Passenger numbers vs revenue

[Snow1964]

There are also new figures for London from the TfL finance report period 2 (TfL has 13 four week periods April-March)

Rail (overground and TfL Rail) is back to 80% of pre-covid usage

The Underground now sees peak travel at 46% having fallen from 52% of journeys at peak times pre-covid

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/b2598/Supplementary%20Agenda%20Wednesday%2022-Jun-2022%2010.00%20Finance%20Committee.pdf?T=9

 

[yorksrob]

Not disagreeing, it doesn’t help when politics interferes, in various ways.

The current setup just isn’t serving the end-user well. We made a small journey yesterday using TfW. The outward journey went fine to be fair, but arriving at Swansea in the early evening, two consecutive services were cancelled (variously attributed to overcrowding and train faults), the third was 45 late and turned up wedged. So we ended up waiting for a Heart of Wales service which was 2x153. Two hours to do a journey of a few minutes. It was mildly amusing to get the “retro” experience of 153s, knowing that for all the spiel about the modern railway, it would have been the self-same stock on this journey nearly 30 years ago!

Indeed. I was on a wedged Coastway service today that should have been longer than four carriages. With the PEP units and the 455's going, it's hard to see how this is going to improve.

That said, the long Thameslinky trains were proving their worth at shifting the masses on the BML.

 

[30907]

Clearly since leisure traffic is recovering most at the moment, there should be a strong emphasis on maintaining the passenger network to its current extent.

Not sure that entirely follows, given the number of lines (and associated service levels) that were predominantly commuter - though if you mean rural railways should be retained, I agree.

It seems that long distance TOCs are the best recovered, followed by local TOCs. Why does regional travel lag behind both long-distance and local travel?

The operators that have taken the biggest hit are those with significant longer-distance commuting (ie the WFH demographic, mostly London-focussed) or predominantly business travel (Avanti noticeably).
Not sure what you mean by regional travel?

 

[miklcct]

Not sure what you mean by regional travel?

e.g. travel between cities and towns in a region, like most lines SWR / Southern / Southeastern / TransPennine Express / Scotrail serve.

In contrast, local travel is what Elizabeth line / London Overground / Merseyrail / Northern mainly serve, while long-distance travel is what LNER / Avanti / XC mainly serve. (XC is particularly bad because it has decimated its own network) GWR does both long-distance and regional travel.

 

[yorksrob]

Not sure that entirely follows, given the number of lines (and associated service levels) that were predominantly commuter - though if you mean rural railways should be retained, I agree.

The operators that have taken the biggest hit are those with significant longer-distance commuting (ie the WFH demographic, mostly London-focussed) or predominantly business travel (Avanti noticeably).
Not sure what you mean by regional travel?

Yes, well I do think that it is vital that what we traditionally think of as the regional railway shouldn't be cut back.

At the same time, if you take a South Eastern commuter route and take away the peak flows, your left with a beefed up regional type service anyway, so those types are still essential as well.

 

[AlastairFraser]

One can change that to many *people* don’t want to be working weekends for family reasons.

And this is the problem, even if it were practicable to replace 100% of railway staff overnight, I suspect there would still be problems with weekend rostering and coverage.

The way to provide weekend capacity is in many places to run longer trains, but where do these longer trains come from? In many cases it is using trains which were justified on the basis of peak times (commuter operators especially south-east), or they simply don’t exist (regional operators). It’s actually rather easier to strengthen or provide a few with-flow peak services than it is to cater for weekend traffic, which is heavily erratic due to factors like events, weather, Christmas shopping rush, etc etc. And then there’s the economic question of how viable this is when many people will be travelling on cheaper tickets - for example a typical family will be taking up four seats, yet two will be travelling on child tickets.

I agree with your general point re weekends, but the inclusion of weekends in new contracts is a sensible move that will solve the dispute to some extent over time. People adapt to new working patterns - we already have shown that over the last few years with 4 day weeks and working from home (these specific roles not applicable to most railway roles.)
As for economic viability of running better weekend services, the railway has to realise (and is starring to realise) that leisure traffic including weekends is going to be the core of their revenue in future, if it currently isn't economically viable to run an enhanced weekend service, it will have to be made to be.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Jun 2022 ==

We’ve done this to death on here. You cannot just change the roster. Why would you want to move them to afternoons & evenings? If I was on an early shift week it’s not going to happen.

Of course it's not going to happen immediately and i think that would be unfair on drivers to shove it through without consultation. But there is a current oversupply of drivers and services in the peaks relative to passenger load and an undersupply of drivers in the off peak and weekends, leading to significant levels of cancellations in a lot of TOCs. That's the railway pushing away a lot of leisure revenue that it needs to survive. That doesn't mean all drivers giving up their weekends or preferred arrangements permanently either. It means the railway sitting down with drivers and rearranging the rotas of those who would be willing to have a go at a different timetable.

 

[dk1]

Of course it's not going to happen immediately and i think that would be unfair on drivers to shove it through without consultation. But there is a current oversupply of drivers and services in the peaks relative to passenger load and an undersupply of drivers in the off peak and weekends, leading to significant levels of cancellations in a lot of TOCs. That's the railway pushing away a lot of leisure revenue that it needs to survive. That doesn't mean all drivers giving up their weekends or preferred arrangements permanently either. It means the railway sitting down with drivers and rearranging the rotas of those who would be willing to have a go at a different timetable.

Everything would go through local staffing reps who negotiate with management. There would be no loose group who do & those that don’t. That’s not how traincrew rostering works. As I say there may be some change but no agreements or weekends are going to be given up easily. Changes tend to take years to happen & base rosters are produced twice yearly at my depot. My particular rest day pattern hasn’t changed much in 14 years now.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Everything would go through local staffing reps who negotiate with management. There would be no loose group who do & those that don’t. That’s not how traincrew rostering works. As I say there may be some change but no agreements or weekends are going to be given up easily. Changes tend to take years to happen & base rosters are produced twice yearly at my depot. My particular rest day pattern hasn’t changed much in 14 years now.

I wasn't saying that drivers shouldn't have a stable contract either, I think the current system of setting rosters for long period works well, it's the same system I work under in a different industry. It's more about shifting the numbers of those on patterns including mostly peaks to partly off peak. It'll take years of course, but it's prudent to start negotiating and consulting honestly on this basis now or soon, because it will have to happen at some point and no one sane wants to impose it on the drivers without consultation or advance notice.

 

[dk1]

I wasn't saying that drivers shouldn't have a stable contract either, I think the current system of setting rosters for long period works well, it's the same system I work under in a different industry. It's more about shifting the numbers of those on patterns including mostly peaks to partly off peak. It'll take years of course, but it's prudent to start negotiating and consulting honestly on this basis now or soon, because it will have to happen at some point and no one sane wants to impose it on the drivers without consultation or advance notice.

I can never see anything being imposed on drivers without consultation. It just doesn’t happen regardless of Shapps or whatever his name is this month lol.

 

[AlastairFraser]

I can never see anything being imposed on drivers without consultation. It just doesn’t happen regardless of Shapps or whatever his name is this month lol.

Fully agree if the railway was run by people with principles, the DaFT however

 

[Class 170101]

The ORR report is entitled Q4 results but then goes on to review the previous 12mths. You have to go into the data tables to get an insight of what has happened in Q4 and in comparing it to Q4/19 reveals some interesting stats over ridership. So despite Omicron restrictions in January imploring working from home the ridership data amongst operators didn't change that much over Q3. LNER continue to be operator leader at 91% of Q4/19 with EMR following behind on 82% ScotRail remain bottom at 54% and it seems bizarre given there operation they remain so low.

But are Scotland and Wales at the same point in the covid recovery cycle as England? I think they are a bit further behind as restrictions came off later.

Personally i believe DfT was wrong to internalise all the franchises because of Covid they should have just provided temporary revenue support . The DfT aren't best placed to manage the consequences and now they are firefighting the deficit between operational costs and revenue income whereas the TOCs would have managed that dynamic better and for lower cost. Sadly this govt can never admit it might be wrong so my take is its going to take 3-4 years to get out the rut the industry is rapidly falling into. It won't stop the railway delivering day in day out (when its not on strike) just things certainly won't get better anytime soon.

I agree with this they aren't exactly covering themselves in glory, though I am far from convinced the model they are proposing with NR, read GBR, at its centre will work in the way the industy needs it too.

 

[DJ_K666]

I think lot of it is cost. I know diesel prices are going up astronomically, nog really the DaFT's fault but they're not exactly a big help in scything. However the cost vs driving plus the times don't exactly invite custom.
For example. I've just priced up a potential visit to Rails of Sheffield from here in Rugby.

In the interests of fairness I went for a weekday and got a shortest journey time of 1 hour 36 minutes with z change at Tamworth, which for a journey of that length is fairly respectable. It's comparable to driving, which can get me to Rails' shop front in 1h 22 minutes so pretty comparable.

The cost, however is double. It would cost me about £20 in diesel to drive but around £60 to go by train. As a result I'd drive. If I could find a ticket price that compared, even for £30 I'd definitely go by train, however with these prices it would seriously eat into my budget for buying stuff. Basically I'll use the Web to buy products and much as I'd love to go by train and visit the shop, for me the cost is prohibitive. People might say I could save some money with a railcard but that means dragging an unwilling partner and (probably slightly less unwilling) kid along. Hence I wouldn't actually save any money.

Really if the railway industry wants to get people back 'through the door' as it were they need to consider the fares and maybe restructure them

So time- wise it's comparable if I go in the week and don't mind a tram ride. No complaints there.

Costwise, I think I'll stick to the web until it gets cheaper to take the car. But I suppose that depends on the ongoing oil situation in Europe and inflation wages etc. Maybe we're all in the same boat there.

 

[thedbdiboy]

Personally i believe DfT was wrong to internalise all the franchises because of Covid they should have just provided temporary revenue support . The DfT aren't best placed to manage the consequences and now they are firefighting the deficit between operational costs and revenue income whereas the TOCs would have managed that dynamic better and for lower cost. Sadly this govt can never admit it might be wrong so my take is its going to take 3-4 years to get out the rut the industry is rapidly falling into. It won't stop the railway delivering day in day out (when its not on strike) just things certainly won't get better anytime soon.

The problem is the revenue part of a franchise agreement isn't capable of coping with the loss of income from Covid - they would all have needed support all the way through to contract end. So the whole model blew up in their faces.

Really if the railway industry wants to get people back 'through the door' as it were they need to consider the fares and maybe restructure them

So time- wise it's comparable if I go in the week and don't mind a tram ride. No complaints there.

Costwise, I think I'll stick to the web until it gets cheaper to take the car. But I suppose that depends on the ongoing oil situation in Europe and inflation wages etc. Maybe we're all in the same boat there.

Someone had better tell the Treasury, which is micromanaging any efforts to restructure fares to attract back traffic. The ultimate nationalisation...

 

[Trainbike46]

Someone had better tell the Treasury, which is micromanaging any efforts to restructure fares to attract back traffic. The ultimate nationalisation...

For some reason I don't think it's likely the treasury would listen to anyone, specifically not people working in the railway, unless they were saying what they wanted to hear anyway, unfortunately

 

[DJ_K666]

I definitely think trying to change the treasury must be like trying to do a handbrake turn in an oil tanker

 

[patrick.hearn3]

The cost, however is double. It would cost me about £20 in diesel to drive but around £60 to go by train.

An old saw I know, but you're not including all cost (says someone who has in the last month had a tyre repair, seized brake calipers, insurance renewal and the road fund licence renewal, around £715 on a fully depreciated vehicle)

 

[Mikey C]

An old saw I know, but you're not including all cost (says someone who has in the last month had a tyre repair, seized brake calipers, insurance renewal and the road fund licence renewal, around £715 on a fully depreciated vehicle)

The marginal of running a car is much less. When something goes wrong, that will lead to a big bill, but it’s not something which will influence someone’s decision to make a particular journey by car or not at the time...

 

[DJ_K666]

That 715 is a big hit I'll grant you. Must have been in quite a state. I paid £3200 for mine and I fully expect it to pass the next MoT. Its fully serviced so any big breakdown would be unforseen. I'd like to think that as a professional driver a crash is less likely but you never know.

Incidentally I priced up a trip to Chester to see Pete Waterman's new Making Tracks 2 layout in July or August and that came up as £18 - £20 by train. That means I'll be going there that way. Depending on my shifts of course. Ill have to work out when i can go. There really is no consistency at all.

 

[matacaster]

Indeed, it's a major cultural shift that will have massive long term implications for the rail industry. Especially for longer distance "professional" commuters, far more likely to be doing the sorts of jobs which aren't ones where you have to be at your desk by 9am. Why spend £4000 on a season ticket, when you can come in 3 days a week, and not even need to be there by 9am.


But longer term, the hours will have to change to reflect travel patterns. It's unsustainable having vast numbers of rail workers all employed to serve the morning rush hour, if far fewer passengers are now travelling then (especially on Monday and Friday). Similarly, the poorer Sunday service (late starts, reduced frequency, engineering works) makes little sense if that's when leisure passengers want to travel.

Quite. This is an example of the 'we agreed to this x years ago and it must never change' attitude which MUST change.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jun 2022 ==

In addition to proper staffing for the weekend, it's about time that train maintenance and rostering was reorganised so that sufficient trains with sufficient carriages are supplied to services on Sundays.

 

[WiredUp]

Quite. This is an example of the 'we agreed to this x years ago and it must never change' attitude which MUST change.

Yes - I would throw anytime tickets into the debate here and say that really these need to either be scrapped altogether or (more realistically) the hours of exclusive validity i.e. the morning/evening peaks (and the shoulders of these as a consequence) pruned back heavily.

The traditional dependence of the industry on commuters as cash cow has come to an end with WFH. An all out offensive to heavily market and capture the leisure and business travel really has to be implemented by the DfT and the Rail Delivery Group. HS2 will provide the capability to capture more LDHS intercity travel in the future, but the industry needs it much sooner.

Perhaps some form of dynamic ticket pricing for different times/days of the week can be accommodated using contactless ticketing - copying from advanced tickets and implementing this on what would traditionally have just been peak/off peak tickets?

 

[matt_world2004]

There are also new figures for London from the TfL finance report period 2 (TfL has 13 four week periods April-March)

Rail (overground and TfL Rail) is back to 80% of pre-covid usage

The Underground now sees peak travel at 46% having fallen from 52% of journeys at peak times pre-covid

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/b2598/Supplementary%20Agenda%20Wednesday%2022-Jun-2022%2010.00%20Finance%20Committee.pdf?T=9

Tfl Rail has probably had an higher recovery in passengers due to the introduction of ticket gates at most stations in the East a d west

 

[trainstrainstr]

Perhaps some form of dynamic ticket pricing for different times/days of the week can be accommodated using contactless ticketing - copying from advanced tickets and implementing this on what would traditionally have just been peak/off peak tickets?

There are plans at one TOC to do this, they hope to get the DfT to agree to it and lead the charge so to speak.

 

[Hadders]

There are plans at one TOC to do this, they hope to get the DfT to agree to it and lead the charge so to speak.

Sounds interesting. But...

How much will fares increase by at popular off-peak times, like weekends? If fares regulation is abolished as part of this then there will be a very painful sting in the tail.

 

[patrick.hearn3]

That 715 is a big hit I'll grant you. Must have been in quite a state.

Not that bad, the tax and insurance ate up 400 of it. It's 13 years old now and it owes me nothing, but it's starting to cost in repairs and maintenance, I'm sanguine about it, the repair bill for the failed (original) brake calipers is about the same as a month of our daughter's PCP payments on her Gulf.

The marginal of running a car is much less. When something goes wrong, that will lead to a big bill, but it’s not something which will influence someone’s decision to make a particular journey by car or not at the time...

Accepted.

 

[zoneking]

Here's a controversial thought: why don't they make season tickets cheaper? It might just propel some uncertains into taking the plunge so revenue increases. I purchase an annual season, but have had to amend my choice of ticket because it has become too expensive. (I no longer have zones 1-6 covered, just zones 4-6, on the rare occasions venture into z1 I will have to buy an extra ticket).

 

[Rich McLean]

Sounds interesting. But...

How much will fares increase by at popular off-peak times, like weekends? If fares regulation is abolished as part of this then there will be a very painful sting in the tail.

Sunday afternoons on long distance would be akin to Peak Time fares. So instead of a crush loaded train just about breaking even or taking a slight profit, a fully seated train with a few standees would take a lot more in revenue. Those who were going to travel are either priced off, or travel at quieter times, filling up those services. Weekends being fully off peak will soon become a thing of the past.

There is no easy solution.

 

[TheSeeker]

why don't they make season tickets cheaper?

In the old place I used to work we got the option of access to a parking space in the building or an annual season ticket paid by the company. In Belgium it's possible for an employer to offer this pre-tax. I don't like driving into a busy city so always took the season ticket.

 

[winks]

Who wants to pay £5k to commute into London ? This revenue side of things will never recover, now employees can work over Zoom.

Lower season ticket prices to lure people back ! The only way….

 

[Hadders]

Sunday afternoons on long distance would be akin to Peak Time fares. So instead of a crush loaded train just about breaking even or taking a slight profit, a fully seated train with a few standees would take a lot more in revenue. Those who were going to travel are either priced off, or travel at quieter times, filling up those services. Weekends being fully off peak will soon become a thing of the past.

There is no easy solution.

The train companies absolutely want this to happen. At the moment the cannot do this because of fares regulation, which they want to abolish.

There is no perfect solution but what we have at the moment is much better than pricing people off at weekends.

 

[mrmartin]

I probably spend £400-500/month on train travel, mostly intercity, 50:50 mix of business meetings and leisure. There is absolutely no way I would continue to use the rail network to that degree if the current (super)offpeak trains were reclassified as anytime. I don't bother with advance fares as I like the flexibility of being able to travel when I want. Some of the fares are absolutely eye watering IMO - eg Carlisle Cardiff £173 off peak return. If that went up to a £279 anytime fare in nearly all cases would be cheaper to rent a rental car and drive it.