Since there hasn't been much exposure or discussion of this project here lately, I though I'll post a quick (ended up being not so quick, it seems
) update on Rail Baltica, arguably the largest and most important railway project in Europe right now, and by far the largest transport (or any other, for that matter) project in the Baltic states. Progress is happening, but slowly and not according to the original plan. It’s not catastrophic, but it’s far from good. I'm writing this more from the Lithuanian perspective, since this is where I am, so I apologize in advance if I didn't concentrate on Latvia and Estonia as much as I should have, but I did my best.
Summary
• The original schedule aimed for full completion by 2025, later pushed to 2030.
• The project was then split into two "phases", effectively postponing full delivery to an uncertain future (plausible completion pushed to the mid-2030s or later).
• “Phase 1” is now the realistic near-term outcome; full completion ("phase 2") is highly uncertain and has not been specified. It is said to be pending more clarity from the EU regarding financing which will be decided post-2028.
Original 2030 scope
Lithuania
• Dual-track, 249 km/h mainline from PL/LT border via Kaunas and Panevėžys to LT/LV border.
• Dual-track Kaunas–Vilnius branch, 249 km/h.
• New Rail Baltica bridge in Kaunas over the Nemunas River.
• Full upgrade of Vilnius station (Zaha Hadid design).
• Panevėžys loop with a station near to the city
Latvia
• Dual-track, 249 km/h mainline with a Riga loop.
• Central and airport stations in Riga.
• New bridge over the Daugava in Riga.
Estonia
• Dual-track, 249 km/h mainline.
• New Ülemiste station in Tallinn (Zaha Hadid design).
Watered-down "Phase 1" 2030 scope (as of November 2025)
Lithuania
• Construction *should get* started (not finished) on PL/LT border → Kaunas section; financing and schedule remain uncertain.
• Single track north of Kaunas to the LT/LV border via Panevėžys
Latvia
• Single-track everywhere; embankments prepared for dual-track.
• A 1520 mm link from Salaspils to Riga to connect to Riga Central Station
• Partial completion of Riga central station and the airport station; a temporary 1520 mm airport link planned.
Estonia
• Single-track, 160 km/h operation on a dual-track embankment.
• Ülemiste station remains on track for completion.
What’s actually being done now (November 2025)
Lithuania
• Embankment and substructure works on ~114 km north of Kaunas.
• Design, land acquisition, and preparatory work for PL/LT border → Kaunas; design contract signed with DB Engineering & Consulting. No actual construction work yet.
• Jonava bridge construction underway but ~2 years behind schedule.
Latvia
• Work on Riga central and airport stations has resumed after a pause.
• Short mainline sections near Iecava under construction.
Estonia
• Ülemiste terminal construction progressing.
• Mainline substructure works in over ~70 km.
Poland
• Not formally part of Rail Baltica, but upgrading PL/LT border → Białystok → Warsaw to dual-track electrified standard for speeds of 160–200 km/h. Poland is unlikely to be the problematic part since they have experience and a track record of large-scale transport, including railway, projects.
Big picture and concerns
• The project has been significantly scaled back: Kaunas–Vilnius is effectively shelved for now, several bridges were postponed or cancelled, most corridors are now planned as single-track for the foreseeable future (albeit embankments are being built for double-track). Station upgrades in Lithuania were either cut back or abandoned altogether.
• From my long-term follow-up (since ~2015), the current situation was predictable. Early PR in around 2018-2019 mentioned completely unrealistic deadlines (2025, then 2030) while actual work on the ground didn't start until ~2022 or so. Budgeting also looked completely unrealistic from the beginning, ~5-6M Eur per 1 km of railway, no way on earth this could be even remotelty close to the price of building a new railway.
• Media scrutiny basically did not exist. For a multi-billion mega-project of this scale, independent investigative journalistic pressure, in Lithuania at least, was effectively nonexistent, which allowed delays and shifting targets to continue with pretty much zero public accountability. I don't know why this is, but my suspicion is that journalists in Lithuania are so incompetent and lacking even the most basic knowledge about the subject that they simply don't know that there is such a project taking place at all. I know this sounds wild but everything is pointing to that.
Rails versus stations discussion
• Lithuanian officials framed priorities as "mainline over stations" but in practice Lithuania neither prioritized stations nor delivered any mainline progress, just kept talking about it. Again, there was zero scrutinity from the media or society.
• Estonia has advanced both the Ülemiste station and mainline work.
• Latvia shows mixed progress: partial Riga station work and a temporary airport solution.
• Lithuania’s shelving of Kaunas–Vilnius effectively disconnects Vilnius from the 1435 mm network, which I regard as a major strategic failure, at least as of now. This is not "prioritising mainline" by any stretch. More like a cluster*uck.
Rolling stock
• There was a press release by LTG Link (and I think other respective railway companies in Latvia and Estonia) stating that they would purchase regional trains capable of 200 km/h operation without further details. No mention of long-distance/intercity rolling stock. I can only speculate that this is because it's unclear when the actual international links such as Kaunas-Riga or Riga-Tallinn will actually be completed. More local regional services such as Kaunas-Panevėžys or Pärnu-Tallinn, on the other hand, could be launched much earlier.
My take
• The revised, phased approach made “Phase 1” achievable in principle (as of 2025, anyway) and real construction is finally visible. That’s a positive development.
• However, the repeated rescheduling, repeated scope reductions, lack of *ANY* kind of public and media scrutiny point to systemic shortcomings in project governance. The likelihood of the full original vision being realized anytime before 2040-2045 is very low.
• If continued construction momentum is sustained and financing is secured, a proper PL/LT border → Kaunas electrified dual-track could still be delivered. But important elements (notably Kaunas–Vilnius and major Lithuanian station upgrades) remain at risk or will be abandoned altogether which would be quite tragic.
End note We’ll at least get something built, probably have decent Warsaw-Kaunas connection which in itself is great news, but the project now looks like a severely compromised version of what was planned. The main worry remains Lithuania’s downgraded commitments and the absence of public and media oversight, which is a big shame because it didn't need to be that way. It still doesn't need to be that way and could be fixed, but due to the reasons I mentioned, it probably wont be
Anyway, enough ranting, time for some maps and photos/videos.
Official Rail Baltica progress map which approximately indicates status of specific sections: https://www.railbaltica.org/map/
Dark blue - construction works
Light blue - covered by contracts
Orange - planned works (=nothing is happening on the ground yet)

One of the more recent Rail Baltica PR videos about track laying near Jonava in Lithuania. Not sure why the rush to lay tracks when other infrastructure is nowhere near done but I guess it's something that public would associate with how railway construction looks like i.e. actual railway tracks being laid, so here is some track-laying for you
3D video of how the Jonava bridge superstructure and deck will get built
Some construction work drone footage from Estonia. September 2025
Ülemiste terminal 2023-2025
This is all for now. I will try to take some of my own drone photo/video footage over the next few weeks if weather allows (problematic at this time of year). Despite all the shortcomings and obstacles I do hope this projects will get done in some shape, even if not how it was planned originally. One thing for sure, Baltic States will have improved transport links to Poland, which is good. Just probably not as good as it could and should have been.
Summary
• The original schedule aimed for full completion by 2025, later pushed to 2030.
• The project was then split into two "phases", effectively postponing full delivery to an uncertain future (plausible completion pushed to the mid-2030s or later).
• “Phase 1” is now the realistic near-term outcome; full completion ("phase 2") is highly uncertain and has not been specified. It is said to be pending more clarity from the EU regarding financing which will be decided post-2028.
Original 2030 scope
Lithuania
• Dual-track, 249 km/h mainline from PL/LT border via Kaunas and Panevėžys to LT/LV border.
• Dual-track Kaunas–Vilnius branch, 249 km/h.
• New Rail Baltica bridge in Kaunas over the Nemunas River.
• Full upgrade of Vilnius station (Zaha Hadid design).
• Panevėžys loop with a station near to the city
Latvia
• Dual-track, 249 km/h mainline with a Riga loop.
• Central and airport stations in Riga.
• New bridge over the Daugava in Riga.
Estonia
• Dual-track, 249 km/h mainline.
• New Ülemiste station in Tallinn (Zaha Hadid design).
Watered-down "Phase 1" 2030 scope (as of November 2025)
Lithuania
• Construction *should get* started (not finished) on PL/LT border → Kaunas section; financing and schedule remain uncertain.
• Single track north of Kaunas to the LT/LV border via Panevėžys
Latvia
• Single-track everywhere; embankments prepared for dual-track.
• A 1520 mm link from Salaspils to Riga to connect to Riga Central Station
• Partial completion of Riga central station and the airport station; a temporary 1520 mm airport link planned.
Estonia
• Single-track, 160 km/h operation on a dual-track embankment.
• Ülemiste station remains on track for completion.
What’s actually being done now (November 2025)
Lithuania
• Embankment and substructure works on ~114 km north of Kaunas.
• Design, land acquisition, and preparatory work for PL/LT border → Kaunas; design contract signed with DB Engineering & Consulting. No actual construction work yet.
• Jonava bridge construction underway but ~2 years behind schedule.
Latvia
• Work on Riga central and airport stations has resumed after a pause.
• Short mainline sections near Iecava under construction.
Estonia
• Ülemiste terminal construction progressing.
• Mainline substructure works in over ~70 km.
Poland
• Not formally part of Rail Baltica, but upgrading PL/LT border → Białystok → Warsaw to dual-track electrified standard for speeds of 160–200 km/h. Poland is unlikely to be the problematic part since they have experience and a track record of large-scale transport, including railway, projects.
Big picture and concerns
• The project has been significantly scaled back: Kaunas–Vilnius is effectively shelved for now, several bridges were postponed or cancelled, most corridors are now planned as single-track for the foreseeable future (albeit embankments are being built for double-track). Station upgrades in Lithuania were either cut back or abandoned altogether.
• From my long-term follow-up (since ~2015), the current situation was predictable. Early PR in around 2018-2019 mentioned completely unrealistic deadlines (2025, then 2030) while actual work on the ground didn't start until ~2022 or so. Budgeting also looked completely unrealistic from the beginning, ~5-6M Eur per 1 km of railway, no way on earth this could be even remotelty close to the price of building a new railway.
• Media scrutiny basically did not exist. For a multi-billion mega-project of this scale, independent investigative journalistic pressure, in Lithuania at least, was effectively nonexistent, which allowed delays and shifting targets to continue with pretty much zero public accountability. I don't know why this is, but my suspicion is that journalists in Lithuania are so incompetent and lacking even the most basic knowledge about the subject that they simply don't know that there is such a project taking place at all. I know this sounds wild but everything is pointing to that.
Rails versus stations discussion
• Lithuanian officials framed priorities as "mainline over stations" but in practice Lithuania neither prioritized stations nor delivered any mainline progress, just kept talking about it. Again, there was zero scrutinity from the media or society.
• Estonia has advanced both the Ülemiste station and mainline work.
• Latvia shows mixed progress: partial Riga station work and a temporary airport solution.
• Lithuania’s shelving of Kaunas–Vilnius effectively disconnects Vilnius from the 1435 mm network, which I regard as a major strategic failure, at least as of now. This is not "prioritising mainline" by any stretch. More like a cluster*uck.
Rolling stock
• There was a press release by LTG Link (and I think other respective railway companies in Latvia and Estonia) stating that they would purchase regional trains capable of 200 km/h operation without further details. No mention of long-distance/intercity rolling stock. I can only speculate that this is because it's unclear when the actual international links such as Kaunas-Riga or Riga-Tallinn will actually be completed. More local regional services such as Kaunas-Panevėžys or Pärnu-Tallinn, on the other hand, could be launched much earlier.
My take
• The revised, phased approach made “Phase 1” achievable in principle (as of 2025, anyway) and real construction is finally visible. That’s a positive development.
• However, the repeated rescheduling, repeated scope reductions, lack of *ANY* kind of public and media scrutiny point to systemic shortcomings in project governance. The likelihood of the full original vision being realized anytime before 2040-2045 is very low.
• If continued construction momentum is sustained and financing is secured, a proper PL/LT border → Kaunas electrified dual-track could still be delivered. But important elements (notably Kaunas–Vilnius and major Lithuanian station upgrades) remain at risk or will be abandoned altogether which would be quite tragic.
End note We’ll at least get something built, probably have decent Warsaw-Kaunas connection which in itself is great news, but the project now looks like a severely compromised version of what was planned. The main worry remains Lithuania’s downgraded commitments and the absence of public and media oversight, which is a big shame because it didn't need to be that way. It still doesn't need to be that way and could be fixed, but due to the reasons I mentioned, it probably wont be
Anyway, enough ranting, time for some maps and photos/videos.
Official Rail Baltica progress map which approximately indicates status of specific sections: https://www.railbaltica.org/map/
Dark blue - construction works
Light blue - covered by contracts
Orange - planned works (=nothing is happening on the ground yet)

One of the more recent Rail Baltica PR videos about track laying near Jonava in Lithuania. Not sure why the rush to lay tracks when other infrastructure is nowhere near done but I guess it's something that public would associate with how railway construction looks like i.e. actual railway tracks being laid, so here is some track-laying for you
3D video of how the Jonava bridge superstructure and deck will get built
Some construction work drone footage from Estonia. September 2025
Ülemiste terminal 2023-2025
This is all for now. I will try to take some of my own drone photo/video footage over the next few weeks if weather allows (problematic at this time of year). Despite all the shortcomings and obstacles I do hope this projects will get done in some shape, even if not how it was planned originally. One thing for sure, Baltic States will have improved transport links to Poland, which is good. Just probably not as good as it could and should have been.
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