Possible Alternatives to HS2

[Harvey B]

The "problematic areas" are mostly Phase 1 (Chilterns).

Stop HS2 - Google My Maps

The approximate route of the proposed High Speed 2 line between London and Birmingham based on information available in <a href="http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedrail/summary/">http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedrail/summary/</a> Map is derived from OpenStreetMap data and is...

www.google.com

Also, Looking at this Map, It looks like either goes Near these "Problematic Areas" or Tunnels will be used and I think as Construction Progresses. You'll see that more Tunnels will probably be used or the areas

 

[Bletchleyite]

Phase 1 is so progressed now, you might as well keep going, especially when you consider that it's capacity will still be there in 100+ years time.

If Covid drops demand by about 20% back to ~2012 levels, and then grows organically from that (as railway demand always has done, being as much related to population growth as to travel/working habits etc.), it won't be very many years until HS2's capacity is needed anyway on the southern WCML. Covid just kicks the can down the road for a bit.

I suppose it depends on how the use of that capacity develops. I don't doubt that leisure travel will pretty much do what you say, and return in pretty much exactly the same form it previously existed, albeit slowly. However commuter traffic may never return - the pattern may well shift to something completely different based on far more home-working, and tend more (not less) that way over time. And it's at peak times when the south WCML is really crammed, with quite a number of off-pattern peak extras on LNR, even though Avanti operates the same timetable all day, all week, pretty much (give or take I think one peak extra).

How much is Phase 1 progressed? Has any tunnelling started, for example? That'll be the really expensive bit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Feb 2021 ==

I have always argued that Phase 2 is actually needed more than Phase 1. Capacity issues around Manchester and issues around Sheffield and Leeds that prevent expansion should have been sorted years ago and badly need HS2/NPR. But I live in the North so guess I would say that

I used to argue that Phase 1 was more needed, but if commuter demand shifts I could tend towards your view.

 

[Ianno87]

How much is Phase 1 progressed? Has any tunnelling started, for example? That'll be the really expensive bit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Feb 2021 ==

Well, TBMs are assembled, portal areas prepared and contracts signed (AIUI), so in contractual terms they are near enough as-good-as-if-they-were-built at this point.

I used to argue that Phase 1 was more needed, but if commuter demand shifts I could tend towards your view.

Cancelling Phase 1 now will come at an abortive cost into the billions, and won't make the northern solutions appear any quicker anyway. And whilst there is plenty of speculation about how and when demand will return, it could quite easily outstrip all our expectations, especially in the longer run.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Some of these environmentalists are protesting simply because they see transport as bad and that we should try to live and work in the same area, they essentially want us to go back to Victorian times when rail travel on a regular basis was only for the wealthy. Some are also professional protestors, who simply protest against schemes with no rational!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Some of these environmentalists are protesting simply because they see transport as bad and that we should try to live and work in the same area

It is and we should. It's very much like reduce, reuse, recycle. The orders of (environmental) priority for domestic journeys are essentially:

1. Don't travel, or walk or cycle
2. Use public transport
3. Drive an electric car
4. Drive an ICE car
5. Fly

There are things for which travel is necessary, and some people enjoy it, but a very large amount of work-related travel can be avoided and therefore should be. And yes, we need to look at the housing market to enable people to work closer to home. Getting rid of stamp duty would be a start - there should not be a tax on workforce mobility.

 

[Purple Orange]

Stop HS2 - Google My Maps

The approximate route of the proposed High Speed 2 line between London and Birmingham based on information available in <a href="http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedrail/summary/">http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedrail/summary/</a> Map is derived from OpenStreetMap data and is...

www.google.com

Also, Looking at this Map, It looks like either goes Near these "Problematic Areas" or Tunnels will be used and I think as Construction Progresses. You'll see that more Tunnels will probably be used or the areas

That map is from Stop HS2? It goes to show how little they care about the northern lines given the little accuracy given to the route both of Birmingham compared to the south where their focus and attention sits.

 

[The Planner]

I suppose it depends on how the use of that capacity develops. I don't doubt that leisure travel will pretty much do what you say, and return in pretty much exactly the same form it previously existed, albeit slowly. However commuter traffic may never return - the pattern may well shift to something completely different based on far more home-working, and tend more (not less) that way over time. And it's at peak times when the south WCML is really crammed, with quite a number of off-pattern peak extras on LNR, even though Avanti operates the same timetable all day, all week, pretty much (give or take I think one peak extra).

How much is Phase 1 progressed? Has any tunnelling started, for example? That'll be the really expensive bit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Feb 2021 ==



I used to argue that Phase 1 was more needed, but if commuter demand shifts I could tend towards your view.

Lots of stuff starts proper this summer, especially in the West Mids. Some of the diverted roads around the NEC and actual bridges over the HS2 main line at Interchange aren't far away from being used from pictures I have seen.

 

[Bald Rick]

How much is Phase 1 progressed? Has any tunnelling started, for example? That'll be the really expensive bit.

Tunnelling contracts all let, first TBMs launching within weeks.

But tunnelling isn’t actually that expensive as an engineering activity (although it is clearly more expensive than not tunnelling!) The expensive bit is all the planning, consents, design work and land costs. I forget the detail, but fairly sure HS2 have spent well over £10bn now, and committed to a majority of the rest.

Cancelling Phase 1 now will come at an abortive cost into the billions

At least £20bn, I should imagine. The business case for Phase 1 is now exceptional, as you get all the benefit for about half the cost.

 

[Harvey B]

That map is from Stop HS2? It goes to show how little they care about the northern lines given the little accuracy given to the route both of Birmingham compared to the south where their focus and attention sits.

And even with that Stop HS2 map it shows that the (Approximate) Route does these Problematic Areas but far enough away to say that it isn't a Concern (In Short it won't cut through the areas that SHS2 say it will)

 

[MackTen]

Humans are rubbish at predicting the future. The more radical the predicted change, the least likely it will come true. A significant proportion of working people being able to and actually wanting to work from home in the next 20 years, is fantasy land stuff. Three different variables (quantity, ability, desire).

A critical railway line that was already full, becoming a drain on the economy if significant extra capacity wasn't found soon, barely even qualifies as a prediction. One variable, time. It says a lot that it has taken a global pandemic to alter that prediction, and even then, probably only pushes it back a couple of years.

People are so dumb, they couldn't even predict the societal change from doing your weekly shop and more in a Tesco Extra, to several trips to a Tesco Metro and online shoping. Even though we were all doing it. That's just ten years of change, if that.

It just happened, Tesco executives had a heart attack, and adjustments were made. Jobs were lost. Jobs were created. Land was wasted. Squirrels died. Probably.

Chaos theory.

When you can accurately predict even a simple but critically important thing like where people are gonna be doing their food shopping in ten years time, within a margin or certainty of 10%, then call me. If not, get back in your tunnels and tree houses and wait for your evolutionary future.

 

[Harvey B]

This is a list of the woods that are at risk. Barring 1 or 2 sites that are 2ha and 3ha most of them are 1.5 ha at the very largest and In My Opinion, they aren't really that concerning so why are they causing all of this fuss.

Woods under threat from HS2 – Google My Maps

Woods under threat from HS2

www.google.com

EDIT: The total amount of Woodland lost for 30.96ha and for the whole project it'll probably be around 100ha and to put that into Perspective, there's around 3 million ha of woodland in the UK so we're not going to be losing alot

 

[Harvey B]

I want to reignite this.

I can't get my head around why some people can think that we could do a better job by just Expanding the 3 Mainlines we have Already. It's Costly and I just don't see it being Viable. What do these people want the Government to do? Just Cancel HS2, Sit Back and Do Nothing?

 

[6Gman]

Or Fourth Build HS2 but try to avoid these problematic Areas

Most of the problematic areas have already been avoided. For all the noise the ecological impact is remarkably small for a project of its size.

 

[Ianno87]

Most of the problematic areas have already been avoided. For all the noise the ecological impact is remarkably small for a project of its size.

In fact, avoiding one "problematic area" probably results in it hitting two others instead.

What HS2 *doesn't* impact is quite remarkable.

 

[6Gman]

Birmingham to London to stay. Then Completely redo the Midland Mainline and make a Leeds to manchester high-speed link, and loop it round to Stockport and use the lay by as a terminus. Therefore You get the Manchester to Midland services taking a lot less time and run express services from manchester to London via 1 or 2 stops. as well as high-speed stoppers. This will take journey time longer than hs2 but you already build a part of the northern high-speed link. So the larger increase in price has little justification. You could also renovate the Sheffield route to Sheffield so that you don't need to go all the way to Leeds. Which would cost less money but you then don't have the Leeds to manchester already built for the next project.

Not sure I understand all of this.

What does "redo" the Midland Mainline mean?
What do you mean by a Leeds-Manchester high-speed link (what - if anything - does it then link to?) and how does it "loop" to Stockport?
What do you mean by a "lay by"?
How do Manchester to Midland services take a lot less time?
Which way do these "Manchester to London via 1 or 2 stops" travel?
Which "Sheffield route to Sheffield" are you proposing to "renovate"? And how?

 

[Ianno87]

Not sure I understand all of this.

I don't think he/she does either.

 

[Yossarian22]

removed

 

[D365]

Also going to add an edit about capacity and working from home and tech (zoom etc):
- Even if we start working from home more people are travelling more frequently for leisure today than ever before (pre-pandemic) and will want to in the future
- Working from home makes people want to travel for leisure because they start to often feel cooped and seek to access the outside world out of work
- While tech like zoom etc means large businesses require les physical business travel it has also opened the door for small businesses to work cross country rather than just in their home towns/cities. This will require them to book business travel at some point... so less business travel but more businesses traveling
- Tech like zoom and smart phones and Facebook mean people are more likely to keep up connections/friendships across large distances so will travel more for these
- HS2 is not and should not be supplementary to air and road but should seek to destroy as much private car and passenger air travel as possible

Exactly, these are key points that the anti mob seem to be missing - perhaps intentionally.

 

[Chester1]

As some have said think of HS2 as a 3-1 railway... the alternative is a west coast high speed line to replace the WCML (Lon-Birm-Manc-Carl-Glas etc) AND an east coast high speed line to replace the MML and ECML (Lon-Leic-Nott/Darb-Sheff-Leeds-New Castle-Edinburgh) AND a high speed line from Birmingham to Nottingham potentially branching off to Lincoln to the east and Bristol and Cardiff to the west... which would be AMAZING in terms of capacity, something like 70,000 people an hour for just the east and west high speed lines but if you think people are loosing it over just HS2 imagine what would happen over 3 high speed lines

Also going to add an edit about capacity and working from home and tech (zoom etc):
- Even if we start working from home more people are travelling more frequently for leisure today than ever before (pre-pandemic) and will want to in the future
- Working from home makes people want to travel for leisure because they start to often feel cooped and seek to access the outside world out of work
- While tech like zoom etc means large businesses require les physical business travel it has also opened the door for small businesses to work cross country rather than just in their home towns/cities. This will require them to book business travel at some point... so less business travel but more businesses traveling
- Tech like zoom and smart phones and Facebook mean people are more likely to keep up connections/friendships across large distances so will travel more for these
- HS2 is not and should not be supplementary to air and road but should seek to destroy as much private car and passenger air travel as possible

Home working certainly increases journeys people are prepared to make for work. If its only once a week traveling from the North West to London makes sense for a fairly well paid job. 3 days a week in the office and the limit of traditional commuting is pushed (although not by as much). Based on extending previous trends the pandemic should increase long distance journeys in the long term. Its the 30-60 minute journeys that will get hammered by more home working.

 

[HST43257]

Its the 30-60 minute journeys that will get hammered by more home working.

so you’re not confident in, say, the birmingham to London flow?

 

[Bletchleyite]

so you’re not confident in, say, the birmingham to London flow?

That isn't and won't be a big daily commuter flow. While the journey time will be fitting for one, the price won't, and housing isn't so much cheaper in nice areas of Birmingham than nice areas of Milton Keynes or Northampton, say (much as I like Birmingham, you have to go further north to get a lot cheaper to make a annual season of over ten grand worthwhile). I suspect the OP was referring to commuter flows on the classic lines - stuff like MKC to Euston.

 

[The Planner]

That isn't and won't be a big daily commuter flow. While the journey time will be fitting for one, the price won't, and housing isn't so much cheaper in nice areas of Birmingham than nice areas of Milton Keynes or Northampton, say (much as I like Birmingham, you have to go further north to get a lot cheaper to make a annual season of over ten grand worthwhile). I suspect the OP was referring to commuter flows on the classic lines - stuff like MKC to Euston.

I would disagree pre COVID. International to London judging on how full the car park was on the occasions I have seen it suggests that it has a big catchment area. Especially with the Audi/BMW/Range Rover set.

 

[37424]

I want to reignite this.

I can't get my head around why some people can think that we could do a better job by just Expanding the 3 Mainlines we have Already. It's Costly and I just don't see it being Viable. What do these people want the Government to do? Just Cancel HS2, Sit Back and Do Nothing?

The problem is that Jo Public see headline figures for the cost of HS2 and think its expensive, so then they turn around and say well lets just upgrade the existing lines without appreciating just how expensive, difficult and disruptive that will be. Then of course some of these people would be the first to complain if there journey was disrupted for years as we attempted major upgrades of these routes instead of HS2.

 

[camflyer]

The problem is that Jo Public see headline figures for the cost of HS2 and think its expensive, so then they turn around and say well lets just upgrade the existing lines without appreciating just how expensive, difficult and disruptive that will be. Then of course some of these people would be the first to complain if there journey was disrupted for years as we attempted major upgrades of these routes instead of HS2.

I'm sure the same groups complaining about HS2 would be up in arms if there was a big project announced to upgrade each of the mainlines out of London with the required costs, land purchases and continuous bus replacement services for the next decade.

 

[D365]

I'm sure the same groups complaining about HS2 would be up in arms if there was a big project announced to upgrade each of the mainlines out of London with the required costs, land purchases and continuous bus replacement services for the next decade.

Ever since the advent of Zoom, Teams etc, I get the feeling that some individuals are utterly convinced that rail travel will become extinct. And that home working will mean we never need to build new railway lines again.

 

[Purple Orange]

That isn't and won't be a big daily commuter flow. While the journey time will be fitting for one, the price won't, and housing isn't so much cheaper in nice areas of Birmingham than nice areas of Milton Keynes or Northampton, say (much as I like Birmingham, you have to go further north to get a lot cheaper to make a annual season of over ten grand worthwhile). I suspect the OP was referring to commuter flows on the classic lines - stuff like MKC to Euston.

House prices aside, one train has 1,100 seats. At 3 tph that means at most there are 9 services from Birmingham to London before 9am, which is assuming the services at 6am are full! That means 9,900 people from Curzon Street & Birmingham Interchange can commute to London on a given day. The West Midlands conurbation has a population of 3 million people, meaning 0.33% of people can realistically make it a habit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Feb 2021 ==

Ever since the advent of Zoom, Teams etc, I get the feeling that some individuals are utterly convinced that rail travel will become extinct. And that home working will mean we never need to build new railway lines again.

Screw that. I’m sooo fed up of using Teams and working from home every day! It has its place, but 5 days per week is not it.

 

[Ianno87]

House prices aside, one train has 1,100 seats. At 3 tph that means at most there are 9 services from Birmingham to London before 9am, which is assuming the services at 6am are full! That means 9,900 people from Curzon Street & Birmingham Interchange can commute to London on a given day. The West Midlands conurbation has a population of 3 million people, meaning 0.33% of people can realistically make it a habit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Feb 2021 ==

Or 1.66% can trip, if everybody who does does it one day per week.

Screw that. I’m sooo fed up of using Teams and working from home every day! It has its place, but 5 days per week is not it.

Ditto.

 

[D365]

Screw that. I’m sooo fed up of using Teams and working from home every day! It has its place, but 5 days per week is not it.

Which is exactly why HS2 (and long distance travel in general) is going to become more appealing.

Fair enough that this thread/discussion exists, but in reality, HS2 construction has got going at exactly the right moment.

 

[Ianno87]

Which is exactly why HS2 (and long distance travel in general) is going to become more appealing.

Fair enough that this thread/discussion exists, but in reality, HS2 construction has got going at exactly the right moment.

Once Covid is in the history books, people will want to travel again, no question about it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Which is exactly why HS2 (and long distance travel in general) is going to become more appealing.

Fair enough that this thread/discussion exists, but in reality, HS2 construction has got going at exactly the right moment.

About 5 years to late, if we’re being honest.