Northern timetable plan for May 2018

[scrapy]

There are a limited number of options for saving DMUs and they are all either very expensive (introduce a third Cumbrian Coast Loco Hauled diagram) or very unpalatable (cut to capacity between Bolton and Manchester, cuts to through services e.g. York - Blackpool at Preston).

I'm not sure they will agree it makes sense to introduce enhancements to services at Harrogate or Retford at these costs.

Ive spoke to someone in train planning and very provisionally.

Blackpool to Manchester Airport likely to run via WCML and Chat Moss subject to paths. Barrow/Windermere to run via Bolton to either Man Vic or Man Ox Rd.

Almost certainly the Blackpool to Macclesfield will be split with 323s operating Macclesfield to Oxford Rd/Deansgate (with Trafford Park reversal) and diesel operated Preston to Manchester Ox Rd with 319 shuttle to/from Blackpool. Wigan to Alderley Edge may also be split at Ox Rd with electric workings to Alderley.

The Atherton line will likely have it's increase to 4tph postponed with 3tph instead and altered timings and stopping patterns from originally proposed.

Enhancements East of the Pennines unlikely to be affected. Extra Greenbank, Buxton and Rochdale trains not certain but definitely not cancelled yet.

TPE plan to implement new timetable with exception of Scotland trains going via Chat Moss instead of Bolton. They may temporarily up some local station calls between Piccadilly and the Airport.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Well I guess we are all being armchair fat controllers or timetablers.
But it would be nice to see some clever planning to use what new infrastructure there is to get as close to the planned service as possible.
DfT will have to lump some reductions in service because of the late delivery of wires.
The other imponderable is how many cascaded DMUs will arrive in time from Scotrail/GWR.

 

[lejog]

Just the delayed Bolton electrification if the current routes are maintained. Both current services have roughly a 2 hour turn around running doubled up units. 8 x 769s where meant be in service by May, roughly replacing another 16 DMUs. So they are really the equivalent to 32 x 150s short.

Most of the franchise commitments will have to be ignored until December. I know it would be unreliable but Buxton-Piccadilly-Bolton-Preston would be the most efficient use of DMUs. EMUs could then run 2tph serving the smaller stops between Hazel Grove and Piccadilly (terminating there). Blackpool must surely be served by EMUs to Liverpool and to Manchester via Golborne. Northern don't have DMUs to put more than the bare minimum on services through Bolton. It will be interesting to see what Northern come up with.

Thanks, so trying to look at the bigger picture, IIRC Northern will have the around 15(?) 150s cascaded from GWR and 6(?) 158s/170s from Scotland by May. But are down the equivalent of 32 150s from their planned fleet.

In round terms it seems that they will have only 20 of the 50 extra 2 car DMU equivalents in place by the new timetable. If the TPE North changes take place, that would need say 6-8 of those 20. All I'll say is that there will need to be substantial cuts to the improved timetable and likely even more short formed trains.

 

[northwichcat]

That doesn't work. Leeds to Huddersfield is 40mins, Hud to Manchester is 45mins, Liverpool-CLC-Airport will be 72 mins. Northern also still need to replace the 158s switched to Cumbria services. Which is why I'm awaiting the official announcements rather than indulging in forum speculation/gossip about the TPE North changes.

While Victoria to Huddersfield services aren't self-contained the unit arriving at Huddersfield from Victoria sits there for around 30 minutes before returning, consequently 2 diagrams wouldn't be able to run all services to the current timetable.

 

[northwichcat]

The other imponderable is how many cascaded DMUs will arrive in time from Scotrail/GWR.

If what's been reported on wnxx is true Northern will have 14 x 150s from GWR by May (counting the ones which have already arrived this month.) GWR are also releasing 8 x 153s in May - it's unclear if the plan is still for some to go to WMT so that they can release 150s to Northern.

The franchise agreement was based on no cascades from Scotrail ahead of the December 17 timetable change (which was supposed to be when the enhancements happened) but Northern have 2 x 158s from Scotrail and are expected to get 4 x 170s before the May timetable change. Obviously crews will need training on 170s before they can enter service.

 

[northwichcat]

Most of the franchise commitments will have to be ignored until December.

Which won't go down well given some routes really needed enhancements 10 years ago.

 

[northwichcat]

cuts to through services e.g. York - Blackpool at Preston

Given the Liverpool service was temporarily split at Preston, I'm not sure why the York service should be immune from a temporary split to free up a 158.

 

[Starmill]

Given the Liverpool service was temporarily split at Preston, I'm not sure why the York service should be immune from a temporary split to free up a 158.

It's a move I would support. But it's also likely to raise objections. It was only indicative too - I don't have evidence that Northern are considering this.

 

[Jamesrob637]

The Mid Cheshire and others can go more frequent on Sundays though, can't they? This doesn't require more stock

 

[Kite159]

Could Northern push back the changes to the Buxton line to free up additional DMUs (i.e. keeping it as hourly with peak-time extras, rather than 2 trains an hour). Due to the Bolton line not being wired up in time.

 

[Mathew S]

Blackpool to Manchester Airport likely to run via WCML and Chat Moss subject to paths. Barrow/Windermere to run via Bolton to either Man Vic or Man Ox Rd.

Makes sense. Honestly as someone who regularly commutes Wigan-Manchester what matters is retaining a fast service via Chat Moss, so that would be ideal.

The Atherton line will likely have it's increase to 4tph postponed with 3tph instead and altered timings and stopping patterns from originally proposed.

There was a Wigan Wallgate - Victoria service proposed. Ditch that would seem sensible.

TPE plan to implement new timetable with exception of Scotland trains going via Chat Moss instead of Bolton. They may temporarily up some local station calls between Piccadilly and the Airport.

Presumably non-stopping Wigan (and possibly Oxford Road) to make up time?

 

[Starmill]

It'd obviously require franchise agreement variation, but one option would be to truncate all the Lakes and Furness services to Oxenholme and Lancaster for the time being, with a replacement service from Manchester terminating at Oxenholme operated using Class 319s via Wigan. Until Bolton is wired, I agree that something running from Manchester that presently terminates there running to Preston (only) is probably the most efficient option, plus it has the Southport and Clitheroe services.

I can imagine it now, services from Buxton arriving in the morning peak at Hazel Grove and turfing everyone off before going into the siding and waiting for an EMU to come out of the other siding and pick them up before doing it all backwards again in a few minutes...

 

[323235]

The Mid Cheshire and others can go more frequent on Sundays though, can't they? This doesn't require more stock

It was rather frustrating that we didn't get some sort of hourly Sunday stopping service on the Stoke line in December, whilst other services were upgraded from two hourly to hourly. There are loads of 323s spare on Sundays and our line has gotten very busy since the extra 2tpd each way that run between 9am-3pm were introduced.

 

[tbtc]

I'm not sure they will agree it makes sense to introduce enhancements to services at Harrogate or Retford at these costs.

I think some enhancements will have to be postponed - no argument - but at least the Harrogate and Retford improvements were just a case of "adding in off-peak journeys to broadly match the current peak frequencies" (i.e. using existing units, albeit ones that could have been used for maintenance during the middle of the day, but not needing any more trains - no change to the PVR).

Whereas a lot of the plans obviously require more trains, so will be harder to deliver.

But, who knows...

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I can imagine it now, services from Buxton arriving in the morning peak at Hazel Grove and turfing everyone off before going into the siding and waiting for an EMU to come out of the other siding and pick them up before doing it all backwards again in a few minutes...

As per New Mills in the 1980's? Train arrived from Manchester, everybody off, train shunts into tunnel to reverse. Simultaneously, train arrives from Sheffield, everybody off, train shunts towards Manchester and reverses. Both trains then return to the platform and load. Can't let them South Yorkshire folk gets their hands on our Newton Heath lovelies!

 

[Chester1]

Ive spoke to someone in train planning and very provisionally.

Blackpool to Manchester Airport likely to run via WCML and Chat Moss subject to paths. Barrow/Windermere to run via Bolton to either Man Vic or Man Ox Rd.

Almost certainly the Blackpool to Macclesfield will be split with 323s operating Macclesfield to Oxford Rd/Deansgate (with Trafford Park reversal) and diesel operated Preston to Manchester Ox Rd with 319 shuttle to/from Blackpool. Wigan to Alderley Edge may also be split at Ox Rd with electric workings to Alderley.

The Atherton line will likely have it's increase to 4tph postponed with 3tph instead and altered timings and stopping patterns from originally proposed.

Enhancements East of the Pennines unlikely to be affected. Extra Greenbank, Buxton and Rochdale trains not certain but definitely not cancelled yet.

TPE plan to implement new timetable with exception of Scotland trains going via Chat Moss instead of Bolton. They may temporarily up some local station calls between Piccadilly and the Airport.

Using 3 out of 5 of Oxford Roads platforms for terminating services is an interesting solution. It could get messy but would limit the damage to cross city links.

Thanks, so trying to look at the bigger picture, IIRC Northern will have the around 15(?) 150s cascaded from GWR and 6(?) 158s/170s from Scotland by May. But are down the equivalent of 32 150s from their planned fleet.

In round terms it seems that they will have only 20 of the 50 extra 2 car DMU equivalents in place by the new timetable. If the TPE North changes take place, that would need say 6-8 of those 20. All I'll say is that there will need to be substantial cuts to the improved timetable and likely even more short formed trains.

TPE will take 4 x 185s. So I think its 14+6-4=16 so 32 extra coaches vs the planned 96! Your last point sums it up.

The other problem is that pacers start going off lease mid September starting with 5 x144s. While Northern might be able to get a short extension until December, the new W&B franchise holder (from October) will probably want them very quickly to allow 150s to go for PRM TSI mods because none of their 36 x 150s have been modified yet! The W&B would be able to offer to lease them until the end of 2019 which would be very desirable for Porterbrook so there is no guarantee that Northern will have all the units it starts with in May until the end of the timetable period!

The Mid Cheshire and others can go more frequent on Sundays though, can't they? This doesn't require more stock

Mid Cheshire line improvements should not be affected. I would imagine that Northern and the DfT will be keen to publicise these sort of improvements to take attention away from the electrification mess.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can imagine it now, services from Buxton arriving in the morning peak at Hazel Grove and turfing everyone off before going into the siding and waiting for an EMU to come out of the other siding and pick them up before doing it all backwards again in a few minutes...

I wasn't quite going to go that far, but there are other places where it happens like Ormskirk and Kirkby. It would be a nuisance, but only a temporary one and one that would ease overcrowding elsewhere by freeing up a DMU or two.

My main view is to stop running DMUs to the Airport if there is somewhere else sensible to reverse them; Picc to the Airport is very lightly loaded compared with elsewhere on the network so it can't be a sensible priority except as a terminus of convenience. There are enough EMUs about to run a dedicated service, which could actually be upsold as an airport express with a dedicated platform (11 or 12 at Picc) etc. Similarly truncate the Barrows and Windermeres for the time being; it could be a good opportunity to try out a proper clockface service on both, and in my experience the through services mostly tip out at Lancaster, are very quiet between there and Preston, and pick up an entirely new set of passengers at Preston going to Manchester.

 

[Ian Brown]

Could Northern push back the changes to the Buxton line to free up additional DMUs (i.e. keeping it as hourly with peak-time extras, rather than 2 trains an hour). Due to the Bolton line not being wired up in time.

If the peak service is half hourly, my armchair planning department cannot see why half hourly off peak incurs extra resources, particularly as off peak these can be 2 cars, with some peak services 4 cars?

 

[Confused147]

Cant help thinking the 319s are going to be reduced from 4 cars to just 3 cars. Remember they did the same to 304s in the 80s.

 

[Mathew S]

Cant help thinking the 319s are going to be reduced from 4 cars to just 3 cars. Remember they did the same to 304s in the 80s.

Why though? What would they gain from doing that? Appologies if I'm being thick, but it's not as though Northern are short of EMUs and what would the benefit of shortening them be? Wouldn't they just end up with a load of unpowered middle carriages with no driving cabs?

 

[Confused147]

Why though? What would they gain from doing that? Appologies if I'm being thick, but it's not as though Northern are short of EMUs and what would the benefit of shortening them be? Wouldn't they just end up with a load of unpowered middle carriages with no driving cabs?

They did it with the class 304s in the 1980s they scrapped all the unpowered middle carriages with no driving cabs because the bay platform at Stoke-on-Trent isn't long enough for four car emus. They only reduced a small number at first but diagramming difficulties meant they had reduce them all to three cars. Cant help thinking the 319s will meet the same fate.

 

[Mathew S]

They did it with the class 304s in the 1980s they scrapped all the unpowered middle carriages with no driving cabs because the bay platform at Stoke-on-Trent isn't long enough for four car emus. They only reduced a small number at first but diagramming difficulties meant they had reduce them all to three cars. Cant help thinking the 319s will meet the same fate.

I didnt know that. But it does sound like it would cutting off their noses to spite their faces, given how few of the total number of EMU services calling at Stoke will actually be.

 

[50032]

Cant help thinking the 319s are going to be reduced from 4 cars to just 3 cars. Remember they did the same to 304s in the 80s.

Not possible.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not possible.

If you can convert the things to DMUs you can move the air compressor to another coach, so it's *possible*. It's probably not financially viable, sensible or necessary, though, so I agree it won't happen.

 

[Starmill]

I'm struggling to see what Stoke-on-Trent has got to do with anything. There will be 3 car units and Stoke-on-Trent has more than one platform if it should transpire that a 4 car had to visit. A 319 is probably too slow for Stoke-on-Trent work anyway...

 

[Jamesrob637]

Could Northern push back the changes to the Buxton line to free up additional DMUs (i.e. keeping it as hourly with peak-time extras, rather than 2 trains an hour). Due to the Bolton line not being wired up in time.

You can't really get away with 2 car on Buxton services in the late-2010s and moving forward. Maybe the very last train on a Sunday

 

[Mathew S]

You can't really get away with 2 car on Buxton services in the late-2010s and moving forward. Maybe the very last train on a Sunday

Same applies for many other services though (Bolton & Southport spring to mind), but the whole things going to be a massive compromise until the new stock arrives and engineering is completed. At the end of the day, a reliable 2 car service is better than cancellations and muddling due to a lack of stock. At least people know what they're going to get.

 

[IanXC]

Given the Liverpool service was temporarily split at Preston, I'm not sure why the York service should be immune from a temporary split to free up a 158.

It's a move I would support. But it's also likely to raise objections. It was only indicative too - I don't have evidence that Northern are considering this.

Unless you can find something to interwork them with this won't help. The ex York arrival at Preston is currently xx48, with the departure back towards York at xx37, so as per the current blockade all you'd be doing is terminating at Preston to shunt the unit out of the way and then return for what would be its usual time from Preston had it been through to Blackpool.

Unless you are proposing to retime the service right across the Pennines?!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Talking of interworking, do the West Lancashire changes (Ormskirk-Blackpool S-Colne-Preston-Ormskirk circuit, or whatever it is) require an extra unit/crew, or are they just more efficient diagramming and therefore likely to go ahead anyway?

 

[Starmill]

Unless you are proposing to retime the service right across the Pennines?!

As it happens, it would seem that this retiming was proposed anyway.

However I wasn't actually proposing anything, rather using it as an example. Indeed that would offer just a 5 minute turnaround.