Passenger Numbers, Autumn 2022

[Peter Sarf]

I think the aim shouldn't be to get the former railway commuters who now work from home back, but instead try to attract people who previously used to drive or fly. That way we could get revenue up, hopefully spread more equally through the day, so there's less need for peak extras.

I agree some that fly or drive might now find rail commuting more attractive. But add to that off peak leisure travel.

Maybe the fares structure needs to change ?.

I loathe commuting and the current issues extending it by 30 minutes each way certainly aren't helping!
I've no idea why Great Northern are running a xx09 Cambridge to King's Cross instead of xx45 to coincide with the arrival of the xx44 (depart) Kings Lynn.
There's a distinct air of resignation, bewilderment and malaise among my fellow commuters waiting at platform in the early hours.
If I had a choice then I wouldn't be doing it. I've had plenty of time recently to contemplate alternatives and finances around it.

That is the trouble. Not only have people woken up to the possibilities of not going through the daily ordeal of commuting BUT also the commuting "service" has become less attractive.

I think it is time to change the rail service by timetabling a more reliable service with better connections or fewer needs for connections. This can be achieved by running fewer trains as there is less demand to justify them. This then leaves the capacity to make more intricate workings and/or build in resilience.

Gone are the days when demand was such that the railways ran as many services as possible with less regard to resilience than for capacity. If the railways are to continue getting subsidised then they must hang on to the passengers they still have by being better. I would throw in being more efficient as well. The railways can then try to build on that customer base with the simpler more reliable services. We got to where we were pre Covid by demand exceeding the need for quality. Whether we ever get back to the levels we had before is a good question. I doubt it but maybe as new generations come along who have not already experienced the grind of commuting there may be a return to commuting of yore.

We need the railways but really no one wants to need the railways as much as before.

 

[BrianW]

I agree some that fly or drive might now find rail commuting more attractive. But add to that off peak leisure travel.

Maybe the fares structure needs to change ?.

That is the trouble. Not only have people woken up to the possibilities of not going through the daily ordeal of commuting BUT also the commuting "service" has become less attractive.

I think it is time to change the rail service by timetabling a more reliable service with better connections or fewer needs for connections. This can be achieved by running fewer trains as there is less demand to justify them. This then leaves the capacity to make more intricate workings and/or build in resilience.

Gone are the days when demand was such that the railways ran as many services as possible with less regard to resilience than for capacity. If the railways are to continue getting subsidised then they must hang on to the passengers they still have by being better. I would throw in being more efficient as well. The railways can then try to build on that customer base with the simpler more reliable services. We got to where we were pre Covid by demand exceeding the need for quality. Whether we ever get back to the levels we had before is a good question. I doubt it but maybe as new generations come along who have not already experienced the grind of commuting there may be a return to commuting of yore.

We need the railways but really no one wants to need the railways as much as before.

Question- which must surely be posed (and answered?) at DfT, by the PM of the day, at meetings across the various rail 'HQs', the unions, commuters and others:

What will make for the optimum use of the existing railway? A number of 'assumptions' of 'what if's' will ned to be considered and weighed up.

For instance I would assume that a % of previous commuters will not return, having found better work-life balance (WLB); many will be able to travel less often; some will be able to travel at a 'quieter' time. What would the 'result' be of running eg 12-car trains at 4tph generally (or frequent 8-car all day like 'Tube' service?) . Surplus (old?) stock; staff ... Resilience?

Open goal for a government bent on savings 'efficiencies'; own goal for those pushing for 'back to pre-Covid'; change resistance;'Spanish practices', ...

Reminder- a previous government contemplated massive retrenchment of the railways under the exemplar of 'Thatcherite' economics (the Serpell Report). For Ernie Marples and M1 read Anne-Marie Trevellyan and a getting of 'kicks' on the A66.

 

[Magdalen Road]

I agree some that fly or drive might now find rail commuting more attractive. But add to that off peak leisure travel.

Maybe the fares structure needs to change ?.

That is the trouble. Not only have people woken up to the possibilities of not going through the daily ordeal of commuting BUT also the commuting "service" has become less attractive.

I think it is time to change the rail service by timetabling a more reliable service with better connections or fewer needs for connections. This can be achieved by running fewer trains as there is less demand to justify them. This then leaves the capacity to make more intricate workings and/or build in resilience.

Gone are the days when demand was such that the railways ran as many services as possible with less regard to resilience than for capacity. If the railways are to continue getting subsidised then they must hang on to the passengers they still have by being better. I would throw in being more efficient as well. The railways can then try to build on that customer base with the simpler more reliable services. We got to where we were pre Covid by demand exceeding the need for quality. Whether we ever get back to the levels we had before is a good question. I doubt it but maybe as new generations come along who have not already experienced the grind of commuting there may be a return to commuting of yore.

We need the railways but really no one wants to need the railways as much as before.

Prior to having to take the current job, I'd always deliberately lived within 30 mins drive (walk in a previous post) which was also cycleable. I really hate car commuting though, so I'd rather take the train. However I wasn't counting on the "service" getting worse and more expensive.

 

[E27007]

Question I have is. What is the alternative (UK) legislation on the subject ?.

I mean perhaps this EU legislation fills a vacuum so although it looks as though its a bit anti holiday it would be better than an employer thinking they could give no notice.

Anyway, in my case, if my employer insisted on me cancelling my three week trip that had been planned almost a year ahead, I would apologise politely and still go on holiday. Then maybe start looking into a new job when I got back.

I do not think there is any specific UK legislation for an employer to cancel an employees leave, it was a EU Commission initiative, (the EU Commission.... so accountable and so democratic) I am aware of Employment Contracts with "Needs of the Business" clauses, where , the clause applies only to requests to take leave, but never the right to cancel approved leave.
I think the target of the Commission was for Agricultural Workers, if the harvest changed for early or late cropping, the Farmer could dictate his demands over their poor suffering employees.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I do not think there is any specific UK legislation for an employer to cancel an employees leave, it was a EU Commission initiative, (the EU Commission.... so accountable and so democratic) I am aware of Employment Contracts with "Needs of the Business" clauses, where , the clause applies only to requests to take leave, but never the right to cancel approved leave.
I think the target of the Commission was for Agricultural Workers, if the harvest changed for early or late cropping, the Farmer could dictate his demands over their poor suffering employees.

If there was no legislation before then it follows a farmer or any other employer could demand an employee cancel their leave at any time without giving any notice. So the EU legislation was more likely an attempt to force the Farmer to give notice.

The creation of a rule does not mean anything sinister UNLESS it replaces a previous rule.

 

[Bald Rick]

What will make for the optimum use of the existing railway? A number of 'assumptions' of 'what if's' will ned to be considered and weighed up.

This is the crux of the matter: definitions of ”optimum” vary considerably.…

1) optimum financially?
2) optimum socially?
3) optimum politically?
4) optimum for the workforce?

 

[stuu]

If there was no legislation before then it follows a farmer or any other employer could demand an employee cancel their leave at any time without giving any notice. So the EU legislation was more likely an attempt to force the Farmer to give notice.

The creation of a rule does not mean anything sinister UNLESS it replaces a previous rule.

Exactly. The previous poster should bear in mind that the Labour government was not keen on the Working Time Directive, and wanted it watered down. EU rules around working have consistently provided better conditions than the pre-existing UK rules.

 

[Trainbike46]

This is the crux of the matter: definitions of ”optimum” vary considerably.…

1) optimum financially?
2) optimum socially?
3) optimum politically?
4) optimum for the workforce?

5) optimum to maximise passenger numbers?
6) optimum to reduce carbon emissions of UK transport?
7) optimum to make existing passengers happy?

so many options....

 

[Bald Rick]

5) optimum to maximise passenger numbers?
6) optimum to reduce carbon emissions of UK transport?
7) optimum to make existing passengers happy?

so many options....

That’s all in ‘socially’

 

[Trainbike46]

That’s all in ‘socially’

Fair enough, I interpreted "socially" to mean to optimum to provide an option of transport for those who don't have alternatives, so quite a lot narrower than you! Like how a bus service can stop pensioners from being locked up in their homes.

 

[railfan99]

Just did a count on the Monday 2 Oct 0940 hours Avanti West Coast Glasgow Central to London.

North of Oxenholme, there were 26 in First, 5 in STD Premium and 246 in economy (Std).

After Oxenholme there was a net 14 mire in Std Premium plus an estimated 25 plus more in Std.

At Lancaster another 25 plus have joined, so my estimate is at least 335 on the train. Delayed due to a female passenger refusing to detrain, presumably ticketless travel. Station staff member came on board to car K looking for her. We are departing at 1149 and 23 seconds, so now late.

As a foreigner I find the patronage impressive. Scottish staff pleasant. Great fruit salad.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2022 ==

Thats the view of most of us on here but not the DfT or specifically the Treasury is the problem although they seem more tolerable than i expected. That said the fiscal mess Kwarteng has created means politically he won't want to row back on the tax giveaway so risk is pressure is bought to bare at the margins on public spending like transport etc lets hope not.

But didn't he just rescind the tax rate cut for the highest income earners?

 

[Bald Rick]

But didn't he just rescind the tax rate cut for the highest income earners?

One of them, that represents about 4% of the total tax cuts. The overall problem still remains - there’s a big hole in public finances and there will be big spending cuts to ‘fill’ it.

 

[Smidster]

One of them, that represents about 4% of the total tax cuts. The overall problem still remains - there’s a big hole in public finances and there will be big spending cuts to ‘fill’ it.

This is the key point from the last few days - the top rate of tax is a rounding error when it comes to the public finances (the cost estimate was 2bn which implies c40bn of earnings taxed at additional rate) . The policy to abolish was idiotic but that doesn't mean things and now sunshine and lollipops.

The only option really right now is big spending cuts and they are going to be painful - there is very little fat to trim.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

One of them, that represents about 4% of the total tax cuts. The overall problem still remains - there’s a big hole in public finances and there will be big spending cuts to ‘fill’ it.

Kwarteng has said departmental budgets wont be reduced in 22/23 but they wont get any compensation for inflationary impacts and they will have to absorb them by adjusting spending. defacto a spending cut although given rail haven't yet settled over pay rises they will have spent a big part of the budget already and be difficult to instigate any short term savings. I suspect much of this is to just placate markets they are keeping control of spending and we won't see any significant impact in rail.

 

[yorksrob]

This is the key point from the last few days - the top rate of tax is a rounding error when it comes to the public finances (the cost estimate was 2bn which implies c40bn of earnings taxed at additional rate) . The policy to abolish was idiotic but that doesn't mean things and now sunshine and lollipops.

The only option really right now is big spending cuts and they are going to be painful - there is very little fat to trim.

I good proportion of the other tax cuts also need to be reversed - or certainly better targeted.

 

[JamesT]

I good proportion of the other tax cuts also need to be reversed - or certainly better targeted.

Unlikely to happen, I think the opposition supported most of them so there’s less chance of it being voted down.

 

[Bikeman78]

I did the 315s up from Brentwood this morning. I've not done them for a few months. Thought they were busy last time but worse this time. Few seats left at Gidea Park, full and standing from Romford, game over from Goodmayes for anyone wanting to get on. It may as well have run non stop from Ilford to Stratford. Back to pre Covid levels of crowding. If the Southern metro area is similar then it will be painful, given the cutbacks.

 

[Horizon22]

Kwarteng has said departmental budgets wont be reduced in 22/23 but they wont get any compensation for inflationary impacts and they will have to absorb them by adjusting spending. defacto a spending cut although given rail haven't yet settled over pay rises they will have spent a big part of the budget already and be difficult to instigate any short term savings. I suspect much of this is to just placate markets they are keeping control of spending and we won't see any significant impact in rail.

That is in effect a cut though.

 

[dk1]

I did the 315s up from Brentwood this morning. I've not done them for a few months. Thought they were busy last time but worse this time. Few seats left at Gidea Park, full and standing from Romford, game over from Goodmayes for anyone wanting to get on. It may as well have run non stop from Ilford to Stratford. Back to pre Covid levels of crowding. If the Southern metro area is similar then it will be painful, given the cutbacks.

I seem to remember that that route was one where TfL said passengers loadings during the pandemic where returning quicker than others.

 

[Horizon22]

I seem to remember that that route was one where TfL said passengers loadings during the pandemic where returning quicker than others.

East London has had one of the most robust passengers demand percentages in the whole country; cheaper housing comparatively and lots of people in employment that cannot work from home. Outer urban areas have been some of the most robust as well generally across the country, so this is of no surprise. There some well publicised scenes of the Jubilee line overcrowding around Stratford and Canning Town in the middle of peak pandemic.

I think also people have somewhat forgotten what "busy" is!

 

[dk1]

East London has been one of the most robust passengers number in the whole country; cheaper housing comparatively and lots of people in employment that cannot work from home. Outer urban areas have been some of the most robust as well generally, so this is of no surprise. There some well publicised scenes of the Jubilee line overcrowding around Stratford and Canning Town in the middle of peak pandemic.

Passing the Shenfield-Liverpool St services & seeing the numbers growing week after week was good to see during 2020/21. It seems as busy as ever again now & that’s before trains start diving at Pudding Mill Lane. Stratford as ever has been a huge revenue generator.

 

[Horizon22]

Passing the Shenfield-Liverpool St services & seeing the numbers growing week after week was good to see during 2020/21. It seems as busy as ever again now & that’s before trains start diving at Pudding Mill Lane. Stratford as ever has been a huge revenue generator.

Stratford of course topped the passenger numbers for 2020-2021 nationally for entries and exits and suffered a (relatively!) small % decrease in passenger numbers.

 

[dk1]

Stratford of course topped the passenger numbers for 2020-2021 nationally for entries and exits and suffered a (relatively!) small % decrease in passenger numbers.

Soon as Westfield reopened they flocked back particularly at weekends. Once the rest of the leisure industry & sport allowed crowds in again it was business as usual. Attractions like the ABBA arena have boosted things further. What a fabulously connected station this is now.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Soon as Westfield reopened they flocked back particularly at weekends. Once the rest of the leisure industry & sport allowed crowds in again it was business as usual. Attractions like the ABBA arena have boosted things further. What a fabulously connected station this is now.

Its a showcase for connectivity in the UK and it drives passenger numbers with often more boarding the outer suburban services at Stratford than have boarded at Liverpool St. This needs to be replicated across the UK as a policy to underpin modal shift and whilst it may take many iterations of the timetable to achieve that should be the goal.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Its a showcase for connectivity in the UK and it drives passenger numbers with often more boarding the outer suburban services at Stratford than have boarded at Liverpool St. This needs to be replicated across the UK as a policy to underpin modal shift and whilst it may take many iterations of the timetable to achieve that should be the goal.

This is what Croydon needs. Instead it has a shopping centre suffering planning blight.

 

[Bikeman78]

I think also people have somewhat forgotten what "busy" is!

I'm probably guilty of that to an extent. Though it's odd that the DfT is insisting on cutbacks as numbers continue to climb. There's no logic to it. Binning the Euston 319s would be an easy win, for example. I've had a bay of seats to myself on the 16:24. I'm sure some juggling of 350s could cover those three pairs.

 

[yorksrob]

Its a showcase for connectivity in the UK and it drives passenger numbers with often more boarding the outer suburban services at Stratford than have boarded at Liverpool St. This needs to be replicated across the UK as a policy to underpin modal shift and whilst it may take many iterations of the timetable to achieve that should be the goal.

I've seen more people catch Kent Coast trains at London Bridge than Charing Cross on occasions.

 

[Bald Rick]

Though it's odd that the DfT is insisting on cutbacks as numbers continue to climb.

But numbers are not continuing to climb, in comparison to how matters were three years ago. Yes they are climbing in comparison to last month, but they always do at this time of year. Compared to 3 years ago, the trend has been flat (or nearly so) for a while.

 

[yorksrob]

But numbers are not continuing to climb, in comparison to how matters were three years ago. Yes they are climbing in comparison to last month, but they always do at this time of year. Compared to 3 years ago, the trend has been flat (or nearly so) for a while.

But passenger numbers three years ago were unusually high by historical standards.

 

[lammergeier]

But numbers are not continuing to climb, in comparison to how matters were three years ago. Yes they are climbing in comparison to last month, but they always do at this time of year. Compared to 3 years ago, the trend has been flat (or nearly so) for a while.

But they won't climb much further with a reduced service and connections removed/unreasonably extended and less advance fares available. It's all a bit chicken and egg really - the railway it seems is almost expected to increase passenger usage towards 2019 levels without the resources required to do so, and if we don't increase numbers then we have to cut further.