Passenger numbers after the holiday period

[jon0844]

It has been happening since before April, with many businesses (you can see their statements online both here and abroad as they communicate to staff) suggesting a return to the office by default, with people free (currently) to still ask to work from home on occasion for various reasons, such as when there's disruption (not just strikes) or for childcare reasons (sick child, inset days).

I think that many people are also bored for working from home. They miss the social contact and even the commute! Commuting time is 'me time'.

I am fully supportive of WFH but know from previous experience you can get bored of it and lose touch with colleagues and feel left out, or even lose a connection with your company/employer. Perhaps some people are finding it harder to motivate themselves at home, and maybe in some cases productivity has fallen.

A flexible approach makes perfect sense, but for many businesses that has become 3 days a week with people opting towards working Tuesday to Thursday in the office, but that then means any offices that have downsized are likely full those three days and empty Monday and Friday. You can then create rosters, but that then means someone might want/need to work from home and is now down to be in the office that day.

Some employers/managers are going to be better than others, and there's still likely to be lots of changes - but there are clearly more and more people returning to work every month and unless there's another pandemic, I can't see it reversing.

 

[Goldfish62]

The DfT has updated the usage spreadsheet since start of pandemic, rail data is column G compared to 2019

12-24 Aug between 96-99%
25 Aug (Fri before bank hol) 102%
26 Aug 97%
27 Aug 97%
28 Aug (Bank hol) 101%
29 Aug 100%
30 Aug 94%
31 Aug 96%
1 -3 Sept all 89% (strike weekend)

So looks like holiday usage is back to normal, too early for figures for Sept

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

Column H is the relevant one for comparison with pre-Covid, not column G, because it strips out the Elizabeth line. 85% for the August Bank Holiday.

 

[yorksrob]

My commute (when it turns up) seems to have picked up noticeably over the past week.

 

[Snow1964]

It seems that more and more businesses are getting people back in to the office 3 or 4 days a week, perhaps even every day with days at home now being something you'd ask for occasionally and not the norm, so I wonder if monthly and annual season ticket sales are rising again as people are at the level where they're the best value again?

Couple of people I know have said similar, the companies realise training, mentoring, professional development, succession planning and handovers for holiday cover etc falls apart over time, so now expecting people back min 3 or 4 days.

Not universal, but ought to be making trains busier.

In my view Government made big mistake when it gave all civil servants a pay rise, they should have limited it to those going into office.

 

[bramling]

Couple of people I know have said similar, the companies realise training, mentoring, professional development, succession planning and handovers for holiday cover etc falls apart over time, so now expecting people back min 3 or 4 days.

Not universal, but ought to be making trains busier.

In my view Government made big mistake when it gave all civil servants a pay rise, they should have limited it to those going into office.

Anyone could have said this was going to happen. There’s always been an element who are extremely defensive of WFH, but they’re bound to be because of their own very vested interests.

I see it at my place, every time there’s a push to try and get people back to the office, even to a partial extent, the discussion feeds go absolutely viral. I’ve yet to read anything which doesn’t ultimately boil down to “I can’t be bothered to get up in the morning and travel in 5 days a week like I originally signed up for”.

 

[Goldfish62]

Anyone could have said this was going to happen. There’s always been an element who are extremely defensive of WFH, but they’re bound to be because of their own very vested interests.

I see it at my place, every time there’s a push to try and get people back to the office, even to a partial extent, the discussion feeds go absolutely viral. I’ve yet to read anything which doesn’t ultimately boil down to “I can’t be bothered to get up in the morning and travel in 5 days a week like I originally signed up for”.

Perhaps they should have their contracts of employment, particularly the "normal place of work" section, shoved under their noses as a reminder.

 

[Taplowgreen]

Couple of people I know have said similar, the companies realise training, mentoring, professional development, succession planning and handovers for holiday cover etc falls apart over time, so now expecting people back min 3 or 4 days.

Not universal, but ought to be making trains busier.

In my view Government made big mistake when it gave all civil servants a pay rise, they should have limited it to those going into office.

I'm not sure about limiting an annual pay rise to those going into offices however there's certainly an argument for those civil servants (and other public sector employees) who get London weighting based on working in London but now work from home should lose it.

 

[Xavi]

From my experience yesterday, long-distance peak services into London (after the holiday period) were far busier than at any time since the pandemic. Central London on the Liz Line and around the business district of Fitzrovia too. The 3 / 4 days in the office demanded by many companies (as mentioned above) is commonplace, and my local office was notably busy on a Friday last week.

 

[Sussex Ben]

The Brighton Main Line seems to have picked up again this week, with a notable increase in standing as far out as Haywards Heath on peak Thameslink services.

Hopefully this will lead to the reinstatement of some more of the London Bridge peak services from the coast, however I don’t hold my breath as I assume that would mean govt putting their hands in their pockets to allow GTR to lease some more rolling stock…

 

[PGAT]

I've only been on the London Bridge - Littlehampton train once, but from my observations it's much less loaded than the other trains on the BML

 

[Sussex Ben]

I've only been on the London Bridge - Littlehampton train once, but from my observations it's much less loaded than the other trains on the BML

It’s felt busier when I’ve used it this week, but it is still quiet compared to the Thameslink services - which are now busy to the point that more probably need relieving.

Of course, the London Bridge to Littlehampton service doesn’t help itself with its odd calling pattern, as a couple of extra stops would go even further to helping relieve the very busy 17:35 Brighton service.

 

[PGAT]

Of course, the London Bridge to Littlehampton service doesn’t help itself with its odd calling pattern, as a couple of extra stops would go even further to helping relieve the very busy 17:35 Brighton service.

Agreed, it's completely bizarre that Gatwick Airport is omitted but tiny Wivelsfield and Preston Park are kept

 

[The exile]

Much of Europe seems to be coping with changing travel patterns. Why are the UK government making such a song & dance about it?

How many European countries had such volumes of long / medium distance commuters pre-COVID?

 

[dk1]

How many European countries had such volumes of long / medium distance commuters pre-COVID?

Not a clue.

 

[Sussex Ben]

Agreed, it's completely bizarre that Gatwick Airport is omitted but tiny Wivelsfield and Preston Park are kept

I don’t think Gatwick can be easily accommodated without impacting the performance of subsequent services. Certainly Three Bridges and Burgess Hill should be looked at in favour of Wivelsfield and Preston Park though

 

[Krokodil]

I'm not sure about limiting an annual pay rise to those going into offices however there's certainly an argument for those civil servants (and other public sector employees) who get London weighting based on working in London but now work from home should lose it.

Or making it paid per day, if you want to come into the office on two days per week then you'll get the allowance paid for those days.

 

[PGAT]

I don’t think Gatwick can be easily accommodated without impacting the performance of subsequent services. Certainly Three Bridges and Burgess Hill should be looked at in favour of Wivelsfield and Preston Park though

It seemed to cope before the May timetable change

 

[Sussex Ben]

It seemed to cope before the May timetable change

When it ran at all given Thameslink’s inability to resource it most days…

I regularly commuted on the 17:33 from London Bridge when it was an Eastbourne service and performance was nothing short of disgraceful. I think of the times I used it, it only arrived at Wivelsfield on time 12% of the time.

Having plat 6 at Gatwick reinstated has no doubt helped, but it still gets very congested through there.

 

[30907]

(The exile said How many European countries had such volumes of long / medium distance commuters pre-COVID?

Not many in our sense (daily travel) - Ile-de-France regional services extend a fair way out of Paris, but as a proportion of commuters I would guess it is fairly small.

Germany has a growing number of IC commuters (and even a specific train or two IIRC into Frankfurt), but far more common I suspect is weekly commuting - typically from the old DDR to cities like Frankfurt. (That might be mixed with students going home for the weekend, of course.)

(Weekly commuting is not unknown in the UK - certainly from the NE.)

 

[Swanley 59]

I think that many people are also bored for working from home. They miss the social contact and even the commute! Commuting time is 'me time'.

That's exactly how I feel about it. I sometimes go in more than the expected three days simply because I get two hours to myself - often longer thanks to Northern Trains - where I can read and listen to music in a way that is impossible when I'm WFH. I used to like WFH when it was a rare privilege in pre-COVID days, but now I actually detest it.

 

[jkkne]

The WFH views on this forum make me laugh, it’s always like a Daily Mail comment section and so out of touch.

WFH is here to stay in its new guise as flexible or hybrid working as many now call it. Most are doing 1-2 days in the office, if you want to be in full time, then you can, the majority are not aside a few headline grabbing sensationalist pieces in the tabloids.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

Column H is the relevant one for comparison with pre-Covid, not column G, because it strips out the Elizabeth line. 85% for the August Bank Holiday.

As the Elizabeth line would’ve opened with or without pandemic, I’m not sure how relevant that is.

 

[lordbusiness]

I travelled Norwich to Chelmsford yesterday on the 0803 (first off peak) and it was rammed from Colchester in standard, lots trying to get on at Chelmsford- although a helpful PA reminder that there was another service 2 minutes behind kept quite a few back.

First class noticably quieter than pre-covid although probably due to the lack of consistent FC on GA (or people feeling the sqeeze).

Also did 0920 Cambridge to Broxbourne (single 720) on Tuesday and was really surprised how busy it was.

 

[dk1]

I travelled Norwich to Chelmsford yesterday on the 0803 (first off peak) and it was rammed from Colchester in standard, lots trying to get on at Chelmsford- although a helpful PA reminder that there was another service 2 minutes behind kept quite a few back.

First class noticably quieter than pre-covid although probably due to the lack of consistent FC on GA (or people feeling the sqeeze).

Also did 0920 Cambridge to Broxbourne (single 720) on Tuesday and was really surprised how busy it was.

The 08:03 Norwich-Liverpool St has only recently regained 1st class. For the last 18 months it’s been diagrammed for a 745/1.

 

[Xavi]

The WFH views on this forum make me laugh

If you say so. I agree that hybrid working is here to stay, however, there is a shift over the last year where many companies will not accept 100% remote working.

 

[JamesT]

As the Elizabeth line would’ve opened with or without pandemic, I’m not sure how relevant that is.

It’s a matter of comparing like with like. At least some Elizabeth Line journeys are those which would have been on London Underground, which are counted separately. So an apparent increase in traffic is merely a shift from one mode to another. Stripping EL out allows a direct comparison of the traffic on the same set of lines to the previous dataset.
The other way to do it would be to include all the TfL traffic in both before and after. Though as they’re run differently that may not be particularly enlightening.

 

[Goldfish62]

As the Elizabeth line would’ve opened with or without pandemic, I’m not sure how relevant that is.

Basic data analysis. It's critically relevant. If you're going to compare passenger numbers with pre-Covid to ascertain how much they've recovered you need to adjust them to show what the passenger numbers would be like now had the Elizabeth line not opened.

Any other comparison on a national level is meaningless.

Remember also that the bulk of revenue from the Elizabeth line goes to TfL.

However people like to present it and cite instances of individual trains being packed, passenger numbers appear to have flatlined this year in the low 80s%. This is roughly in line with local bus and TfL modes.

Fewer journeys are being undertaken on public transport than pre-pandemic, end of. Meanwhile our roads are getting more and more choked with cars despite the fantasy "war on motorists".

 

[Markdvdman]

Well the Merthyr line has noticeable picked up on the morning and evening peaks. I would say so definitely on Cardiff to West Wales too. I worked from home during the first lockdown for 13 weeks and hated it. I commute every day now. Much prefer getting out of the house to work - breaks that link - home is *supposed* to be leisure time!

 

[Taplowgreen]

Basic data analysis. It's critically relevant. If you're going to compare passenger numbers with pre-Covid to ascertain how much they've recovered you need to adjust them to show what the passenger numbers would be like now had the Elizabeth line not opened.

Any other comparison on a national level is meaningless.

Remember also that the bulk of revenue from the Elizabeth line goes to TfL.

However people like to present it and cite instances of individual trains being packed, passenger numbers appear to have flatlined this year in the low 80s%. This is roughly in line with local bus and TfL modes.

Fewer journeys are being undertaken on public transport than pre-pandemic, end of. Meanwhile our roads are getting more and more choked with cars despite the fantasy "war on motorists".

There does indeed seem to be a somewhat desperate narrative being peddled by some that "everything is all right" on the railway in this context whereas in reality revenue is tanking and having to be propped up by yet more Government subsidy, and hybrid/new ways of working is sucking the business/season ticket income away.

There has been a post COVID recovery in passenger numbers however largely in the leisure market and occasional Advance fares do not equal the guaranteed income/cashflow of 5 day a week commuters buying annual season tickets, or the more eye watering peak flexible fares used mainly by those on business travel.

Railway advocates/enthusiasts need to get the blinkers off and acknowledge this as well as the need for change to reflect it.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I travelled Norwich to Chelmsford yesterday on the 0803 (first off peak) and it was rammed from Colchester in standard, lots trying to get on at Chelmsford- although a helpful PA reminder that there was another service 2 minutes behind kept quite a few back.

First class noticably quieter than pre-covid although probably due to the lack of consistent FC on GA (or people feeling the sqeeze).

Also did 0920 Cambridge to Broxbourne (single 720) on Tuesday and was really surprised how busy it was.

The peak Norwich to Liverpool Street ones are pretty full too, from Colchester 6 or 7 coaches show as full on the way down and 19:02 on the way back was full and standing. That said, likely there isn't another train full of demand to add an extra peak just yet.