Open Access again: Opinions required...

[Ivo]

Hi all

Over the last few days, I have been working on an Open Access proposal that uses the Midland Main Line, which has been strangely over-looked for OA operations (probably due to its awkward pathing requirements). I ran it past 4SRKT in person yesterday, and have now revised my plan to the point that I would like to submit it to common opinion on here. The plan is included as an Excel file.

Basic plan:

LONDON to BLACKBURN via HUDDERSFIELD
Five trains per day, three of which run the entire route
Trains run almost non-stop south of SHEFFIELD (only the two airport stations and Leicester)
Also operates via MANCHESTER (Victoria), but travel between it and London is not permitted

N.B.: I haven't properly checked the Sunday paths (40 minutes from Luton AP to St Pancras? Huh?), but with the one exception of the 1643 time at Bolton involving an overtake at said station I have not found any conflicts at all. We just have to run fairly slowly down the MML.

EDIT: Have revised the stabling plans. The old system didn't seem to work properly. The new version will be uploaded when I have calculated available fares.

 

[merlodlliw]

Hi all

Over the last few days, I have been working on an Open Access proposal that uses the Midland Main Line, which has been strangely over-looked for OA operations (probably due to its awkward pathing requirements). I ran it past 4SRKT in person yesterday, and have now revised my plan to the point that I would like to submit it to common opinion on here. The plan is included as an Excel file.

Basic plan:

LONDON to BLACKBURN via HUDDERSFIELD
Five trains per day, three of which run the entire route
Trains run almost non-stop south of SHEFFIELD (only the two airport stations and Leicester)
Also operates via MANCHESTER (Victoria), but travel between it and London is not permitted

N.B.: I haven't properly checked the Sunday paths (40 minutes from Luton AP to St Pancras? Huh?), but with the one exception of the 1643 time at Bolton involving an overtake at said station I have not found any conflicts at all. We just have to run fairly slowly down the MML.

First North Western ran trains to Euston From Manchester Vic a few years ago
they also ran to Euston from Manchester Airport, but VT killed them off in a price war. There was no anti compi from Man Vic to Euston then.

Bob

 

[ralphchadkirk]

I take it you know all signalling headways, platform turnarounds, junction times etc ad have included them in the TT?

 

[Ivo]

In all honesty, no; I've tried to match the typical times in the existing TT as far as possible. As I said though, Sundays need more work.

 

[ralphchadkirk]

Interesting proposal. I'll have to look into it in more detail this evening.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

Cool. Will give you this:

PROPOSED: xx38 departure from Blackburn, into London 4h37 later. (DIRECT SERVICE)
CURRENT: xx35 departure from Blackburn, into London 3h37 later. (CHANGE AT PRESTON)

A train leaves Blackburn to Preston at xx15 also, giving a 25 min or so connection into London, but get some good fares, and this is only an hour longer, and a direct train, not impossible to win people over. The xx35 arrives officially into Preston 2 mins after the xx58 Euston leaves, giving you 58 mins before your next direct train. Changing at Crewe (New St Voyager/Manchester Pendolino) saves you only 8 minutes (xx04 ex-Crewe compared to xx12 ex-Preston/Lancaster/Glasgow).

Well though out though Ivo, I respect the time taken to put that together. I would certainly use it!

 

[swt_passenger]

Does your service pass the ORR's 'not primarily abstractive' test? If teh vast majority of your potential passengers are already travelling with EMT you won't get approval.

 

[Zoe]

Does your service pass the ORR's 'not primarily abstractive' test? If teh vast majority of your potential passengers are already travelling with EMT you won't get approval.

Also there are already franchised services from Sheffield to Manchester and Manchester to Blackburn.

 

[Ivo]

I thought about that, and for that reason I have deliberately skipped Derby and gone for the Langley Mill route. I felt that I would be able to call at a maximum of two of the main four stations on the MML (Leicester, Derby, Nottingham, Sheffield), and have thus gone for the two that would be (a) the hardest to avoid and (b) the most sensible. I even considered running via Corby and not Leicester, but in practice that would make the route a bit too slow. As an alternative, we could prohibit local travel between Leicester and London, although I feel that saying the same between Sheffield and London would be a step too far.

Also, look carefully at the various non-EMT stations on the route, and what do you notice? Rotherham, Huddersfield, Bolton, Blackburn... All large towns with no direct service to London, and if you ignore trans-pennine services (whether operated by TPE or otherwise) almost anywhere else as well. This isn't just about getting people to and from the capital; there are also many other flows to exploit. Has anyone thought about Leicester to Manchester, for instance? That particular flow has a potential catchment of 3,000,000!

As for the other already-existing flows, couldn't you say the same about other Open-Access operators? WSMR (sorry guys ) had the entire Wrexham to Wolverhampton route, didn't they?

For the record, the primary target with regards to London is Huddersfield.

 

[TDK]

Hi all

Over the last few days, I have been working on an Open Access proposal that uses the Midland Main Line, which has been strangely over-looked for OA operations (probably due to its awkward pathing requirements). I ran it past 4SRKT in person yesterday, and have now revised my plan to the point that I would like to submit it to common opinion on here. The plan is included as an Excel file.

Basic plan:

LONDON to BLACKBURN via HUDDERSFIELD
Five trains per day, three of which run the entire route
Trains run almost non-stop south of SHEFFIELD (only the two airport stations and Leicester)
Also operates via MANCHESTER (Victoria), but travel between it and London is not permitted

N.B.: I haven't properly checked the Sunday paths (40 minutes from Luton AP to St Pancras? Huh?), but with the one exception of the 1643 time at Bolton involving an overtake at said station I have not found any conflicts at all. We just have to run fairly slowly down the MML.

You can currently get from London to Blackburn in 2h 35m using VT and Northern. I cannot see how you will even make any profit from it after the initial outlay, you will need super low fares and full trains and this won't happen as any commuters or business folks will travel Preston to Euston on VT

 

[MidnightFlyer]

You can currently get from London to Blackburn in 2h 35m using VT and Northern. I cannot see how you will even make any profit from it after the initial outlay, you will need super low fares and full trains and this won't happen as any commuters or business folks will travel Preston to Euston on VT

1/2 of the time... see above for where it takes just one hour less than this (using the xx35 BPS rather than the xx15 BPN)... And when you get to Preston, you either have a Voyager (from Lancaster to supplement the xx58s), or a pretty (already) busy 390 to London. Although WSMR didn't prove this, money is more important to time than some... which Ivo's prposals can acheive. I would think Blackburn/Darwen etc-Huddersfield/Sheffield would be quite well used too.

 

[The Planner]

I take it you know all signalling headways, platform turnarounds, junction times etc ad have included them in the TT?

Not to mention all the troublesome trucks that tend to get in the way.

 

[tbtc]

One thing to be said for this, it shows how stupidly slow the (current) Sheffield - Huddersfield service is!

 

[martinsh]

Sorry to be negative, but I think this is FAR too indirect.

The St Pancras - huddersfield bit just might be possible, but for beyond that I would have a separate service St Pancras - (MML) - Chesterfield - Manchester Victoria - Bolton - Blackburn. Would give a much quicker Leicester - Manchester service as well.

 

[Ivo]

I know it's indirect, but by choosing a more direct route many of the non-London flows - primarily those involving Sheffield - are lost. I wouldn't expect much of a market for London to/from Blackburn anyway (even the route you have suggested is slower than travelling with Virgin), but there is a large market for everything else. That is part of the problem WSMR had; most of their traffic was exclusively to or from London.

Part of running an OA operation is ensuring you have a USP; this route's USP is its ability to link various towns that would usually require a change of train at Manchester and/or Sheffield/Leeds. And couple that with a reasonable pricing structure and people who are interested in value and not a fast service would be "enticed".

 

[Ivo]

OK guys; here you go. I have revised the Stabling Patterns, and included a *very* basic pricing structure as well. Feel free to have a fiddle with the fares, and see what prices you can come up with! The lowest possible price is £1 (equivalent TOC fare £1.20), and the highest is £380 (equivalent TOC fare £406.00). You can probably guess the highest fare, but can you guess the lowest fare (without looking)?

I should point out that a small selection of LGN-ONLY fares are actually greater than their competitor prices. In most cases however, the fares I have determined are roughly 15% lower than the equivalent existing price (based specifically on SORs).

 

[Popper]

Its funny how I made a thread with my Cone- Manchester- London service which passed through Darwen aswell. That secondary route obviously has potential!

 

[Blindtraveler]

as a traveler to Leicester from Scotland, who hates xc, doesnt object to splitting tikets/changing trains a few times and who often spends 10 hours plus on a national express coach for convenience's sake, i'd use it! Edinburgh - preston - blackburn - leicester, would take 7ish hours and as the last 2 times i've gone via darby i've been delayed/missed connections, it wouldnt be all that much different and a lot less crouded to boot. you've also got a nice wee flow from scotland/cumbria to eastmidlands parkway, useful as bmi baby have lost interest in edinburgh/glasgow - east mids flights. another exists from wcml stops north of preston for punters using the package holiday/budget airline hub at Luton, a journey not currently doable with great ease. Only had a few moments to brouze, what rollingstock? if it was me i'd be thinking a 4 car 100mph 172 and as an added selling point, have at least some seating made up of the old br style sprung type, as they are just sooooo cumfy!

 

[TDK]

OK guys; here you go. I have revised the Stabling Patterns, and included a *very* basic pricing structure as well. Feel free to have a fiddle with the fares, and see what prices you can come up with! The lowest possible price is £1 (equivalent TOC fare £1.20), and the highest is £380 (equivalent TOC fare £406.00). You can probably guess the highest fare, but can you guess the lowest fare (without looking)?

I should point out that a small selection of LGN-ONLY fares are actually greater than their competitor prices. In most cases however, the fares I have determined are roughly 15% lower than the equivalent existing price (based specifically on SORs).

WSMR had a lot of enthusiasts on their trains if you use 222's or other units you will not get that income. I honestly feel that there is no potential in this as it is just too slow. People travelling to London on business have their tickets paid for and will alwaus opt for the quickest route. You have a good timetable but no business plan as yet. Have you worked out the cost of :

1. Stock
2. Staff
3. Staff training (if you can get the staff that is)
4. Track access costs
5. Fuel costs
6. Control and management staff
7. Fleet maintenance
8. Advertising
9. Premises for staff

You will need an initial outlay of in excess of £6m and then a running cost with 5 trains a day of over £4m. How are you going to generate the revenue to be in profit in 3 years? The main money will be passengers travelling all the way to London from the key stations on the route, the short hops won't make you anything, you will need to sell your own tickets to passengers and not any permitted to make money and the ORR will look very closely at fare abstraction.

It is a good proposal but not realistic due to time contraints, the ORR and also the costs to run with the stock you are proposing.

 

[mumrar]

Why the hell is everbody so obsessed with Open Access Operators running to London? There are only so many paths available and only so many people available to travel there.

I believe the purpose of allowing OA was to try and encourage some imagination in how you can improve services in places throughout the country, not just to get people from weird and wonderful places to London without the need to change trains.

 

[Simon11]

I can't remember the stats, however the majority of rail traffic in the uk involves London...... More chance of breaking even going to London

I'll be able to find out the stat in 2 months starting my new job

 

[Class172]

Why the hell is everbody so obsessed with Open Access Operators running to London? There are only so many paths available and only so many people available to travel there.

I believe the purpose of allowing OA was to try and encourage some imagination in how you can improve services in places throughout the country, not just to get people from weird and wonderful places to London without the need to change trains.

Not all go to London. If you look at my forum 'three counties,' you'll see that not all OA companies have to go to London - yes, it was originally intended as a TOC but that would be unlikely so it's become OA. The only reason I've got one towards London is because the service is rubbish where I am an there is high demand (it's not a small place and rail is very popular where I live). The other route is a Birmingham-Worcester-Swindon route, with the possibility of going further south (Brighton maybe)

 

[ainsworth74]

Not all go to London. If you look at my forum 'three counties,' you'll see that not all OA companies have to go to London - yes, it was originally intended as a TOC but that would be unlikely so it's become OA.

Yes but no offence mate but your OAO isn't actually operating any trains and is it actually likely to?

Whereas all the active companies and just about all those that are planning to start up in the next few years serve London.

 

[Class172]

Yes but no offence mate but your OAO isn't actually operating any trains and is it actually likely to?

Whereas all the active companies and just about all those that are planning to start up in the next few years serve London.

I know, it's just something for the future

 

[talltim]

Why the hell is everbody so obsessed with Open Access Operators running to London? There are only so many paths available and only so many people available to travel there.

I believe the purpose of allowing OA was to try and encourage some imagination in how you can improve services in places throughout the country, not just to get people from weird and wonderful places to London without the need to change trains.

If you you hadn't written this, then I would have!

 

[andyfrommk]

I can't remember the stats, however the majority of rail traffic in the uk involves London....

70% either start or finish their journey in London
(hopefully that what the graphic says, it may rotate to their other slogans)

 

[rail-britain]

Why the hell is everbody so obsessed with Open Access Operators running to London?

The vast majority of "inter-city" trains operate to/from London, and is normally seen as the most lucrative

Take Scotland as a micro-country, and the argument then transfers into "every service to Edinburgh"
You really can't get away from this model

The next issue is that any new Open Access Operator must not take revenue away from existing TOCs (DfT funded)
This is where the Blackpool - Preston - London proposal fell flat
However, if the Preston stop is removed then it would probably have been approved, as Blackpool - Tamworth, etc does not currently exist and is an interesting travel option (even if the demand is low)

The next issue is an existing TOC then setting up a competing service
With the example above Virgin Trains could easily amend their service to serve Blackpool (the same as they proposed to compete with WSR)

The final issue is obtaining rolling stock
Initially the costs will be high as typically inappropriate stock would have to be used
An example would be a local service serving about 640 passengers between two stations each day, where a Class 153 would be ideal
At present the next nearest suitable would probably be one loco and three coaches, and knowing NR they would probably insist on two locos and five coaches, completely inappropriate

 

[Popper]

I do know of a real OAO that's starting this year and its not going to run services to London

What OAO is that? The one in the almost west country?

 

[Class172]

What OAO is that? The one in the almost west country?

Errm... Maybe

 

[Ivo]

Why the hell is everbody so obsessed with Open Access Operators running to London? There are only so many paths available and only so many people available to travel there.

I believe the purpose of allowing OA was to try and encourage some imagination in how you can improve services in places throughout the country, not just to get people from weird and wonderful places to London without the need to change trains.

I'm not obsessed with London; I've just been trying to exploit the MML. Remember that other thread I made before? The one noted as "Open Access Proposal" in my signature (which links specifically to Post 56)? Plenty of people put forward ideas there, including me. I even went through the costs of tbtc's Bristol to Liverpool idea (which, provided we can get around abstraction issues, looks like a winner with 158s).

I know of a potential and once-genuine (by which I mean pre-Beeching) route that could connect with this idea quite well. If the north are sick of Scarborough and Blackpool, they can change at Luton AP for Brighton - or, with my short-distance plan, Southend (Luton to Southend, calling at both towns' airports, Stratford, and others, using 350 stock).

I'd like to say more, but I have to head over to Keynsham so I can't stay around any longer. All this feedback has been welcome so far!

P.S.: With regards to the Colne idea, I don't think there is a market beyond Burnley. That aside though, it might make for a decent merged proposal? Allowing for my (or 4SRKT's!) wish to serve Hudd though, it wouldn't work at present.

I have many other ideas for OA operations; I shall spill the beans later if people so wish...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
P.S.: Any thoughts about the fare structure? Anyone had a fiddle with it?