Potential disruption from storm Brian 21/10 & 22/10

[Cowley]

Got to say that I think this storm has been rather over-egged. It's not unusual for Atlantic systems to undergo rapid cyclogenesis especially in the Autumn. The "Weather bomb" phrase has been adopted by the media to basically describe a pretty normal Autumnal Atlantic storm. There will be heavy rain, gusty winds, a few branches down but that's at least an annual event somewhere in the British Isles.

As usual the Met Office's more sober predictions will be on or close to the money and in a few days one of the rags will be banging on about our upcoming "Worst Ever Winter", even though the most expert meteorologist would struggle to correctly forecast the weather for the second week in November, let alone the next 5 months.

Edit: Just checked the most reliable short term weather model, maximum gusts on exposed Western coasts around 50mph, 40mph inland. Not in any way unusual, that's not to say somewhere on the network will be unlucky and cop a bit of debris.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[pompeyfan]

Tree down at Swanwick, ESO affecting the Netley and Botley lines.

 

[aar0]

What stretch is this ? There is a weather related 50mph restriction between Bridgend and Gloucester and over the Golden Valley

That was just between Swansea and Port Talbot. Guard said before we left that we'd be limited to 50 until Gloucester, just pulled into Cardiff ~12 late.

 

[simdmuk]

EMT are describing the storm as "Exceptional" which it isn't and are to short form some services tomorrow....
https://www.eastmidlandstrains.co.u...e-trains-have-fewer-coaches-than-usual-today/

Forecasted severe weather is expected across our network from 1900 Saturday 21 October until the early hours of the morning Monday 23 October

The Met Office forecasts show that Storm Brian is expected to affect the national rail network from 1900 on Saturday 21 October until the early hours of the morning on Monday 23 October, with heavy rain and high winds predicted. We are currently expecting to run our full service but would advise that you check before you travel.

As a result of the exceptional weather conditions Storm Brian is predicted to bring, some trains are running with fewer coaches than usual. We know that it can be uncomfortable to travel on a very busy train and we apologise for the inconvenience this may cause. We've made this decision to minimise the damage caused to our train fleet as a result of the severe weather and to ensure we are able to run our full service on weekdays when our services are at their busiest....

 

[D1009]

EMT are describing the storm as "Exceptional" which it isn't and are to short form some services tomorrow....
https://www.eastmidlandstrains.co.u...e-trains-have-fewer-coaches-than-usual-today/

How do you define "exxceptional"?

 

[tiptoptaff]

The 50s were Carmarthen to Bridgend, and Bridgend to Awre loop (on the Severn Tunnel Jcn-Glos line) line speed is usually higher along there although there are a few restrictions that are a lot lower for tight curves and some bridges

 

[Bletchleyite]

It appears that SWR are missing Clapham Junction stops on some faster services which is a bit of a nuisance.

 

[PHILIPE]

Buses on Cambrian between Barmouth and Harlech due to the sea defences breached by storm surge and high tide at Llanaber

 

[hooverboy]

Got to say that I think this storm has been rather over-egged. It's not unusual for Atlantic systems to undergo rapid cyclogenesis especially in the Autumn. The "Weather bomb" phrase has been adopted by the media to basically describe a pretty normal Autumnal Atlantic storm. There will be heavy rain, gusty winds, a few branches down but that's at least an annual event somewhere in the British Isles.

As usual the Met Office's more sober predictions will be on or close to the money and in a few days one of the rags will be banging on about our upcoming "Worst Ever Winter", even though the most expert meteorologist would struggle to correctly forecast the weather for the second week in November, let alone the next 5 months.

Edit: Just checked the most reliable short term weather model, maximum gusts on exposed Western coasts around 50mph, 40mph inland. Not in any way unusual, that's not to say somewhere on the network will be unlucky and cop a bit of debris.

got to agree. there 's a bit of bluster but not much wailing and gnashing of teeth.frankly no much more than a typical autumnal weekend.I think media heve certainly sensationalised it. I was camping in the tail end of the last serious one(1987).that was interesting.Do have a story or two to tell there.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Buses on Cambrian between Barmouth and Harlech due to the sea defences breached by storm surge and high tide at Llanaber

Good job I went to the Isle of Wight today. I was also considering Wales...

 

[Harbouring]

Good job I went to the Isle of Wight today. I was also considering Wales...

Not on the hover though I take it? I bet the cat was a bit Rocky out on the Solent

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not on the hover though I take it? I bet the cat was a bit Rocky out on the Solent

The hover is off and I think has been all day. The cat was a bit bouncy but a lot smoother than I expected and punctuality seems not to be being affected.

 

[bussnapperwm]

High tide is due soon in Dawlish so we shall see what happens..

 

[221129]

High tide is due soon in Dawlish so we shall see what happens..

nothing.

 

[Smidster]

While it, fortunately, seems to have been a bit of a dud down south once again it is not good at all in the North.

At the moment flooding is causing issues on:

Calder Valley - including between Manchester and Todmorden and Sewerby Bridge to Hebden Bridge
Manchester - Clitheroe
Wigan and Southport
Bolton and Blackburn

Hopefully the rain will stop soon!

 

[Busaholic]

Got to say that I think this storm has been rather over-egged. It's not unusual for Atlantic systems to undergo rapid cyclogenesis especially in the Autumn. The "Weather bomb" phrase has been adopted by the media to basically describe a pretty normal Autumnal Atlantic storm. There will be heavy rain, gusty winds, a few branches down but that's at least an annual event somewhere in the British Isles.

As usual the Met Office's more sober predictions will be on or close to the money and in a few days one of the rags will be banging on about our upcoming "Worst Ever Winter", even though the most expert meteorologist would struggle to correctly forecast the weather for the second week in November, let alone the next 5 months.

Edit: Just checked the most reliable short term weather model, maximum gusts on exposed Western coasts around 50mph, 40mph inland. Not in any way unusual, that's not to say somewhere on the network will be unlucky and cop a bit of debris.

Michael Fish has to take the blame for this - or rather, the Met Office does, although Fish's reluctance to accept he got it wrong only exacerbated this. My father-in-law attended a talk given by Fish in Lancashire a year or two after 1987 and he was surprisingly unbridled, especially in the Q&A session, exposing the tensions between the individual forecasters and their apparent hatred of Bill Giles, who was Chief Forecaster at the time and on whom Fish placed the blame fair and square! Ever since, the forecasters have over-egged the possibilities on the whole, although they certainly under-estimated a couple of weather events down here in the SW, in early 1990s and more recently when the line at Dawlish got washed away.

 

[tsr]

Most of the blanket speed restrictions in Kent and Sussex have now been withdrawn due to a lack of available severe weather conditions...

 

[Darandio]

Michael Fish has to take the blame for this - or rather, the Met Office does, although Fish's reluctance to accept he got it wrong only exacerbated this.

And as we all know, technically he got nothing wrong. A woman suggested a hurricane was approaching, there wasn't.

their apparent hatred of Bill Giles, who was Chief Forecaster at the time and on whom Fish placed the blame fair and square!

And entirely correct too, Giles has since admitted he was to blame for the forecast provided to Fish.

 

[Busaholic]

And as we all know, technically he got nothing wrong. A woman suggested a hurricane was approaching, there wasn't.



And entirely correct too, Giles has since admitted he was to blame for the forecast provided to Fish.

Yes, pedantry at its best: merely hurricane-force winds rather than a hurricane. The woman got it right and 22 people lost their lives in England.

 

[Darandio]

Yes, pedantry at its best: merely hurricane-force winds rather than a hurricane. The woman got it right and 22 people lost their lives in England.

It's not pedantry at all, we could have a chat all night about the many reasons why it wasn't a hurricane. You blamed Michael Fish, you said that by not accepting he was wrong has made it worse. All utter guff.

The MET got it wrong, they often do.

 

[STANDISH]

The only good news about the storm in 1987 was it happened during the night across Southern England. Just imagine if this had occurred during the day time.

 

[daikilo]

Where I live, the showers started a little earlier than predicted so, having started work, I got a little wet, but they were showers and we eventually completed the planned activitty when dryness prevailed.

 

[zuriblue]

I was at the Etihad yesterday and it was coming down so hard that I ended up abandoning my seat and watching from the concourse. But it wasn’t a hurricane, it was a heavy Autumn storm.

 

[zuriblue]

Or to put it another way, Brian wasn’t a hurricane, just a very naughty boy.

 

[hawk1911]

Got caught up in the flooding, yesterday, travelling on the 17:43 Bradford Interchange to Manchester Victoria service.

Just before Hebden Bridge we were advised that the service would terminate there, as the flooding, by that time, would not allow the service to return from Manchester later and Northern didn't want the train crew 'trapped' in Manchester. The following Leeds-Brighouse-Manchester service was also terminated at Hebden Bridge, before the following train was allowed to proceed to Manchester Victoria. That might have been the last train through as, I understand, the line was then closed in both directions, with no alternative road transport available for Hebden Bridge.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Was Hebden Bridge cut off by all roads? If not, why no road transport?

 

[hawk1911]

Was Hebden Bridge cut off by all roads? If not, why no road transport?

That's what Northern were saying. However, I noticed later that they were advising passengers to organise their own transport and submit claims to them afterwards.

EDIT [UPDATE]: I've just had another look at Northern's twitter feed. The advice, about organising own transport and claiming back, seems to have disappeared and been replaced with lots of messages about not being able to claim any alternative transport back.

 

[Wivenswold]

Yes, pedantry at its best: merely hurricane-force winds rather than a hurricane. The woman got it right and 22 people lost their lives in England.

The woman did not get it right, her son had observed a hurricane over the USA and suggested it looked like it was heading towards the UK it would have had to have travelled at about 800 miles per hour to make it the UK that same evening. The storm which caused the damage and 18 tragic deaths in the UK evolved in the Bay of Biscay and undertook rapid cyclogenesis. The Met Office forecast the storm would cross the North of France that night. There were errors in their calculations which didn't take into account the presence of a "sting jet", a weather phenomenon that scientists had not yet discovered. It was pure banter at the start of a forecast that is often cut before Michael Fish went on to add "But it is going to be a very windy night for some".

Luckily the methods of forecasting are better these days, but it's a complex science and will never be perfect.

Don't fall for the media narrative, they get it wrong most of the time, the Met Office had it spot on this week and last weekend too. The Standard reported confidently that 135 mph winds would hit the UK having quoted an Irish Met Office webpage which threatened 135 km/h gusts on exposed coastal areas (that's actually 84 mph and not unusual on west-facing Atlantic coasts).

Time to stop believing the printed press's often skewed narrative and listen to the experts.

 

[hawk1911]

I seem to have got involved in a twitter debate, with Northern Rail, over last night's abandonment of passengers due to the flooding between Halifax and Rochdale.

All services, through Hebden Bridge, were suspended last night and passengers told that no alternative road transport was available “due to road flooding”. Strangely a number of passengers were able to organise their own transport (taxis), which were able to get through these flooded roads.

Subsequently, Northern have been telling those passengers (who they abandoned) that they will not refund these alternative transport costs.

I have suggested, to Northern, that they are liable, for the following reasons:

1. Under National Rail Conditions of Travel 28.1 “If disruption prevents you from completing the journey shown on your Ticket, any Train Company will, where it reasonably can, provide you with alternative means of travel to your destination, or if necessary provide overnight accommodation for you.”
   
   
2. Under Northern Rail's 'Customer Promise' document, page 8, Northern's PROMISE if you are delayed is “If you have a valid ticket and you are delayed, we will get you to the destination on your ticket (or a reasonable alternative station). We might not be able to do this by train, which is why we have contracts with bus companies and taxi firms. In the unlikely event that we cannot get you to your destination, we will provide overnight accommodation.”
   
   
3. Under the ATOC approved code of practice, regarding disruptions, “Customers should not be required to pay more because of disruption. In the event that they are forced to pay more, ‘no quibble’ refunds should be pro-actively provided.”
   

Whilst 1 could be debated, regarding whether or not they reasonably could provide alternative transport (remember passengers were able to organise their own taxis), 2 and 3 are unequivocal, i.e. “we will” and “no quibble refunds”.