Northern timetable plan for May 2018

[Philip]

The obvious solution to the delay in reinstating the Scottish service through Bolton is to run the Northern Connect to Cumbria via Bolton until the electrification is complete, then they can swap around. Would probably make sense to also then run non-stop to Preston via Chorley, the faster route, and so TPE can continue to serve Wigan temporarily with their Scotland trains.

 

[Mathew S]

The obvious solution to the delay in reinstating the Scottish service through Bolton is to run the Northern Connect to Cumbria via Bolton until the electrification is complete, then they can swap around. Would probably make sense to also then run non-stop to Preston via Chorley, the faster route, and so TPE can continue to serve Wigan temporarily with their Scotland trains.

Indeed. I'd suggest that's probably an easy win.
What to do with the Blackpool - Manchester services is probably more of a conundrum, but we've already discussed that up thread.

 

[WatcherZero]

I'm right in assuming that the main reason for the moving of TPE Scottish service to route via Bolton is that Wigan already has Scottish services meaning that the TPE essentially becomes a commuter train?

Part of the reason for diverting via Wigan in addition to the wires was it was effectively a Bolton/Chorley commuter train in the peaks, so many got off at Bolton the train was practically empty, they brought in the not calling at Wigan in high peaks to try and prevent the same thing happening. There has still been significant shift however with the advantage of the quicker and better quality trains, in excess of 200,000 people a year switched from Wallgate to North Western for Manchester services (and brought the franchise requirement to maintain the journey time). It seems to primarily be an issue in the mornings though, theres usually significant amounts of people standing on the service from Preston then its chocka from Wigan while in the afternoon/evening the loads are more evenly distributed so there is a few standing (except for the first TPE evening off peak service which is still usually rammed). TPE have also managed to significantly grow the Scotland-Manchester traffic while its been operating via Wigan though I will still argue they haven't ordered enough stock to reduce standing for longer than a couple of years.

 

[Mathew S]

Part of the reason for diverting via Wigan in addition to the wires was it was effectively a Bolton/Chorley commuter train in the peaks, so many got off at Bolton the train was practically empty, they brought in the not calling at Wigan in high peaks to try and prevent the same thing happening. There has still been significant shift however with the advantage of the quicker and better quality trains, in excess of 200,000 people a year switched from Wallgate to North Western for Manchester services (and brought the franchise requirement to maintain the journey time). It seems to primarily be an issue in the mornings though, theres usually significant amounts of people standing on the service from Preston then its chocka from Wigan while in the afternoon/evening the loads are more evenly distributed so there is a few standing (except for the first TPE evening off peak service which is still usually rammed). TPE have also managed to significantly grow the Scotland-Manchester traffic while its been operating via Wigan though I will still argue they haven't ordered enough stock to reduce standing for longer than a couple of years.

All of that is absolutely correct. In fact I'm surprised that the 200,000 figure isn't even higher than that. The evening peak is more more distributed than the morning, and non-stopping the 5pm (from the airport) in Wigan also helps. The last service of the day (9pm) also doesn't stop at Wigan.
The 8am and 9am Manchester bound services from Wigan are easily the most overcrowded trains I've ever used... on bad days they could give many Tube services a run for their money.

 

[northwichcat]

The 8am and 9am Manchester bound services from Wigan are easily the most overcrowded trains I've ever used... on bad days they could give many Tube services a run for their money.

8am service reported as having 344 standard class passengers on train with 191 standard class seats. Although, not sure about giving the tube a run for their money as LU trains are designed to carry more standing than sitting passengers. Interestingly if a 4 car 156 ran in the same path there would only be an average of around 10 passengers per carriage without seats.

 

[Bletchleyite]

8am service reported as having 344 standard class passengers on train with 191 standard class seats. Although, not sure about giving the tube a run for their money as LU trains are designed to carry more standing than sitting passengers. Interestingly if a 4 car 156 ran in the same path there would only be an average of around 10 passengers per carriage without seats.

That assumes it's not self-managing, i.e. some taking the slower services from Wallgate instead because of the overcrowding who would switch if it lessened. I do that kind of thing when commuting myself, and it's a commonly held theory in relation to traffic congestion on the roads that goes together with the idea that if you build a road with a view to reducing congestion people will fill it up with cars.

But to me logic says to run an 6/8-car EMU (a pair of 319s or 323s) directly behind it, add u/s restrictions or remove the stop, and the problem would be solved. In the end I'd rather have a seat in a 1980s train than stand packed into a 2000s one. (And that's actually a commuting choice I make; the train I take into London is formed of a pair of 319s).

 

[Mathew S]

That assumes it's not self-managing, i.e. some taking the slower services from Wallgate instead because of the overcrowding who would switch if it lessened. I do that kind of thing when commuting myself, and it's a commonly held theory in relation to traffic congestion on the roads that goes together with the idea that if you build a road with a view to reducing congestion people will fill it up with cars.

But to me logic says to run an 6/8-car EMU (a pair of 319s or 323s) directly behind it, add u/s restrictions or remove the stop, and the problem would be solved. In the end I'd rather have a seat in a 1980s train than stand packed into a 2000s one. (And that's actually a commuting choice I make; the train I take into London is formed of a pair of 319s).

For the 8am service, there's a train three (I think) minutes behind that departs from platform 1 or 2, you don't even have to use the subway. It's normally deserted, perhaps 20% occupied on a four car 150/156. I've seen people squeeze into a standing room only 350 where they're lucky to have oom to take their coat off rather than get a seat on the Northern service.
There's also a train which departs from Wallgate one minute earlier than the TPE and follows it through Deansgate/Oxford Road/Picadilly. Again, often half empty on departing Wigan.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In which case...do we necessarily need to do anything? The capacity is there and people are deliberately choosing the discomfort. Why I have no idea. Is it because they don't know the Northern services are quieter? Could something I've proposed many times, putting loading information on the Journey Planner like the Swiss do, help to solve this?

Another thing I certainly do is look at the train formation/loadings information LNR publish - and avoid 4-car sets like the plague. But is that information widely available enough, and is it clear enough?

I saw a similar thing a few weeks ago - Preston to Manchester Airport - there was a 3-car TPE (rammed to the rafters) followed by a 4-car Northern 156, which admittedly wasn't as posh but gave everyone a unit of seating (pair of airlines or table) each. But we don't really inform people of this. I know a train in the platform is worth 2 on the board, but now some stations have reservation information displayed could we extend that to a simple red, amber and green on projected loading? And on trains like the Thameslink 700s with counting equipment installed, extend it to *actual* loading?

 

[northwichcat]

The following service (which departs 1 minute later) arrives in Victoria at 08:39, while the TPE arrives at Oxford Rd at 08:22, so depending where your workplace is the Victoria service might not be suitable.

 

[Mathew S]

Why I have no idea.

No, me neither.
Honestly I think that non-stopping the Scotlands (or having an enforced pick up/set down restriction) is the only way to solve crowding on those. Once the fast Wigan-Manchester becomes a Northern DMU I don't think it will attract quite the same crush of commuters.

 

[Mathew S]

The following service (which departs 1 minute later) arrives in Victoria at 08:39, while the TPE arrives at Oxford Rd at 08:22, so depending where your workplace is the Victoria service might not be suitable.

True, but there's also the airport service from Wallgate which is literally the next train behind the TPE through Deansgate/Oxford Road/Picadilly.
A lot of this is people wanting to get the TPE because they see an undeniably nicer train. Personally I'd rather have a seat and not be crushed like a sardine, but evidently I'm in the minority

 

[Starmill]

I think you've missed the point. What matters is how busy the train is when it arrives in Manchester, not when it leaves Wigan.

There was a significant effort to move people from Wallgate to North Western when the change first happened. This is why people got used to doing it. It's crucial because capacity via Bolton was reduced, so if trains were leaving Wigan Wallgate full there would not be room for people to board at Bolton.

It isn't some kind of surprise that people prefer to use services from WGN. They were encouraged to do so.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The following service (which departs 1 minute later) arrives in Victoria at 08:39, while the TPE arrives at Oxford Rd at 08:22, so depending where your workplace is the Victoria service might not be suitable.

Ah, I thought people meant the following service was to or via Picc. In which case we are back to needing an EMU to South Manchester just behind. Vic at 0839 is no use for anyone going to the University or MRI for 9, for example, as a good many will be.

 

[Mathew S]

Ah, I thought people meant the following service was to or via Picc. In which case we are back to needing an EMU to South Manchester just behind. Vic at 0839 is no use for anyone going to the University or MRI for 9, for example, as a good many will be.

Probably my fault for being unclear, appologies. Yes, you're right, ideally. But one way or another this is all going to change from May anyway, so it's a bit academic at this point.

In the original version of the May timetable, there weren't going to be any EMU services from Wigan to Manchester. The fast via Chat Moss would become a 150/158 from Barrow/Windermere, while all the other services would remain diesels (albeit that the Staleybridge & Alderley Edge services I think were expected to be 769 bi-modes when that became possible). That may still happen in December, but who knows.

Timings-wise, because the Chat Moss service into Manchester had a rubbish path at xx:23, the shortest journey time ended up as the xx:25 from Southport to Blackburn via Walkden and Victoria. But as I say, it will be interesting to see how things play out.

 

[northwichcat]

I think you've missed the point. What matters is how busy the train is when it arrives in Manchester, not when it leaves Wigan.

There was a significant effort to move people from Wallgate to North Western when the change first happened. This is why people got used to doing it. It's crucial because capacity via Bolton was reduced, so if trains were leaving Wigan Wallgate full there would not be room for people to board at Bolton.

Indeed. If the solution is to board the train via Bolton in the morning to get a seat, what's the solution in the evening when the Bolton passengers may be able to board that service first?

 

[Mathew S]

I think you've missed the point. What matters is how busy the train is when it arrives in Manchester, not when it leaves Wigan.

There was a significant effort to move people from Wallgate to North Western when the change first happened. This is why people got used to doing it. It's crucial because capacity via Bolton was reduced, so if trains were leaving Wigan Wallgate full there would not be room for people to board at Bolton.

It isn't some kind of surprise that people prefer to use services from WGN. They were encouraged to do so.

Fair point. I don't think anyone ever realised quite how crowded the TPEs would get. The morning services from Wigan via Bolton are still less crowded (obviously basing this purely on my own experience, I don't have any actual evidence) than the TPE service, so in that sense if some passengers were to go back the other way it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Indeed. If the solution is to board the train via Bolton in the morning to get a seat, what's the solution in the evening when the Bolton passengers may be able to board that service first?

Peak journeys Manchester-Wigan are overcrowded, but it is indeed the via Bolton services which are worst. Particularly, in my experience, the xx:22 Southport via Bolton services from Picadilly. Ironically, the 17:00 Airport-Scotland service isn't as crowded as some of the morning inound services, because it doesn't call at Wigan at all; which is partly what leads to the breathing by numbers on the 17:22. I'd go so far as to say, though, that close to 50% of the passengers on that service are for Bolton, so it really does show up why that extra capacity is so sorely needed.

The May timetable has (well, had) faster services running via Atherton than at present, which will help if passengers can be persuaded to use them; but that means travelling from Victoria; something which many Wigan commuters seem practically allergic to.

 

[WatcherZero]

You do have to factor in the destination choice both for connections and final destination (where in the city centre they are trying to get too), more trains per hour to Victoria means more even loading.
Its arguable whether a non stopping service to Victoria in exactly the same time would create the same level of demand.

 

[Class 170101]

How many DMUs short do we think Northern / TPE are running their proposed May 2018 timetable?

Has the industry been encouraged to support Northern and TPE with the loaning of DMUs by covering certain service with EMUs?

For example
Scotrail between Edinburgh and Dunbar,
Northern between Newcastle and Chathill
Northern cancelling services between Sunderland and Newcastle passengers to use Tyne and Wear services in lieu
Services between MetroCentre and Newcastle cancelled passengers directed to Newcastle to Carlisle services instead
Loco Haulage between Leeds and Carlisle (or perhaps EMUs between Leeds and Skipton and a change of train)
DMUs only between Hastings and Ashford. EMUs in lieu?

 

[Starmill]

Most of those ideas will create far larger problems than anything in this thread. They're also unlike to release a very large number of DMUs.

 

[driver_m]

Maybe Wigan should have some system where passengers can see at both stations, what the next train to Manchester is, and also something like what Euston has for VT services which show reservation levels on the TPE service (obvs no use for a 142!) Ideally, there should be one centralised station in Wigan, but it doesn't seem like it will ever happen, can't see Burnham going for it.

 

[Mathew S]

Maybe Wigan should have some system where passengers can see at both stations, what the next train to Manchester is, and also something like what Euston has for VT services which show reservation levels on the TPE service (obvs no use for a 142!) Ideally, there should be one centralised station in Wigan, but it doesn't seem like it will ever happen, can't see Burnham going for it.

Combined departure screens across the stations would be a start.
One single station has been proposed a million times (effectively by closing Wallgate to all but buses & taxis from the bridge to the traffic lights and building a canopy over it, turning it into a kind of transport hub). The last serious proposal - about 10 years ago - was full funded, costed, and planned... then rejected by the 'enlightened' population of Greater Manchester in a referendum, along with many other transport improvements. An outcome that the region is still counting the costs of today.

The Andy Burnham / TfGM ambition to take over management of railway stations would possibly help, but as I understand it that's very much on the back burner at present since DfT's lukewarm response to the proposal.

 

[Class 170101]

Most of those ideas will create far larger problems than anything in this thread. They're also unlike to release a very large number of DMUs.

What do you suggest to cover a short fall of DMUs with none in storage that I knw of that could be brought out to play?

 

[Mathew S]

What do you suggest to cover a short fall of DMUs with none in storage that I knw of that could be brought out to play?

I don't think the shortfall at Northern will create any insurmountable problems in the limited period of time it will be a major issue (7 months, maximum, hopefully). Disrupting services elsewhere might, therefore, not necessarily be an entirely sensible option.

 

[Starmill]

What do you suggest to cover a short fall of DMUs with none in storage that I knw of that could be brought out to play?

The shortage is extant and has been for several years. I predict it will continue to be, probably for several more years. I'm not sure what else there is to say.

 

[PR1Berske]

Combined departure screens across the stations would be a start.
One single station has been proposed a million times (effectively by closing Wallgate to all but buses & taxis from the bridge to the traffic lights and building a canopy over it, turning it into a kind of transport hub). The last serious proposal - about 10 years ago - was full funded, costed, and planned... then rejected by the 'enlightened' population of Greater Manchester in a referendum, along with many other transport improvements. An outcome that the region is still counting the costs of today.

The Andy Burnham / TfGM ambition to take over management of railway stations would possibly help, but as I understand it that's very much on the back burner at present since DfT's lukewarm response to the proposal.

One of those "long overdue" proposals which redefines the word "long". I can envisage a truly connected "Wigan Interchange", for train and buses, and had the Leigh mistake not happened, tram too.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe Wigan should have some system where passengers can see at both stations, what the next train to Manchester is, and also something like what Euston has for VT services which show reservation levels on the TPE service (obvs no use for a 142!) Ideally, there should be one centralised station in Wigan, but it doesn't seem like it will ever happen, can't see Burnham going for it.

There is a place where you can see live departure screens for both Wigan stations - its the Wigan Central pub underneath North Western

 

[Class 170101]

There is a place where you can see live departure screens for both Wigan stations - its the Wigan Central pub underneath North Western

Probably not much use though at 8am

 

[yorksrob]

Probably not much use though at 8am

Ah, I'm not aware of them doing lock-ins !

 

[childwallblues]

For the 8am service, there's a train three (I think) minutes behind that departs from platform 1 or 2, you don't even have to use the subway. It's normally deserted, perhaps 20% occupied on a four car 150/156. I've seen people squeeze into a standing room only 350 where they're lucky to have oom to take their coat off rather than get a seat on the Northern service.
There's also a train which departs from Wallgate one minute earlier than the TPE and follows it through Deansgate/Oxford Road/Picadilly. Again, often half empty on departing Wigan.

Unfortunately people are snobs and think it is up market to travel on the TPE train. I would rather travel on a 142 than on the 0800 from WGN.

 

[northwichcat]

Apparently the final Northern timetables for the May 2018 timetable change have been delayed until 8th March, usually they would be available 12 weeks in advance of the change.