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Passenger numbers vs revenue

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Richardr

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Am also curious about this, both for that date and how useful the figures are in general. The methodology note hasn't been updated for some time (despite showing as updated whenever the data is) so it may have changed since, but the data quality for the National Rail section has some big caveats including seemingly based on when tickets are sold than used:

By contrast the TfL numbers are calculated based on entry/exit and bus taps which may explain the difference on that day.
Thanks. The note includes:
  • Journeys in LENNON are estimated based on the date of ticket sale, rather than the date of intended travel. This includes journeys made with season tickets, which would all be recorded as being made on the date of the ticket purchase. There is therefore a risk of overestimating the number of journeys for season tickets and advanced tickets on a given day (and conversely underestimating them at other times)
Thus season tickets are not allocated, but count as "around" 480 journeys on the date of purchase (for an annual). Given it was a strike day, I find it difficult to believe that anyone (or at least more than a very few people) bought a season ticket that day.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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If office working is dying, why are new office blocks still being built in many cities?
There is a dichotomy here as its not only office block construction but companies are still leasing office space as well yet seem content to allow hybrid/flexible working. It is the latter arrangements that have taken a scythe to season ticket revenue however i always told that the high peak was extremely expensive to run so surely part of the answer is to remove the resources that deliver that element.
 

Horizon22

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Really the problem for the railways is not so much will commuting ever return to the pre covid level, it won't, the WFH genie is well and truly out of the bottle, but where will it settle. Everyone has their own theory, mine is that where we are are now is pretty well where it is going to continue. Companies are finding it difficult to get people to spend potentially 100s or even 1000s of pounds and hours to commute into an office to do a job they can do equally well without commuting. The current you must attend the office 2 or 3 days a week is already being eroded, as companies realise that they can save money by reducing office space, and trips to the office become much more to do with face 2 face meetings or hands on work which needs a physical presence. Thats certainly the way my work goes. I negotiated a WFH 100% unless needed physically in place of a rate increase this year, saves me money and time, saves them money, we both come out ahead. I must be one of a growing band.

Indeed - the DfT are also asking these questions and one wonders how long it will be until they've decided it has "settled"; at the moment it's still considered somewhat fluid, hence a lack of a concrete commtment on longer-term services and timetables which is not ideal for railway management, staff or passengers.
 

yorksrob

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Indeed - the DfT are also asking these questions and one wonders how long it will be until they've decided it has "settled"; at the moment it's still considered somewhat fluid, hence a lack of a concrete commtment on longer-term services and timetables which is not ideal for railway management, staff or passengers.

Nothing will settle while we're in a constant whirlwind of cuts, understaffing and industrial action.

The DfT should have attempted to establish the pre-covid timetable, minus some peak extras, but instead they've (egged on by the treasury) taken a hatchet to the day to day railway whilst it should have been recovering.
 

JonathanH

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What is the logic behind peak fares anyway ? London Underground is a commuter railway and they don't have them.
London Underground has peak fares in both the morning and afternoon peak, other than in Zone 1 where it is effectively always peak and into Zone 1 in the afternoon peak.
 

yorksrob

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London Underground has peak fares in both the morning and afternoon peak, other than in Zone 1 where it is effectively always peak and into Zone 1 in the afternoon peak.

News to me in that case. I must admit I mostly use the zone 1 bit.
 

JonathanH

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News to me in that case. I must admit I mostly use the zone 1 bit.
Check the single fare finder.

There are admittedly elements of the fare structure where there are all day fares - eg wholly in Zone 1 and fare capping on Oyster / Contactless, but even with fare capping, the all day fare cap was much more than off-peak travelcards cost before it was introduced and higher prices still apply for paper travelcards in the peak
 

JonathanH

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I still think that the peak-off peak distinction as it is today, is fundamentally flawed in the post COVID world.
Right, but your off peak fares will have to increase substantially to balance reductions in fares at peak time.

In places where there are all day fares, people grumble about there not being a cheaper off-peak fare.

I travelled from Narberth to Tenby and back today. One price, £5.80 return for a ten mile journey - no differential between peak and off-peak fares. Psychologically, the absence of an off-peak fare makes me think I am being overcharged for travelling mid-morning.

What you appear to want is *current* off-peak prices all day. What you might get is something between the current peak and off-peak price all day.
 
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yorksrob

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Right, but your off peak fares will have to increase substantially to balance reductions in fares at peak time.

In places where there are all day fares, people grumble about there not being a cheaper off-peak fare.

I travelled from Narberth to Tenby and back today. One price, £5.80 return for a ten mile journey - no differential between peak and off-peak fares. Psychologically, the absence of an off-peak fare makes me think I am being overcharged for travelling mid-morning.

What you appear to want is *current* off-peak prices all day. What you might get is something between the current peak and off-peak price all day.

That's because often the anytime is often the equivalent of an expensive peak time fare in my experience.
 

geoffk

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Not a chance.
The general shift over the last few decades is that passengers pay an increasing share of the costs of the railway rather than taxpayers. The government is trying to reduce the large amounts of subsidy given to the railways over the last couple of years. Something like the €9 ticket is the exact opposite of that.
Are there any passenger rail systems in the world which make an operating profit (exclude metros)? I admit this is hard to answer because of how costs are shared with freight, whether to include pension liabilities etc. And it probably needs a separate thread!
 

E27007

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I do not know olf any, but take the case of Luxembourg, since 2020, all public transport is free , trains buses trams, your ticket to travel is your ID, Luxembourg is a special case, the Tax avoidance haven for the EU, if a company does not want to pay tax, it registers and banks through Luxembourg, the country is flooded with such money, hence can afford the facility of free travel for its citizens.
 

Bald Rick

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Are there any passenger rail systems in the world which make an operating profit (exclude metros)? I admit this is hard to answer because of how costs are shared with freight, whether to include pension liabilities etc. And it probably needs a separate thread!

it depends how you define ‘passenger rail system’ and ‘operating profit’

If you take ’operating profit’ to mean profit after amortised asset replacement costs are taken into account, then:

Much of Japan’s railway makes profit - but note their passenger load factors.

In this country, Pre pandemic, the LNER ‘network’ theoretically made a profit on these terms, although the accounting gets a little fuzzy. Another couple of TOCs got close.


I’m sure there are other examples worldwide.
 

david1212

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For sure but all my railway career we were told how expensive it was to run the high peak so if only the industry can remove those resources and thus cost base the change in travelling pattern ought to be good news. Of course not so easy to remove those resources especially operators with captive rolling stock fleets.

A huge amount of money was spent at London Waterloo extending some platforms for 10 car trains and bringing the Eurostar platforms back into use then there was the additional stock.
Due to the terms set back at privatisation season ticket prices that relatively are low based on 200+ journeys per year e.g. from Basingstoke and further south / west could not be increased other than inflation. With many now only travelling 3 days a week the charge per journey has become more realistic.
The problem for the railway is that the 3 days are mostly Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday rather then an even spread over Monday - Friday so the peak demand / resource requirement remains. If there was an even spread just Monday - Thursday plus those who only now travel occasionally then the stock required could be reduced by say 20%.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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A huge amount of money was spent at London Waterloo extending some platforms for 10 car trains and bringing the Eurostar platforms back into use then there was the additional stock.
Due to the terms set back at privatisation season ticket prices that relatively are low based on 200+ journeys per year e.g. from Basingstoke and further south / west could not be increased other than inflation. With many now only travelling 3 days a week the charge per journey has become more realistic.
The problem for the railway is that the 3 days are mostly Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday rather then an even spread over Monday - Friday so the peak demand / resource requirement remains. If there was an even spread just Monday - Thursday plus those who only now travel occasionally then the stock required could be reduced by say 20%.
Granted but high peak has been chopped off or as BoJo said flatten the sombrero so that should allow a reduction in resources especially one journey only trains with unproductive crews. Thameslink had largely moved to a standard timetable all day long in May 2018 on the core routes the peak hour extras were to serve the like of E.Grinstead and Littlehampton for political/historical reasons and really should be abandoned now. I would have thought once the 701's are in use SWR has the opportunity to follow the Thameslink model and construct a standard interval timetable without the need for rush hour additionals. With the flexibility now gifted to employees they will soon adapt their travelling patterns if trains are too busy.

You are correct that there is a lot of sunk cost in infrastructure now like Waterloo which may never be fully exploited and the costs for such assets, including ongoing mtce, should be ring fenced off by govt in any assessment of how much the industry is costing the taxpayer.
 

mike57

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If office working is dying, why are new office blocks still being built in many cities?
Because the cycle of planning, construction and lease is considerably longer than the pandemic timescales.

'In flight' projects will be completed as a lot of costs are sunk into the project even before construction begins, but give it another 12-24 months and I predict that new construction will be much reduced. There may even be attempts at change of use from commercial to residential but that obviously depends on individual planning authorities.
 

DelW

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A huge amount of money was spent at London Waterloo extending some platforms for 10 car trains ....
Not just at Waterloo - a huge amount of money was spent extending platforms from eight-car to ten-car length throughout the SWR inner suburban area. Many of which are presumably served only by eight car trains again, following the scrapping of all the 456s and the departure of many of the 707s.

Of course, when (or possibly *if*) the 701s do enter SWR service, they will use the full lengths of these platforms, but even then, whether they ever run full enough to justify the sum of money spent remains to be seen.
 

E27007

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Because the cycle of planning, construction and lease is considerably longer than the pandemic timescales.

'In flight' projects will be completed as a lot of costs are sunk into the project even before construction begins, but give it another 12-24 months and I predict that new construction will be much reduced. There may even be attempts at change of use from commercial to residential but that obviously depends on individual planning authorities.
An incentive for companies to move into new premises is lower operating costs of new constructs, and the new constructs are a cleansheet approach for incorporating the backbone IT hardware during fitting out. The grief of adapting 30 year old buildings for the latest purposes was an IT Dept horror story. Still leaves the problem of obsolete buildings without tenants
 

Craig1122

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It also has to allow for contra flow commuters heading out from London as well. Many of those cram into packed trains as well because until about 8am, the trains haven't arrived in London to go back out again.

There are cheaper fares in many cases for the outbound commute from London beyond a certain distance, but absolutely no one can expect off-peak fares until mid-morning.
I'm not sure where you get either of these ideas from. Waterloo for example has pretty much a full timetable starting from around 0600 heading out of London. Admittedly a slightly later start than in bound but certainly not by much

Network South East had a policy of effectively charging off peak fares all day heading away from London over a certain distance and that has survived on many routes to the current day. This is the cause of quite a few worthwhile ticket splits because InterCity charged peak fares both ways. So splitting at the former NSE boundary can still save quite a bit of money.

At the same time operators like SWR have been pushing up off peak fares so there's barely any difference towards London. For example Staines to Waterloo £18.60 Vs £15.10.
 

JonathanH

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I'm not sure where you get either of these ideas from. Waterloo for example has pretty much a full timetable starting from around 0600 heading out of London. Admittedly a slightly later start than in bound but certainly not by much
I was thinking primarily about Victoria to the Sussex Coast. The full pattern of four coastal trains an hour doesn't happen until 8am and the first few Southern departures are formed of 4 coaches (although there are 12-car Gatwick Express services to Brighton).

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...22-08-02/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

As you say, Waterloo is quicker to pick up the all day pattern.

Network South East had a policy of effectively charging off peak fares all day heading away from London over a certain distance and that has survived on many routes to the current day. This is the cause of quite a few worthwhile ticket splits because InterCity charged peak fares both ways. So splitting at the former NSE boundary can still save quite a bit of money.
Yes, agreed. What I meant was that actual 'off-peak' fares don't kick in until later. The anytime fares are, as you say, only slightly more in the morning peak once travelling a certain distance from London in the former NSE area.
 
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mrmartin

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Because the cycle of planning, construction and lease is considerably longer than the pandemic timescales.

'In flight' projects will be completed as a lot of costs are sunk into the project even before construction begins, but give it another 12-24 months and I predict that new construction will be much reduced. There may even be attempts at change of use from commercial to residential but that obviously depends on individual planning authorities.

There's still a lot of demand for brand new shiny skyscraper "grade A" office space in London at least. The problem (as another reply alluded) is the older lower quality office space which these tenants will move from, which is definitely not in demand at all. There can still be a hugely shrinking market but the "top end" of it grow substantially, as the (most visible) top end parket of the market is actually a very small %age.

To be honest even pre pandemic a lot of places had way too much space - there was WFH happening already back then, and often companies which lost headcount wouldn't really want to sublet/move much. I think the post pandemic has both (obviously) reduced the amount of people coming in, but also made a lot of those companies rationalise their office space inventory which they probably wouldn't have bothered with.

I think long term it will even out pretty quickly. I don't think the drop will be as much as people think it will - Friday's were often WFH in London anyway, so I can see Tues-Thurs being core office days and Fri-Mon weekend/WFH. It seems to be where most companies are getting to.
 

mike57

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Friday's were often WFH in London anyway, so I can see Tues-Thurs being core office days and Fri-Mon weekend/WFH. It seems to be where most companies are getting to.
I can also see a slow erosion over time, people such as myself will not go back to spending time and mmoney commuting where its not needed unless I am compensated for it, and as happened with me (Either give me a rate increase or almost 100% WFH as the alternative) the company were quick to opt for the WFH unless its a face to face meeting or hands on with hardware. This will happen more and more, and new start companies will see corporate offices occupied Tuesday to Thursday as a waste of resources. and will probably go for much smaller metting room type facilities. Really if you take the big picture commuting for the sake of it rather than to a job which requires you to be hands on is wasteful of resources and long term will be consigned to the history books for a lot of people as technology creeps into more and more areas of daily life
 

Mikey C

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I can also see a slow erosion over time, people such as myself will not go back to spending time and mmoney commuting where its not needed unless I am compensated for it, and as happened with me (Either give me a rate increase or almost 100% WFH as the alternative) the company were quick to opt for the WFH unless its a face to face meeting or hands on with hardware. This will happen more and more, and new start companies will see corporate offices occupied Tuesday to Thursday as a waste of resources. and will probably go for much smaller metting room type facilities. Really if you take the big picture commuting for the sake of it rather than to a job which requires you to be hands on is wasteful of resources and long term will be consigned to the history books for a lot of people as technology creeps into more and more areas of daily life
At the moment with low unemployment, workers can call the shots. If things go downhill so that unemployment starts rising significantly, I can see that changing.

For example companies might question why they are paying "London office" workers more than ones in Newcastle, if they aren't actually commuting into London anyway.
 

mike57

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At the moment with low unemployment, workers can call the shots. If things go downhill so that unemployment starts rising significantly, I can see that changing.

For example companies might question why they are paying "London office" workers more than ones in Newcastle, if they aren't actually commuting into London anyway.
I suspect there will be some long term changes in the way things work. Given the current status quo people will gravitate towards the lower cost areas of the country if there is nothing to keep them in the high cost areas like family etc. It may not be a rush, but it will be a trickle. There has been a history of population moves, the one we all learnt about in school was the Industrial Revolution so the history is there.

For those with in demand skills new opportunities will present themselves, for those without skills I suspect the outlook is a lot bleaker, one of the impacts of less commuting is a reduction in support jobs, office cleaners, snack shop workers, and no doubt a lot of others. However although part of the bigger picture its not directly related to the OP question.
 
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