Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Sorcerer]

The question is: is this a last minute play by Eurostar to try and influence the decision, or is it a victory lap of sorts where Eurostar are trumpeting that they have been given the depot space?

It's hard to say, but if I had to take a guess on one of them I would lean towards the latter because it's highly unlikely the ORR would change it's decision on a last minute basis. If they did then we'd probably ending up waiting beyond the end of the month to find out. Eurostar meanwhile would be able to fully replace their old fleet and have some new stock left over for Frankfurt and Geneva expansion that would fill up the extra depot space at Temple Mills.

Jon Worth has another great analysis on the fleet order posted in another thread that I will drop here. It should be noted that this analysis is based on ordering 30 units with the option for 20 more, an option which by the sounds of it will be taken up by Eurostar if they get the extra capacity. It would certainly be a huge publicity risk to announce an intention for 50 trains, some of which will run to London, only to later get a stern public "No" from the ORR.

I don't want to quote the entire analysis because I don't want to clutter the thread too much, but in short Jon theorises either a full PBA and PBKA replacement only (the most likely in his opinion), a PBA and 373 replacement, including potential redeployment of the 374 fleet, or an entire old fleet replacement which he says is possible, but would seriously reduce service and capacity over time and doesn't align with Eurostar's 2030 passenger goals.

Conclusion​

The most obvious way for Eurostar to deploy 30 Avelia Horizon trains is to replace the entire ex-Thalys PBA and PBKA fleet. Any attempt to deploy the new trains to London from day one results in a much more complicated rolling stock situation, with a mix of three types of trains incompatible with each other to be used across all the routes.

If Eurostar ever orders the 20 additional 200m Avelia Horizon trains, those would then most obviously replace the 8 400m long 373 trains (as 16 Avelia Horizons are needed to replace 8 373s).

And the 8 “extra” Avelia Horizon trains (from 26 to 30 in the first tranche, from 16 to 20 in the second tranche) then would be used for route expansion.

 

[TheWierdOne]

It's hard to say, but if I had to take a guess on one of them I would lean towards the latter because it's highly unlikely the ORR would change it's decision on a last minute basis. If they did then we'd probably ending up waiting beyond the end of the month to find out. Eurostar meanwhile would be able to fully replace their old fleet and have some new stock left over for Frankfurt and Geneva expansion that would fill up the extra depot space at Temple Mills.

I agree this sounds fairly likely, although with Eurostar and SNCF's recent behaviour I wouldn't rule this out as a desperate last-minute bid for space. I am also curious to know how the recent government tender to evaluate potential for a second UIC-compatible depot affected the ORR decision. Could it be that the government has let it be known that a second depot will be constructed once the formalities of this tender and investigation are complete, effectively clearing the way for Eurostar to remain in the original Temple Mills while competitors share space in Temple Mills 2 (Swiss-German boogaloo)?

 

[Sorcerer]

I agree this sounds fairly likely, although with Eurostar and SNCF's recent behaviour I wouldn't rule this out as a desperate last-minute bid for space. I am also curious to know how the recent government tender to evaluate potential for a second UIC-compatible depot affected the ORR decision. Could it be that the government has let it be known that a second depot will be constructed once the formalities of this tender and investigation are complete, effectively clearing the way for Eurostar to remain in the original Temple Mills while competitors share space in Temple Mills 2 (Swiss-German boogaloo)?

I think based on how things are built in this country any competitors sharing a space in another UIC-compatible depot will be a long way off. Like I've said previously, I doubt SNCF through Eurostar will be able to block competitors from Temple Mills, so this could just as well be a last-minute desperate bid for space. My prediction at this point is that if Eurostar doesn't get the extra space, Trenitalia will.

 

[TheWierdOne]

I think based on how things are built in this country any competitors sharing a space in another UIC-compatible depot will be a long way off. Like I've said previously, I doubt SNCF through Eurostar will be able to block competitors from Temple Mills, so this could just as well be a last-minute desperate bid for space. My prediction at this point is that if Eurostar doesn't get the extra space, Trenitalia will.

I think that Virgin are in with a shot but I would agree that Trenitalia are the forerunners, given that they have (barring the Chunnel fire regs) a train that is essentially pre-approved for French and HS1 operation, with sufficient units on order. Operationally speaking HS1 is an LGV which they are well-versed in operating on. I wouldn't count Virgin out entirely, I could see Branson heading for a reduced service that focuses on Amsterdam and Brussels with German expansion while leaving Trenitalia to the London-Paris route with expansion to Italy, and in that scenario I think he could definitely stomach sharing a depot with Trenitalia if he thought he could get them to cough up towards a second depot.

As an aside to the above, Orient Way sidings are 200m and owned by LSPH but currently leased to GA, meaning they could be adapted by LSPH into a depot for international operators that is mostly if not entirely independent of TMI. If Trenitalia and/or Virginstar can find enough stabling space on the continent you could squish in a maintenance shed covering some roads with space outside to stable and prep trains, and probably with sufficient room to allow Trenitalia and Virginstar to cohabit if they place nicely.

 

[Sorcerer]

I think that Virgin are in with a shot but I would agree that Trenitalia are the forerunners, given that they have (barring the Chunnel fire regs) a train that is essentially pre-approved for French and HS1 operation, with sufficient units on order.

I wouldn't count out Virgin either, but I also think the tunnel fire regulations in Italy aren't too unlike that of the Channel Tunnel (especially given that Florence-Bologna is mostly in tunnel for a longer portion of it's journey), so Trenitalia have a train that's likely also sufficient for the Channel Tunnel as well.

 

[Trainbike46]

My hope is that Trenitalia will get some space in the UK, and that they will include a daily Milan train.

There's something about Virgin that I find very unlikeable, but I can't figure out what exactly it is. I have a lot of confidence in Trenitalia's ability to run a good service, and tbh my experiences with Eurostar have been overwhelmingly positive as well.

 

[FlyingPotato]

I don't think Virgin is a good choice to be a competitor based on the agreements between Virgin Atlantic and Eurostar through Virgin Red and Eurostar joining Skyteam

They have some aligned interests due to this and may collude

Trenitalita is the better choice for pure competition reasons and since they already compete with the SNCF

 

[TheWierdOne]

I don't think Virgin is a good choice to be a competitor based on the agreements between Virgin Atlantic and Eurostar through Virgin Red and Eurostar joining Skyteam

They have some aligned interests due to this and may collude

Trenitalita is the better choice for pure competition reasons and since they already compete with the SNCF

Virgin would have to be extremely thick to collude with Eurostar. While Virgin is not above killing competition where it can (see the WCML moderation of competition clause), colluding with Eurostar would cause multiple government authorities to come down on them like a ton of proverbial bricks, especially given how much the DfT really did not like Virgin to start with when they ran the WCML.

 

[CdBrux]

If the trainsets are 200m long and not 400m long does that mean some other maintenance options are available and not just Temple Mills as a 400m long maintenance road (or whatever the terminology is) is no longer a requirement?

 

[Sorcerer]

If the trainsets are 200m long and not 400m long does that mean some other maintenance options are available and not just Temple Mills as a 400m long maintenance road (or whatever the terminology is) is no longer a requirement?

Probably not on the UK side since the rest of the mainline network doesn't have the loading gauge clearance to allow the new stock to reach another depot, but maybe on the continental side if there is room for them.

 

[StephenHunter]

Can't you put something close to the line in East London or Kent?

 

[LLivery]

Can't you put something close to the line in East London or Kent?

The government has called for interest in expanding "international depot capacity" - (thread). Estimated contract dates Sept 2027 - Aug 2029.

Trenitalia wants to be up and running by 2029.

Saying that, the Eurostar fleet and therefore expansion, doesn't come online until 2031 at the earliest. So if a new depot was built by 2031, they'd only need to share Temple Mills for 2 years, which should absolutely be possible considering what the ORR have already said

 

[zwk500]

Can't you put something close to the line in East London or Kent?

Not in East London without demolishing a lot. Kent the nearest site to London is around Singlewell loops south of Ebbsfleet.

 

[Brubulus]

The government has called for interest in expanding "international depot capacity" - (thread). Estimated contract dates Sept 2027 - Aug 2029.

Trenitalia wants to be up and running by 2029.

Saying that, the Eurostar fleet and therefore expansion, doesn't come online until 2031 at the earliest. So if a new depot was built by 2031, they'd only need to share Temple Mills for 2 years, which should absolutely be possible considering what the ORR have already said

This seems like what will happen - temporary sharing of Temple Mills followed by full new depot. Said depot will likely be either at Orient Way or at Singlewell - depending on if St Pancras Highspeed agrees to charge less for empty stock movements as such a depot location could get expensive very quickly, though this needs to be taken into account with the cost of land in London.

 

[Sorcerer]

The government has called for interest in expanding "international depot capacity" - (thread). Estimated contract dates Sept 2027 - Aug 2029.

Trenitalia wants to be up and running by 2029.

Saying that, the Eurostar fleet and therefore expansion, doesn't come online until 2031 at the earliest. So if a new depot was built by 2031, they'd only need to share Temple Mills for 2 years, which should absolutely be possible considering what the ORR have already said

I hope the country is able to build depots better than new routes, because if the Elizabeth Line or HS2 is anything to go by then these contract dates seem very optimistic and might end up seeing delays and cost overruns even despite fewer NIMBYs and probably fewer design changes mid-construction. But I suppose even if Eurostar gets granted the extra space at Temple Mills then any competitors will be keen on using the new depot elsewhere, though empty stock movements will be kind of a sunk cost unless the track owners don't charge them for it.

 

[zwk500]

This seems like what will happen - temporary sharing of Temple Mills followed by full new depot. Said depot will likely be either at Orient Way or at Singlewell - depending on if St Pancras Highspeed agrees to charge less for empty stock movements as such a depot location could get expensive very quickly, though this needs to be taken into account with the cost of land in London.

Orient Way would mean evicting GA. There will be costs involved for *somebody* to relocate them elsewhere. I suspect there will be a lot of discussion between all relevant parties (remembering that GA's new sole shareholder is one H.M. Government) about the relative burden of costs between them for the options.

 

[popeter45]

Orient Way would mean evicting GA. There will be costs involved for *somebody* to relocate them elsewhere. I suspect there will be a lot of discussion between all relevant parties (remembering that GA's new sole shareholder is one H.M. Government) about the relative burden of costs between them for the options.

its for sure a Pratical option as there are more options for a new GA Depo than a new HS1 Depo location wise along the Lea Valley

 

[Bald Rick]

its for sure a Pratical option as there are more options for a new GA Depo than a new HS1 Depo location wise along the Lea Valley

Orient way is not a depot. It is sidings for berthing trains between the peaks. A replacement would need to be near London, as there isn’t capacity to get the trains far out of London. Options are limited, potentially to zero.

 

[zwk500]

its for sure a Pratical option as there are more options for a new GA Depo than a new HS1 Depo location wise along the Lea Valley

We had this in the last thread (or possible earlier in this one!) but for fun, please could you nominate a suitable site that would provide sufficient capacity for GA without requiring any additional Crew or Unit diagrams to make the plan work?

 

[popeter45]

We had this in the last thread (or possible earlier in this one!) but for fun, please could you nominate a suitable site that would provide sufficient capacity for GA without requiring any additional Crew or Unit diagrams to make the plan work?

if going for fun suggestions that would no nowhere, Lea Interchange Bus Garage could be moved/ reduced in size and that would give a similar size area thats actually closer to London

 

[Brubulus]

if going for fun suggestions that would no nowhere, Lea Interchange Bus Garage could be moved/ reduced in size and that would give a similar size area thats actually closer to London

There's also space for a few 720s at Aldersbrook, but that might be hard to get to. Lea Interchange bus depot is a decent site, but it would mean no more train wash at that location.

 

[zwk500]

if going for fun suggestions that would no nowhere, Lea Interchange Bus Garage could be moved/ reduced in size and that would give a similar size area thats actually closer to London

I was talking.about genuine proposals, because what happens to the buses in this situation?

 

[Zomboid]

Bus depots don't have to be adjacent to a railway line so they're easier to relocate.
There's some derelict looking waterworks on the opposite side of Orient Way, off Gateway Road which might be suitable for a bus depot.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Bus depots don't have to be adjacent to a railway line so they're easier to relocate.
There's some derelict looking waterworks on the opposite side of Orient Way, off Gateway Road which might be suitable for a bus depot.

Or you could do something similar to what the MTA did with the Hudson Yards in New York and just rebuild the bus station on an elevated platform over new stabling sidings. If you can put a skyscraper on a platform a bus station shouldn't be too tricky

 

[zwk500]

Or you could do something similar to what the MTA did with the Hudson Yards in New York and just rebuild the bus station on an elevated platform over new stabling sidings. If you can put a skyscraper on a platform a bus station shouldn't be too tricky

You can do anything, providing somebody's paying. Who would be paying for this proposal?

 

[TheWierdOne]

You can do anything, providing somebody's paying. Who would be paying for this proposal?

One might be able to persuade a combo of TfL/Mayor of London and LSPH to cough up if it means a decent boost to international services to/from London on HS1. You wouldn't even need to elevate the maintenance shed as the Southeast section of the yard is long enough for 200m sidings. You'd literally be building a concrete slab with enough load-bearing capacity to hold a few dozen double decker buses with a ramp up to it. Relatively cheap overall, and if you borrow a depot designer from Hong Kong (HK has at least one bus depot that is seven levels stacked on top of each other.) you could probably get at least a couple of levels of bus storage stacked over the sidings depending on requirements from TfL.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Oct 2025 ==

DfT looking for partner for new international depot to complement Temple Mills

Department for Transport issues Preliminary Market Engagement Notice for partnership for second international rail depot.

www.railmagazine.com

RAIL understands the DfT wants a new depot completed in the early 2030s.

It’s thought two of the potential options are Orient Way Traincare Depot, currently sub-leased by Eurostar to Network Rail for use by Greater Anglia (GA), and Lea Interchange Bus Garage.

Both are adjacent to TMI, although no final decision has been made. GA told RAIL it was not aware of any planned changes to its arrangements at Orient Way.

Well would you look at that, Rail Magazine is reporting this morning that two options are Orient Way sidings or Lea Interchange bus depot.

 

[NCT]

Who owns the freehold of Orient Way?

 

[SynthD]

Or you could do something similar to what the MTA did with the Hudson Yards in New York and just rebuild the bus station on an elevated platform over new stabling sidings. If you can put a skyscraper on a platform a bus station shouldn't be too tricky

Westbourne Park bus garage is elevated over some of Paddington New Yard, so this isn't new to London.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Who owns the freehold of Orient Way?

I want to say that Orient Way is part of the HS1 concession, and is leased from LSPH to GA, perhaps someone more knowledgeable can confirm/deny?

 

[Snow1964]

ORR allows Virgin to use Temple Mills depot

Rail regulator, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), has today (Thursday 30 October) approved Virgin Trains’ application for access to Temple Mills International depot. Access to Temple Mills is an important first step towards being able to operate cross border train services using the channel tunnel.

This decision unlocks plans for around £700mn of investment in new services and the creation of 400 new jobs, in a win for passengers, customer choice, and economic growth. Virgin Trains can now be confident it will have access to the light maintenance facilities it needs to run its planned international services.

ORR set out its decision to approve Virgin Trains’ application, and reject applications from Evolyn, Gemini and Trenitalia, in a decision letter today. Informed by independent analysis, and having also considered Eurostar’s growth plans, the regulator considers that Virgin Trains has the strongest prospects of making the best use of capacity at Temple Mills.

Overall, Virgin Trains’ plans were more financially and operationally robust than those of other applicants, and it provided clear evidence of investor backing and an agreement in principle to deliver the necessary and appropriate rolling stock.

ORR carefully weighed its legal duties to reach this decision, including considering the views of stakeholders and the economic benefits of the plans.

Many stakeholders wrote to ORR to welcome the prospect of competition on the High Speed 1 line, which is expected to increase choice for passengers, and many also wrote concerning the reopening of stations in Kent. ORR’s decision today however strictly concerns access to Temple Mills; it does not, and ORR cannot, require Virgin Trains to run specific services or stop them from changing what destinations they plan to serve.

There are a number of steps before new international services will be able to run. Virgin Trains will now need to enter into a commercial agreement with Eurostar, as the operator of Temple Mills, and must secure finance, access to track and stations, and safety approvals from ORR and the relevant authorities in the EU. Virgin Trains plans to begin running services in 2030.

The timeline so far:

1. ORR received depot access applications from:
   1. Evolyn Mobility Ltd.: 23 August 2024
   2. Virgin Trains Europe Holdings Limited, referred to as Virgin Trains: 23 October 2024
   3. Gemini Trains: 28 February 2025
   4. Trenitalia France: 28 March 2025
2. ORR also reviewed depot use expansion plans from Eurostar International Ltd: 18 July 2025

Rail regulator opens door to future international train services with Temple Mills access approval for Virgin Trains | Office of Rail and Road

Rail regulator, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), has today (Thursday 30 October) approved Virgin Trains’ application for access to Temple Mills International depot. Access to Temple Mills is an important first step towards being able to operate cross border train services using the channel tunnel.

www.orr.gov.uk