I'd be very surprised if any future Merseyrail Hunts Cross services run beyond Liverpool South Parkway,let alone any extensions towards Warrington.
The future of the CLC line is with Lime St originating services.
I don't see why necessarily. There is a logic for Merseyrail to take over the stoppers up to around Warrington in that it allows the trains to go straight into the low level platforms of Liverpool South Parkway, avoiding the flat junction at Allerton and reducing conflicts. Also, Hunts Cross was never intended to be a terminus for Merseyrail and the original plans were to run to Gateacre and Warrington Central. Not only is it rather awkward having 4pth turning round at Hunts Cross but the Merseyrail trains terminate in the northern half of the station, maximising conflict with the mainline services. This was because they needed to be on the north side in order to get to Gateacre but this never materialised. A 'do minimum' option of extending 2tph from Hunts Cross to Warrington Central would mean only 2tph turning round at Hunts Cross (although now 2tph turning round at Warrington Central as well). I think there's scope to improve the layout at Hunts Cross so that Merseyrail trains terminate at the south side of the station (Platform 1 rather than 3) and as the line between Hunts Cross and Allerton depot could be made four tracks (as it once was), it would allow a good passing loop for the semifasts & EMT.
The issue is what you do with the West Allerton/Mossley Hill stoppers. The former can go towards Runcorn and the Halton Curve, or even Crewe. I also hope the airport gets a link someday.
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If Wigan - Southport does ever see wires, why would you do a 3rd rail - OHLE changeover in Burscough Bridge where any issue with it would impact all services, rather than at Ormskirk where it could be done without impacting anything else. If they are going to Electrify this area, I could see them doing it all. and running 2 of the 4tph at Ormskirk to Southport and 2 to Preston. Southport - Wigan and Southport - Preston trains wouldn't stop between Southport and Burscough. However this is all a bit irrelevent to 3rd rail
I don't envision Merseyrail services going beyond Burscough Bridge. That station would serve as an interchange staton with the Southport-Wigan line and the Preston line. It also can't be assumed the Southport-Wigan line still be electrified anyway at that point. What tentative plans I've seen suggest Burscough being the most northly extent of Merseyrail on that branch and it's far from certain even that will ever happen.
Whatever does happen if at some point someone decides it is worthwhile spending the money to finish Liverpool's railway system, you are right, the tunnels will be 3rd rail. as well as the clearance issues, you wouldn't want to do your changeover at the busiest station on the network in case you had a problem. This is the only place I could see a sensible 3rd Rail extension as it is the only place I think you could truly argue Gralistair's Point above.
And if you read that quote to the letter of what it says, I could even see some of the none core electrification being turned to OHLE when it comes to renewing life expired equipment. Country side of Green Lane, Birkenhead Park, Brunswick, Walton and Bank Hall.
Boring new tunnels for clearance would class as Grossly Disproportionate, but I'm not sure replacing 3rd rail for OHLE on the rest of the network could be. Not only are the Safety Implications for everyone line-side workers and passengers emergency services / third parties who for whatever reason find themselves track side paramount, the efficiency and maintenance costs of 3rd rail are very poor when compared to the alternative.
I'm pretty sure renewal of life-expired third rail with new third rail doesn't count as an extension and I'm fairly certain this has happened on Merseyrail over the years. If you accept that the tunnels will always be 3rd rail then I don't see why you'd still want to do piecemeal replacements of portions of the surface sections with OHLE. What benefits are there forcing trains to change over at Birkenhead Park or Bank Hall? It's needless faff that I don't believe is outweighted by any significant benefits. I'm not even certain what the benefits are. Electocution just doesn't happen that often (virtually zero X 16), and the benefits of 25kv AC in terms of less loss, less substations etc are far more marginal in metropolitan systems, which is why 3rd rail is still chosen for some new systems around the world (albeit, usually with side or bottom contact shoes).
And it
is a faff changing power. It's just yet another thing that can go wrong. The train has to wait longer at the station than it would otherwise. The driver has to remember to lower the pantograph when leaving the OHLE area. The mechanism which raises and lowers the pantograph can fail. These are things the likes of Thameslink have to contend with. The big difference is that Thameslink was essentially a joining together of two different networks which developed separately and so had different power to begin with. The faff of changing power is far outweighed by the benefits of through running through Central London brings and how it makes direct journeys like Bedford to Brighton possible. Now, what benefit is there in making a Merseyrail train change power at Birkenhead Park on its way to New Brighton?
Really, flexibility and common sense are needed when it comes to this sort of thing. An uncompromising view that all the National Rail network should be on one type of power and any areas non-complying must be converted regardless of any particular local situation seems to be an OCD crave for uniformity. If Merseyrail was hived off from the National Rail network, would we be still having this discussion? The East London Line is another interesting one: presumably as part of the National Rail network it must also be converted what come may; however, if it was still part of the London Underground, still powered with the very similar 4th rail system, I presume that it wouldn't be seen as an issue (as it isn't in the extant Underground network), despite being pretty much the exact same metro line not withstanding the extra rail. Also, it's interesting that they didn't convert the ELL to OHLE during the Underground-to-Overground changeover works, choosing 3rd rail instead. Clearly, any crave for uniformity with lines as diverse as the East Coast Mainline just because they're all part of the National Rail lost out to more pragmatic decisions in terms of cost and the local nature & practicalities of the line prevailed.