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Rail renationalisation- do you support it?

Do you think the railways should be renationalised?


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jon0844

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Largely to protect the driverless cars from the vehicles controlled by illogical humans.

Exactly. Hence why driverless cars can't really exist in the next few years, unless the Government is holding back on telling us that by 2020 all normal cars are banned from the road.

But even if you do eventually make it so ALL cars must be able to drive themselves and have all the necessary sensors, plus the connectivity to communicate with each other, you have to consider other factors - such as people on the pavements, animals, deliberate attempts to try and cause a car to crash and so on.

The solutions now seem to be to drive rather slow, and simply stop if there's any danger. Then perhaps stay there, whereas a real person can think beyond the programming and maybe break the rules. In fact, I have no idea what happens if there's an accident ahead, or a van parks illegally to unload, and blocks a road.

Many tests so far are in environments where such issues are slight. How does a driverless Uber cab get around in London? How does a car manage driving on the M25 with ordinary motorists all over the place?

Where we are now, the technology is pretty much there so that's almost the easy bit.

And to get on topic, these are similar issues over whether all trains could one day be driverless..
 
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najaB

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The solutions now seem to be to drive rather slow, and simply stop if there's any danger.
Two or three years ago that was the case, now they are doing highway speeds. There has been a *lot* of development work ploughed into this area.
 

jon0844

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Two or three years ago that was the case, now they are doing highway speeds. There has been a *lot* of development work ploughed into this area.

I know there's been the idea of making the car drive a bit more aggressively, but there are many scenarios that need to be properly tested.

Not a relatively straight interstate, or towns with wide open roads. British roads with parking that makes a two way road effectively one way, with people having to pull in behind cars or even pull into side roads or mount the pavement.

That's what I'd like to see sorted.

How does a normal car driver flash a driverless car to proceed? How does a driverless car reverse to pull in when it has realised it has gone into the way of an oncoming vehicle?

Even things like how a driverless car negotiates pot holes on our dodgy roads. Would it just crash into one? Would it slam the brakes on and cause an accident?

It's a bit like the age old problem/cost for BT to run the last mile. I think autonomous vehicles are almost there, but that last mile is going to take many years to solve.
 

AlterEgo

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I'd forgotten it was anathema to mention driverless cars on this forum. Where is Zoe these days?
 

highdyke

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Well we should really be talking about driverless trains to cut costs, as rail is much easier to automate compared to road. We've not resolved who shuts the doors, contacts the signaller yet...This all may take some time to resolve....

The railway industry is at the forefront of national debate at the moment. The latest scandal emerged when Jeremy Corbyn filmed a short clip on the floor of a Virgin East Coast train bemoaning the lack of space before returning to his seat 45 minutes into the journey. On top of this, there are strikes planned for the coming weeks, such as the train guard strike on Southern Rail, whilst strikes on Virgin East Coast and Eurostar have been temporarily suspended. The one thing agreed upon across the political spectrum with regards to railways is that the current service is not working and giving the best value for money. Yet this is where the consensus ends.

It was John Major’s government which privatised British Rail, the state-owned railway operator, in 1993. This has led to a marked improvement in the operation of trains in the UK. Since privatisation we have witnessed a doubling in the number of passengers and train companies have become net contributors to the government, a far cry from British Rail’s billion-pound deficit. However, the process did not fully privatise the railway services. Instead, it created a hybrid system where the state-owned Network Rail still controls the railway tracks, while franchises were allowed to bid for fixed railway routes which created entrenched monopolies, such as Virgin. Only 25 franchises operate on Network Rail and the fragmented ownership of train companies and rail tracks leads to ‘transaction costs,’ such as the large numbers of staff needed to deal with the various layers of the industry. This hinders the rail companies’ ability to expand their production line. The subsequent rise in commuters resulted in overcrowding and price rises – Britain has the most expensive rail fares in Europe. A TransportFocus Rail Passenger Satisfaction Survey earlier this year found that just 23% of peak time commuters in London and the South East thought their ticket was value for money.

Despite this, nationalisation is definitely not the answer. Corbyn’s proposal would be inefficient and incredibly costly to the taxpayer, and it would establish an even larger monopoly over the rail industry. The state already provides subsidies to the tune of £5bn a year and Network Rail is already in £40bn debt, expected to rise to £50bn by 2020. The dividends paid to train companies last year reached £222m, a drop in the ocean in comparison to the £13.6bn annual running costs.Nationalisation would add more than £10 billion overnight to the budget deficit, increasing the deficit by 15%, and would undoubtedly give unions, such as the RMT, greater power to carry out further industrial action.

The way forward is to break up the franchise monopolies, which dominate the market share, and open up the rail tracks to more competition. CPS research fellow Tony Lodge published a highly influential report in 2013 on the freight industry, which is characterised by increased competition, and the East Coast Main Line (ECML), the route on which Grand Central and Hull Trains compete. He concluded that the freight trains and ECML performed markedly better. Rail freight has an open access policy and does not receive subsidies, yet it has reduced unit cost by 35% in the decade after privatisation and boosted freight traffic by 50% until 2013. ECML’s open access policy has seen passenger journeys increase by 42%, whilst rail fares are lower despite not receiving any government subsidy. In the TransportFocus poll, Grand Central and Hull Trains finished in first and second place respectively for overall passenger satisfaction.

In addition to a competitive railway policy, the government should also privatise the loss-making Network Rail so that the same company owns the track and runs the trains. This would save the government billions of pounds. The wider economic benefits are there for all to see. Cities which are located on open access routes, such as Sunderland, have seen a boost in private sector investment whereas Blackpool, which is not on an open access route, haemorrhaged 14,000 jobs between 2004 and 2015. Yet obstacles still lie ahead. The Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) has continually prevented the development of open access routes and the government sees monopolistic franchises as the best way to reduce its subsidy. However, the public subsidy has continued to increase year on year. A more competitive policy would go a long way to alleviate the problems our railways face.

http://www.cps.org.uk/blog/q/date/2...e-solution-to-britain-s-inadequate-railways/?

More or less agree with this except public, private and mutuals should be allow to compete on open access with levies and PSO grants/concessions. Unless you are going to privatise the roads, NR should be run like the highways agency.
 
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Railsigns

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More or less agree with this except public, private and mutuals should be allow to compete on open access with levies and PSO grants/concessions.

You more or less agree with it? It's complete and utter b*ll*cks!

Take this, for example:

train companies have become net contributors to the government, a far cry from British Rail’s billion-pound deficit

Er, yes, because B.R. did more than just run train services. It also operated and maintained the rail network with its mere billion-pound annual subsidy, a fraction of what the rail industry as a whole receives now.
 

Phil.

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I wonder how many of those pro nationalisation people were born before 1980 to give them a clear memory of just what B.R. was like?
Happily, we've moved on nowadays and services have never been better.
 

Railsigns

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I wonder how many of those pro nationalisation people were born before 1980 to give them a clear memory of just what B.R. was like?
Happily, we've moved on nowadays and services have never been better.

Yes, it's amazing what a difference tens of billions of pounds of public money can make.
 

J-2739

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I wonder how many of those pro nationalisation people were born before 1980 to give them a clear memory of just what B.R. was like?
Happily, we've moved on nowadays and services have never been better.

BR was underfunded back then, so comparing nationalisation from back then to what it would be like now is a bit unfair.
 

DT611

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You more or less agree with it? It's complete and utter b*ll*cks!

that's an understatement. Especially in relation to the nonsense of re-privatizing the infrastructure, something which failed last time it was tried.
 

keith1879

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No point in renationalising now. The whole process would be appallingly costly and would mainly benefit managers and analysts with international consultancy firms. Most of the attampted comparisons between BR and now fall down due to the fact that it is almost impossible to allow for the all the differences between the two sets of external circumstances.

One thing I would say is that private ownership has never delivered innovation on the scale that BR did and I would like to see that addressed somehow.
 

teslatech

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My biggest worry over renationalisation is that I simply don't trust a government enough.

Suppose labour won the next general election and Corbyn became pm. He might do a fine job of nationalisation of the railways. But what of the governments that followed? I think that you only have to look at the cuts to things like our NHS or the way the education system as been used as a political tool. To see that a state owned railway is perhaps not in the long term best interests of regular rail users or indeed those who work in the industry.

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Railsigns

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My biggest worry over renationalisation is that I simply don't trust a government enough.

Suppose labour won the next general election and Corbyn became pm. He might do a fine job of nationalisation of the railways. But what of the governments that followed? I think that you only have to look at the cuts to things like our NHS or the way the education system as been used as a political tool. To see that a state owned railway is perhaps not in the long term best interests of regular rail users or indeed those who work in the industry.

What makes you think that the railways in their present state, and more reliant on government funding than ever before, are immune from future cuts?

In those circumstances, it's better to have an efficient publicly owned railway that can achieve more with less.
 

teslatech

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What makes you think that the railways in their present state, and more reliant on government funding than ever before, are immune from future cuts?

In those circumstances, it's better to have an efficient publicly owned railway that can achieve more with less.
Million dollar question there though, would we get a more efficient railway?

I'm not opposed to the concept, clearly other countries make it work. But I'm not convinced. Not when as I say you see how state owned institutions like the NHS are treated.

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Robertj21a

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What makes you think that the railways in their present state, and more reliant on government funding than ever before, are immune from future cuts?

In those circumstances, it's better to have an efficient publicly owned railway that can achieve more with less.

Surely, that's the basic problem ? Most people in this country are likely to equate 'publicly owned' with inefficiency that is very unlikely to achieve even the same levels of service, let alone any crazy idea of achieving 'more with less'.
 

highdyke

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My biggest worry over renationalisation is that I simply don't trust a government enough.

Traditionally priorities for political parties have been..

The NHS
Education
Defence
Social Welfare
Industry/Agriculture
Policing
Housing
Environment
International development
Road Transport
Air Transport

and er

Rail Transport

Labour of the 1960s and 70s, 80s wanted everyone to have a car, same with the Tories

In the 90s the environment and congestion finally meant some attention was given to public transport, but this was mostly trams (Tories), buses (New Labour) who wanted to look after C2sDs, Students and Pensioners, not mostly middle class rail users.

The only reason rail is getting attention now is since the mid 90s lifestyles have changed and lots of growth has occurred. It's far from the top list of voters wishes though and many people don't see why they should subsidise middle class commuters, businessmen on HS2. It's a shame, because transport is important and not very well understood, and is essential for business and jobs, but that's the political reality.

This explains why the Tories are more keen on rail than Labour, of late, most traditional Labour voters rarely use rail and couldn't give a stuff. Corbyn is only interested because he's an enthusiast himself. It won't stop the unions being anti-Tory though. Apart from Barbara Castle in the 60s who put together the idea of the social railway and PTEs because of public pressure (and who still managed to close 2040 miles of railway, after her predecessor mostly carried out the wishes of Beeching) there's little evidence Labour has ever been interested.
 
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Andrewlong

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My biggest worry over renationalisation is that I simply don't trust a government enough.

Suppose labour won the next general election and Corbyn became pm. He might do a fine job of nationalisation of the railways. But what of the governments that followed? I think that you only have to look at the cuts to things like our NHS or the way the education system as been used as a political tool. To see that a state owned railway is perhaps not in the long term best interests of regular rail users or indeed those who work in the industry.

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my concern would be that in the unlikely event of a Corbyn government, he would simply take back franchises under DOR to tick the 'nationalisation' box but wouldn't do much else except irritate the private sector by imposing unnecessary bureaucracy on them. And when the money ran out as the economy dived, investment projects would be culled.
 

najaB

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If the goal of re-nationalisation is to reduce costs, I would start with the ROSCOs. Stock allocation and utilisation is already pretty much specified from above by the DfT so what is the actual point of a ROSCO other than taking the asset off the government's books?
 

coppercapped

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If the goal of re-nationalisation is to reduce costs, I would start with the ROSCOs. Stock allocation and utilisation is already pretty much specified from above by the DfT so what is the actual point of a ROSCO other than taking the asset off the government's books?

Before one makes an investment decision there has to be an analysis as to whether the return is worth spending the capital amount involved - unless you blindly trust your instincts.

Let us assume that the proposal does meet the acceptance criteria for the investment.

If the investment is to be made by a Government body the amount and timing of the money depends on the Government's priorities - not yours or the railways' business priorities, but the Government's priorities.

This means that in the Treasury's planning on how to spend the money raised by taxation - what is available has been earmarked for pensions or an expansion of higher education or whatever, but not sufficient has been allocated to transport in this year's or next year's budget to cover this proposal. Or the proposal exceeds this year's budget but the money will be available in X years time. Or that only Y% of the money can be made available - or any combination of many reasons. A nationalised ROSCO would be forbidden to borrow the money on the open markets.

Now the ROSCOs are private organisations so they can borrow the cash needed if the business case stands up to analysis. They don't have to wait for the Treasury to allocate funds.

If you don't believe me - look what has happened to Network Rail since it was reclassified as a public body. Why do you think all the spending on electrification, re-signalling, enhancements of routes and so on has been delayed? Until the reclassification Network Rail was borrowing some £2 billion a year in addition to the cash allocated for the CP5 enhancements. Although some of the borrowings were used to cover overspends on enhancements the bulk of this cash is now no longer available. As NR now has to live within the Treasury defined cash expenditure limits and is forbidden to borrow money many of the projects - as has often been discussed here - are being delayed.

So, what do you want? Nationalised ROSCOs which are artificially limited in the size and timing of their budgets leading to later, slower and smaller deliveries of new trains or ROSCOs with access to capital markets and who are capable of supplying complete fleets of new trains quickly?

Nationalisation will not lead to lower costs. The knock-on effects of limited capital will not only be slower infrastructure improvements but also more life extension of old stock. Both of these will raise operating and maintenance costs compared to new kit regardless of the difference between the interest rates Governments have to pay and those that private companies pay.
 
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najaB

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Before one makes an investment decision...
Thanks for the reasoned reply, so rare to get them around here. :)

In light of the points you raise, perhaps then the thing to do would be to have a single state-owned ROSCO that was run on a commercial but not-for-profit basis.
 

coppercapped

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Thanks for the reasoned reply, so rare to get them around here. :)

In light of the points you raise, perhaps then the thing to do would be to have a single state-owned ROSCO that was run on a commercial but not-for-profit basis.

Thank you!

And what would be the point of having a single state-owned ROSCO? Why one company? How can a state-owned company be run commercially - the management priorities are very different? Profits are essential - I rather think that what you mean is 'not for dividend'. (If the annual operating expenses are greater than the income then there is no profit but the organisation will need a continual feed of funds from somewhere to fill the gap. If it's a state-owned company that 'somewhere' is the tax payer. I don't think that is what you want.)

I think that you still don't understand the constraints on a state-owned company - if it's state owned it cannot borrow money on its own account.

Borrowings by any stated owned, or effectively state owned or controlled, organisation count towards the National Debt. The Treasury cannot and will not allow this to be increased except through the Treasury's own actions. If state borrowing is not controlled by the Chancellor of the Exchequer there is not a snowball's chance in hell of (a) trying to control or limit the growth in the Debt (which is essentially money we have borrowed from our grandchildren) or (b) the Government continuing being able to pay a low rate of interest on the money it has borrowed from home and foreign banks and investment funds as it will be seen as not being in control of its own destiny.
 
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najaB

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Thank you!
Yes, I did mean not for dividend, sorry. It of course makes sense that you need to make a net operating income.

The reason I suggest that there should only be one ROSCO is because there isn't really a competitive market for rolling stock. They don't change operators that frequently and when they do, the nature of franchises means that the inter-operator movements are pretty easy to figure out. There doesn't seem to be any benefit derived by having more than one.
 

coppercapped

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Yes, I did mean not for dividend, sorry. It of course makes sense that you need to make a net operating income.

The reason I suggest that there should only be one ROSCO is because there isn't really a competitive market for rolling stock. They don't change operators that frequently and when they do, the nature of franchises means that the inter-operator movements are pretty easy to figure out. There doesn't seem to be any benefit derived by having more than one.

A bit of analysis helps...:)

There are six aspects to the ROSCOs' business:

  1. Supply of rolling stock to the TOCs
  2. Supply of rolling stock to the FOCs
  3. Procurement of new rolling stock for the TOCs
  4. Procurement of new rolling stock for the FOCs
  5. On-going engineering support and mid-life updates for the TOCs
  6. On-going engineering support and mid-life updates for the FOCs

You are correct regarding point 1 - there is little movement of stock between TOCs because of issues of the training and experience of train and maintenance crew, depot equipment and spares holdings and in some cases of route clearance for stock. However there are some changes, mostly at franchise end dates, where stock comes up for re-allocation and having a choice at this point can keep the ROSCOs honest.

The FOCs would really dislike having to deal with only one supplier - the Class 66 for example is on the books of 3 of the ROSCOs so the users can look round for the best deal.

Points 3 and 4 - procurement I have dealt with in my earlier posts.

Points 4 and 5 - very important activities contributing to better reliability and reduced costs of ownership and keeping the products fresh. If an organisation gets too big there tends to be a loss of focus and a drift towards 'this is what you get' rather than 'I think this is what you want'.

So - on balance more is better than one.
 
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najaB

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A bit of analysis helps...:)
...
The FOCs would really dislike having to deal with only one supplier - the Class 66 for example is on the books of 3 of the ROSCOs so the users can look round for the best deal.
I didn't consider the needs of FOCs - I can see how the market is more competitive for them.
Points 4 and 5 - very important activities contributing to better reliability and reduced costs of ownership and keeping the products fresh. If an organisation gets too big there tends to be a loss of focus and a drift towards 'this is what you get' rather than 'I think this is what you want'.
I'll counter that with the ever popular 'economies of scale' - it gets thrown around a lot, but in this case I think it's a valid point. There are benefits to being able to make larger purchases further in advance and having a common pool of components. And there's nothing to say that being larger *has* to result in a drift towards mediocrity.
 

Railsigns

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Fixed that for you...:D

No, Paul, all you've done is taken my post and made it say the opposite. That's not a particularly intelligent thing to do, unless of course you can produce evidence which proves that publicly owned railways are less efficient. I doubt that you can, when the official ORR figures show that B.R. made do with a fraction of the subsidies thrown at the privatised industry today, and B.R. didn't have £40 billion of debt.
 
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