Possible competition in Northern Ireland

[johncrossley]

From https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/cross-border-bus-services-companies-in-ireland.236885/

They serve markets which Translink aren't interested in or would have minimal effect on Translinks bank balance. If someone tried a Derry to Belfast route though, that wouldn't happen would it? To basically say that the opportunities are slim but there could be some opportunities if it wasn't so locked down to competition.

I had a look online for discussion on possible competition in Northern Ireland. About five years ago, Hannon tried (and obviously failed) to run a service between Derry and Belfast

New Northern Ireland bus link to challenge Translink services

Translink's monopoly on public transport in Northern Ireland is being challenged as a new bus firm plans to compete head to head, the Belfast Telegraph can reveal.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

Translink's monopoly on public transport in Northern Ireland is being challenged as a new bus firm plans to compete head to head, the Belfast Telegraph can reveal.

Hannon Coach wants to run an express service from Belfast to Londonderry and back - operating up to 20 times a day between the cities as part of a multi-million pound investment.

If approved by the Department for Infrastructure, the buses could run from public transport provider Translink's bases at the Europa Bus Centre in Belfast and Foyle Street station in Derry.

There is a debate about it here. The "pro-competition" argument:

We need to remove the Translink monopoly on bus routes to deal with congestion and get people out of their cars…

If you commute into Belfast by car, you will know it is a pretty hellish experience. Congestion is getting worse. At peak times the Westlink is like a car park. Trains are already at capacity, so the best option is to increase bus usage. The Guardian has this to say about the benefits of bus...

sluggerotoole.com

I recently spoke to Eamonn Rooney who runs the popular Newry to Belfast private bus service. If you commute from Newry to Belfast, the Ulsterbus 7:30 am service takes 1 hour and 25mins. The 7:30 am Rooney service does it in 1 hour. For a daily commuter that adds up to a time saving of around 4 hours a week. Currently, Eamonn Rooney is carrying 500-600 passengers a day. That is 500-600 people leaving their cars at home. Rooney can only operate this route as Ulsterbus do not have an Express service from Newry to Belfast.

Eamonn has been battling Translink for over a decade now, and he has some interesting tales to tell. It all gets very technical but essentially to be considered an Express service you need to drive at least 30miles between stops. If you drive less than this, you are considered a stage carriage service. As a stage carriage service, Translink was eligible for a Fuel rebate of an estimated 55p per litre. This added up to a £10 million a year subsidy to Translink. The rebate program has since stopped. As an Express Service Rooney was not eligible for the fuel rebate. So you had this perverse incentive for Ulsterbus not to run Express routes.

Time and again we see where private routes get established commuters flock to the service. The Air Coach has transformed travel between Belfast and Dublin Airport. All other Northern Ireland private companies are chomping at the bit to launch new routes and take commuters out of their cars, but they are being blocked by the existing monopoly supplier. Hannon Coach wanted to run a faster service with fewer stops from Derry/Londonderry to Belfast, but they have also been blocked.

Some tactics that stifle competition:

• You cannot run a private route within 30mins of an Ulsterbus route. This can block new commuter routes as they need to travel within a tight time window for user demand. As you can imagine commuters want to be in Belfast by 9 am.
• Blocking access to the bus stations: Rooney had to fight for years to get access to the Europa Bus Centre. They now have access at the cost of two grand a month. You might think fair enough, it is Translink’s station after all. But it was funded with public and European money.
• Predatory pricing: if you do manage to jump through all the hoops and get a private service established, you might just find that Ulsterbus slash their prices on that same route to try to drive you out of business. Even if Ulsterbus are making a loss on that route.

And here's someone's reply:

Why extra competition for Translink could in fact make things worse. Far worse.

Brian let me see his post before he published it earlier on today, but it lacks context. That context is the purpose of a private company, ie to make money. As I’ve outlined before, here, here and here and probably other places besides, there are several fundamental problems with the operating...

sluggerotoole.com

Brian let me see his post before he published it earlier on today, but it lacks context.

That context is the purpose of a private company, ie to make money.

As I’ve outlined before, here, here and here and probably other places besides, there are several fundamental problems with the operating model in Northern Ireland.

The first is that Translink is expected to run loss-making services on no more than the cash it gets in the farebox and for concessionary fares. Basically, for free.

That means that Translink needs a free hand to run its few profitable services (Goldline and certain Metro services) so that it can keep operating the services that nobody else will run because the Department for Infrastructure won’t provide direct subsidy for local bus services. Like the service from Newry to Rostrevor – the reason why Translink can’t beat Eamon Rooney on price is that Rooneys just run to Warrenpoint and Rostrevor on the way home, as it were (and it is a great service.) The marginal cost of running Rostrevor-Newry as well as Newry-Belfast is, in reality, nil.

For Translink? Not so much. Translink doesn’t offer an express service from Newry to Belfast because it would have to use extra buses and drivers to do so – passengers from Dromore and Banbridge and their politicians would make their views pretty clear if they were forced to use the local Newry-Belfast service.

So it would cost money. Because Translink fares are pitched to pay for loss-making services without forcing passengers away, they still couldn’t compete with Rooneys.

And that is probably why Hannons was turned down. Because if Hannon can exploit the lucrative traffic from Belfast to Derry in a way that they would not be permitted to in GB under the same rules, Translink will lose more money.

And if Translink loses more money, fares have to go up, services have to be cut, or Department for Infrastructure has to start paying Public Service Obligation to keep loss-making services running.

Which, bluntly, means one thing.

Worse services, costing passengers more, and costing ratepayers more.

Then there is subsequent mention of the London tendering system. I feel this is the only realistic way of getting private operators to run a significant amount of buses and coaches in Northern Ireland.