Passenger rail usage October to December 2021

[hello]

I assume the passenger journeys were derived from ORCATS. If this was the case then the number of passenger journeys by TOC will be broadly in line with the number of trains operated over each section. (I know it is more complicated than that but it works as a broad comparison).
On a number of routes some operators are running fewer services whilst others have, more or less, maintained services levels. Therefore looking at Cross Country in comparison to others

Edinburgh to Newcastle
Pre Covid one train per hour
Post Covid one train per two hours
but LNER have maintained two trains per hour meaning XC's share of passengers drops from roughly one third to one sixth whilst LNER's rises from two thirds to four fifths.

Newcastle to York
Pre Covid two trains per hour
Post Covid one train per hour
TPE have also cut services from two trains per hour to one whilst LNER have maintained two.
So the XC share drops from one third to one quarter (as does TPE). LNER's share rises from one third to one half.

Doncaster to Sheffield
Pre Covid one train per hour
Post Covid very few
So virtually no share of a large flow.

Similar statistics can be applied to other XC flows
e.g
Oxford to Reading
Reading to Basingstoke
Bristol to Plymouth
Wolverhampton to Birmingham

Also by cutting out stops at places such as Chesterfield and Winchester relatively large flows are lost to XC but transferred to other operators.

I like this post, it just goes to show how figures and spread sheets can be manipulated by withdrawing tocs services, to make other tocs look more preferable. The example you have used is excellent as I believe xc are only running about 65% of there pre covid timetable, whilst like you say, other tocs are picking up there passengers

 

[Bald Rick]

Most tocs are increasing to pre covid service levels from May by the looks of things

not sure where you get that idea from. Most TOCs are running the same service from May that they are running now.

The LNER figures look even better when you consider that the baseline (two years ago) didn't have any competition from Lumo)

Lumo is barely a scratch on LNER passenger numbers, in that timeframe. they only started in October With a handful of trains a day. Compared to LNERs 160.

 

[Goldfish62]

not sure where you get that idea from. Most TOCs are running the same service from May that they are running now.

Indeed and SWR, for example, is most probably never going to return to pre-Covid levels or anywhere near.

 

[northwichcat]

A lot of London based businesses now seem to be recruiting based on remote working with occasional office visits. It means some of the roles are going to people in the north of England who are recruited on a lower salary but with the cost of occasional travel to and from the office included as a perk.

 

[Goldfish62]

A lot of London based businesses now seem to be recruiting based on remote working with occasional office visits. It means some of the roles are going to people in the north of England who are recruited on a lower salary but with the cost of occasional travel to and from the office included as a perk.

Yes, I've noticed that. Clearly a long-term shift.

 

[Killingworth]

A lot of London based businesses now seem to be recruiting based on remote working with occasional office visits. It means some of the roles are going to people in the north of England who are recruited on a lower salary but with the cost of occasional travel to and from the office included as a perk.

My sons have team members working remotely from countries like Lithuania - and Ukraine! Rarely come to the UK let alone a central office location.

 

[158756]

Some interesting bits in the passenger km per journey table which I don't think has been commented on yet.

C2C down 12% - guessing commuters from further out in Essex are down more than journeys within London.

GWR, TfW and Northern up significantly (so Northern are actually second in terms of passenger km recovery behind LNER). Suggests their short distance traffic around London/Cardiff/Manchester/Leeds isn't doing well, or certainly worse than longer regional journeys. The shorter routes in these TOCs generally don't have the frequency or density of stations of the TfL/Overground/Merseyrail services which seem to have held up better.

 

[fgwrich]

Some interesting bits in the passenger km per journey table which I don't think has been commented on yet.

C2C down 12% - guessing commuters from further out in Essex are down more than journeys within London.

GWR, TfW and Northern up significantly (so Northern are actually second in terms of passenger km recovery behind LNER). Suggests their short distance traffic around London/Cardiff/Manchester/Leeds isn't doing well, or certainly worse than longer regional journeys. The shorter routes in these TOCs generally don't have the frequency or density of stations of the TfL/Overground/Merseyrail services which seem to have held up better.

I'm not surprised GWR are up - particularly on the leisure passenger front. I spent my Sunday just gone in London, and had to wait for 4 IETs at Reading to go through before I could actually get on one. Of those, 3/4 were either 9 or 10 car, 1 was a 5 car (ex Great Malvern). Even then and despite it being a 10 car, it was still a standing room only journey into Padd. The return journey on SWR was busy, but not to full and standing levels.

 

[WatcherZero]

Some interesting bits in the passenger km per journey table which I don't think has been commented on yet.

C2C down 12% - guessing commuters from further out in Essex are down more than journeys within London.

GWR, TfW and Northern up significantly (so Northern are actually second in terms of passenger km recovery behind LNER). Suggests their short distance traffic around London/Cardiff/Manchester/Leeds isn't doing well, or certainly worse than longer regional journeys. The shorter routes in these TOCs generally don't have the frequency or density of stations of the TfL/Overground/Merseyrail services which seem to have held up better.

Though remember the governments cut to Northern services through Manchester as part of the timetable recovery plan are still to come this December.

 

[yorksrob]

Though remember the governments cut to Northern services through Manchester as part of the timetable recovery plan are still to come this December.

This seems ridiculous when the existing Northern services managed to work like clockwork through Manchester throughout the whole of the pandemic. There surely can't be any more reductions they can use 2018 as an excuse for.

 

[davetheguard]

GWR, TfW and Northern up significantly (so Northern are actually second in terms of passenger km recovery behind LNER). Suggests their short distance traffic around London/Cardiff/Manchester/Leeds isn't doing well, or certainly worse than longer regional journeys. The shorter routes in these TOCs generally don't have the frequency or density of stations of the TfL/Overground/Merseyrail services which seem to have held up better.

Actually, down here in Devon at least, the local trains seem pretty busy, both peak & off peak. It's the London bound trains that seem to be much quieter than pre-Covid.

 

[northwichcat]

GWR, TfW and Northern up significantly (so Northern are actually second in terms of passenger km recovery behind LNER). Suggests their short distance traffic around London/Cardiff/Manchester/Leeds isn't doing well, or certainly worse than longer regional journeys.

With Northern it's mainly the peak time extras that are still missing. Where this is happening it may mean 4 carriages every hour instead of 2 every half-hour but the number of seats occupied is lower.

Some of the Saturday Northern local services around Manchester are now as rammed as they were pre-COVID. I'd even say Piccadilly station is now generally busier on Saturdays then it was pre-COVID. Possibly if some people are working from home they don't have the opportunity to do certain things during their lunch hour or after work, so are doing those things at the weekend instead?

 

[Peterthegreat]

With Northern it's mainly the peak time extras that are still missing. Where this is happening it may mean 4 carriages every hour instead of 2 every half-hour but the number of seats occupied is lower.

Some of the Saturday Northern local services around Manchester are now as rammed as they were pre-COVID. I'd even say Piccadilly station is now generally busier on Saturdays then it was pre-COVID. Possibly if some people are working from home they don't have the opportunity to do certain things during their lunch hour or after work, so are doing those things at the weekend instead?

It may be peak hour services that are missing in your part of the woods but that is certainly not the case on the other side of the Pennines.

 

[northwichcat]

It may be peak hour services that are missing in your part of the woods but that is certainly not the case on the other side of the Pennines.

I said mainly not exclusively in reply to a post specifically mentioning London, Cardiff, Manchester and Leeds. Perhaps you can add to the discussion by saying which lines in the Manchester and Leeds areas are missing other services?

 

[Peterthegreat]

I said mainly not exclusively in reply to a post specifically mentioning London, Cardiff, Manchester and Leeds. Perhaps you can add to the discussion by saying which lines in the Manchester and Leeds areas are missing other services?

The Northern Network is not just Manchester and Leeds despite what some people think!

 

[northwichcat]

The Northern Network is not just Manchester and Leeds despite what some people think!

So again why not add something constructive to the discussion.

Which lines are you referring to?
How many services are they missing?
How much of a negative impact is this having on passenger numbers from your personal observations?

If the decrease in passengers is proportional to the decrease in the level of service then it's not relevant in this context. I understand the Northern network isn't just Manchester and Leeds. I also understand in this context it probably is the biggest cities, that had the greatest commuter flows pre-COVID, that will have seen the biggest change in demand post-COVID.

 

[tommy2215]

I said mainly not exclusively in reply to a post specifically mentioning London, Cardiff, Manchester and Leeds. Perhaps you can add to the discussion by saying which lines in the Manchester and Leeds areas are missing other services?

Manchester Airport - Liverpool via Warrington Central is missing. Manchester - Rose Hill Marple frequency is halved most hours. 1tph axed between Manchester and Preston. Atherton line has a reduced service. Northern services into Leeds are getting significant cuts in May. Its a lot more than just peak services missing on Northern.

 

[Peterthegreat]

So again why not add something constructive to the discussion.

Which lines are you referring to?
How many services are they missing?
How much of a negative impact is this having on passenger numbers from your personal observations?

If the decrease in passengers is proportional to the decrease in the level of service then it's not relevant in this context. I understand the Northern network isn't just Manchester and Leeds. I also understand in this context it probably is the biggest cities, that had the greatest commuter flows pre-COVID, that will have seen the biggest change in demand post-COVID.

Ok. To add to the discussion:-
Doncaster to Scunthorpe - Hourly train service replaced by Two hourly bus service
Sheffield to Doncaster (local service) Reduced by 2/3rds (two trains per hour reduced to two trains per three hours). Early and late trains cut.
Sheffield to York via Pontefract trains replaced by buses between Moorthorpe and York
Huddersfield to Wakefield/Castleford trains replaced by buses
Sheffield to Gainsborough stopping service basically withdrawn
Hull to Bridlington reduced from half hourly to hourly.
Doncaster to Hull stopping services reduced from hourly to 2 trains per three hours

Further reductions will apply to off peak services in May on a number of routes in south and west Yorkshire.

Although not totally relevant to this particular discussions ad hoc cancellations have been far higher on the East side of the Pennines
For example in the latest period 12.7% of services in South and East Yorkshire were cancelled. Today two consecutive Sheffield to Huddersfield trains are cancelled. This level of reliability will no doubt impact on passenger levels.

 

[Moonshot]

Ok. To add to the discussion:-
Doncaster to Scunthorpe - Hourly train service replaced by Two hourly bus service
Sheffield to Doncaster (local service) Reduced by 2/3rds (two trains per hour reduced to two trains per three hours). Early and late trains cut.
Sheffield to York via Pontefract trains replaced by buses between Moorthorpe and York
Huddersfield to Wakefield/Castleford trains replaced by buses
Sheffield to Gainsborough stopping service basically withdrawn
Hull to Bridlington reduced from half hourly to hourly.
Doncaster to Hull stopping services reduced from hourly to 2 trains per three hours

Further reductions will apply to off peak services in May on a number of routes in south and west Yorkshire.

Although not totally relevant to this particular discussions ad hoc cancellations have been far higher on the East side of the Pennines
For example in the latest period 12.7% of services in South and East Yorkshire were cancelled. Today two consecutive Sheffield to Huddersfield trains are cancelled. This level of reliability will no doubt impact on passenger levels.

Indeed. Northerns service at the moment is just too unreliable. The levels of cancellation would be a lot less if drivers were actually allowed to work their own rest days by choices