys before 07.30. Not exactly helping their reputation as being the party for the out of touch middle classes; it is quite easy to check TfL statistics to see how busy early morning trains are!

Out of interest, what it the best place to find the source of the detailed TfL statistics on how busy early morning trains are ?
Although I haven't been able to track these down, I have found an interesting November 2019 article TfL published some tables about Tube Capacity and they are amazing on the CityMetric website.
The background is as follows :

Have you ever wondered just how busy the tube is as you’re sardined in every morning? Or which the quietest tube line is in the depths of night?

Well it turns out that Transport for London (TfL) holds this data and quietly released it a few weeks ago in response to a written question to Sadiq Khan from Conservative London Assembly member Tony Devenish. He asked about the capacity on the tube and TfL decided to publish the data it has in the form of three excellent tables which I’m sure the audience of CityMetric will be poring over for some time.

The 'three excellent tables' show tube utilisation by line by hour ;

'over half full' by line by hour:

and 'all seats taken' by line by hour:


To my mind, these present a fairly convincing argument for reducing fares prior to 0730, regardless of political persuasion.
Even considering the four busiest lines between 0600 and 0700, all have occupancy between 30% and 50% higher in the peak hour 0800-0900, i.e.
Bakerloo 0600-0700 64%, 0800-0900 95%
Central 0600-0700 66%, 0800-0900 116%
District 0600-0700 55%, 0800-0900 85%
Victoria 0600-0700 55%, 0800-0900 105%
and in normal times any measure to shift some of that usage earlier would be of benefit. Whether the same applies now, with many office workers working from home is another matter.

It is noticeable from the tables that the two lines with lowest utilisation between 0600 and 0700 are the Metropolitan and Waterloo and City at 25% and 15% respectively. As these are perhaps the most likely to be carrying 'out of touch, middle class' types from Middlesex and Surrey, it would be understandable if they were less aware of how busy other lines were at this time, but i don't believe that alters the argument for reducing fares prior to 0730 to balance the load.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

TfL is the biggest problem - and in many ways might be the only insoluble one. I can only hope that if there's another taking off of cases in London they just lock down London (e.g. stop TfL services) and not the rest of the country where it's far more practical for most people to drive instead.

I certainly think it's worth a go with masks being mandatory on the Tube. There's no other public transport like it in the UK where so many people are packed in so close together in such a small vehicle.

Quick sample check of European countries reveals masks mandatory in Vienna, Belgium public transport, Paris metro, Berlin U Bahn, S Bahn & buses with there being no suggesting that trains have restricted capacity but much about be patient whilst we manage passenger flows in/out of stations.

So i get the science that masks aren't fool proof but they provide additional mitigation but like everything in the UK we've lost sight of managing risk now and that anything less than zero probability is deemed unacceptable. i.e wearing masks, not face coverings, should be mandatory as soon as you enter any TfL station then some relaxation of the 2m rule should be possible.

 

[Bald Rick]

I know, it just seems poorly thought out. Given the concerns about people wanting space to distance, surely you’d make sure the extra capacity is there *before* people start returning, not potentially some days after.

Just using GN as an example the difference between the current Sunday service and a Saturday service at a typical station such as Hitchin is 3tph to 6tph, or in carriage terms an extra 30 carriages per hour. That’s quite a difference, especially when the current Sunday service doesn’t offer much in the way of extra capacity at what would be the traditional peak times (especially the morning peak).

Meanwhile there’s the continuing timetables saga on TfL, which shows no sign of being properly resolved, and predictably the media is full of reports of overcrowding this morning.

Firstly, there is more than enough capacity on the current service to deal with current demand. On the assumption that demand wasn’t going to suddenly appear (in the same way it took 3 weeks to fall off), it is a reasonable assumption that any increase in demand for this week could be safely accommodated on the existing service.

Secondly, it is not a safe assumption that the rail companies were given sufficient notice of what was required of them, or what the lockdown exit plan was, to be able to replan services any earlier.

 

[yorkie]

We have separate threads for things like social distancing, wearing of masks etc.

Other relevant threads include:

• Is it time to relax the 2m social distancing rule? (WHO guidance is 1m)
• Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?
• Cloth masks, scarves and bandanas to be 'encouraged' with no compulsion

This thread is specifically discussing the increase in services running.

Thanks

 

[Carlisle]

From the morning TV ITV GMB were at Manchester Piccadilly this around 7am.

I had the feeling they were expecting to film crowds and distancing problems but there were very few people there.

Not surprised, perhaps London’s slightly different but elsewhere I can’t foresee too many crowded trains until town centre retail, attractions &/or schools start reopening in any meaningful way

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Demand isnt, and hasn’t, all come back overnight - it’s coming back slowly, plenty of capacity now.

Maximum load noted on a 12 car 700 around 1600 was 15 passengers. Terminating locals at St Albans City empty (but one assumes they did some work further south) - plenty of room for now.

 

[Silverlinky]

Different areas, different demand. I've heard that a LNW train arrived at Euston this morning with approximately 190 passengers on board. That doesn't sound a lot for a 12 car with 700 seats but its way in excess of Shapps "10% capacity".

So two solutions......stop people from travelling, or put on extra trains to spread the load out.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Different areas, different demand. I've heard that a LNW train arrived at Euston this morning with approximately 190 passengers on board. That doesn't sound a lot for a 12 car with 700 seats but its way in excess of Shapps "10% capacity".

So two solutions......stop people from travelling, or put on extra trains to spread the load out.

Interesting that West Coast South (a route I know very well) , - is delivering more journeys - but something like 35% of man line business comes from WFJ / Bushey and Harrow to Euston , so maybe people who have to travel from these places are going AC versus DC / Bakerloo.

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

Apologies re my last. An ever expanding grid would give a formula of root y = 2 root x - 1.
This does approach a multiplier of 4, eg y = 1m x = 250500.25.

No need to apologise. I'm probably not alone in not having a clue what you are on about, but I bet you would be great to have around when buying a train ticket for a complex journey.

 

[scotrail158713]

No need to apologise. I'm probably not alone in not having a clue what you are on about, but I bet you would be great to have around when buying a train ticket for a complex journey.

I’m the same. I enjoy maths and thought for a good few minutes about it, but couldn’t for the life of me understand it.

 

[Horizon22]

Firstly, there is more than enough capacity on the current service to deal with current demand. On the assumption that demand wasn’t going to suddenly appear (in the same way it took 3 weeks to fall off), it is a reasonable assumption that any increase in demand for this week could be safely accommodated on the existing service.

Secondly, it is not a safe assumption that the rail companies were given sufficient notice of what was required of them, or what the lockdown exit plan was, to be able to replan services any earlier.

Not sure about that on some Tube services. Especially the Central line.

In addition suggestions for locking down "London" aren't particularly sensible considering the amount of services that cross the boundaries; many suburban services have an origin outside London. TfL (the tube specially) is going to have a almost impossible time. You can't realistically socially distance and how do you enforce it? Stop people boarding at a certain threshold - How is that fair to people further down the line? Restrict passengers coming into the station - so now you have crowds outside stations? Enforce a quota system - who sets those rules and what would they be? Add extra trains - but what if demand continues to be focussed around the peak? Do we prevent people boarding trains with a first-come-first serve.

Lots of questions that haven't been asked much before, besides possibly the Olympics "demand management" system but its a poor comparison.