Norwich North By-Election

[scandal]

Well very shortly the people of Norwich North will be voting for their new MP, current Lab majority 5,000. Considering that most of the voters are made from the to be new Broadland constituancy are we safe in thinking it will turn blue? Any hopes for the greens?

 

[thefab444]

A gold day would be good, but I doubt that will happen. I predict a blue.

 

[me123]

They've been done by the system, so I think they'll be looking for a radical change. Blue is probably the best for a change. It's never been a "safe" seat for Labour as much as a lot of others, so they're likely to lose I would think.

With the expenses scandal, expect a lot of protest votes. I don't think people will go BNP (I hope to God that they don't go BNP), but there are Independents, Loony candidates, UKIP, "Put an Honest Man into Parliament"... a lot of choices. I expect Torys or Lib Dems, but I also expect a lot of votes to the minority candidates.

I find it disgusting and farcical that Glasgow North East still does not have a date for a by-election whilst the one in Norwich is going ahead today. Indeed, it cannot now have a date until after the Summer Recess leaving them without an MP for over 12 weeks. Michael Martin announced his resignation in May 2009, but Ian Gibson stood down in June 2009. This is unacceptable.

 

[Pumbaa]

A lot of hope for green, we did a hell of a lot of campaigning. At least 2nd would be a darn good result.

 

[Bighat]

They've been done by the system, so I think they'll be looking for a radical change. Blue is probably the best for a change. It's never been a "safe" seat for Labour as much as a lot of others, so they're likely to lose I would think.

With the expenses scandal, expect a lot of protest votes. I don't think people will go BNP (I hope to God that they don't go BNP), but there are Independents, Loony candidates, UKIP, "Put an Honest Man into Parliament"... a lot of choices. I expect Torys or Lib Dems, but I also expect a lot of votes to the minority candidates.

I find it disgusting and farcical that Glasgow North East still does not have a date for a by-election whilst the one in Norwich is going ahead today. Indeed, it cannot now have a date until after the Summer Recess leaving them without an MP for over 12 weeks. Michael Martin announced his resignation in May 2009, but Ian Gibson stood down in June 2009. This is unacceptable.

Yes, but did 'Gorbals Mick' actually take the Chiltern Hundreds, or is he hanging on to his ill gotten gains until Gordon does the honest thing and calls a general election?

 

[me123]

He has "resigned" and has been made the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, nothing to do with the Chiltern Hundreds, a separate but similar entity IIRC. It's Ian Gibson (the ex-Norwich North MP) who holds the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds.

The campaigning for the by-election is underway, but it will now not be held until November at the earliest. Candidates have been declared for BNP, Labour, SNP, SSP, Solidarity and SSCUP. Tories and Lib Dems may not bother as this area is Labour through and through. That said, given SNPs success next door a few, I think Labour may struggle. I think that's their real reason for delaying the by-election.

And, by the way, he has never lived in the Gorbals.

 

[djw1981]

The Labour Party Managers clearly want a ncie spread of bad news

 

[Oswyntail]

The Labour Party Managers clearly want a ncie spread of bad news

In that case why don't they just stop Pa Broon speaking, appearing, or attempting to do anything?

 

[djw1981]

Because he is a separate entity - he is prime minister. This has little to do with Labour really.

 

[me123]

The Labour Party Managers clearly want a ncie spread of bad news

Exactly, but I've already seen a couple of attempts to attack SNP which have failed. Nothing like what we're seeing from Westminster in terms of scandal and overall political point scoring.

Non-Labour candidates will see what Labour are doing. Depriving an area of an MP for about 5 months for political reasons? Not just that, but some of the most deprived areas in the UK where the recession will probably hit the hardest? It will anger local people, and if the opponents play their cards right it could be anyone's election.

Harriet Harman claimed that an election now would be bad because of the school holidays; people are away. But there's, as far as I know, nothing to have stopped her calling the election at the end of August. And the "school holiday" argument doesn't hold for me when you consider that the Norwich election is being held in a school holiday.

 

[djw1981]

The SNP are doing a good job at self destruction is Glasgow North EAst anyway......

 

[me123]

Yeah, the guy they've sent in is absolutely farcical. He doesn't really have a chance I wouldn't think. Then again, being a member of Opus Dei could actually be of benefit in that area...

 

[37401]

Just in: Conservative won it

 

[scandal]

Very interesting, turnout has fallen 20% from 61% in the 2005 General Election to just 41% in this by-election. Interestingly the torys vote has stayed the same since the previous elections in the area at about 15,000 so it can hardly be claimed that there is now a mass movement to the torys. Labour traditionally, under Gibson scored about 20,000 in the area, this has slumped to just 6,000 showing a clear abandonement attached to the low turnout points that rather then the torys triumphing its actually Labours failures that ahve cost them the seat.

Impressively the gap between Greens have made big gains in the area and I'd be very suprised if Norwich South didnt go Green in 2010. As I pointed out the 7,000 new majority is down to a low turnout and abandonement of Labour voters to the polls, interestingly the Conservative strong holds kept their high turnout as we can see by the results. The victory is also shallow for the torys, as Ive said the seat is loosing the traditional Conservative stronghold parts to the new Broadlands Constituancy in the next election so the seat could still change colours again next election in just under a year.

Whatever the case it has given the Conservatives more room to argue that they are the party of the people and that Labour is finished, 1996 anyone?

 

[Oswyntail]

..... Interestingly the torys vote has stayed the same since the previous elections in the area at about 15,000 so it can hardly be claimed that there is now a mass movement to the torys....

Yes it can. Even if turnout is lower, a similar result to the previous election would see the votes allocated in teh same proportion, so all parties would see reductions in votes. As it is, this represents something like a 16% swing to the Conservatives, which sounds like a mass movement to me.

 

[me123]

Exactly the same as Europe; Labour voters can't bear to vote for Labour or Conservative, so they stay at home. Expect this at the General Election. I hope this means that some smaller parties, like Greens, can get a few seats, but at the same time I hope this doesn't go for the BNP candidates!