Post Covid Passenger Rebound

[alastair]

Weirdly it's almost impossible to get an advance fare on the GEML now, whereas before covid they were quite easy to obtain even just a few days before travel.havr the quotas been cut?

Really? The GA website is currently offering advances from Farnham (my local station) to Norwich via London for tomorrow, with a choice of times, for £18.85 standard or £28.80 first (with railcard). Extraordinarily, it's almost the same as the fare just from Farnham to Waterloo! Seems like a reasonable deal to me.

Out Monday 04 Apr 2022 Farnham FNH to Norwich NRW​

Earlier
Later
Outward times

Depart	FNH09:58	FNH10:28	FNH10:58	FNH11:28
Arrive	NRW13:46	NRW14:20	NRW14:45	NRW15:19
Duration	3h 48m	3h 52m	3h 47m	3h 51m
Changes	2	2	2	2

Single tickets - SingleTickets leg

Cheapest Standard Single	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability
Cheapest 1st Class Single	£28.80 ADVANCE SINGLE (1ST CLASS)​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £28.80£28.80 Total: £28.80​ Limited availability	£28.80 ADVANCE SINGLE (1ST CLASS)​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £28.80£28.80 Total: £28.80​ Limited availability	£28.80 ADVANCE SINGLE (1ST CLASS)​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £28.80£28.80 Total: £28.80​ Limited availability	£28.80

​

 

[robert thomas]

Abanti West Coast are doing just that with standard premium.

Not all first class is expensive. Here in South Wales it is well used between Swansea & Cardiff particularly by ladies shopping. With my railcard it is only £2-3 more expensive each way on a return fare with much greater room and free refreshments. Similarly I can do a trip to the Midlands for about £10-15 extra each way on an an anytime return valid 1 month provide I do not book to Birmingham but to somewhere like Telford or Kidderminster which is valid via Birmingham but with no restrictions.

 

[northwichcat]

Abanti West Coast are doing just that with standard premium.

I feel VIA Rail in Canada have got the balance right. Business class obviously costs more than Economy but it's not an excessive amount more when you consider meals, refreshments, extra space and more flexible luggage are all included in the upgrade.

In recent years the majority of people using first class have been paying for their own tickets, and there is very significant leisure use of first on long distance services (much more than business).

I know my business' policy doesn't allow first class travel unless it's cheaper than standard class. Not sure I'd get extra leg room approved as the department head is 6ft 4 so if he thinks standard is OK for him, why would he approve extra leg room for shorter people? However, breakfast or lunch could count an expense so maybe standard+included meal could work?

 

[cambsy]

I think, the railways are a vital service, which without, the country and its economy , would come to standstill, this is why the government’s, have continued to subsidise the railways, and why during during they Covid, they propped up the railways, and not just leave to go under, and fail. The railways over time, will have to get used to the new travelling trends of the public, that leisure travel at the moment, will be predominant. And is the main growth market, and peak travel will return, but probably quite slowly. Im travelling on Thursday from London-Penzance, for day out, so be interested to see how busy trains are during Easter.

 

[Robertj21a]

I think, the railways are a vital service, which without, the country and its economy , would come to standstill, this is why the government’s, have continued to subsidise the railways, and why during during they Covid, they propped up the railways, and not just leave to go under, and fail. The railways over time, will have to get used to the new travelling trends of the public, that leisure travel at the moment, will be predominant. And is the main growth market, and peak travel will return, but probably quite slowly. Im travelling on Thursday from London-Penzance, for day out, so be interested to see how busy trains are during Easter.

Passenger railway services are surely not essential for the country and its economy?. Freight is important in parts of the UK but only a small % of passengers would view trains as essential. Only a proportion of the population use trains now and many can use cars, buses, coaches etc.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Indeed.

I recall a study done by the railway years ago when they asked non-users how much they thought the fare was (it was a regional service somewhere in Yorkshire/ E Mids as I recall).

The perception was that the fare was much higher than it actually was.

Aha! We did some broadly similar research in Scotland in BR's day. Users and non-users. People were quite happy to answer initial questions that fares were "too high" and "always going up" but as the survey progressed most had to admit that they didn't actually know what the fare was for a typical journey, say from their nearest station to Edinburgh or Glasgow, nor what the bus/coach fare was either. They couldn't say when 'their' fare had last increased or by how much.

Basically people just bought into the narrative that "rail was a rip-off", fares were "eye watering" and still "soaring". This was in the days before social media and the internet but still a regular topic for local press articles and speeches by politicians.

They were frequently amazed to be told how cheap (or affordable) many fares actually were.

I know that advertisements on posters are largely a thing of the past but have always been a believer that basic messages like "a day trip to Edinburgh for £9.90" or "two of you can enjoy a visit to North Berwick for 14.80", etc. are a key building block in driving patronage.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As long as you can reliably get that fare. People have wised up to the likes of Megabus's headline £1 fares, to the point they got in trouble for it and had to stop promoting like that.

Headline fares with one sold per train, or excessively restricted super off peaks, actually act as negative publicity.

 

[Purple Orange]

The headline fares for say London to wherever are fine and all that, but targeting one-off travel is not what the industry should be doing. It needs to be competing with the car to get you in to your nearby city centre on a regular basis. It averages at roughly £8.80 return for me to get in to the centre of Manchester on a flexible season ticket for a train journey that takes roughly 25 minutes. That price needs to be better than the cost of petrol and parking plus journey times need to be competitive too. Metro networks tend to be better at doing this.

 

[david1212]

Is part of the current problem the peak hour tickets no longer synchronise with busy times.

Effectively get less busy trains running in traditional commuting time, with a ticketing system that encourages peak to travel later on busy local trains.

Long distance is different, we no longer have a cross country network where one or two trains per day served all sort of leisure visiting routes. So not a lot of incentive to book advances, instead people use ticket split sites and find cheap tickets which often route them on local trains for part of the journey leaving many long distance services (which often serve business destinations like London) virtually empty.

We need to move the trains around to where demand isn’t (from serving business routes with little demand) to serving leisure and seaside routes to get people back on the trains. It is no use running 10 car trains empty, but people can’t get to places like Scarborough and Weymouth from 30-50 miles inland except on an overcrowded short train.

If it too hard to move the trains, then need to reprice all the tickets to fill the empty trains. Ideally responsively every few weeks, certainly not waiting for months or years to do it.

Back years ago MK1 stock was within the loading gauge and platform clearances of most lines with passenger services. The same applied to 1st generation DMU's. All stock was common owner, even after sectors introduced. Hence far easier to reallocate a rake of stock and/or make up a rake by shortening running trains for a different route powered by a loco or two that otherwise would be parked up. Similarly suburban DMU's even if not really suitable for longer journeys e.g. West Midlands <> Blackpool.

Now numerous reasons why impossible to take a parked up EMU set and a class 66 or 67 to run to a destination where demand outstrips capacity.

 

[trebor79]

Really? The GA website is currently offering advances from Farnham (my local station) to Norwich via London for tomorrow, with a choice of times, for £18.85 standard or £28.80 first (with railcard). Extraordinarily, it's almost the same as the fare just from Farnham to Waterloo! Seems like a reasonable deal to me.

Out Monday 04 Apr 2022 Farnham FNH to Norwich NRW​

Earlier
Later
Outward times

Depart	FNH09:58	FNH10:28	FNH10:58	FNH11:28
Arrive	NRW13:46	NRW14:20	NRW14:45	NRW15:19
Duration	3h 48m	3h 52m	3h 47m	3h 51m
Changes	2	2	2	2

Single tickets - SingleTickets leg

Cheapest Standard Single	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability	£18.85 ADVANCE SINGLE​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £18.85£18.85 Total: £18.85​ Limited availability
Cheapest 1st Class Single	£28.80 ADVANCE SINGLE (1ST CLASS)​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £28.80£28.80 Total: £28.80​ Limited availability	£28.80 ADVANCE SINGLE (1ST CLASS)​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £28.80£28.80 Total: £28.80​ Limited availability	£28.80 ADVANCE SINGLE (1ST CLASS)​ Specified train only. No refunds. Only valid on booked Greater Anglia services and required connecting services. This ticket has limited availability. Price breakdown summary​ 1 Senior Railcard Adult @ £28.80£28.80 Total: £28.80​ Limited availability	£28.80

​

Sorry should have clarified I'm travelling in the peak into London. Usually I'd get a "GA Business Return" which has now been renamed to something similar, but there appear to be none available in the peaks now.
All your examples are not in the peak for the London to Norwich leg.

 

[permarquis]

Passenger railway services are surely not essential for the country and its economy?. Freight is important in parts of the UK but only a small % of passengers would view trains as essential. Only a proportion of the population use trains now and many can use cars, buses, coaches etc.

Well, it depends what you mean by essential. If you want a modern, dynamic, accessible society and economy that serves its citizens then yes, it is absolutely essential. As myself and many others keep saying, the presence of a good railway service benefits everyone in an area, including those who don't use it. Of course, those who do use it benefit more directly, which is why it's fair that they pay a contribution to supplement the subsidy.

 

[Starmill]

albeit there are trains running York to Scarborough, and they have excellent connections with London at York.

Yes there are, but your standard is "a relaxing day out". I have to say that this cannot reasonably be expected when travel is affected by the current industrial action.

 

[Llandudno]

As long as you can reliably get that fare. People have wised up to the likes of Megabus's headline £1 fares, to the point they got in trouble for it and had to stop promoting like that.

Headline fares with one sold per train, or excessively restricted super off peaks, actually act as negative publicity.

Maybe, but Ryanair seemed to have earnt a crust perusing this pricing and marketing strategy!

 

[Purple Orange]

Well, it depends what you mean by essential. If you want a modern, dynamic, accessible society and economy that serves its citizens then yes, it is absolutely essential. As myself and many others keep saying, the presence of a good railway service benefits everyone in an area, including those who don't use it. Of course, those who do use it benefit more directly, which is why it's fair that they pay a contribution to supplement the subsidy.

Plus our largest cities heavily rely upon the rail network, with the majority of peak journeys being on public transport. The proportion of car journeys has been decreasing over the long term, with train increasing. Pre-covid, more people went in to central Manchester on the train than by car in the morning peak and it was a trend that was only increasing.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Northern has been massively boosted by leisure travel, revenue over the past few weeks has been at or above pre-pandemic levels. This is despite passenger numbers being at 85% of pre-covid. Leisure revenues are proving far more lucrative than commuter ones. Focus and resources are going to be firmly on the leisure market this coming spring and summer.

Umm but NR will still be closing the railway and telling us in the press release we are doing it when demand is lower...........

 

[Peterthegreat]

Umm but NR will still closing the railway and telling us in the press release we are doing it when demand is lower...........

To be precise they are telling us commuter numbers are lower. That's why they are withdrawing off peak services - including Saturdays....

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

To be precise they are telling us commuter numbers are lower. That's why they are withdrawing off peak services - including Saturdays....

To be clear Network rail will still be closing the railway at weekends when passenger demand is higher was my point. ie the railway now needs to rethink how it does heavy mtce and renewals to ensure revenue is maximised.

 

[Peterthegreat]

To be clear Network rail will still be closing the railway at weekends when passenger demand is higher was my point. ie the railway now needs to rethink how it does heavy mtce and renewals to ensure revenue is maximised.

Sorry I thought NR was referring to Northern.

 

[43066]

To be clear Network rail will still be closing the railway at weekends when passenger demand is higher was my point. ie the railway now needs to rethink how it does heavy mtce and renewals to ensure revenue is maximised.

But as per @Bald Rick ’s post up thread:

on the point of peak time - by far and away the busiest time on the railway (on most of not all routes) is Monday to Thursday mornings 0600-0930, and Monday to Friday evenings 1600-1900.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Sorry I thought NR was referring to Northern.

No worries I shouldn't go for acronyms

 

[matacaster]

And a public service can only offer a "one size fits all" rather than a tailored, bespoke service. True of health, education, social and council services up and down the land as well as in many other countries.

So your basic premise that the service should flex to the users simply isn't viable with a large scale public service.

The reality is regular commuters and business travellers have for donkeys years provided the bedrock of income for the railways and leisure passengers have enjoyed a subsidised service as a result. Well Covid has dealt a blow to that model and the money to cover that needs to come from somewhere and the leisure traveller as a result isn't going to continue to enjoy such a subsidised existence.

Commuters have indeed paid more, but their sheer volume into and out of London has caused vast sums to be spent on rail lines and stock in that area. For example, the question might be asked 'would we build crossrail and even contemplate crossrail2' given the current situation?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Apr 2022 ==

Salaries in say West Yorkshire generally are significantly lower than in London, but the return train fare each way is pretty similar, discuss.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Commuters have indeed paid more, but their sheer volume into and out of London has caused vast sums to be spent on rail lines and stock in that area. For example, the question might be asked 'would we build crossrail and even contemplate crossrail2' given the current situation?

I don't know about Crossrail 2, but the original may have been different, perhaps more Thameslink like than a short distance capacity driven super-Tube as it became.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yes there are, but your standard is "a relaxing day out". I have to say that this cannot reasonably be expected when travel is affected by the current industrial action.

Well, as it happens anyone booking last night for a day trip from London to Scarborough today would probably not have known there was industrial action. And that’s my point - if you are booking a trip out then it is reasonable to expect that the trains you book will run, particularly with one day’s notice.

The trains I chose were all on time, 0848 Kings Cross - York, 1047 York - Scarborough; 1732 Scarborough to York, 1832 York - Kings Cross. Lovely stuff.

 

[modernrail]

But as per @Bald Rick ’s post up thread:

Are they at the moment? That is the bit I am interested to know, and how that breaks down between metro and non metro and importantly, how that compares with before as before is how capacity was set.

Personally I think the railway should be aiming to grab market share whilst fuel prices are high but let’s see if it has it in it. There is plenty of traffic out there so there is a potential passenger for every single seat on the railways.

 

[A0]

Salaries in say West Yorkshire generally are significantly lower than in London, but the return train fare each way is pretty similar, discuss.

Bit in bold - simply not true.

Harrogate to Leeds (~18 miles) anytime return £ 11.

Hatfield - Kings Cross (~17 miles) anytime return £19.20

Gerrards Cross - Marylebone (~19 miles) anytime return £ 20.90

Broxbourne - Liverpool Street (~ 17 miles) anytime return £ 18.80

Slough - Paddington (~18 miles) anytime return £18.60

The fares into London are virtually double those of the north.

Go outside Yorkshire and it's still the case

Macclesfield to Manchester Piccadilly (~17 miles) anytime return £11.20.

 

[Starmill]

And that’s my point - if you are booking a trip out then it is reasonable to expect that the trains you book will run, particularly with one day’s notice.

It's a reasonable expectation which reality generally doesn't support. It only takes one missed connection to put someone off for years and years, because the customer service response is woeful. In the case of this journey you'd have to just wait for the next train, even if it were hours away. Oh, and of course the industry now claims it can change the times even if you booked the day before, and they won't pay you compensation if that results in a delay. It's in fact pretty common for the timetable to be wrong the day before a strike day. If the aim were to give people a relaxing day out, this recent change to conditions wouldn't have been made. Rail customers should in general not expect to be able to travel at the time they've pre-booked because if they do they will likely run into avoidable delays. They need to check carefully and consider setting off early in case of problems if they want to have confidence, and they need to accept that if they're late they may not have ready access to compensation. I'm sorry but your example is simply not representative.

 

[Bald Rick]

It's a reasonable expectation which reality generally doesn't support. It only takes one missed connection to put someone off for years and years.

Ah - that’s different, I agree that missed connections are a pain (I’ve missed more than a few in my time, many very frustratingly!)

My point is that the trains I looked at booking last night ran as advertised today, and all were on time (or very nearly so). And it was cheaper for two people to travel from London - Scarborough for the day today by train than to drive. And much more relaxing.

 

[Starmill]

Ah - that’s different, I agree that missed connections are a pain (I’ve missed more than a few in my time, many very frustratingly!)

My point is that the trains I looked at booking last night ran as advertised today, and all were on time (or very nearly so). And it was cheaper for two people to travel from London - Scarborough for the day today by train than to drive. And much more relaxing.

I don't think that anyone disagrees with the point that rail travel can sometimes deliver quick journeys at middling prices at late notice though do they? The trouble is that people do not trust that to be the case the majority of the time.

What people want is either a quality product that's highly reliable, dependable, and which you can actually relax and enjoy using, or alternatively, a bargain. Both camps are obviously not pleased by the current offer.

 

[43066]

Passenger railway services are surely not essential for the country and its economy?. Freight is important in parts of the UK but only a small % of passengers would view trains as essential. Only a proportion of the population use trains now and many can use cars, buses, coaches etc.

Very much essential in the bit of the country that really counts economy wise - ie London and the Home Counties. Very few people can drive into central London. I say that as one of very few people who has access to free parking in central London, but I still don’t drive in; in fact I’ve foregone car ownership altogether for a couple of years now.

Buses and coaches are an incredibly poor substitute for rail and using them is invariably a dreadful experience. People generally only travel by these modes because they can’t afford any other option.

 

[matacaster]

Bit in bold - simply not true.

Harrogate to Leeds (~18 miles) anytime return £ 11.

Hatfield - Kings Cross (~17 miles) anytime return £19.20

Gerrards Cross - Marylebone (~19 miles) anytime return £ 20.90

Broxbourne - Liverpool Street (~ 17 miles) anytime return £ 18.80

Slough - Paddington (~18 miles) anytime return £18.60

The fares into London are virtually double those of the north.

Go outside Yorkshire and it's still the case

Macclesfield to Manchester Piccadilly (~17 miles) anytime return £11.20.

I was actually referring to leeds to lkx. Not commuting trains. I accept that commuting journeys into London are more expensive, but up north NR don't have to pat for 12 coach trains and platforms and the rest of the complex infrastructure. Similarly, the service frequency is often dire with short stick up north. Londoners don't generally have to wait long periods between trains.