Post-HS2 ECML & MML

[quantinghome]

I've been thinking about what will happen to the 'classic' main lines in on the East side of the country post-HS2. There has been discussion previously about the frequency of service that ought to be provided from Leeds and Wakefield down the ECML to London. However, I think this misses the point. Once HS2 Phase 2b is complete, passengers using the classic services will be those going to and from intermediate stations (even if the overall service does run from Leeds to London).

Leeds is currently served by the ECML because the route has a speed advantage over the MML, bypassing the larger towns and cities in the midlands. However, post-HS2 connectivity becomes more important than speed, so the MML would appear to be the more obvious route for classic services as the intermediate stations serve much larger towns and cities.

The ECML could then be used for increased services from East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire to London, and also new cross-country services from Yorkshire and the North-east to East Anglia.

 

[TheDavibob]

Yes, I think there's a large scope for opening up Stansted as a second "Southern Terminus" of the ECML, as it were, with services running from the North-east to it, branching off at Peterborough (which would, of course, necessitate electrification between Peterborough and Ely). I imagine this would require work being done to Stansted station itself, but would offer good connectivity with Cambridge and open up East Anglia. Essentially HS22b would allow relief of Kings Cross from the fasts running from Leeds and north, freeing up space south of Doncaster for trains not going to London.

Potentially Norwich could also serve as a third ECML "southern" terminus, but this would involve an awkward turnback at Ely.

 

[edwin_m]

Leeds is currently served by the ECML because the route has a speed advantage over the MML, bypassing the larger towns and cities in the midlands. However, post-HS2 connectivity becomes more important than speed, so the MML would appear to be the more obvious route for classic services as the intermediate stations serve much larger towns and cities.

Interesting thought. Leeds-Leicester-London trains could use HS2 southwards from Leeds and transfer to classic route either at Toton or via a connection north of Sheffield.

 

[Grimsby town]

Yes, I think there's a large scope for opening up Stansted as a second "Southern Terminus" of the ECML, as it were, with services running from the North-east to it, branching off at Peterborough (which would, of course, necessitate electrification between Peterborough and Ely). I imagine this would require work being done to Stansted station itself, but would offer good connectivity with Cambridge and open up East Anglia. Essentially HS22b would allow relief of Kings Cross from the fasts running from Leeds and north, freeing up space south of Doncaster for trains not going to London.

Potentially Norwich could also serve as a third ECML "southern" terminus, but this would involve an awkward turnback at Ely.

This probably most likely to happen. Cambridge is expanding rapidly and it's economic pull is huge and Stansted is an important airport for the east of the country. I can see hourly Newcastle to Stansted and Leeds to Stansted trains being introduced after HS2.

I think it is important to remember that there will still be sizable places such as Doncaster, Wakefield, Peterborough and Leicester wholly dependent on these lines for London service so we shouldn't just switch to all shacks for every service. Hopefully there will remain a few quicker services calling at only important places.

With the ECML there is fairly large settlements without stations. I currently live in Bawtry and go to uni in Leeds. To get to Leeds I have to get a 30 minute bus journey to Doncaster and change for the train there. If there was a station this could cut my overall travel time by around 40 minutes.

 

[NotATrainspott]

I think 2tph might be a bit much given the relative lack of ECML destinations in the middle of the country. A link via EWR through to Oxford would be just as useful even after HS2 speeds up Yorkshire-Birmingham journeys.

 

[Bald Rick]

This probably most likely to happen. Cambridge is expanding rapidly and it's economic pull is huge and Stansted is an important airport for the east of the country. I can see hourly Newcastle to Stansted and Leeds to Stansted trains being introduced after HS2.

Given that the Stansted branch is already at maximum capacity, there won't be any additional trains going there from anywhere until someone builds a new tunnel into the airport.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Interesting thought. Leeds-Leicester-London trains could use HS2 southwards from Leeds and transfer to classic route either at Toton or via a connection north of Sheffield.

I would think a more likely scenario would be to travel on a HS service Leeds to Toton Interchange to board a MML service from there to Leicester. Such a MML service could then form part of a reasonably frequent non-stop service pattern (4tph?) from Leicester to London with a further 2tph providing a semi-fast service for Marketkettlingboro et al. No need to purchase more classic compatible sets than absolutely necessary.

 

[edwin_m]

I would think a more likely scenario would be to travel on a HS service Leeds to Toton Interchange to board a MML service from there to Leicester. Such a MML service could then form part of a reasonably frequent non-stop service pattern (4tph?) from Leicester to London with a further 2tph providing a semi-fast service for Marketkettlingboro et al. No need to purchase more classic compatible sets than absolutely necessary.

That's another possibility, especially as as far as I know the current plans for Toton don't include a classic connection, and if the train also serves Sheffield it's hardly worth it using HS2 just from Toton to the new connection near Tibshelf. However I'd suggest the thing to do is to extend a semi-fast rather than a fast from Leicester to Toton, because nobody would use it for through journeys to London but it would provide a useful northward connection at the intermediate stations. The Leicester fasts should continue to Derby and Nottingham to provide a fast London service to the city centre stations. It will be a few minutes quicker by changing at Toton if they get the connections there right, but many people will accept that to avoid the hassle of a change.

Incidentally use of compatible sets might not be essential for this sort of journey. Any 25kV set fitted with ERTMS will in principle be able to run on HS2 infrastructure as long as they don't stop at any of the stations (wrong platform dimensions). In practice this won't be possible between London and Birmingham because all sets have to run at the same top speed for capacity reasons, but it may be possible further north where the lines aren't fully utilised.

 

[Bantamzen]

Yes, I think there's a large scope for opening up Stansted as a second "Southern Terminus" of the ECML, as it were, with services running from the North-east to it, branching off at Peterborough (which would, of course, necessitate electrification between Peterborough and Ely). I imagine this would require work being done to Stansted station itself, but would offer good connectivity with Cambridge and open up East Anglia. Essentially HS22b would allow relief of Kings Cross from the fasts running from Leeds and north, freeing up space south of Doncaster for trains not going to London.

Potentially Norwich could also serve as a third ECML "southern" terminus, but this would involve an awkward turnback at Ely.

Is there really a market for a N/E - Stansted link? Given that airport expansion will be focused around Heathrow for international destinations now, I really can't see there being increased demand for Stansted from the North. Manchester, Newcastle, Liverpool, LBIA and Doncaster are all much closer and offer pretty much anything Stansted does between them and more. Far more likely will be the exploration of a ECML/MML/WCML/HS2 link to Heathrow to feed the new terminal.

The ECML is much more likely to see something like the Javelin services, running commuter based trains but with limited stops at higher speeds into the capital, with some N/E - London trains running in between offering competition from HS2, perhaps offered by open access companies as they do now.

 

[quantinghome]

Is there really a market for a N/E - Stansted link?

Probably not. However, there are currently no direct services from the North-east (including West and North Yorkshire) to East Anglia. This is a rather striking omission in the national network and given the number of passengers who change at Peterborough there would appear to be demand for it. The question then is where to send the trains. Cambridge, Norwich or even Ipswich would do the job. Extending to Stansted may work but only by attracting local traffic, much as the current XC service does.

The ECML is much more likely to see something like the Javelin services, running commuter based trains but with limited stops at higher speeds into the capital, with some N/E - London trains running in between offering competition from HS2, perhaps offered by open access companies as they do now.

That would be a likely scenario, but I think we'd see more of the current fast timetable slots retained for regular services from Hull and Lincolnshire to London.

 

[MonsooN]

I'd like to see more non stop services from Newcastle to London.

At the moment, there is just one per day, the 7:04 Flying Scotsman service and it takes about 2hrs 35mins. With the new Class 800s, this will probably be a bit less as they can accelerate quicker (By the time phase 2 of HS2 is built, the ECML may have 140MPH running too)

If all the Leeds trains are taken off the ECML, this will hopefully free up more capacity for more non stop services each day. This would reduce journey times from Newcastle to London from around 3 hours to less than 2.5 hours.

I'm not sure if this is possible or if it's even that simple, but this is something I'd like to see.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I'd like to see more non stop services from Newcastle to London.

At the moment, there is just one per day, the 7:04 Flying Scotsman service and it takes about 2hrs 35mins. With the new Class 800s, this will probably be a bit less as they can accelerate quicker (By the time phase 2 of HS2 is built, the ECML may have 140MPH running too)

If all the Leeds trains are taken off the ECML, this will hopefully free up more capacity for more non stop services each day. This would reduce journey times from Newcastle to London from around 3 hours to less than 2.5 hours.

I'm not sure if this is possible or if it's even that simple, but this is something I'd like to see.

Putting more non stop services on the ECML post HS2 sort of removes some of the point of building HS2 in the first place.

 

[sprinterguy]

If all the Leeds trains are taken off the ECML, this will hopefully free up more capacity for more non stop services each day. This would reduce journey times from Newcastle to London from around 3 hours to less than 2.5 hours.

Given that the London - Newcastle journey time via HS2 is proposed to be 2 hours and 18 minutes, accelerated trains via the ECML seem somewhat superfluous, and would also act to reduce the capacity freed up by HS2 which could more effectively be used to enhance service frequencies and calling patterns on the ECML south of York/Doncaster.

 

[MonsooN]

Is it going to be 2 hours and 18 minutes though? You'd have to go from Newcastle York, York to Leeds and then Leeds to London.

Lots of people (including myself, probably) will look at that and decide that two changes is to much of a faff to save approximately 30 minutes of travel time, so won't bother. Lots of people prefer to take a direct train, even if it takes slightly longer.

Just checked the Virgin website and it says that the time from Newcastle to London with the new Azuma will be around 2 hours 30 minutes. For me, it's not worth two changes to save 12 minutes.

 

[sprinterguy]

Is it going to be 2 hours and 18 minutes though? You'd have to go from Newcastle York, York to Leeds and then Leeds to London.

Why would there be any changes required? There are planned to be direct HS2 Newcastle - London trains.

 

[MonsooN]

Why would there be any changes required? There are planned to be direct HS2 Newcastle - London trains.

So the HS2 trains will go from Newcastle to Leeds on the existing network and join the HS2 infrastructure from Leeds?

This sounds more appealing, but I've not heard this before - may I ask where you got this from? (I'm not doubting you, by the way, just interested )

 

[TheDavibob]

So the HS2 trains will go from Newcastle to Leeds on the existing network and join the HS2 infrastructure from Leeds?

This sounds more appealing, but I've not heard this before - may I ask where you got this from? (I'm not doubting you, by the way, just interested )

That's the plan (and the entire point of HS2 - it's enhancing the current network, rather than sitting on top of it). There's various spread out documents, but eg

http://assets.hs2.org.uk/sites/defa...f/P2C37_Journey times and frequencies LOW.pdf

gives the planned frequency/duration of services.

Essentially, the plan is to move fast trains to London and the Midlands onto HS2 to free up space for more local services on the W/ECMLs. Since capacity isn't *as* critical north of Leeds, there's no need to build a completely new line to relieve it on this bit, instead feeding into the existing network. HS2 is definitely planned with Newcastle in mind.

 

[sprinterguy]

So the HS2 trains will go from Newcastle to Leeds on the existing network and join the HS2 infrastructure from Leeds?

This sounds more appealing, but I've not heard this before - may I ask where you got this from? (I'm not doubting you, by the way, just interested )

HS2 trains are planned to operate from Newcastle and diverge from the existing network south of Colton Junction at Church Fenton, bypassing Leeds entirely. Here, for example, is the most recently published version of the overview map of the Eastern branch of HS2, from November 2016, to give you an idea of the proposed route:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ta/file/567461/C321-MMD-RT-DPL-100-580000.pdf

Proposed frequencies, calling patterns and journey times have been provided in the likes of the HS2 Economic Case, updated in 2012, and the HS2 Phase 2 command paper published in 2013. I haven't really been keeping tabs, but there seem to have been a host of documents published since then, too.

 

[MonsooN]

Interesting - thanks for the information

 

[HSTEd]

Newcastle is going to be hurt though by the current predeliction a western HS2 route north of Manchester, assuming such a project ever takes place.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's the plan (and the entire point of HS2 - it's enhancing the current network, rather than sitting on top of it).

Indeed. Its concept is closer to a DB or SBB Neubaustrecke than a French LGV. The separate station at Birmingham is a bit of a confusing factor but is only really there because New St is full.

 

[edwin_m]

Newcastle is going to be hurt though by the current predeliction a western HS2 route north of Manchester, assuming such a project ever takes place.

Assuming you're referring to a possible western high speed link to Scotland, services on the eastern leg of HS2 phase 2 would go no further north than Newcastle whether this is built or not. Newcastle only loses out if a western high speed route to Scotland is compared with an eastern one.

 

[TheDavibob]

Assuming you're referring to a possible western high speed link to Scotland, services on the eastern leg of HS2 phase 2 would go no further north than Newcastle whether this is built or not. Newcastle only loses out if a western high speed route to Scotland is compared with an eastern one.

Feasibly could be hypothesising a loss of some Newcastle-Edinburgh services, since the London-Edinburgh ECML services will flick westwards (even with current HS2-2 plans). That said, I'm sure the slack will be picked up somehow.

 

[edwin_m]

Feasibly could be hypothesising a loss of some Newcastle-Edinburgh services, since the London-Edinburgh ECML services will flick westwards (even with current HS2-2 plans). That said, I'm sure the slack will be picked up somehow.

This would happen (if at all) at the time of HS2 Phase 2, not at the time of any high speed link extending to Scotland.

 

[HSTEd]

Assuming you're referring to a possible western high speed link to Scotland, services on the eastern leg of HS2 phase 2 would go no further north than Newcastle whether this is built or not. Newcastle only loses out if a western high speed route to Scotland is compared with an eastern one.

Well yes, which is precisely what I am referring to.
Newcastle ends up only ten minutes closer to London (and by extension the bulk of the English population) than Edinburgh.

This would leave Newcastle in the doldrums compared to where it should be given its geographical location.

 

[quantinghome]

Well yes, which is precisely what I am referring to.
Newcastle ends up only ten minutes closer to London (and by extension the bulk of the English population) than Edinburgh.

This would leave Newcastle in the doldrums compared to where it should be given its geographical location.

Doesn't air travel effectively produce this situation already?

 

[HSTEd]

Doesn't air travel effectively produce this situation already?

Somewhat, but the psychological barriers to air travel amongst much of the british population mean that is only a limited effect.
And air travel has nothing like the capacity of a high speed line.

 

[The Ham]

Assuming you're referring to a possible western high speed link to Scotland, services on the eastern leg of HS2 phase 2 would go no further north than Newcastle whether this is built or not. Newcastle only loses out if a western high speed route to Scotland is compared with an eastern one.

I would suggest that HS2 services could still continue to travel beyond Newcastle even with a western HS line to Scotland.

The reason for this is that although noone would be traveling to Scotland from London or Birmingham there will still be passengers from the East Midlands, York and Newcastle who will still wish to travel to Scotland.

Now currently there may not be a lot of people wishing to do this, however it is a lot current a lot more people than was the case when the Mark 4's were introduced and HS2 is based on broadly a doubling of passengers between now and 2033.

As such there could be a case for a 200m long half set (circa 500 seats) to continue to Scotland on a semi frequent basis (say every 2 hours) becoming semi fast and calling at the semi major stations such as Berwick.

There could then an additional service in between those that calls at the same semi major stations North of Newcastle which then continues south on the ECML.

It's not going to be the same as we have now with lots of busy trains heading through Newcastle, but then a lot of people may not even look up as they pass through, let alone get of the train. As such shifting those people to another route probably won't make much difference.

Having said that, the could be some who it for the longer route, especially if there are cheaper tickets to be had by heading east.

Of course it could be that by the time of the Scottish HS line (or within a short time of it opening) that there is demand for an eastern HS line via Cambridge which could speed up journey times to Newcastle from London a little and free up paths for more western services.

 

[edwin_m]

I would suggest that HS2 services could still continue to travel beyond Newcastle even with a western HS line to Scotland.

The reason for this is that although noone would be traveling to Scotland from London or Birmingham there will still be passengers from the East Midlands, York and Newcastle who will still wish to travel to Scotland.

Now currently there may not be a lot of people wishing to do this, however it is a lot current a lot more people than was the case when the Mark 4's were introduced and HS2 is based on broadly a doubling of passengers between now and 2033.

As such there could be a case for a 200m long half set (circa 500 seats) to continue to Scotland on a semi frequent basis (say every 2 hours) becoming semi fast and calling at the semi major stations such as Berwick.

There could then an additional service in between those that calls at the same semi major stations North of Newcastle which then continues south on the ECML.

It's not going to be the same as we have now with lots of busy trains heading through Newcastle, but then a lot of people may not even look up as they pass through, let alone get of the train. As such shifting those people to another route probably won't make much difference.

Having said that, the could be some who it for the longer route, especially if there are cheaper tickets to be had by heading east.

Of course it could be that by the time of the Scottish HS line (or within a short time of it opening) that there is demand for an eastern HS line via Cambridge which could speed up journey times to Newcastle from London a little and free up paths for more western services.

There is some sort of case for that, and lack of an obvious route between Nottingham/Leicester and Scotland probably does depress passenger numbers today. However there is evidently not enough of a case for HS2 to think it is worth doing, as no published HS2 service pattern has shown anything between Newcastle and Edinburgh. If Rail North, Transport Scotland and any equivalent Midlands body thought it was necessary then they would probably be expected to pay for the extra trains and any route upgrade needed.

 

[TheDavibob]

There is some sort of case for that, and lack of an obvious route between Nottingham/Leicester and Scotland probably does depress passenger numbers today. However there is evidently not enough of a case for HS2 to think it is worth doing, as no published HS2 service pattern has shown anything between Newcastle and Edinburgh. If Rail North, Transport Scotland and any equivalent Midlands body thought it was necessary then they would probably be expected to pay for the extra trains and any route upgrade needed.

I think I agree - provided there are still ECML and XCountry services running from York (and picking up Sheffield and Leeds) and trans-Pennine services doing what they feel like, and the odd extra Northern service, there are very few places that would have any benefit from an eastern high-speed line, capacity aside. Sheffield and Leeds would gain little time benefit (as most of the line isn't high-speed), Newcastle wouldn't really gain anything, so only the East Midlands stands to gain anything. Looking at it, it would be quicker to go from Nottingham, into Birmingham and up to Edinburgh than the journey today takes, with favourable connections at Birmingham Interchange (which should be part of the point of it) the benefit of high-speed from Toton to Leeds vanishes.