Post Covid Passenger Rebound

[Annetts key]

This photo shows coach B of 1A07 on route to London Paddington (a peak time train) with most seats empty.

 

[Ken H]

Business travel had collapsed we hear. There are shedloads of high capacity bimodeds not earning their keep. Perhaps some of those could be repurposed to be used on leisure routes.

 

[driverd]

Of course there is much variety based on geographic location, but it would appear commuting is bouncing back quite well in the North. Evening peaks often resemble, well, evening peaks - with trains regularly full and standing.

I don't think there will be too much damage to revenue, up here, either. Indeed, I remember well how much we had it drilled into us that [a North of England serving TOCs] revenue is 70% leisure, around 20% commuter and 10% business - so in theory, that shortfall shouldn't be too dramatic, especially if leisure can be grown.

I think, at present, the real barrier to growth is the DfT/Treasury tightening the purse strings, right at the time the TOCs need the discretion to spend money where its needed (ie: to reinstate culled services). Indeed, I'm well aware just how much the lack of a will to invest frustrates friends in the strategic planning side of the industry, as they simply can't make decisions to react to demand as they used to.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Of course there is much variety based on geographic location, but it would appear commuting is bouncing back quite well in the North. Evening peaks often resemble, well, evening peaks - with trains regularly full and standing.

That could partly be down to a reduced service still running. Certainly at Buckshaw Parkway things are nowhere near back to normal. Pre Covid the large car park was full, as were the surrounding roads, before the end of the morning peak. These days the car park is probably 1/2 - 2/3 full.

 

[ainsworth74]

Business travel had collapsed we hear. There are shedloads of high capacity bimodeds not earning their keep. Perhaps some of those could be repurposed to be used on leisure routes.

But they tend to be one and the same at least on long distance operators. Or are the hoards of people transported by LNER on a Saturday and Sunday not leisure travellers?

 

[43066]

This photo shows coach B of 1A07 on route to London Paddington (a peak time train) with most seats empty.
View attachment 112823

By contrast my trains into work this morning (a peak time SE metro service
then a Thameslink through the core) were both full and standing, and I had to fight my way along the platform at my London terminal due to several hundred coming off one of our inbound services.

People are coming back alright.

 

[nw1]

I guess keeping spare DMUs with all their associated electrical & mechanical equipment to maintain, works out significantly more expensive than the traditional practice of having spare loco hauled stock available in various sidings.

True but given we don't have a load of spare hauled stock, having backup (older) DMUs would make sense.

 

[Bikeman78]

I’m currently on a 80X train, which reminds me that it would help to encourage repeat business from passengers if the seats were far more comfortable…

And also it would help if the design of the train and the maintenance of the track were better. When travelling at 125MPH (or thereabouts), it’s not nice to experience ‘train turbulence’, where the coach judders up and down.

Every little helps as a certain supermarket advert goes…

And yes, I appreciate that the horrible 80X seats (at least the GWR IET / IEP) have almost certainly already been discussed to death somewhere here already.

I don’t want to reopen a discussion on any specific trains. Just make the general point that generally speaking the seats, comfort and ride quality of road cars is continuously getting better, but the opposite appears to be happening on the railways.

In the past few weeks I've heard several people around Cambridge, all young women as it happens, comment on how comfy the seats are on the class 317s. No doubt they are used to the class 720s. It's often claimed that only enthusiasts moan about the hard seats. Evidently this is not entirely true.

And yes I know what you mean about the juddering. Between Bristol Parkway and Wootton Bassett it get quite violent sometimes.

 

[yorksrob]

I guess keeping spare DMUs with all their associated electrical & mechanical equipment to maintain, works out significantly more expensive than the traditional practice of having spare loco hauled stock available in various sidings.

I'm not sure to what extent that would be the case. The loco would need maintenance as well, but presumably that would have been used on other duties the rest of the time.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Of course there is much variety based on geographic location, but it would appear commuting is bouncing back quite well in the North. Evening peaks often resemble, well, evening peaks - with trains regularly full and standing.

I don't think there will be too much damage to revenue, up here, either. Indeed, I remember well how much we had it drilled into us that [a North of England serving TOCs] revenue is 70% leisure, around 20% commuter and 10% business - so in theory, that shortfall shouldn't be too dramatic, especially if leisure can be grown.

I think, at present, the real barrier to growth is the DfT/Treasury tightening the purse strings, right at the time the TOCs need the discretion to spend money where its needed (ie: to reinstate culled services). Indeed, I'm well aware just how much the lack of a will to invest frustrates friends in the strategic planning side of the industry, as they simply can't make decisions to react to demand as they used to.

DfT are forecasting that ML operator support will be c£5.5B for 2021/22 FY which is £1.8B above revised plan as budget forecast was only £2.1B. On top of this DfT have also had to support TfL by an additional £1.2B more than plan as well as bus and light rail support. So DfT are several billion above budget, although they probably didn't anticipate a return to WFH that came at back end of last year, but we know the way HMT works and they will be exerting pressure on DfT to cut costs. Currently DfT are trying micro manage every operator but there maybe hope with those that have moved onto a NRC in that they are required to present a business plan to DfT and it gets reviewed every qtr so TOCs should be using that mechanism to promote what is necessary to grow revenue and reduce support costs.

 

[modernrail]

I’m currently on a 80X train, which reminds me that it would help to encourage repeat business from passengers if the seats were far more comfortable…

And also it would help if the design of the train and the maintenance of the track were better. When travelling at 125MPH (or thereabouts), it’s not nice to experience ‘train turbulence’, where the coach judders up and down.

Every little helps as a certain supermarket advert goes…

And yes, I appreciate that the horrible 80X seats (at least the GWR IET / IEP) have almost certainly already been discussed to death somewhere here already.

I don’t want to reopen a discussion on any specific trains. Just make the general point that generally speaking the seats, comfort and ride quality of road cars is continuously getting better, but the opposite appears to be happening on the railways.

That last paragraph is a great way of putting it. The DfT and some TOCs have managed to turn some very expensive tubes of metal into some very uncomfortable tubes of metal by penny pinching for one of the cheapest items in that tube. Meanwhile, sit in a Tesla, be doing your bit for the environment and be extremely comfortable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2022 ==

Business travel had collapsed we hear. There are shedloads of high capacity bimodeds not earning their keep. Perhaps some of those could be repurposed to be used on leisure routes.

At some point the penny is going to drop…business travel has collapsed at the prices charged. The sight of that empty train is infuriating. The market is there. People are travelling, the motorways are full. People and business are just not going to be ransomed any more by insane pretty much worst in the world peak fares for the pleasure of sitting on a DfT commissioned rock with often less than amazing customer service. Price that train more reasonably, it will be full. The railway needs to stop the playing the victim and gets itself together.

 

[43066]

infuriating. The market is there. People are travelling, the motorways are full. People and business are just not going to be ransomed any more by insane pretty much worst in the world peak fares for the pleasure of sitting on a DfT commissioned rock with often less than amazing customer service. Price that train more reasonably, it will be full. The railway needs to stop the playing the victim and gets itself together.

And exactly who is it you think sets those peak time fares?

 

[modernrail]

And exactly who is it you think sets those peak time fares?

Elon Musk?

My understanding is that long distance peak Anytimes are unregulated and therefore set by the TOC. Happy to be told I am wrong.

My understanding is that peak local fares are regulated.

Peak commuter fares in the north would be fine except northern pulled some sneaky moves with raising fares by stealth by altering ticket validity. In the SE they are too high and I think will have to come down if they don’t want to be carting fresh air. So that one is a DfT decision.

However in terms of multiples of off peak fares, it is the long distance ones that are the clear winners for stupidity and my understanding is that TOCs in franchise days could have reduce those had they wished. They didn’t, now hardly anybody is willing to be ransomed anymore and so the DfT will need to decide whether to be stupid or sensible in its new found role micromanaging the railway, an operational entity its civil servants have absolutely no clue or experience of how to run as their inability to even choose a seat and a bit if fabric testifies. As I have said before, there is great danger in this period before botched GBR arrives. The RMT is going to put lots of discretionary passengers off using the service having failed to wake up to the fact they can’t ransom on the basis of shutting down commuter flows any more. We are already seeing that all over the place. Meanwhile the Tories will continue their usual arrogant we know best micromanaging and cause great damage. Why anybody voted for this shambles and expected anything else as a result is beyond me.

 

[Edsmith]

This photo shows coach B of 1A07 on route to London Paddington (a peak time train) with most seats empty.
View attachment 112823

That's been my experience too on many peak hour trains which would have been packed pre covid. Weekends are much busier though especially if the weather is nice.

 

[andystock22]

I went to the office 3 days last week. Passenger numbers on Great Northern Inners are no where near pre covid in the morning peak. 2 seats to my myself and there was even plenty of spare seats between Finsbury Park and Moorgate. Pre covid this train would have been rammed full. In addition Great Northern are still operating a reduced timetable. (4 TPH v 6 TPH.

London Overground was significantly less busy than pre covid in the morning peak. More leisure travellers in the evening peak.

I don't know a single person who has returned to the office 5 days per week.

 

[modernrail]

I suspect commuter flows are being very seriously hit by covid and other bugs still, and now obviously holidays for 2 weeks. I also suspect commuter flows during holidays will always now be a lot lower as parents will use that time more than any other to work from home and grab those extra holiday hours with the kids.

I know so many people with COVID, and many seem to be getting a good 2 week blast. I also know lots of people working from home with various bugs that seem to be enjoying us moving about a bit more.

Personally I think commuter flows will end up about 75% of what they were in the north and 50-60% in the south unless they play with the ticket pricing. If they do, no reason why the peak trains can’t be full again.

 

[ainsworth74]

Personally I think commuter flows will end up about 75% of what they were in the north and 50-60% in the south unless they play with the ticket pricing. If they do, no reason why the peak trains can’t be full again.

I wish anyone trying to argue to reduce ticket prices good luck in their endeavours in getting that past the Treasury and the DfT. There is little to no evidence that they'll countenance any such things and a fair old bit that they won't (recall that the much vaunted flexi-seasons that have in some cases increased fares were going to be even less generous until the industry managed to get the Treasury to cave in slightly).

 

[andystock22]

Also depends how employers structure hybrid working. Some employers are just saying you need to be in the office 20 to 40% of the time in a month. A parent could spend a whole week in the office and come the school holidays spend a whole week working from home.

Many employers are now telling their office based staff to work from home if they have any of the covid symptoms.

There dose seem to be a now diffrence between London and the rest of the UK. Last Monday London Underground only had 59% of pre covid demand. Greater Anglia announced commuting to London is at around 55% of pre covid demand.

I think this us due to the nature of the London employment market, a much higher percentage of high skilled office based roles which can be undertaken remotely.

 

[Mag_seven]

I think that we are all still adjusting to the post covid travel situation - I don't think anyone can really predict how the passenger numbers will pan out for a while yet.

 

[baz962]

Well I saw that picture of the presumably GWR train and I guess some tocs are still well down. I see a post above mentioned a London Overground train. I was an Overground driver until August and most of the trains I drove were pretty busy back then. Now a long distance inter city driver and while I wasn't at my current toc pre covid and while the odd train I drive is quiet , most are getting very busy . That's both peak and off peak.

 

[bramling]

Also depends how employers structure hybrid working. Some employers are just saying you need to be in the office 20 to 40% of the time in a month. A parent could spend a whole week in the office and come the school holidays spend a whole week working from home.

Many employers are now telling their office based staff to work from home if they have any of the covid symptoms.

There dose seem to be a now diffrence between London and the rest of the UK. Last Monday London Underground only had 59% of pre covid demand. Greater Anglia announced commuting to London is at around 55% of pre covid demand.

I think this us due to the nature of the London employment market, a much higher percentage of high skilled office based roles which can be undertaken remotely.

I’m not sure having two weeks “working from home” during the school holidays is a particularly responsible attitude for people to be taking. Either they’re not working, which employers are soon going to wise up to, or they are likely to be prone to distraction, which is hardly ideal either.

No wonder inflation is sky-high given the work culture seems to be so poor.

 

[Ken H]

I’m not sure having two weeks “working from home” during the school holidays is a particularly responsible attitude for people to be taking. Either they’re not working, which employers are soon going to wise up to, or they are likely to be prone to distraction, which is hardly ideal either.

No wonder inflation is sky-high given the work culture seems to be so poor.

Well you have to look at the cost of childcare. That can be a huge chunk of income for many. Is it any surprise people WFH and save cash.

 

[WelshBluebird]

This photo shows coach B of 1A07 on route to London Paddington (a peak time train) with most seats empty.

I suspect the skywateringly high GWR peak fares into Paddington at peak times don't help either. Even before COVID it wasn't that unusual for the off peak trains either side of the peak times to be busier than some of the peak services.

I wish anyone trying to argue to reduce ticket prices good luck in their endeavours in getting that past the Treasury and the DfT. There is little to no evidence that they'll countenance any such things and a fair old bit that they won't (recall that the much vaunted flexi-seasons that have in some cases increased fares were going to be even less generous until the industry managed to get the Treasury to cave in slightly).

Whilst I agree I don't think it will happen, I do think a conversation around cost per ticket vs overall revenue needs to be had. E.g. based on the picture above of a nearly empty GWR IET into Paddington, I do wonder if it would be busier if peak tickets were cheaper and if so could GWR make more money overall by selling more tickets at a cheaper price? Especially now when everyone seems to be more flexible, I'm really not so sure ToC's can bank on the "but I have to be at my destination for X time so I'll have to pay for a peak ticket that costs four times as much as the cheapest off peak ticket does" like they used to be able to.

I’m not sure having two weeks “working from home” during the school holidays is a particularly responsible attitude for people to be taking. Either they’re not working, which employers are soon going to wise up to, or they are likely to be prone to distraction, which is hardly ideal either.

Or maybe, just maybe, because by allowing that an employer would be fostering a hell of lot of good will with their staff, they may actually find productivity increases as people are much more likely to care about their employer and go the extra mile if it feels like their employer cares about them?

No wonder inflation is sky-high given the work culture seems to be so poor.

Not sure I see the link there!

 

[modernrail]

I’m not sure having two weeks “working from home” during the school holidays is a particularly responsible attitude for people to be taking. Either they’re not working, which employers are soon going to wise up to, or they are likely to be prone to distraction, which is hardly ideal either.

No wonder inflation is sky-high given the work culture seems to be so poor.

Gibberish. Those parents you are critiquing so badly managed to juggle work and home schooling and kept that part of the economy going extremely well, better than anybody would have predicted. It was an unbelievable effort by many.

I am not a parent but what a parent might very sensibly decide to do in a 2 week holiday is for one to take a week off, the other wfh and then they get 2 hours extra a day saved commuting time to spend together as a family. That means evening walks to the park, having a nice family dinner together etc.

High inflation is being caused by a number of things, none of which are related to WFH patterns.

As for that work culture, the majority of people I work with are extremely hard working whether at home or in the office. I have personally worked quite a bit with Covid, various bugs and even pneumonia at one stage and frankly been happy to do so to ensure plates keep spinning and colleagues are supported as we have all had to work around our various bugs, covid, recovery and general crazy world. Lots of people I know did the same whereas for instance a railway worker had to become completely unproductive due to the nature of the work.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2022 ==

I suspect the skywateringly high GWR peak fares into Paddington at peak times don't help either. Even before COVID it wasn't that unusual for the off peak trains either side of the peak times to be busier than some of the peak services.


Whilst I agree I don't think it will happen, I do think a conversation around cost per ticket vs overall revenue needs to be had. E.g. based on the picture above of a nearly empty GWR IET into Paddington, I do wonder if it would be busier if peak tickets were cheaper and if so could GWR make more money overall by selling more tickets at a cheaper price? Especially now when everyone seems to be more flexible, I really aren't so sure ToC's can bank on the "but I have to be at my destination for X time so I'll have to pay for a peak ticket that costs four times as much as the cheapest off peak ticket does" like they used to be able to.


Not sure I see the link there!

Exactly, if the DfT wants to cut our noses of to spite our face the industry should argue against it. One real danger with the new model is that TOCs don’t care about revenue as risk sits with the DfT and the DfT will sit there getting the equations wrong, not understanding the business and being generally misguided rather than pragmatic etc.

 

[ainsworth74]

Whilst I agree I don't think it will happen, I do think a conversation around cost per ticket vs overall revenue needs to be had. E.g. based on the picture above of a nearly empty GWR IET into Paddington, I do wonder if it would be busier if peak tickets were cheaper and if so could GWR make more money overall by selling more tickets at a cheaper price? Especially now when everyone seems to be more flexible, I really aren't so sure ToC's can bank on the "but I have to be at my destination for X time so I'll have to pay for a peak ticket that costs four times as much as the cheapest off peak ticket does" like they used to be able to.

Absolutely. I've thought for ages that we're getting our sums wrong in many places and that reducing fares would actually lead to revenue growth overall. Of course some operators don't have that luxury (CrossCountry for instance) but on others it strikes me that there is plenty of scope for it. See also arguments around railcards and expanding provision to them. But post Covid I think that issue needs addressing even more urgently. Unfortunately the dead hand of the Treasury I suspect will kill such a discussion before it even gets off the ground.

 

[modernrail]

Absolutely. I've thought for ages that we're getting our sums wrong in many places and that reducing fares would actually lead to revenue growth overall. Of course some operators don't have that luxury (CrossCountry for instance) but on others it strikes me that there is plenty of scope for it. See also arguments around railcards and expanding provision to them. But post Covid I think that issue needs addressing even more urgently. Unfortunately the dead hand of the Treasury I suspect will kill such a discussion before it even gets off the ground.

It would be lovely to think somebody from the Treasury might be a forum user and take note of these points.

 

[ar10642]

I’m not sure having two weeks “working from home” during the school holidays is a particularly responsible attitude for people to be taking. Either they’re not working, which employers are soon going to wise up to, or they are likely to be prone to distraction, which is hardly ideal either.

No wonder inflation is sky-high given the work culture seems to be so poor.

Working from home is still working. It just means you can help out at lunch breaks, do something after work with the kids, help out a little bit here and there during the day. Anyone who thinks an office is a hotbed of pure productivity where you get 7.5 hours of solid work done with zero distractions has clearly never worked in one either.

There is still a place for in office work and meeting face to face, and I do enjoy my visits to the office when I go, but it really doesn't have to be something you do all day every day, every day anymore. Not sure why this fact is so triggering for some people, it all balances out.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2022 ==

Absolutely. I've thought for ages that we're getting our sums wrong in many places and that reducing fares would actually lead to revenue growth overall. Of course some operators don't have that luxury (CrossCountry for instance) but on others it strikes me that there is plenty of scope for it. See also arguments around railcards and expanding provision to them. But post Covid I think that issue needs addressing even more urgently. Unfortunately the dead hand of the Treasury I suspect will kill such a discussion before it even gets off the ground.

This is what I think as well. The railway isn't immune to supply and demand and there is an assumption on this forum that any reduction in fares will lead to a directly proportional loss in revenue, as if the number of people travelling is fixed and possibly cannot be affected by price.

In reality I have looked up train fares many a time, seen the price and thought "nope", so the railway gets £0.

 

[Ken H]

Working from home is still working. It just means you can help out at lunch breaks, do something after work with the kids, help out a little bit here and there during the day. Anyone who thinks an office is a hotbed of pure productivity where you get 7.5 hours of solid work done with zero distractions has clearly never worked in one either.

There is still a place for in office work and meeting face to face, and I do enjoy my visits to the office when I go, but it really doesn't have to be something you do all day every day, every day anymore. Not sure why this fact is so triggering for some people, it all balances out.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2022 ==


This is what I think as well. The railway isn't immune to supply and demand and there is an assumption on this forum that any reduction in fares will lead to a directly proportional loss in revenue, as if the number of people travelling is fixed and possibly cannot be affected by price.

In reality I have looked up train fares many a time, seen the price and thought "nope", so the railway gets £0.

BR knew all about elasticity. both time and cost vs demand. It seems this knowledge has been lost.

 

[Bald Rick]

BR knew all about elasticity. both time and cost vs demand. It seems this knowledge has been lost.

it hasn’t, far from it. Indeed much, much more is known now than was 28 years ago.

What has changed is the market itself (and therefore how elasticities have changed), and also the TOCs ability to react to it.

LNER could easily increase their revenue substantially at weekends, if only they were allowed to charge the market rate (as determined by elasticities) rather than the regulated fare. Not a popular policy, granted.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Apr 2022 ==

 

[Mag_seven]

LNER could easily increase their revenue substantially at weekends, if only they were allowed to charge the market rate (as determined by elasticities) rather than the regulated fare. Not a popular policy, granted.

I've created a new thread in the Speculative Section to discuss the idea of increasing fares at the weekend to reflect the increased demand at that time:

Should fares at the weekend be raised to take account of increased weekend demand?

Moderator note - split from: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/post-covid-passenger-rebound.229889/ it hasn’t, far from it. Indeed much, much more is known now than was 28 years ago. What has changed is the market itself (and therefore how elasticities have changed), and also the TOCs...

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