Does anyone think the 319 flex project is going to fail ?
Might be worth defining what you mean by the word "fail" - no trains ever making into traffic? That's definitely a failure, but feels unlikely.
However, if you use Reference Class Forecasting and look at projects with similar characteristics (i.e. relatively expensive upgrades to older assets), and look at the 321 Renatus, HST power doors, 230s etc... or at non-rail projects like (heaven forbid) Nimrod MRA4, I'm seeing a clear pattern of late-ness, over-budget and under-performance. It's worth reading
Thinking, Fast and Slow just for that section.
At this point, my inner Daniel Kahneman (writer of the above book) is gleefully pointing out that my list is skewed by Availability Bias, so maybe it's worth people with better knowledge of rolling stock upgrade/repurposing projects to weigh in with other examples?