Quarantine

[Bantamzen]

Despite New Zealand's best efforts, after someone tested positive after leaving quarantine, there are now 2 more positive cases from the same hotel (at the moment this is only on the live feed):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55823064

Its almost as if the virus doesn't respect their lockdown rules. Who knew? Oh wait....

 

[WelshBluebird]

Its almost as if the virus doesn't respect their lockdown rules. Who knew? Oh wait....

I mean the number of cases and deaths in the country speak for themselves.
Of course the rules are never going to catch every single case, but compare their cases and deaths to ours (per capita if you need to) or to say Irelands (who have a similar population) then it says everything.
That doesn't mean that their way of dealing with it could work elsewhere though (which I think is where a lot of people who praise NZ are falling down on assuming).

 

[Bantamzen]

I mean the number of cases and deaths in the country speak for themselves.
Of course the rules are never going to catch every single case, but compare their cases and deaths to ours (per capita if you need to) or to say Irelands (who have a similar population) then it says everything.
That doesn't mean that their way of dealing with it could work elsewhere though (which I think is where a lot of people who praise NZ are falling down on assuming).

And for other countries who've also had high death rates & stricter rules still? Like I have said time and again, viruses spread. They don't obey human rules. This has been the case for as long as we've been a viable species, it was for hundreds of millions of years previously, it will still be the case so long as life exists on this planet. It only needs a handful of people to interact to spread and wait for our species to re-engage, as NZ are finding out.

Its time to stop pretending that we are at some kind of war that we can "win" with it, and accept that it is here, and will always be here. Only when the delusion stops can the real mitigations be discussed. We need the adults back in the room, not the scared kiddies that are currently playing politics.

 

[WelshBluebird]

And for other countries who've also had high death rates & stricter rules still? Like I have said time and again, viruses spread. They don't obey human rules. This has been the case for as long as we've been a viable species, it was for hundreds of millions of years previously, it will still be the case so long as life exists on this planet. It only needs a handful of people to interact to spread and wait for our species to re-engage, as NZ are finding out.

Its time to stop pretending that we are at some kind of war that we can "win" with it, and accept that it is here, and will always be here. Only when the delusion stops can the real mitigations be discussed. We need the adults back in the room, not the scared kiddies that are currently playing politics.

I am not talking about "scared kiddies".
New Zealand are having large scale events that we couldn't even dream of having in this country right now, specifically because of the policies and strategies they have had in place. That is what I am talking about.
Now, that doesn't mean their strategy would work elsewhere, and by all means I agree with points made previously around that if we didn't get a vaccine they would have been screwed, but you can't argue with the proof. Concerts of 20k plus people. Even if you are against lockdown etc in this country, I can't see any current scenario where large scale events like that would be possible here.

 

[brad465]

Its almost as if the virus doesn't respect their lockdown rules. Who knew? Oh wait....

The fact the first person in this incident "travelled around" one of their regions (Northland) means it wouldn't be surprising if they found more in the coming days.

 

[jtuk]

I am not talking about "scared kiddies".
New Zealand are having large scale events that we couldn't even dream of having in this country right now, specifically because of the policies and strategies they have had in place. That is what I am talking about.
Now, that doesn't mean their strategy would work elsewhere, and by all means I agree with points made previously around that if we didn't get a vaccine they would have been screwed, but you can't argue with the proof. Concerts of 20k plus people. Even if you are against lockdown etc in this country, I can't see any current scenario where large scale events like that would be possible here.

We could do that tomorrow. It's a political choice that we can't.

 

[WelshBluebird]

We could do that tomorrow. It's a political choice that we can't.

My point was that NZ can do it and not have a cases numbers explode afterwards because of their policies and restrictions they have had in place.
If we did it, we would see a large spread of the virus because of that event.
Can you not see the difference?

 

[jumble]

No. You are putting words in my mouth, and I resent it. It's not about "throwing people over the top". To the south of me is Australia. Total Control between borders of their States in the main and Just NOT allowing travel. Totally unlike the UK with all it's dithering; unworkable rules and regulations. And people travelling all over the place for the last 10 months thinking "It's not going to happen to me". A lot more personal sacrifice by certain people would help.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jan 2021 ==


Actually I was here for 7 and a half months before coming home for 3 months. So do tell me what do I do as an expat UK citizen? Stay away from home? I have to tell you without labouring the point, travelling from PNG to the UK was not easy, as it should be, entering the UK as I did in September was surprising so easy as to be unbelievable. Travelling back here was really tough, the checks and paperwork was the difficulty. Leaving the UK was also surprising easy. Now I wonder where the problems are?

What do you propose the government do about the 5000 or so truckers delivering goods to and from UK every day?
I don't believe Australia has the same thing happening so you are comparing Apples with Oranges

 

[jtuk]

My point was that NZ can do it and not have a cases numbers explode afterwards because of their policies and restrictions they have had in place.
If we did it, we would see a large spread of the virus because of that event.
Can you not see the difference?

I take it you've not seen the latest studies on asymptomatic transmission, which indicate that, at most, it's such a small risk to be almost non existent. If it even exists at all. Tell people with symptoms to not go, job done.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I take it you've not seen the latest studies on asymptomatic transmission, which indicate that, at most, it's such a small risk to be almost non existent. If it even exists at all. Tell people with symptoms to not go, job done.

And you think that just "telling people with symptoms not to go" would actually work? Sorry but that is pretty damn naïve to say the least.
It is pretty obvious what you would see is people ignoring that ask. Especially if there is money involved that they would not get back if they happened to come down with a bad cough say on the day of the event.

Even on this forum, which has a massive anti restriction bias compared to the rest of the population, most people seem to agree that mass events where you have 20k plus people attending are not really things that should be going on right now.

 

[jtuk]

And you think that just "telling people with symptoms not to go" would actually work? Sorry but that is pretty damn naïve to say the least.
It is pretty obvious what you would see is people ignoring that ask. Especially if there is money involved that they would not get back if they happened to come down with a bad cough say on the day of the event.

Even on this forum, which has a massive anti restriction bias compared to the rest of the population, most people seem to agree that mass events where you have 20k plus people attending are not really things that should be going on right now.

Ah, so you just don't think the country can take any personal responsibility and that we need authoritarian measures in droves, got you

 

[WelshBluebird]

Ah, so you just don't think the country can take any personal responsibility and that we need authoritarian measures in droves, got you

So you think, honestly, that we could host a 20k plus capacity event in this country right now, and it wouldn't lead to a massive spread of the virus?
Honestly now.
Because that is what NZ has managed to do.

And in terms of people taking personal responsibility - it is clear that some people in this country don't care. Defecating on doorsteps, abandoning cars in the middle of the road because the car parks are full, abusing hospital staff - things that shouldn't even be acceptable in our society normally. That is what a number of people in this country stand for. So to answer your point - I do think there is a sizable number of people in this country who have no concept of personal responsibility or right or wrong.

 

[MikeWM]

And in terms of people taking personal responsibility - it is clear that some people in this country don't care. Defecating on doorsteps, abandoning cars in the middle of the road because the car parks are full, abusing hospital staff - things that shouldn't even be acceptable in our society normally. That is what a number of people in this country stand for. So to answer your point - I do think there is a sizable number of people in this country who have no concept of personal responsibility or right or wrong.

But passing over-reaching laws to 'force' personal responsibility isn't going to have any particular effect on those who don't exercise it anyway and already break existing laws eg. in the ways you mention. But it does punish those of us who do already exercise personal responsibility.

 

[Bikeman78]

But passing over-reaching laws to 'force' personal responsibility isn't going to have any particular effect on those who don't exercise it anyway and already break existing laws eg. in the ways you mention. But it does punish those of us who do already exercise personal responsibility.

Agreed. Even if it were legal, I wouldn't steal, murder, vandalise property or drive at 50 mph along a residential street. I accept that more people would do those things if laws were abolished but I think the majority of people are reasonable and would not.

 

[jtuk]

So you think, honestly, that we could host a 20k plus capacity event in this country right now, and it wouldn't lead to a massive spread of the virus?
Honestly now.
Because that is what NZ has managed to do.

I think the British public has enough common sense not to show up to, say, a football match, if they're coughing their guts up.

Key point is that we've now vaccinated a huge percentage of those that are vulnerable to this sort of virus. We could have a massive spread of the virus and it wouldn't matter.

 

[WelshBluebird]

But passing over-reaching laws to 'force' personal responsibility isn't going to have any particular effect on those who don't exercise it anyway and already break existing laws eg. in the ways you mention. But it does punish those of us who do already exercise personal responsibility.

I wasn't talking about "over-reaching laws" though.
I was talking about the ability to have large scale events happen without the risk of wide spread of the virus. That is exactly what NZ has and we do not.

I think the British public has enough common sense not to show up to, say, a football match, if they're coughing their guts up.

I don't agree. If that is the case, why were people who were ill showing at football matches before the season was suspended last year? Hell you just have to look at the number of people who would still turn up to the office coughing their guts up before all of this happened to see we have an issue in that regard.

Are you seriously telling me that at a game say at Old Tafford, there will be more than 70k people, you believe there won't be some people who are ill who decide to go anyway?

Key point is that we've now vaccinated a huge percentage of those that are vulnerable to this sort of virus. We could have a massive spread of the virus and it wouldn't matter.

I don't think we are there yet, as we have barely started with people who are younger but specifically vulnerable. We are getting there though, and in a month or two probably will be thankfully.

But the point is that because of their policies, NZ were able to host that event already and have been holding other events that we haven't been able to for a while now.
By all means, we can argue that those same policies wouldn't work here - but they did work in NZ and have given the country the ability to be very close to normal with the except of international travel (which we basically don't have over here atm anyway).

 

[island]

Its almost as if the virus doesn't respect their lockdown rules. Who knew? Oh wait....

The current working theory is that the virus spread within the quarantine hotel by way of its air conditioning system.

 

[Bantamzen]

The current working theory is that the virus spread within the quarantine hotel by way of its air conditioning system.

I'm sure that someone will soon suggest turning it off....

 

[Chester1]

Boris has announced compulsory hotel quarantine for 10 days for British Citizens and residents who are arriving from countries that have flight bans. They can still arrive by indirect routes and as Citizens and residents they cannot be denied entry into the UK. Labour and SNP have demanded it be introduced for all arrivals.

22 countries seems a reasonable compromise and can be scaled up if and when necessary. Ireland has announced compulsory hotel quarantining, but currently just for arrivals from Brazil and South Africa. The Irish Government referenced a "two island" approach to hotel quarantining. We are effectively limited to imposing similar measures to Ireland because of the Common Travel Area.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

When do you see the travel restrictions being lifted? Hopefully by the summer but do you think the requirement to quarantine will be dropped once we have a large proportion of our population vaccinated and if we have evidence that the vaccines impede transmission surely we should not be forcing vaccinated persons to quarantine except maybe from high risk areas with variants of concern

 

[Yew]

When do you see the travel restrictions being lifted? Hopefully by the summer but do you think the requirement to quarantine will be dropped once we have a large proportion of our population vaccinated and if we have evidence that the vaccines impede transmission surely we should not be forcing vaccinated persons to quarantine except maybe from high risk areas with variants of concern

There's literally no point to it at present, so I don't expect there to be any rhyme or reason to their removal either. This isn't about a virus anymore, it's about politics.

 

[londiscape]

There might, many months ago, have been a benefit in enforced hotel quarantine for arrivals from abroad into the UK, if it had been coordinated with the Republic of Ireland and thereby avoided the issue of the porous land border. There are alleged EU law issues with Ireland implementing this; I am not close to what they might be, but in any event, that ship has long sailed.

Aside from the numerous implementation issues, it is not at all clear that the government has the power to forcibly detain British people in hotels and charge them for their detention.

It does look like, on a prima facie reading, that charging for detention would be in breach of the International Health Regulations, described by the WHO as binding international law. This was also highlighted over on Lockdown Sceptics yesterday:

Article 32 Treatment of travellers
In implementing health measures under these Regulations, States Parties shall treat travellers with respect for their dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms and minimize any discomfort or distress associated with such measures, including by:

(a) treating all travellers with courtesy and respect;
(b) taking into consideration the gender, sociocultural, ethnic or religious concerns of travellers; and
(c) providing or arranging for adequate food and water, appropriate accommodation and clothing, protection for baggage and other possessions, appropriate medical treatment, means of necessary communication if possible in a language that they can understand and other appropriate assistance for travellers who are quarantined, isolated or subject to medical examinations or other procedures for public health purposes.

Article 40 Charges for health measures regarding travellers
1. Except for travellers seeking temporary or permanent residence, and subject to paragraph 2 of this Article, no charge shall be made by a State Party pursuant to these Regulations for the following measures for the protection of public health:

(a) any medical examination provided for in these Regulations, or any supplementary examination which may be required by that State Party to ascertain the health status of the traveller examined;
(b) any vaccination or other prophylaxis provided to a traveller on arrival that is not a published requirement or is a requirement published less than 10 days prior to provision of the vaccination or other prophylaxis;
(c) appropriate isolation or quarantine requirements of travellers;
(d) any certificate issued to the traveller specifying the measures applied and the date of application; or
(e) any health measures applied to baggage accompanying the traveller.

2. States Parties may charge for health measures other than those referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article, including those primarily for the benefit of the traveller.

 

[island]

I don't think those regulations avail anyone in this context; they only apply to health measures "under these regulations" and charges "pursuant to these regulations". The proposed detention is (one assumes) pursuant to the Public Health Act 1984, not the WHO International Health Regulations. However, the PHA does not seem to me to allow charging either.

 

[Chester1]

When do you see the travel restrictions being lifted? Hopefully by the summer but do you think the requirement to quarantine will be dropped once we have a large proportion of our population vaccinated and if we have evidence that the vaccines impede transmission surely we should not be forcing vaccinated persons to quarantine except maybe from high risk areas with variants of concern

There's literally no point to it at present, so I don't expect there to be any rhyme or reason to their removal either. This isn't about a virus anymore, it's about politics.

My guess is that more and more countries will be added in next few months, peaking next winter. If the justification (new variants) is taken at face value they would become a permanent feature. I can't see that happening, due it being a guaranteed vote loser by 2024 and because the Governments economic agenda requires increasing not decreasing global links.

I reckon there will be a decent number of predominently medium haul destinations open this summer. Politically its not in the EUs interest to remove advice to member states to ban non essential travel by British Citizens. Some Med countries will allow us in but they may be on UKs hotel quarantine list. Regardless of what they say now, foreign holidays will be an option this summer subject to covid tests and at home quarantine. No Government would want to take responsibility for the carnage that would occur if everyone tries to holiday in the UK. We simply don't have the infrastructure and prices will become a politically toxic issue. Thats why the travel corridors were introduced last summer.

Nicola Sturgeon has already said that Scotland will introduce compulsory quarantining for all international arrivals and hinted that it would last for at least rest of this year. They will need Border Force to share data to prevent Scots just traveling via England. The irony is that the Irish Government has already confirmed compulsory hotel quarantine of arrivals due to inter EU travel breaches EU law...

 

[philosopher]

I reckon there will be a decent number of predominently medium haul destinations open this summer. Politically its not in the EUs interest to remove advice to member states to ban non essential travel by British Citizens. Some Med countries will allow us in but they may be on UKs hotel quarantine list. Regardless of what they say now, foreign holidays will be an option this summer subject to covid tests and at home quarantine. No Government would want to take responsibility for the carnage that would occur if everyone tries to holiday in the UK. We simply don't have the infrastructure and prices will become a politically toxic issue. Thats why the travel corridors were introduced last summer.

I think one problem is that domestic tourists in the UK tend to go to different places to international tourists to the UK. Domestic tourists in the UK I reckon are most likely to visit coastal or hilly areas of the UK such as Cornwall or the Lake District. Overseas visitors to the UK probably will end up staying in London or Edinburgh.

If the government can encourage more domestic tourists to visit places like London or Edinburgh then it would first reduce pressure on infrastructure and prices in places like Cornwall and the Lake District and second it would provide some boost to tourist sectors that may typically rely more on international visitors such as West End theatre.

 

[takno]

I think one problem is that domestic tourists in the UK tend to go to different places to international tourists to the UK. Domestic tourists in the UK I reckon are most likely to visit coastal or hilly areas of the UK such as Cornwall or the Lake District. Overseas visitors to the UK probably will end up staying in London or Edinburgh.

If the government can encourage more domestic tourists to visit places like London or Edinburgh then it would first reduce pressure on infrastructure and prices in places like Cornwall and the Lake District and second it would provide some boost to tourist sectors that may typically rely more on international visitors such as West End theatre.

On the other hand, if the Airbnb market in Edinburgh is messed up for another summer, and that feeds through to house prices, I might be able to afford a flat.

 

[Chester1]

I think one problem is that domestic tourists in the UK tend to go to different places to international tourists to the UK. Domestic tourists in the UK I reckon are most likely to visit coastal or hilly areas of the UK such as Cornwall or the Lake District. Overseas visitors to the UK probably will end up staying in London or Edinburgh.

If the government can encourage more domestic tourists to visit places like London or Edinburgh then it would first reduce pressure on infrastructure and prices in places like Cornwall and the Lake District and second it would provide some boost to tourist sectors that may typically rely more on international visitors such as West End theatre.

About 90% of UK tourism is domestic and 10% international. There is some overlap e.g. the Lake District is very popular with both. City breaks will be a tough sell this year and even if capacity is fully utilised it wouldn't be sufficient, its too smaller section of the overall market. The 400,000 at Bournemouth beach would repeatedly along the south coast with no foreign travel. The UK government will allow some foreign travel like it did last year to act as pressure release and to prevent many ordinary families being priced out of a summer holiday. I think Welsh government will be inclined to ban international travel but be happy with inter UK travel (probably Ireland and rest of Common Travel Area too if they allow Brits in). Most Scots heading to England and Wales on holiday because they can't go to the EU won't look good for the cause of independence, so I don't think they will allow non essential travel to England until after the schools go back in August.

 

[Yew]

Not being allowed out the country is a move for dictators and oppressive regimes, not the domain of a western liberal democracy.

 

[Richard Scott]

Not being allowed out the country is a move for dictators and oppressive regimes, not the domain of a western liberal democracy.

Exactly and why? Vaccine will have been rolled out by then so afraid I don't see what their point is. I suppose they'll bleat on about new mutations but this seems to be a white elephant as well. It isn't all of a sudden going to become much more deadly. I cannot understand why politicians think this virus will behave differently to others. It is just that they are enjoying their authoritarian powers now.

 

[packermac]

When do you see the travel restrictions being lifted? Hopefully by the summer but do you think the requirement to quarantine will be dropped once we have a large proportion of our population vaccinated and if we have evidence that the vaccines impede transmission surely we should not be forcing vaccinated persons to quarantine except maybe from high risk areas with variants of concern

No idea but it looks like Germany is about to announce a total travel ban on anyone from countries with a mutation, which of course includes the UK.