Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Bald Rick]

Quelle Surprise. Hopefully the courts chuck any action by Eurostar or SNCF straight into the dustbin

Well, obviously, they can’t.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Well, obviously, they can’t.

Depends what the Eurostar challenge is, the ORR are hardly likely to make a decision they aren’t reasonably sure is legally sound, particularly in a case that attracted so much public interest as this one did. One would assume that Eurostar will have to find some very niche technical reason for the decision to be ruled unlawful, and Virgin will almost certainly fight back. The procedure of the decision was very clearly detailed in the decision letter, and the ORR even disregarded evidence from at least one party because it missed the deadline. Eurostar can hardly say the decision is irrational because the ORR’s whole raison d’être in the TMI case was to decide the most beneficial use of the available space. Launching a legal challenge is risky for Eurostar if their case gets thrown out and they are shown up as incompetent because they couldn’t prove they were in a position to use space in their own depot to the greatest overall advantage.

 

[Bald Rick]

Depends what the Eurostar challenge is, the ORR are hardly likely to make a decision they aren’t reasonably sure is legally sound, particularly in a case that attracted so much public interest as this one did. One would assume that Eurostar will have to find some very niche technical reason for the decision to be ruled unlawful, and Virgin will almost certainly fight back. The procedure of the decision was very clearly detailed in the decision letter, and the ORR even disregarded evidence from at least one party because it missed the deadline. Eurostar can hardly say the decision is irrational because the ORR’s whole raison d’être in the TMI case was to decide the most beneficial use of the available space.

Well they won’t launch a challenge ‘just because’. To launch a JR they will need to have reasonable grounds to demonstrate that the procedure followed has erred in law. It would be a complete waste of time to do otherwise. Therefroe it is reasonable to assume that if they *do* launch a JR, they have sufficient legal advice that indicates what that error in law was. And if they have that, then the courts will have to examine it carefully.

Assuming Eurostar has similar governance to other companies of that size, a decision to launch a JR will have to be authorised by the CEO, and possibly the Board. It is not something they will go into lightly.

For what it is worth I would be surprised if the ORR had erred on this, partly because they are well practised in making such determinations, partly because the decision will have been authorised by the ORR Board following careful legal advice, and partly because I know who did the leg work and they are good folk.

Launching a legal challenge is risky for Eurostar if their case gets thrown out and they are shown up as incompetent because they couldn’t prove they were in a position to use space in their own depot to the greatest overall advantage.

The only risk is the cost of legal fees for the JR. The risk of not doing a JR (if there is a reasonable chance of success) is fairly obvious.

 

[Trainlog]

Ashford is kind of a pound shop Lille in that you've got a pretty upmarket shopping centre right next door to the station and that it acts as a regional interchange for most trains in East Kent. There's a lot more appetite for reinstatement there than Ebbsfleet.

I agree, Ashford itself isn't likely to be the tourist destination itself apart from the designer outlet (though it's a more enjoyable shopping experience than Bluewater these days) it's the onward connections to places of interest such as Canterbury, Deal, Sandwich, Folkestone, Rye, Hastings, and with a change at Tonbridge, Tunbridge Wells.

Towns in Kent and East Sussex that are worthy of a reference in a Eurostar or Virgin trains brochure/advertisement.

The target markets are very different. Ashford really just appeals to those from East Kent; it did very little inwards traffic despite all the French tourists one encounters in the area, particularly Canterbury. Ebbsfleet even more so, its users almost wholly arriving by car, from surprisingly far away (I encountered Cambridgeshire residents there), and also from a lot of NE/SE/outer London. Major Eurostar flows of those coming from the Continent, and a notable quantity of touring Americans, head wholly to St Pancras, along with all from provincial Britain who come into London by train, and these groups may well be a majority of those on Eurostar. They are actually quite different markets.

The directional flow issue is similar to that experienced by international airlines. From the UK to the USA there is a reasonable demand from provincial areas, but a plane takes everyone, and those Americans travelling in the opposite direction are almost entirely travelling to London - Edinburgh is apparently the single UK outlier in this.

And West Kent. Basically, most of Kent, except for areas in the North of the county, will benefit from the reinstatement of International services at Ashford.

The problem with these intermediate stops in general, but particularly Ashford, is that every seat you sell from them is one less seat you can sell from London. So you have to make your Ebbsfleet-Paris price identical to your London-Paris price otherwise you'll just reduce your yields. It makes it very hard to stimulate demand using pricing.

To take an airline example, it's the same reason flying from London to Dubai on Emirates is relatively expensive. Every seat they sell just to Dubai, is one less seat they can sell to somewhere much further east. So it's priced accordingly.

Granted, Eurostar is treated like an airline; however, it is still a train first and foremost, which means those from Ashford are just as entitled to book that seat as anyone from London. I have been on many services out of London terminals where I have seen on seats 'Reserved from Reading', 'Reserved from Stevenage', 'Reserved from Luton', but it's fine with me as they are allowed to reserve those seats.

There are plenty of good reasons to want a one-seat ride, including the time saving and the inconvenience of traipsing down Euston Road with luggage.

Agreed, obviously being on a site called RailUKforums, I like trains and travelling on them, however, when it comes to carrying luggage such as suitcases across London for a long-distance rail trip, it's certainly something I am not overjoyed about, to be honest, from the times I have had to do that.

With light luggage, such as one rucksack, I don't mind it; if anything, I have the opportunity to look around terminals such as Paddington, St Pancras, Kings Cross, etc and enjoy looking at the stunning architecture and the chance to get refreshments.

However, with a suitcase, it just adds an extra level of stress as you are dragging something heavy around and taking up space. The Underground is not a fun experience with a suitcase; everyone will rush past you on the escalator, in the corridors, tube train doors. Some lines, such as the Victoria line, are borderline unusable with a suitcase with the amount of crowds each train receives, though the Bakerloo line is alright with a suitcase.

Then, with the terminals, you basically keep your wits with you at all times, looking out for pickpockets and trying not to bump into people. It also doesn't help that the platform announcement is dragged out for what feels like ages and then there is the rush to the gateline when it is announced.

I know many in the North, East, Western parts of England, and the Scottish and Welsh users of this site will laugh at this; however, I wish that Kent had cross-country services just so that I can enjoy long-distance train travel and bypass London when I have luggage.

If there were a direct cross-country service that started at Tonbridge and ran out to Reading, I would definitely use it.

 

[chris2]

I’ve been on several family holidays by train in the past few years. I’m the enthusiast, the rest humour me and I do my best to make the trip as comfortable and fun as possible.

The hardest places without a doubt to do this are the Tube across London and the metro across Paris.

This is where kids, luggage and general passenger chaos is most pronounced and the no 1 thing I warn other prospective families looking at family rail adventures about.

E* services to Lille create some opportunities for avoiding Paris and can also be a cheaper destination for the cross channel segment. I much prefer going East via Brussels because you don’t have to change stations.

I’m fully aware that my demographic is not a signifiant one in terms of ridership levels, and often the argument here is - well that’s not a big user group, so the economics don’t stack up. But for me that misses the growth point…there are millions of families in the UK who go on holiday.

If competition makes the journey cheaper and offers both new stations to go from / to, I’m all for it.

 

[HSTEd]

For what it is worth I would be surprised if the ORR had erred on this, partly because they are well practised in making such determinations, partly because the decision will have been authorised by the ORR Board following careful legal advice, and partly because I know who did the leg work and they are good folk.

There has been a lot of political pressure heaped on ORR to break the Eurostar monopoly however.

See the Prime Minister making a show of signing deals to develop other trains as part of an attempt to burnish his pro European credentials.

I guess we will find out what happens in court.

 

[TheGrew]

For me, Ebbsfleet's main purpose is the leisure / P+R market for whom people like me (from the North West) would arrive by car with substantial luggage for a week at DLP or similar (assuming resumption of services to MLV).
Whilst it would be perfectly possible for me to change at Euston and walk along Euston Road, doing so with large luggage and young children is not appealing in any way. As such, my last two trips were Le Shuttle, though when travelling without kids, I have used Eurostar to reach Paris and Brussels.

 

[AndrewE]

For me, Ebbsfleet's main purpose is the leisure / P+R market for whom people like me (from the North West) would arrive by car with substantial luggage for a week at DLP or similar (assuming resumption of services to MLV).
Whilst it would be perfectly possible for me to change at Euston and walk along Euston Road, doing so with large luggage and young children is not appealing in any way. As such, my last two trips were Le Shuttle, though when travelling without kids, I have used Eurostar to reach Paris and Brussels.

I'm surprised at that, although I guess UK domestic rail fares will be a factor too.

When Le Shuttle commenced a friend persuaded us to join them on a road trip to the Pas de Calais (I think he had a shareholder ticket to use before it expired.) Being used to doing pretty well all our journeys >20 miles by train (and bus if needed) I couldn't believe the length and tedium of the road journey from Rugby where we met up to Folkestone!

 

[TheGrew]

I'm surprised at that, although I guess UK domestic rail fares will be a factor too.

When Le Shuttle commenced a friend persuaded us to join them on a road trip to the Pas de Calais (I think he had a shareholder ticket to use before it expired.) Being used to doing pretty well all our journeys >20 miles by train (and bus if needed) I couldn't believe the length and tedium of the road journey from Rugby where we met up to Folkestone!

Yeah, UK domestic rail prices are a factor. From where I live, it is flying out of Manchester or Liverpool vs driving. Before P&O terminated it, I think Hull-Zeebrugge would have been an option as well, but Rotterdam isn't great for onward travel to France.

 

[Zomboid]

Just taking my kids to London on the train is hard enough work, the idea of hours waiting to check in at St Pancras before a long train ride... Maybe when they're older! I don't think the possibility of P&R at Ebbsfleet or Ashford would change that equation much, but it's certainly more appealing than trying to get them across London with luggage.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Just a tidbit from the latest Green Signals podcast, Trenitalia have a Chunnel-related announcement to make within the next two weeks. No word on what it is, just an announcement of an announcement.

 

[Trainbike46]

Just taking my kids to London on the train is hard enough work, the idea of hours waiting to check in at St Pancras before a long train ride... Maybe when they're older! I don't think the possibility of P&R at Ebbsfleet or Ashford would change that equation much, but it's certainly more appealing than trying to get them across London with luggage.

While I'm aware that this isn't the main point of your post, there is absolutely no need to arrive hours in advance of a eurostar service - as long as you are in the queue for security at least 30 minutes before departure you should be good

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Nov 2025 ==

Just a tidbit from the latest Green Signals podcast, Trenitalia have a Chunnel-related announcement to make within the next two weeks. No word on what it is, just an announcement of an announcement.

Curious - maybe Trenitalia is suing? Or announcing their plan for a service without a UK depot?

ps that's a good signature/footer/whatever we're calling it!

 

[TheWierdOne]

Curious - maybe Trenitalia is suing? Or announcing their plan for a service without a UK depot?

I’d be surprised if they are launching legal action.

1) Trenitalia are the only applicant who could conceivably run a Chunnel operation without a UK depot as they have space in France and could cycle trains through Milan or North Italy.

2) The announcement came through a campaigner for restoration of international services to Kent stations, which would be an unusual avenue to leak future legal action.

ps that's a good signature/footer/whatever we're calling it!

Thank you

 

[AndrewE]

Just taking my kids to London on the train is hard enough work, the idea of hours waiting to check in at St Pancras before a long train ride... Maybe when they're older! I don't think the possibility of P&R at Ebbsfleet or Ashford would change that equation much, but it's certainly more appealing than trying to get them across London with luggage.

I would add to @Trainbike46 comment that from anywhere "up north" your train is going to arrive either at Kings X/St P itself, or at Euston which really isn't a bad change via the footpaths and back streets north of the Euston Rd. Good to get the blood flowing again after sitting down all the way to London, and it might help discipline the family about how much luggage is really needed for a holiday, as opposed to how much an airline will let you take if you pay enough...

 

[Palmerston]

For me, Ebbsfleet's main purpose is the leisure / P+R market for whom people like me (from the North West) would arrive by car with substantial luggage for a week at DLP or similar (assuming resumption of services to MLV).
Whilst it would be perfectly possible for me to change at Euston and walk along Euston Road, doing so with large luggage and young children is not appealing in any way. As such, my last two trips were Le Shuttle, though when travelling without kids, I have used Eurostar to reach Paris and Brussels.

I would second this, but come from Hampshire. Driving to Ebbsfleet is/was vastly more attractive than a train to Waterloo and a journey across London just to get to St Pancras. Ebbsfleet is also much more convenient than Ashford.

 

[jon0844]

Just a tidbit from the latest Green Signals podcast, Trenitalia have a Chunnel-related announcement to make within the next two weeks. No word on what it is, just an announcement of an announcement.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announced they were going to team up with Virgin or something.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Nov 2025 ==

Whilst it would be perfectly possible for me to change at Euston and walk along Euston Road, doing so with large luggage and young children is not appealing in any way. As such, my last two trips were Le Shuttle, though when travelling without kids, I have used Eurostar to reach Paris and Brussels.

The well marked, well lit, route away from Euston Road is a fantastic way to get between Euston and St Pancras (as well as King's Cross, Coal Drops Yard etc) and kids if any age would be fine, in my opinion.

That's not to say I don't hope for Ebbsfleet to return to being an option for people driving to get Eurostar (I have no idea how much the car parking at St Pancras costs on top of any other fees for entering London).

 

[Krokodil]

While I'm aware that this isn't the main point of your post, there is absolutely no need to arrive hours in advance of a eurostar service - as long as you are in the queue for security at least 30 minutes before departure you should be good

If you're relying on Avanti to get you to London, it would be advisable to leave as much slack as possible.

That said, once south of Stafford on time - with no hint of expected disruption beyond - I have gone online and shifted my Eurostar booking to an earlier train.

 

[Trainlog]

I would add to @Trainbike46 comment that from anywhere "up north" your train is going to arrive either at Kings X/St P itself, or at Euston which really isn't a bad change via the footpaths and back streets north of the Euston Rd. Good to get the blood flowing again after sitting down all the way to London, and it might help discipline the family about how much luggage is really needed for a holiday, as opposed to how much an airline will let you take if you pay enough...

The well marked, well lit, route away from Euston Road is a fantastic way to get between Euston and St Pancras (as well as King's Cross, Coal Drops Yard etc) and kids if any age would be fine, in my opinion.

It's one of those scenarios where it depends on how much luggage you are taking to determine how much you'll enjoy the Euston Road walk.

Admittedly, on the way back from a trip to Yorkshire, I decided to walk from King's Cross to Charing Cross instead of taking the Underground. It was nice to do that, and I took in the sights around Trafalgar Square. However, I had one rather heavy rucksack with me as I was up North for 2 nights, and I was rather tired at this point as well, so it still had its drawbacks, but I was more confident doing it as I had no suitcase to worry about.

With more luggage, such as suitcases, I can still imagine that whilst the sights are interesting, it's just a lot of stopping and starting with traffic lights and making sure that you have all your luggage with you at all times, especially with people barging past you on the pavement, as brought up in the previous paragraph, if you are doing a long distance trip you will tired regardless so that does need to be taken into consideration aswell.

I do like London and the London Underground; however, when it comes to carrying heavy luggage around the capital, an easy interchange such as Waterloo- Waterloo East or St Pancras over to King's Cross is so much nicer than the Underground or hundreds of streets. If possible, see the sights of London another day with lighter luggage; the experience will be much nicer, and you can take your time looking around.

 

[jon0844]

It's one of those scenarios where it depends on how much luggage you are taking to determine how much you'll enjoy the Euston Road walk.

But I am not talking about the Euston Road walk, which has loads of junctions. This is the clearly signed route through Somers Town. It's a very short walk and level throughout, albeit you need to walk around to get level access to and from Euston.

With the recent modifications to the road, there's almost zero traffic which makes it even more pleasant. It takes less than ten minutes door to door, and I've done it with heavy bags (albeit on 4 wheels so easy to slide along the road).

I might have some reservations about doing the walk alone late at night, but it's actually very well lit and quiet so I don't think it would be dangerous. However, if you want to be around lots of people then you can always go on Euston Road (but in my experience, you're more likely to have beggars come up to you with varying stories of why they need money to get home, get petrol for their broken down car etc).

 

[BRX]

I do the walk between Euston & St Pancras often (in my case usually to/from thameslink rather than Eurostar).

It's fine without heavy luggage.

With heavy luggage it's doable but perhaps not particularly enjoyable.

With - say - heavy luggage on a rainy January night it's certainly not enjoyable. It's a totally different thing from the transfer from kings cross over to St pancras which in comparison is trivial.

I can absolutely see why it would put many categories of traveller off using Eurostar in conjunction with the WCML.

 

[Eurostarosaur]

Just a tidbit from the latest Green Signals podcast, Trenitalia have a Chunnel-related announcement to make within the next two weeks. No word on what it is, just an announcement of an announcement.

Yes, that part was extremely interesting.

Obviously Trenitalia would need to jump through some hoops to make a service work, but if they can sort out maintenance elsewhere then they can move forward regardless. Would be ironic if Eurostar spent all their time fighting monopolistic legal battles trying to keep Virgin out of their depot , and in the meantime Trenitalia gazump them all by launching services before 2029. Trenitalia would then become the preferred operator with the most comfortable trains.

 

[ShadowKnight]

I do the walk between Euston & St Pancras often (in my case usually to/from thameslink rather than Eurostar).

It's fine without heavy luggage.

With heavy luggage it's doable but perhaps not particularly enjoyable.

With - say - heavy luggage on a rainy January night it's certainly not enjoyable. It's a totally different thing from the transfer from kings cross over to St pancras which in comparison is trivial.

I can absolutely see why it would put many categories of traveller off using Eurostar in conjunction with the WCML.

I concur. It is entirely feasible to walk with some luggage down Euston road, it is not practical for a significant minority of users (families, elderly, disabled, large groups) for a variety of individual reasons. It is a serious push factor.

I think some people here are quite dismissive of that fact.
The number of changes on a journey, especially long journeys (as any international journey would be) can majorly influence someone never contemplating such a journey. Every extra step, extra interchange adds complexity, increases the risk of things going wrong.

For example if you are a family going from Liverpool to Paris, the extra hassle and things that can go wrong when you are hauling luggage down Euston road and little Jimmy is running around up ahead getting dangerously close to the curb... "Oh the train is too much hassle and danger, let's fly instead."

 

[jon0844]

I concur. It is entirely feasible to walk with some luggage down Euston road, it is not practical for a significant minority of users (families, elderly, disabled, large groups) for a variety of individual reasons. It is a serious push factor.

I think some people here are quite dismissive of that fact.
The number of changes on a journey, especially long journeys (as any international journey would be) can majorly influence someone never contemplating such a journey. Every extra step, extra interchange adds complexity, increases the risk of things going wrong.

For example if you are a family going from Liverpool to Paris, the extra hassle and things that can go wrong when you are hauling luggage down Euston road and little Jimmy is running around up ahead getting dangerously close to the curb... "Oh the train is too much hassle and danger, let's fly instead."

Don't walk down Euston Road. It's very busy and there are lots of junctions. It's also going to take longer.

Of course, I get that having kids running around might be a problem, but I really don't see the luggage issue. You will have to move that luggage around at some point, and presumably did from your house/flat to the taxi/bus/train, the station where you boarded, and when you get to your destination etc.

The route through Somers Town has no steps and you can literally see each station from when you enter the road from the other.

The other alternative is to use the tube, but doing that with bulky luggage isn't fun and you still have loads of walking to do.

 

[HSTEd]

I think some people here are quite dismissive of that fact.
The number of changes on a journey, especially long journeys (as any international journey would be) can majorly influence someone never contemplating such a journey. Every extra step, extra interchange adds complexity, increases the risk of things going wrong.

For example if you are a family going from Liverpool to Paris, the extra hassle and things that can go wrong when you are hauling luggage down Euston road and little Jimmy is running around up ahead getting dangerously close to the curb... "Oh the train is too much hassle and danger, let's fly instead."

The question is, unfortunately, how much public money it is worth expending to gain this comparatively small market for the railway.

Services to the continent from anywhere but London are never going to be justifiable on a commercial basis.

 

[TheWierdOne]

I wouldn't be surprised if they announced they were going to team up with Virgin or something.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Nov 2025 ==

Yes, that part was extremely interesting.

Obviously Trenitalia would need to jump through some hoops to make a service work, but if they can sort out maintenance elsewhere then they can move forward regardless. Would be ironic if Eurostar spent all their time fighting monopolistic legal battles trying to keep Virgin out of their depot , and in the meantime Trenitalia gazump them all by launching services before 2029. Trenitalia would then become the preferred operator with the most comfortable trains.

I think the latter of these two is more likely if Trenitalia can get their maintenance location sorted out in France. If you throw enough money at the problem how quickly could you build a high speed depot somewhere on LGV Nord?

 

[Austriantrain]

Services to the continent from anywhere but London are never going to be justifiable on a commercial basis.

I don’t believe that at all. Even with the Security and migration theatre, I am pretty sure Manchester and Birmingham to Paris (with HS2) should be doable.

The reason why it won’t happen is that even with some Kind of HS1-HS2 connection, such services would occupy a path on HS2 that are better and more profitably used for domestic services.

 

[Polarbear]

Notwithstanding all the interest in competing services, something really needs to be done to address capacity at Paris Gare du Nord!

Today (Friday 7 November), most departures from Paris have been delayed, due to its seeming inability to cope with the number of people passing through.

I arrived at Gare Du Nord at 11:50, for the 13:08 departure. Eurostar advised an arrival 75 minutes prior to departure. All good so far.

However, when I arrived, they hadn’t actually opened passport control/security for that departure. Consequently, the queues were stretched around the concourse.

From the time they opened up (about 5 mins after my arrival), it took over an hour to pass through customs & security. That’s without any of the extra checks that are due to be introduced.

My train has now been delayed by 15 minutes, purely because they physically can’t get everyone through the necessary processes in the allotted time. That seems to have happened repeatedly today.

(Edit: Departed GDN 25 minutes late).

Unless some serious capacity is added to the key hubs, any competition is likely to exacerbate things to a point where it’ll drive people away.

I’d forgotten just how unpleasant the Gare du Nord/Eurostar interface experience was-and I’m likely to fly next time.

 

[HSTEd]

I don’t believe that at all. Even with the Security and migration theatre, I am pretty sure Manchester and Birmingham to Paris (with HS2) should be doable.

The reason why it won’t happen is that even with some Kind of HS1-HS2 connection, such services would occupy a path on HS2 that are better and more profitably used for domestic services.

As you note, the train would not be able to justify the commercial value of a path on HS2!
It would not be able to function unless an hourly path was provided at far below its value to domestic services.

I'm of the view the market simply isn't big enough to even approach an hourly 400m path on HS2, or an hourly 240m path on the WCML.
Railways are a bulk public transport system, and we shouldn't lose sight of this.

 

[Trainbike46]

If travelling from Liverpool (or Manchester or Glasgow or wherever), I think a change in London is actually preferable.

The reason for this is simply that at best you would get 1 train per day from Manchester, to Paris only. Whereas, with a change in London, for not too much extra travel time, you get departures throughout the day, to a wider range of destinations (Lille, Brussels, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, as well as Paris), which overall is a much better proposition in my view. The walk is easy, as discussed already. For people who would rather not walk, the bus is by far the best option to St Pancras: Frequent, minimal walking, no stairs, and a short journey time.

Regarding the risk of delays on Avanti: provided you respect the relevant minimum connection time (which by my count is 35 minutes at St Pancras international, plus 15 minutes at Euston, plus between 5 and 15 minutes fixed link between the two, so at least 55-70 minutes depending on the time of day), Eurostar normally allows you to travel on the next train if you were delayed into London and that caused you to miss your Eurostar. If you want the security of a contractual right, buy your ticket to London to London International CIV, and you are covered.

 

[cle]

Saw today than BA cancelled Cologne, Stuttgart from LHR. Also Frankfurt from City which is a shock.

All of which would go somewhere in aid of helping rail demand (more likely helping LH!)

Or showing the market isn’t as big? Cologne and Frankfurt are probably the next new new places (not a re-launch?)