NPR v TP Electrification or is it really a blend of the two?

[Purple Orange]

I read a lot of comments and articles about a proposed NPR line between Manchester & Leeds, where it is framed in the context of a completely new line. I have also read a lot over the years about electrifying the Trans Pennine line, which is taking a very slow piecemeal approach to deliver its objective. It started with Liverpool-Manchester (a note to the pedants, I am aware it was a different project, but it is still a part of the TPE core). Now it is moving on to Huddersfield-Leeds, then Manchester-Stalybridge and likely Leeds-York before Stalybridge-Huddersfield is addressed.

One day in the future, we will have a situation where NPR has not been fully approved, but Stalybridge-Huddersfield is the only remaining non-electrified section of line on the route.

Therefore will the decision come down to:

1. Build a new line between Stalybridge & Huddersfield (a watered down NPR) or;
2. Electrify the remaining existing line between Stalybridge and Huddersfield

I am thinking it will be option 2, with services along Liverpool-Airport-Manchester-Leeds-Newcastle-Edinburgh being of a similar frequency as today, but using the Manchester HS2 tunnel and reversing out of Piccadilly, probably using an equivalent of a 7-car 802. The Airport-Piccadilly-Leeds section will be no more than 6 tph.

What are people’s thoughts?

 

[Starmill]

I think the first thing to say is that the scope of NPR goes a lot further than just Manchester to York, so it should be seen in that wider, post-HS2 context. TRU doesn't. NPR doesn't have anything funded but is likely to be involving work at Crewe, Hull, Newcastle and scope undefined places.

The second thing is the question over planning and delivery dates. TRU has essentially begun it's earliest work but doesn't have everything funded. It is suggested that it will be around four years work from now. NPR has no notions of any delivery timescales but it's going to be 2030s.

In short that central trade-off between Stalybridge and Huddersfield probably doesn't arise. Even if it did, there is now (again) a good chance the whole route will be electrified anyway.

The final thing to point out is that NPR and HS2 Phase 2b may be the reason why Church Fenton - Colton Jn upgrade and electrification is proceeding already, but Leeds - Church Fenton remains unclear. Equally there may be no relation whatsoever here.