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Rail renationalisation- do you support it?

Do you think the railways should be renationalised?


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absolutelymilk

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Predictable response. You could say the same about a government sponsored report.

As I said before, if anyone disagrees with the report, they're free to explain where the authors got it wrong. I've yet to see anyone do so.

As AlterEgo said, it is a very long report and it is difficult to check the facts without being provided with extra detail. The big "extra costs" of a privatised railway according to the report (on p.18) are:

Excess interest payment on NR debt

The excess interest payments by NR were due to the fact that it was not classified as part of the public sector - I believe it is now and so this should not be an issue anymore.

Cost of interfaces between TOCs and NR
No detail is given here about why this would be significantly cheaper in a nationalised (and presumably sectorised) system. They give a single example (delay attribution) which has been discussed on here extensively and most people agree that a nationalised system would still need a considerable amount of people involved in this process. The report however assumes that a nationalised system would have none of these costs at all.

The cost of NR outsourcing
The report assumes that the saving would be equal to the profit margin of the contractors and does not mention any possible benefit from outsourcing.

TOC dividends
Similarly, the report assumes that nationalised TOCs would be just as efficient and therefore their profit margins would be recouped by the Treasury, without mentioning any benefit from the profit motive for the TOCs.

ROSCO dividends
The report does not mention the cost of buying the assets of ROSCOs at all, which would probably wipe out the benefit of not paying out dividends
 
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Philip Phlopp

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As AlterEgo said, it is a very long report and it is difficult to check the facts without being provided with extra detail. The big "extra costs" of a privatised railway according to the report (on p.18) are:



The excess interest payments by NR were due to the fact that it was not classified as part of the public sector - I believe it is now and so this should not be an issue anymore.


No detail is given here about why this would be significantly cheaper in a nationalised (and presumably sectorised) system. They give a single example (delay attribution) which has been discussed on here extensively and most people agree that a nationalised system would still need a considerable amount of people involved in this process. The report however assumes that a nationalised system would have none of these costs at all.


The report assumes that the saving would be equal to the profit margin of the contractors and does not mention any possible benefit from outsourcing.


Similarly, the report assumes that nationalised TOCs would be just as efficient and therefore their profit margins would be recouped by the Treasury, without mentioning any benefit from the profit motive for the TOCs.


The report does not mention the cost of buying the assets of ROSCOs at all, which would probably wipe out the benefit of not paying out dividends

Debt

The debt issue has resolved itself going forward and Network Rail can, in theory, fund itself through Treasury debt at a negative interest rate of 10 year debt. The historical debt is still issued and valid, and until it has been redeemed and replaced with proper UK Government debt, not the slightly wishy-washy Network Rail Government backed debt, they'll be stuck paying the higher interest rate cost.

TOC vs NR costs

Delay Attribution is ripe for major overhaul - if you take the profit and loss motive out of the system and use it purely to focus on weaknesses within the railway system, you would need maybe a quarter of the staff and the end result isn't a money-go-round, but properly identified problems on the network and ways to resolve them which can reduce delay repay payments.

It might be the case that a certain class of train is more vulnerable to damage (using the bird example) and instead of money going round to cover the failure, the issue is identified and it's decided to modify the rolling stock instead. The type of small engineering modification which might not make sense when NR will cover the cost of the failure, but when the focus on solely on stopping it happening, and we're not hamstrung by short franchises, it's the type of thing we would see happening.

There's also things like station maintenance, differences in ticketing systems, and procurement costs. If you were to make Network Rail responsible for all of that, there's big procurement cost savings to be made. It also saves the eternal rebranding vinyl and paint game, and thinking about winter, when stations are managed by different TOCs who do things like salting platforms and pavements, two and three teams from different TOCs can be doing work within a short distance of each other. Duplication and triplication of effort.

Controllers and relationship managing between NR and TOCs is another area ripe for cutting - do you really think we need London Overground, Virgin Trains and London Midland all with their own teams liasing with Network Rail around the lower WCML and Euston ? They've all got their own staff at Euston too, their own ticket machines and passengers get passed from pillar to post if they have issues with another operators ticket machines.

Outsourcing

There's nothing wrong with outsourcing if it's a cheaper way to run a business or service, or they can do something you can't do in house. The core task of a railway is to run a railway, not paint stations, clean windows or fix computers - there's nothing wrong with outsourcing some roles to dedicated, specialist contractors, saving money and getting a better result for the £ you spend.

Profit

The profit motive is valid, but there's a lot of easy money to be made on the railway that's just too damn complicated and risky right now.

Just think, a proper joined up railway could have Gatwick Express or Great Northern Class 387 stock borrowed on a weekend by Western region for a rugby match at Cardiff, running along the GWML out of Paddington, instead of sat on a depot being unused. British Rail made a good profit just by focusing on moving as many passengers as they could as efficiently as they could.

I don't know if a nationalised railway would be as profitable per passenger, but I see no reason why it wouldn't be more profitable all in.

Rolling stock

Buying out the ROSCOs with cheap government debt and putting the dividends back into the system to cover the borrowing costs isn't an issue, just set it up as a not for profit company.
 

HowardGWR

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Nationalisation in what sort of format?

"Would you like to buy a house?"

"Maybe - can I have a look at it first?"

"No."

Brexiteer syndrome.

Indeed!

I've voted 'don't care' having disagreed with the premise that 'the railways' weren't already nationalised, in an earlier posting. So that choice seemed the only way to take part.

Whether you put certain activities out to contractors or have own employees, or own or lease, seems to me to be a discussion of a nuance.

It's the regulation issue that is most important to tax payers and voters.
 

absolutelymilk

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Rolling stock

Buying out the ROSCOs with cheap government debt and putting the dividends back into the system to cover the borrowing costs isn't an issue, just set it up as a not for profit company.

Yes, the dividends would probably cover the borrowing cost. However the report argues that we would get back all of the money from dividends, while ignoring the borrowing costs.

Just think, a proper joined up railway could have Gatwick Express or Great Northern Class 387 stock borrowed on a weekend by Western region for a rugby match at Cardiff, running along the GWML out of Paddington, instead of sat on a depot being unused.

Is there any reason this couldn't happen now? i.e. could operators not have a mutual agreement to lend each other stock in situations like this (or be forced to by the government)?
 

HH

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Predictable response. You could say the same about a government sponsored report.

As I said before, if anyone disagrees with the report, they're free to explain where the authors got it wrong. I've yet to see anyone do so.

Sir Humphrey had wise words about government sponsored reports.

Pay my fees and I'll be glad to detail where the authors got it wrong. It's not a small job.
 

ChiefPlanner

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Is there any reason this couldn't happen now? i.e. could operators not have a mutual agreement to lend each other stock in situations like this (or be forced to by the government)?[/QUOTE]

BR could manage widespread weekend and special cascades of stock for special events due to the fact it was a combined organisation which bore its own risks for social purposes. (which is why - back in the day - some of my 47's were leased out from freight to work additional Paddington to Paignton etc (amongst many others) - the deal was to get the loco(s) back by 0600 Monday latest with a full tank !) - West Midlands DMU's used to work to the North Wales Coast and NSE LHCS stock worked to Aberystwyth on Summer Sats with a freight electric to Wolves and a freight loco forward. Toton 31's and 20's worked to Skegness etc. Train heating clearly not needed in the height of summer.

Charges (paper credits) were issued for "hire" , and the borrower had to arrange proper cleaning etc. All marginal.

Today - you need - a Safety Case , Access and Vehicle rights , Station Access and full safety compliance. ROSCO leases in any case , stop it happening. <(

End of an era in 1994.
 

Railsigns

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Therefore we're left with considering the provenance of the report.

It was commissioned by trade unions, and its main audience is trade union members.

So? Trade union members are neither politicians who are prone to corruption nor company directors out to make a quick buck, but just ordinary people trying to make a living while protecting their rights in the workplace.
 

AlterEgo

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So? Trade union members are neither politicians who are prone to corruption nor company directors out to make a quick buck, but just ordinary people trying to make a living while protecting their rights in the workplace.

Well, the sole purpose of unions is to protect their members' interests, pay, welfare and rights. This is fine.

But, quite how a report commissioned by unions can be seen as unbiased or providing a realistic standpoint is beyond me.

Unions are dogmatically pro-nationalisation (but don't tell the members it'll mean weaker Union muscle, stunted pay and large redundancies!!), so it's hardly surprising that the report they commissioned is dogmatically pro-nationalisation. Oddly enough the report contains only three sentences about industrial relations, and the relevance of the cost of railways thereof.

Equally, you can apply the same critique to government reports. Guess what - they support privatised railways!

(Also chuckled at the idea that union members aren't making a quick buck, Mick Cash and Mick Whelan are on £120,000 a year...again no issue with this but they're the same as the people they hate, you know...)
 

HH

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Yes, the dividends would probably cover the borrowing cost. However the report argues that we would get back all of the money from dividends, while ignoring the borrowing costs.

Is there any reason this couldn't happen now? i.e. could operators not have a mutual agreement to lend each other stock in situations like this (or be forced to by the government)?

Quite. Plenty of other holes, but minds won't be changed so no point in wasting any more on 't.
 

Philip Phlopp

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Quite. Plenty of other holes, but minds won't be changed so no point in wasting any more on 't.

It's far from a hole - Porterbrook has a corporate debt of £2.7bn and it's costing the firm £110m per year just to service that debt, on top of which it's paying out between £70m and £100m a year in dividends to its corporate owners.

If Porterbrook was bought by 'British Rail' and funded using Government debt, the dividend would more than cover the £2bn it would cost to buy out Porterbrook, leaving an additional £110m (or slightly more) available to purchase additional new stock, to improve the existing stock, or just to reduce the cost of operating the railways exactly as today.

If that's repeated across Eversholt, Angel, and the smaller and specialised leasing companies such as Beacon Rail Leasing, Agility Trains and Cross London Trains, I'd estimate on a like-for-like basis, based on current Government debt, a saving in running costs of £250m to £300m per year increasing yearly until the borrowing used to buy each ROSCO is paid down over a 10 to 20 year period.

It's generally always going to be cheaper for Government to borrow to buy new trains than it is for a ROSCO to finance through the financial markets and pay higher interest rates. The yield on Porterbrook's 15 year debt is 4.662% whilst UK Debt for 20 years is -0.974%.
 
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I think it would start badly and get steadily worse. The system we have is by no means perfect but the alternative is unthinkable.
 

WelshBluebird

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Is there any reason this couldn't happen now? i.e. could operators not have a mutual agreement to lend each other stock in situations like this (or be forced to by the government)?

Unless it is money making, what reason would they have to do so? Especially as doing so would add wear and tear and mean units would have to be sent for maintenance more often.

That is the one of my main issues with the current situation we have. You have a situation where money rules all. The same reason why XC have HST's at their disposal but sat doing nothing the majority of the time - it costs them more money.

Of course, especially under a Tory government (and probably under whatever government), even if the railways were nationalised we wouldn't see any difference to the "money trumps all" motto.
 

LateThanNever

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It's far from a hole - Porterbrook has a corporate debt of £2.7bn and it's costing the firm £110m per year just to service that debt, on top of which it's paying out between £70m and £100m a year in dividends to its corporate owners.

If Porterbrook was bought by 'British Rail' and funded using Government debt, the dividend would more than cover the £2bn it would cost to buy out Porterbrook, leaving an additional £110m (or slightly more) available to purchase additional new stock, to improve the existing stock, or just to reduce the cost of operating the railways exactly as today.

If that's repeated across Eversholt, Angel, and the smaller and specialised leasing companies such as Beacon Rail Leasing, Agility Trains and Cross London Trains, I'd estimate on a like-for-like basis, based on current Government debt, a saving in running costs of £250m to £300m per year increasing yearly until the borrowing used to buy each ROSCO is paid down over a 10 to 20 year period.

It's generally always going to be cheaper for Government to borrow to buy new trains than it is for a ROSCO to finance through the financial markets and pay higher interest rates. The yield on Porterbrook's 15 year debt is 4.662% whilst UK Debt for 20 years is -0.974%.

Quite so.

But even better is to realise that Britain is a money issuer so it has no need to borrow money at all.
That is why it was able to create £375BILLION as Quantitative Easing.
An increase in the money supply of just 400% at the time.
And inflation is less than 1%!
How so?
Because the economy doesn't work as economists and politcians tell us!
See Money Creation in the Modern Economy downloadable as a PDF from the BoE website, or the new Economics Foundation Book on "Where Money Comes From" to know how money works. We're 'borrowing' to keep bankers - and probably pensioners- happy!
 

Philip Phlopp

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Of course, especially under a Tory government (and probably under whatever government), even if the railways were nationalised we wouldn't see any difference to the "money trumps all" motto.

A fully nationalised railway would need to meet tough financial targets, but how it meets those targets would be at the discretion of management.

It couldn't be a return to the British Rail days where expenditure was really cut to the bone, and efficiency became scrimping and saving, but there's no reason why a nationalised system couldn't deliver the same quality of results as we see today but with less taxpayer support and more services/stock in use.
 

absolutelymilk

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Unless it is money making, what reason would they have to do so? Especially as doing so would add wear and tear and mean units would have to be sent for maintenance more often.

Because they would then also be able to get more units in times of need (if done on a mutual agreement basis), or presumably the TOCs could simply pay each other (and the ROSCOs if needed) for the use of the trains
 

SodTheDrummer

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Nationalised doesn't work, just look at the NHS - would happily swallow entire GDP and still want double that - massive waste and constantly 'in crisis'. Suspect tories would love to scrap it but they haven't got the cojones. Plus nationalised railway would be at the whim of dumb ass politicians with their self serving agendas.

IMHO. Which is probably wrong...

Grrrr.. :-x
 

LateThanNever

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Nationalised doesn't work, just look at the NHS - would happily swallow entire GDP and still want double that - massive waste and constantly 'in crisis'. Suspect tories would love to scrap it but they haven't got the cojones. Plus nationalised railway would be at the whim of dumb ass politicians with their self serving agendas.

IMHO. Which is probably wrong...

Grrrr.. :-x

Again see above!

Britain has a sovereign 'fiat' [ie isssued by decree] curency so it is a matter of resouces - certainly Britain can never default on any of its debts because they are issued in the currency which it itself issues!
 

WatcherZero

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In light of this discussion EU has just made a ruling against the Spanish government over state aid to the national infrastructure company ADIF.

In 2013 the Government awarded them a grant of €358.6m to build a high speed rail testing centre including testing equipment and a test track for 520 km/h trains. This was judged as unnecessary as there was not trains in development that would travel in excess of the 350kph the existing test facility could accommodate and there was no identifiable commercial demand for such a facility and no private financing or chance that the construction cost could ever be repaid.

Spain had already given the company €140.7m before notifying the EU that it was to make such a grant and the EU has ruled that money must be returned.
 

Railsigns

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Plus nationalised railway would be at the whim of dumb ass politicians with their self serving agendas.

Just as the privatised railway is today.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
(Also chuckled at the idea that union members aren't making a quick buck, Mick Cash and Mick Whelan are on £120,000 a year...again no issue with this but they're the same as the people they hate, you know...)

The vast majority of union members aren't union leaders.
 

AlterEgo

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The vast majority of union members aren't union leaders.

True. The "them and us" mentality is a bit grim though. (And union members do elect those people, plus the exec committees)
 

matt_world2004

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London Underground seems to manage fine as a nationalised network. Customer satisfaction is higher than the average for London operators and that is despite ageing more difficult to replace infrastructure.
 

AlterEgo

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London Underground seems to manage fine as a nationalised network. Customer satisfaction is higher than the average for London operators and that is despite ageing more difficult to replace infrastructure.

London Underground isn't nationalised.

Being a nationalised industry and being one which is controlled by a regional authority are quite different things.
 

matt_world2004

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London Underground isn't nationalised.

Being a nationalised industry and being one which is controlled by a regional authority are quite different things.


With the head of the organisation elected by the general public , an political position it should be subject to more political interference than the averrage nationalised organisation but is not, it has no shareholders and is publicly owned. That's sounds like nationalised to Mr. But if you want to be pedantic we can call it regionalised.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Nationalised doesn't work, just look at the NHS - would happily swallow entire GDP and still want double that - massive waste and constantly 'in crisis'. Suspect tories would love to scrap it but they haven't got the cojones. Plus nationalised railway would be at the whim of dumb ass politicians with their self serving agendas.

IMHO. Which is probably wrong...

Grrrr.. :-x

The NHS has one of the lowest levels of per capita spend on healthcare on the G20.The Americans who do not get free at the point of use healthcare spend more of their taxes on healthcare than we do. The highest per capita spend on healthcare in the G20 . The US which generally has worse outcomes and more inefficiency
 

absolutelymilk

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London Underground seems to manage fine as a nationalised network. Customer satisfaction is higher than the average for London operators and that is despite ageing more difficult to replace infrastructure.

A much simpler system to operate - trains are mostly going the same way and at very high frequencies, so it doesn't matter if your train is delayed, you just get on an earlier one which you can now get due to the delay.
 

Domh245

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Just as the privatised railway is today.

The privatised railway is just under the whim of politicians when the franchise is out for tender. Under a nationalised railway, it'd be at politician's whims constantly?
 

AlterEgo

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With the head of the organisation elected by the general public , an political position it should be subject to more political interference than the averrage nationalised organisation but is not, it has no shareholders and is publicly owned. That's sounds like nationalised to Mr. But if you want to be pedantic we can call it regionalised

London Underground has been a politicians' toy since even before the days of directly elected mayors. To claim otherwise is a bit naive in my book.

London Underground was one of the first victims/beneficiaries of the PPP. TfL never really wanted the Tube under its wing and was forced to do so because of the failure of Metronet and several other entities.

The current structure and governance of the Tube is in no way reflective of what a nationalised behemoth like "British Rail MkII" would look like.
 

matt_world2004

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A much simpler system to operate - trains are mostly going the same way and at very high frequencies, so it doesn't matter if your train is delayed, you just get on an earlier one which you can now get due to the delay.

So because the private railway is fragmented and complicated to run because the private companies dont talk to each other and run at a lower frequency that makes the private sector better.
 

AlterEgo

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So because the private railway is fragmented and complicated to run because the private companies dont talk to each other and run at a lower frequency that makes the private sector better.

No...

The point is the two aren't comparable.
 

matt_world2004

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London Underground has been a politicians' toy since even before the days of directly elected mayors. To claim otherwise is a bit naive in my book.

London Underground was one of the first victims/beneficiaries of the PPP. TfL never really wanted the Tube under its wing and was forced to do so because of the failure of Metronet and several other entities.

The current structure and governance of the Tube is in no way reflective of what a nationalised behemoth like "British Rail MkII" would look like.

Yet, it works , is cheaper more frequent, more integrated has higher customer satisfaction, a less complicated ticketing system than say GWR, Southern, GTR Arriva Trains Wales, and comparing the underground map to the route map of any franchise and the London Undergound is more complicated.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
No...

The point is the two aren't comparable.

the complexity of the national rail network has been caused by privatisation. Running stuff in 150 year old tunnels with no redundant or spare track creates a lot less of a flexible system than the national rail network has to play with.
 
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