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It certainly doesn't create a good impression being in one of those trains and hearing the conductor describing the situation as normal. The not knowing if you will or won't make a connection, and if your final arrival time will be 5 or 50 minutes late.
It's all very well having a theoretical capacity of x trains per hour but, as many are now saying, it's one thing to have a series of the same class of trains on the same route with the same stops. It's something else when you have several stations at which some trains all stop, others only stop at one, some trains are 2 carriages, others may be up to 8, different classes, with very long freight services trying to run through non-stop in between them.
Most of the trains aren't standard local loop suburban type services. They pick up delays from as far away as Edinburgh, Glasgow, Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Cleethorpes, Norwich, Liverpool and a whole lot more places I invite all to add in. The delays are diverse, many totally random, but some are quite predictable.
The more trains arriving into the Manchester area on time the better able Platforms 13 and 14 will be to maximise their capacity - obvious to us all, surely.
It's all those minutes here, there and everywhere that contribute to the state we're now in. It's the butterfly effect where one minor action creates a chain of ever increasing bigger actions.
One trivial example from my local station, but I'm willing to bet most readers will be able to think of one or two near them. The 7.14 TPE 185 to Manchester picks up about 100 in school term time. A recent victory, it usually now has 6 coaches, in two 3 car units, with first class in both, coaches lettered A-F. Many passengers have reservations. There'll be no prior announcement whether A will be at front (usually) or back.
Where do passengers wait? That's where a strategy is forming. It's only a 4 car platform so A-C will be in but all those wanting D-F will need to board through D. The huddle at one end of the platform may find they've got it wrong! Today F is at the front! Even if it's not A-C may have standees already so more go towards D. This is a 1 minute booked stop. That's only achieved on Fridays and 3 minutes is not unusual.
If we want to push more, and/or longer, trains through the network we need more micro mangement to look at little details all around the country. Tweeking of timetabling to have achievable times. Looking at more platform extentions. Through corridor connections on all new rolling stock to allow easy communication within trains. Smarter signalling. New passing loops where space is available (it wasn't just branch lines that the Beeching era axed).
The Northern Hub included a range of projects. Too many are stalled without realising the greater benefits for the north need them all in place. My little station is a single track, single platform bottleneck on the Sheffield-Manchester line thanks to a nonsensical decision in 1985 to remove 3 platforms and shorten the one that was left from 6 car to 4. The Hope Valley Capacity Scheme should have had that put right with trains due to run from December 2018. Despite the TWAO eventually getting the green light in February 2018 we still don't know when, or even if, work will start. Network Rail have said they hope in 2019, maybe trains running by December 2021, but it's gone exceedingly quiet! It's now looking as though that wasn't a green light at all, maybe not even a double amber!
The result is that the Hope Valley line will continue to contribute more delays across the country than it should. That's a small scheme. How many more little improvements across the nation are similarly being delayed?
Platforms 15 and 16 are the most obvious component part of this giant spiders web centred on Manchester. If not 15 and 16 a massive tunnelled solution needs to be found.
Happened to be by the Humber recently and came across the
River Humber pipeline replacement project. It's a massive scheme including a large 5km tunnel to house a new pipeline below the Humber. We do do tunnelling in the north, quietly where few will notice. Under Manchester, and with a wider bore and overground access points may be rather more delicate - and expensive!
And there's the
23 mile tunnel being bored under the North York Moors for Sirius Minerals.
Is there the vision?
Apparently there is if we can believe Jo Johnson, but in the meantime, and that probably means 10+ years, we're stuck with what we have now!
