Possible hurricane next week

[nw1]

It's actually the remnant of Hurricane Kirk (expected to be Cat 4 in mid Atlantic) that is currently predicted to pass close to southern England as a very deep depression towards the end of next week. Most models currently have it tracking over northern France, but it could track further north. Heavy rain may be a bigger issue than winds. Certainly one to watch, especially if you live near the south coast.

Edit: although it appears that Leslie could then follow a similar path!

Apologies, Kirk not Kurt! Not sure why I thought it was the latter.

Maybe there was a Hurricane Kurt some other year.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Apologies, Kirk not Kurt! Not sure why I thought it was the latter.

Maybe there was a Hurricane Kurt some other year.

If you're watching the BBC News with the subtitles on, the subtitles in the weather forecast afterwards keep saying "Kurt" not "Kirk" so you might have picked it up that way?

 

[Shrop]

Diary of possible Trump quotes if he was speaking about Florida this week ...

There is no hurricane

The hurricane is only a small one

I knew it was a hurricane before anyone else knew

No-one knows hurricanes better than I do

The hurricane was started by environmentalists

We cannot allow the hurricane to stop our daily lives

The Democrats are spreading fake news about the hurricane

Some of you will have to die in the hurricane

I could stop the hurricane if I was President

I am the best person for the environment, ask anyone

 

[The exile]

Diary of possible Trump quotes if he was speaking about Florida this week ...

There is no hurricane

The hurricane is only a small one

I knew it was a hurricane before anyone else knew

No-one knows hurricanes better than I do

The hurricane was started by environmentalists

We cannot allow the hurricane to stop our daily lives

The Democrats are spreading fake news about the hurricane

Some of you will have to die in the hurricane

I could stop the hurricane if I was President

I am the best person for the environment, ask anyone

Where’s the “like” button?!

 

[dangie]

Whilst hurricanes are an ‘accepted’ hazard during the six month hurricane season, is the increase in Category 4/5 destructive hurricanes making Florida an unattractive place to live?

 

[Shrop]

Whilst hurricanes are an ‘accepted’ hazard during the six month hurricane season, is the increase in Category 4/5 destructive hurricanes making Florida an unattractive place to live?

Florida will never be an unattractive place to live because it has so much sunshine and glorious seafronts, however the hurricanes may make a minority of people think more about having a permanent home there. You might think this is an odd thing to say, but I think of it like I think of driving cars, ie its one of the most dangerous things we ever do, because (for example) 1650 people will die in on UK roads in the next year and tens of thousands more will be hospitalised with life changing injuries, and none of these know who they are yet. And in the USA the accident statistics are worse per mile of travel. However, it's all a price worth paying because we value the benefits of driving so highly. In a similar way, millions of people will always want to live in Florida despite the weather risks, because of the other benefits of doing so. And of course many of them have the Republican way of thinking which is that Climate Change doesn't really exist, or even if it does then their own lavish and often highly polluting lifestyles aren't anything to do with it, so they'll just carry on

 

[AlterEgo]

This is going to be a tragedy I fear. So many people are still in place. It's rare for me to feel this sick about an approaching event but this one definitely feels very, very bad.

 

[najaB]

This is going to be a tragedy I fear. So many people are still in place. It's rare for me to feel this sick about an approaching event but this one definitely feels very, very bad.

If it gives you any comfort, the projected track seems to be shifting every so slightly south which would take the most destructive winds and storm surge away from the most populated areas. It's still going to be bad though, with rainfall totals well over 30cm in some places.

Both Tampa and Orlando are still within the cone though, so it would just take a jump to the north to be an absolute catastrophe.

 

[Harpo]

Diary of possible Trump quotes if he was speaking about Florida this week ...

There is no hurricane

The hurricane is only a small one

I knew it was a hurricane before anyone else knew

No-one knows hurricanes better than I do

The hurricane was started by environmentalists

We cannot allow the hurricane to stop our daily lives

The Democrats are spreading fake news about the hurricane

Some of you will have to die in the hurricane

I could stop the hurricane if I was President

I am the best person for the environment, ask anyone

Superb! Just add 'I'd build a wall to keep it out'.

 

[Shrop]

Superb! Just add 'I'd build a wall to keep it out'.

Absolutely - you got me laughing with that addition!

I should perhaps add to this, that aside from the dark humour, I'm actually saddened that Trump & millions like him will refuse to acknowledge that this might actually be a wake-up call about climate change. They will keep on with their polluting habits regardless, ie a likely contributor to climate change, and just blame everyone and everything else when Mother Nature comes back to bite them.

 

[Gloster]

Has anyone in the Yucatan been killed or affected? Or don’t we bother with them because they aren’t rich WASPs?

 

[oldman]

Has anyone in the Yucatan been killed or affected? Or don’t we bother with them because they aren’t rich WASPs?

A lot of people in Florida are not WASPs, let alone rich ones. About 50% are classed as W (non-Hispanic), who are not necessarily AS or P. Evidence

The BBC report says about Yucatan:

Video shows coastal flooding and people wading through water on streets and even using boats.

Strong winds have also knocked over trees, causing power outages.

However, most of the damage has been described as minor, and it appears that no larger structures have been destroyed.

 

[najaB]

Has anyone in the Yucatan been killed or affected? Or don’t we bother with them because they aren’t rich WASPs?

Killed, not as far as I know. Affected, yes. There's been pretty bad flooding, but that's expected with a hurricane - typically more people die of drowning than impact damage from flying objects.
------------

If it gives you any comfort, the projected track seems to be shifting every so slightly south which would take the most destructive winds and storm surge away from the most populated areas. It's still going to be bad though, with rainfall totals well over 30cm in some places.

Unfortunately, it looks like the centre of the track has moved a bit further north than it was earlier. It's still not passing directly over either city but it's closer than it was. Given the size of the eyewall, and the fact that they tend to expand once over land, it could be a very rough couple of days for people in both cities.

 

[Merle Haggard]

The BBC Weather app seems pessimistic for Northampton at the moment; warning of 'Hurricane Winds" st the top and the wind indicator shows 4490 mph from the N.E.. It might be higher but the field can only take 4 figures by the look of it

 

[Mcr Warrior]

The BBC Weather app seems pessimistic for Northampton at the moment; warning of 'Hurricane Winds" st the top and the wind indicator shows 4490 mph from the N.E.. It might be higher but the field can only take 4 figures by the look of it

Even higher in Boston. Showing as 15111 mph.

 

[DarloRich]

The BBC Weather app seems pessimistic for Northampton at the moment; warning of 'Hurricane Winds" st the top and the wind indicator shows 4490 mph from the N.E.. It might be higher but the field can only take 4 figures by the look of it

Even higher in Boston. Showing as 15111 mph.

they obviously have a bug in the app somewhere!

 

[Shrop]

they obviously have a bug in the app somewhere!

It's been on several news channels this morning, there is indeed a bug in the system. Carol Kirkwood (BBC weather presenter) has been telling people to ignore the wind speeds and hurricane warnings until the bug is fixed.

 

[dangie]

.….Carol Kirkwood (BBC weather presenter) has been telling people to ignore the wind speeds and hurricane warnings until the bug is fixed.

Some will still believe it, just like some will believe the hurricane was created by the US Government:

False claims about Hurricane Milton's origins spread online

Social media is awash with bogus claims that Hurricane Milton has been “engineered”. What are the facts?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[InkyScrolls]

17,112 where I am!

 

[Shrop]

Some will still believe it, just like some will believe the hurricane was created by the US Government:

False claims about Hurricane Milton's origins spread online

Social media is awash with bogus claims that Hurricane Milton has been “engineered”. What are the facts?

www.bbc.co.uk

Incredible! When I posted at #33 with my joke about Trump saying the hurricane was started by environmentalists, I really didn't think these Republicans could be that stupid. Seems I was wrong!

 

[brad465]

Whilst hurricanes are an ‘accepted’ hazard during the six month hurricane season, is the increase in Category 4/5 destructive hurricanes making Florida an unattractive place to live?

There are a few articles in the Financial Times talking about insurance prospects in the area, including how many insurers will struggle to make profits because of this. I wouldn't be surprised if large parts of the state (that used to be a swamp before huge drainage works), become uninsurable, which essentially means uninhabitable.

Has anyone in the Yucatan been killed or affected? Or don’t we bother with them because they aren’t rich WASPs?

Yucatan avoided a direct hit; the hurricane force winds stayed offshore, so while not unaffected, the area was spared the worst. Below is an image of the wind history showing what Milton has produced so far:

HURRICANE MILTON

(Image of Hurricane Milton's wind history, showing where the tropical storm force and hurricane force winds have been experienced.)

 

[Shrop]

In no way to I intend to belittle the devastating effects of Hurricane Milton, but the dramatics of the politicians and the media really are ridiculous. The Mayor of Tampa was telling everyone that "If you stay here you WILL die". Tampa has over 3 million inhabitants, so if *only* 90% of them really did evacuate, then if we're to believe the Mayor, there will be at least 300,000 bodies today. Yes, the hurricane is serious, but these ridiculous exaggerations really don't help.

Then we have reports on UK TV channels saying there were sustained wind speeds of 120mph, with gusts of 150mph. Now, given that nobody can stand up in even a wind of 80mph, how come there are reporters on site clearly surviving and standing up without too much difficulty? A sustained wind of 120mph with gusts of 150mph for several hours would knock down or at least seriously damage MOST buildings, not just flimsy mobile homes.

Then there is the 15 feet of water that was shown by American TV presenters graphically demonstrating that such a height was well over twice the height of the presenter. Given how flat Florida is, 15 feet of water would travel a long way inland, but it seems that the actual surge was more like 3 feet.

Okay, people need telling, and because many people don't take things seriously enough it needs emphasising, but these exaggerations are not helpful. What it means is that next time (and "next time" is an absolute certainty), many people will assume things won't be as bad as they were told it was going to be, and so they'll stay put. This is where the danger is, ie thinking that TV reports have "cried wolf". We need politicians and reporters to say things like they really are, without the hysteria.

 

[bahnause]

In no way to I intend to belittle the devastating effects of Hurricane Milton, but the dramatics of the politicians and the media really are ridiculous. The Mayor of Tampa was telling everyone that "If you stay here you WILL die". Tampa has over 3 million inhabitants, so if *only* 90% of them really did evacuate, then if we're to believe the Mayor, there will be at least 300,000 bodies today. Yes, the hurricane is serious, but these ridiculous exaggerations really don't help.

But it's you exaggerating, because she never said the whole of Tampa has to evacuate...

 

[Shrop]

But it's you exaggerating, because she never said the whole of Tampa has to evacuate...

Hmm, I hadn't realised that Tampa was so big that some of it was subject to the hurricane threat, when other parts weren't

 

[oldman]

Hmm, I hadn't realised that Tampa was so big that some of it was subject to the hurricane threat, when other parts weren't

Naturally the risks vary from area to area - e.g. coastal flooding mostly happens on the coast - so there were different evacuation orders/advice for different areas.

 

[Merle Haggard]

Returning to the subject of the O.P. - the possibility of a hurricane in the U.K. in the week just ended - in a similar vein may I add the following summary and comparison with the previous one:-

1987; B.B.C. weather forecast; 'Don't worry, there won't be a hurricane!'.
Reality; The Great Storm of 1987.

2024; B.B.C. weather forecast; warning - hurricane winds! winds of between 4,490 m.p.h. and 17,112 m.p.h.
Reality; calm weather.