I wonder how many people commenting have actually used the Transpeak service extensively post-Covid, or how much of this is just based on perception, a regular journey, or general dislike of companies owned by one person?
Nowadays, most companies have pretty extensive data at their disposal to know what makes money and what doesn't, where the passengers have returned and where they haven't. Bus patronage has generally flattened out at about 80% of Pre-Covid usage, yet companies are dealing with substantial increases in costs (wages and fuel, even if hedged) and no sign of improvement. I can't go too deeply into what awaits us in October because I haven't read up extensively enough on it to be accurate, but even in areas that weren't successful with their BSIPs (and even where they were, did any council get their entire request?) network reviews are taking place to work out what is viable and what isn't, and I think some armchair commentators in some areas are going to get a bit of a shock when the results come out.
[Interestingly, a piece earlier in the week on the Public Transport Experience Blog, reviewing the Western National Working timetables book, gives some percentages of just how profitable some services were in winter or summer... it wouldn't at all surprise me if it were still the case that some tourist areas routes only exist in winter because of summer visitors even now]
It's not just a case of needing those 20% of passengers back (who, let's be honest, aren't going to come back if they were office workers now working from home, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if some previously computer-unsavvy folk have got very good at arranging their online deliveries over the last two years), it's needing all of those passengers back, and more to cover the uplift in costs. At the same time, you're dealing with uncertainty as to what, if any, assistance is coming from 'on high', what, if any, statutory requirements are going to be magicked upon you at short notice, and trying to make what is often seen as a "low grade" job exciting enough to encourage people to join you in what is a jobseekers' market without needing another couple of percent passenger increase to pay for it.
The maths is a bit errant to say "30% passenger growth", but if anyone thinks they can manage it with 'just a bit of promotion', I think every bus company in the country would be ready to bite your hand off.