Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) - Latest plans & speculation

[HSTEd]

If the NPR line is to be a full new build line and if Leeds station was adapted to take 400m trains, perhaps there would be a case, although that does not seem to be happening. If the Independent report is correct, the the government has shown its hand in terms of investment east of Huddersfield - I.e. no investment.

Even with no investment you still get 2 platforms capable of taking ~340m trainsets at Leeds.

4x340m trainsets is still a lot compared to the current offer.
And if they end up wildly oversubscribed that strengthens the case to go back to the Treasury for more money.

Plus 4x400m tph between London and Leeds via Manchester is simply not enough capacity. London-Manchester alone is meant to be 3x400m tph, and then you have to allow for trans pennine passengers. Under that plan you’re effectively reducing the London-Manchester capacity down to 2x400 tph.

Right now we have 3 11-car Pendolinos to Manchester and 2 9-car IEPs (2x5 has about the same number of seats) to Leeds.

3 x 589 seats + 2 x 611 = 2989 seats per hour.

A 340m IEP-equivalent is going to have something like 13-cars.

A 13-car IEP is going to have capacity of around ~336 (84x4) more seats than a 9-car set.
Which means each set could easily have about 947 seats.

947 x 4 = 3788 seats per hour.

It's still a 26.7% uplift over the status quo - and like I said, if it ends up oversubscribed then the railway authorities have a strong case to go back to the Treasury for platform lengthening at Leeds.

HS2's capacity assesments were for a very long term projection, we are talking about a much more near term scenario here.

 

[Purple Orange]

Even with no investment you still get 2 platforms capable of taking ~340m trainsets at Leeds.

4x340m trainsets is still a lot compared to the current offer.
And if they end up wildly oversubscribed that strengthens the case to go back to the Treasury for more money.


Right now we have 3 11-car Pendolinos to Manchester and 2 9-car IEPs (2x5 has about the same number of seats) to Leeds.

3 x 589 seats + 2 x 611 = 2989 seats per hour.

A 340m IEP-equivalent is going to have something like 13-cars.

A 13-car IEP is going to have capacity of around ~336 (84x4) more seats than a 9-car set.
Which means each set could easily have about 947 seats.

947 x 4 = 3788 seats per hour.

It's still a 26.7% uplift over the status quo - and like I said, if it ends up oversubscribed then the railway authorities have a strong case to go back to the Treasury for platform lengthening at Leeds.

HS2's capacity assesments were for a very long term projection, we are talking about a much more near term scenario here.

HS2 won’t have 340m trains though. They’ll be two pairs of 200m trains to maximise capacity at the HS2 stations from the start. At the very beginning we might see single 200m units used on quieter services but it would be a false economy to procure high speed trains that are designed to last 20-30 years that are the wrong length.

It also doesn’t matter if 4x340m trains are a lot compared to the current offer, it’s the fact that they are less than the business case for HS2 and the expected demand on HS2. These trains are also expected to carry passengers who currently drive and are attracted by the speed, and so a 26% uplift is probably not enough.

 

[HSTEd]

HS2 won’t have 340m trains though. They’ll be two pairs of 200m trains to maximise capacity at the HS2 stations from the start. At the very beginning we might see single 200m units used on quieter services but it would be a false economy to procure high speed trains that are designed to last 20-30 years that are the wrong length.

The original baseline scheme had 200m trainsets coupled for 400m formations.

That does not mean that this is some immutable physical law that it must always be so.

Even the French, who love their coupled 200m formations, have TGV sets that do not fit that length requirement.

And with the modular nature of modern multiple unit high speed trains - they can be made up to 400m when possible by simply buying a handful of extra cars, just like the Pendolinos have done (twice!).

It also doesn’t matter if 4x340m trains are a lot compared to the current offer, it’s the fact that they are less than the business case for HS2 and the expected demand on HS2. These trains are also expected to carry passengers who currently drive and are attracted by the speed, and so a 26% uplift is probably not enough.

It is not enough in the ong term no, but HS2 was not expecting to fill all those trains immediately on service launch.

That will take years of passenger growth, years in which the rail authorities can bully the Treasury into granting the money to make the platforms and trains up to 400m.

And additional capacity improvements East of Huddersfield.

 

[Purple Orange]

The original baseline scheme had 200m trainsets coupled for 400m formations.

That does not mean that this is some immutable physical law that it must always be so.

Even the French, who love their coupled 200m formations, have TGV sets that do not fit that length requirement.

And with the modular nature of modern multiple unit high speed trains - they can be made up to 400m when possible by simply buying a handful of extra cars, just like the Pendolinos have done (twice!).



It is not enough in the ong term no, but HS2 was not expecting to fill all those trains immediately on service launch.

That will take years of passenger growth, years in which the rail authorities can bully the Treasury into granting the money to make the platforms and trains up to 400m.

And additional capacity improvements East of Huddersfield.

There isn’t anything anywhere to suggest it’ll be anything other than combinations of 200m units. Let’s say 340m units were procured and used on Leeds-Manchester-London - you’d not be providing capacity for trans pennine passengers and Manchester-London passengers.

It all depends on what is in the IRP, but unless there is a full new build NPR line between Manchester & Leeds, I cant see London-Leeds being in the mix here.

 

[mwmbwls]

I have a sense of deja-vu all over again. My earliest trips of Eurostar departed from an expensive lean to building next to the main station and diddly dummed its way through Beckenham Junction and Shortlands to Fawkham Junction whence HS1 started. The Tory Government had decided that that was enough to spend. Only later was the clever idea of running a tunnel from Fawkham to Stratford and St Pancras implemented.The benefits of quicker access not only flowed from cross channel traffic but enabled the Javelins to add capacity to the Kent Coast- an SEPR rather than an NPR.

We now have a Government that botched the rebuilding of the Castlefield corridor without resolving the adjacent conflicting junctions.This will inhibit not only HS2 trains but the still unresolved surburban rail pressure into Manchester

 

[Purple Orange]

I have a sense of deja-vu all over again. My earliest trips of Eurostar departed from an expensive lean to building next to the main station and diddly dummed its way through Beckenham Junction and Shortlands to Fawkham Junction whence HS1 started. The Tory Government had decided that that was enough to spend. Only later was the clever idea of running a tunnel from Fawkham to Stratford and St Pancras implemented.The benefits of quicker access not only flowed from cross channel traffic but enabled the Javelins to add capacity to the Kent Coast- an SEPR rather than an NPR.

We now have a Government that botched the rebuilding of the Castlefield corridor without resolving the adjacent conflicting junctions.This will inhibit not only HS2 trains but the still unresolved surburban rail pressure into Manchester

How will castlefield affect HS2?

 

[Bald Rick]

I have a sense of deja-vu all over again. My earliest trips of Eurostar departed from an expensive lean to building next to the main station and diddly dummed its way through Beckenham Junction and Shortlands to Fawkham Junction whence HS1 started. The Tory Government had decided that that was enough to spend. Only later was the clever idea of running a tunnel from Fawkham to Stratford and St Pancras implemented.The benefits of quicker access not only flowed from cross channel traffic but enabled the Javelins to add capacity to the Kent Coast- an SEPR rather than an NPR.

Your memory fails you. HS1 was always ‘decided’ (authorised by Parliament) to be built in full. However it was built in two stages. There were only 4 years when the link at Fawkham Jn was in use (2003-2007). For the first 9 years of Eurostar, they used the classic network from London to the tunnel throughout.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Independent running a piece today which suggests we won't see HS2 2b and NPR will also be diluted

Rail ‘betrayal’ for north and Midlands despite Boris Johnson levelling-up promises

Cities across the north and Midlands set for disappointment as Treasury cuts costs

The government is to offer the north and Midlands a cut-price “bare minimum” of railway upgrades despite Boris Johnson’s promise this week to “level up” the country outside London, The Independent understands.

Local transport chiefs now expect to receive a severely pared-back version of the Northern Powerhouse Rail scheme, and for ministers to effectively shelve plans for a high-speed cross-country link through the east Midlands.

The government has been drawing up plans for new connections outside London in consultation with local leaders – but insiders familiar with discussions now expect virtually every major city across the north and Midlands to be left disappointed.“ It will be bad news for Liverpool, Manchester and West Yorkshire. And not great for the northeast either,” one source said.

Specifically suggesting

To save money, Rishi Sunak’s Treasury is understood to have blocked demands for an ambitious underground through station in Manchester – an omission that will force trains running across the north to reverse at Piccadilly station, creating a capacity bottleneck for the whole line and adding to journey times.

The government is also expected to rule out including Bradford on the direct route of Northern Powerhouse Rail on cost grounds, despite the city having a population of more than half a million people and being situated between Manchester and Leeds.

Bradford, described by West Yorkshire mayor Tracy Brabin as the “greatest opportunity” for the new route, is an obvious candidate for levelling up of the sort trumpeted by Boris Johnson – the city is the fifth most income-deprived district in England.

Does go on to suggest MML electrification will be approved though as a sop but at least its a scheme thats "oven ready" and will be able to deliver improvements in years rather than decades.

 

[Purple Orange]

HS2 phase 2b west isnt a problem in this respect, butbit does seem to be that the huge infrastructure plan has been whittled down to London-Birmingham-Manchester and a branch line through East Manchester.

 

[Wolfie]

Independent running a piece today which suggests we won't see HS2 2b and NPR will also be diluted

Rail ‘betrayal’ for north and Midlands despite Boris Johnson levelling-up promises


Specifically suggesting

Does go on to suggest MML electrification will be approved though as a sop but at least its a scheme thats "oven ready" and will be able to deliver improvements in years rather than decades.

There were similar stories in the Manchester Evening News online yesterday.

 

[adrock1976]

Your memory fails you. HS1 was always ‘decided’ (authorised by Parliament) to be built in full. However it was built in two stages. There were only 4 years when the link at Fawkham Jn was in use (2003-2007). For the first 9 years of Eurostar, they used the classic network from London to the tunnel throughout.

Regarding the first phase of HS1 Fawkham - the Tunnel, did a listed chimney type monument somewhere in Kent had to be carefully dismantled with the bricks numbered, and then rebuilt and resited slightly for one of the tunnels to be bored?

 

[D6130]

Regarding the first phase of HS1 Fawkham - the Tunnel, did a listed chimney type monument somewhere in Kent had to be carefully dismantled with the bricks numbered, and then rebuilt and resited slightly for one of the tunnels to be bored?

Not sure about that, but a listed - and occupied - 15th century timber-framed house somewhere between Ashford and Dollands Moor (Herringe, perhaps?) had to be carefully dismantled and re-erected a couple of hundred yards North of the new line.

 

[Roast Veg]

Independent running a piece today which suggests we won't see HS2 2b and NPR will also be diluted

Is not serving Bradford a "dilution"? It would improve the overall business case for all cross-penine traffic due to the straighter alignment and lack of stop.

 

[Purple Orange]

Is not serving Bradford a "dilution"? It would improve the overall business case for all cross-penine traffic due to the straighter alignment and lack of stop.

Possibly. I reckon the line will only go as far as Huddersfield though, with the rest of the journey on the upgraded four-tracked line.

 

[BrianW]

There were similar stories in the Manchester Evening News online yesterday.

Independent running a piece today which suggests we won't see HS2 2b and NPR will also be diluted

Rail ‘betrayal’ for north and Midlands despite Boris Johnson levelling-up promises


Specifically suggesting

Does go on to suggest MML electrification will be approved though as a sop but at least its a scheme thats "oven ready" and will be able to deliver improvements in years rather than decades.

Entirely as might be expected, including the 'coat trailing' in the press to test reactions and prepare the ground ...

Is not serving Bradford a "dilution"? It would improve the overall business case for all cross-penine traffic due to the straighter alignment and lack of stop.

Possibly. I reckon the line will only go as far as Huddersfield though, with the rest of the journey on the upgraded four-tracked line.

Bradford? 5 MPs for the Borough area I think- Keighley and Shipley both Conservative and electrified; the other three 'who cares'.

Pork barrel; pigs flying; pigs burning? Magic money tree? That's for hospitals, in the fullness of time ... maybe ... now where are those blue wall seats?

 

[Purple Orange]

Entirely as might be expected, including the 'coat trailing' in the press to test reactions and prepare the ground ...


Bradford? 5 MPs for the Borough area I think- Keighley and Shipley both Conservative and electrified; the other three 'who cares'.

Pork barrel; pigs flying; pigs burning? Magic money tree? That's for hospitals, in the fullness of time ... maybe ... now where are those blue wall seats?

Erm... yeah. If you say so.

 

[Roast Veg]

Possibly. I reckon the line will only go as far as Huddersfield though, with the rest of the journey on the upgraded four-tracked line.

Fully prepared to be wrong, but I think the same BCR issue that affects serving Bradford would apply. The question almost becomes "why bother" if the core Leeds to Manchester section isn't pretty quick.

 

[Bald Rick]

but at least its a scheme thats "oven ready"

Some of it is ‘oven ready’, indeed some is shovel ready. But some isn’t.

Reversals take place at Curzon Street only in the sense that they take place at any terminal station. The delay between arriving and departing is not part of any passenger's journey. At Piccadilly, in the scenario that now seems likely, the time for reversal and pathing delay would be part of every journey between London and Leeds. Even if HS2 NE goes ahead in full, the reversal would be part of every journey between Liverpool and Leeds.

Picked this up from the other thread but it needs answering here.

Firstly, you can safely assume that HS2 services and NPR services (on new infrastructure) will be operated with Automatic Train Operation, including autoreverse. A stop at Piccadilly with reversal could be done in a typical 2-3 minute dwell time.

Secondly, and at risk of repeating, it is not a safe assumption that Leeds - Manchester - London will be a thing. It might be, but might not.

Fully prepared to be wrong, but I think the same BCR issue that affects serving Bradford would apply. The question almost becomes "why bother" if the core Leeds to Manchester section isn't pretty quick.

If Leeds - Huddersfield - Manchester is in the region of 30 minutes, which is the target journey time of NPR, then does it matter what infrastructure solution delivers that? Other than it being the best value?

 

[Roast Veg]

If Leeds - Huddersfield - Manchester is in the region of 30 minutes, which is the target journey time of NPR, then does it matter what infrastructure solution delivers that? Other than it being the best value?

I assumed that it did not deliver the target journey time.

As an aside, how does NPR using the existing platforms at Leeds affect the design of upgrades between Sheffield and Leeds (via NPR/HS2/jointly as planned)?

 

[Purple Orange]

Fully prepared to be wrong, but I think the same BCR issue that affects serving Bradford would apply. The question almost becomes "why bother" if the core Leeds to Manchester section isn't pretty quick.

Because it’s not just about speed, but capacity in Manchester too. TPE wouldn’t be running late no distance services from Yorkshire through Castlefield.

Secondly what is considered to be a suitable journey time? TRU will get journey times below 40 minutes, so I expect a new line to Huddersfield to knock something decent off that time again.

 

[Purple Orange]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2021 ==

It doesn’t matter about the eastern branch times if it’s not built. What matters is the comparative journey time between the XC journey times via Sheffield & Derby vs journey times via Manchester. 35 mins will be enough to make people switch.

Make many but not all especially if you have interchanges at either end which would add to the walking.

The situation is not simple and binary but very complex especially when you want to get people to make choices about changing mode (i.e. from car) when there need to be a reasonable difference especially for end to end journeys i.e. away from intermediate locations around stations.
Leeds Birmingham (nearest carparks to stations) can often be quicker than XC.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2021 ==


(re) 4tracking at Guide Bridge and further west and rebuild on approximately the LMS alignment NE of the yard to Stalybridge Station (current bendy alignment is the "LNER" one) vs lots of tunnels and head houses)

What journeys would you expect to see where people would not travel via Manchester? The likelihood is that Leeds-Manchester-Birmingham will be direct without a need for changing train in Manchester.

 

[hwl]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2021 ==




What journeys would you expect to see where people would not travel via Manchester? The likelihood is that Leeds-Manchester-Birmingham will be direct without a need for changing train in Manchester.

Journeys that don't start in the immediate vicinity of inner Leeds /Birmingham near to the stations so there are other changes i.e. if someone has to walk from New Street to Curzon Street to change trains then while it might still be 20mins quicker via Manchester there is also an extra walk too.

Try feeding the numbers the into TAG and see what happens.

 

[Purple Orange]

Journeys that don't start in the immediate vicinity of inner Leeds /Birmingham near to the stations so there are other changes i.e. if someone has to walk from New Street to Curzon Street to change trains then while it might still be 20mins quicker via Manchester there is also an extra walk too.

Try feeding the numbers the into TAG and see what happens.

Chances are there could be a Newcastle-Birmingham via Manchester.

NPR & HS2:

The journey time from Leeds to Birmingham could be 80 minutes; from York the journey time to Birmingham via Manchester could be 102 minutes.

Cross Country:

From Leeds the journey time to Birmingham via Sheffield is 136 minutes; from York the journey time to Birmingham (via Doncaster & Sheffield) is 149 minutes.

That results in a journey time saving of 56 minutes and 47 minutes respectively, which is too significant to not change in Birmingham if you are heading south. Secondly Birmingham passengers will be significantly higher than those heading on to Bristol etc.

 

[Glenn1969]

Chances are there could be a Newcastle-Birmingham via Manchester.

NPR & HS2:

The journey time from Leeds to Birmingham could be 80 minutes; from York the journey time to Birmingham via Manchester could be 102 minutes.

Cross Country:

From Leeds the journey time to Birmingham via Sheffield is 136 minutes; from York the journey time to Birmingham (via Doncaster & Sheffield) is 149 minutes.

That results in a journey time saving of 56 minutes and 47 minutes respectively, which is too significant to not change in Birmingham if you are heading south. Secondly Birmingham passengers will be significantly higher than those heading on to Bristol etc.

Plus a 8 minute minimum time penalty for the reverse at Piccadilly and a 5 minute dwell at the station?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2021 ==

Because it’s not just about speed, but capacity in Manchester too. TPE wouldn’t be running late no distance services from Yorkshire through Castlefield.

Secondly what is considered to be a suitable journey time? TRU will get journey times below 40 minutes, so I expect a new line to Huddersfield to knock something decent off that time again.

non stop it should aim to be 30 minutes to be acceptable given the distance between the 2 cities

 

[Purple Orange]

Plus a 8 minute minimum time penalty for the reverse at Piccadilly and a 5 minute dwell at the station?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2021 ==


non stop it should aim to be 30 minutes to be acceptable given the distance between the 2 cities

The reversal is factored in to the times I quoted, with the Leeds-Manchester section being 30-35 minutes. It would not be an 8 min time penalty plus a 5 min dwell.

 

[ABB125]

The reversal is factored in to the times I quoted, with the Leeds-Manchester section being 30-35 minutes. It would not be an 8 min time penalty plus a 5 min dwell.

Indeed, it should be possible (if there is a driver waiting at the far end of the platform) to reverse entirely within the 5 minute dwell time (or even less).

 

[Purple Orange]

Indeed, it should be possible (if there is a driver waiting at the far end of the platform) to reverse entirely within the 5 minute dwell time (or even less).

Even if it was a through station, there would be a 5 min dwell. Too many people getting on/off - we’re talking about a very significant station on the network, not a call at Litchfield Trent Valley.

 

[HSTEd]

With the number of trains that would be operating through the station, it would probably even be possible to adopt London Underground's traditional practice of rotating drivers between trains and having one waiting at the far end of the platform for the next train.

 

[GoneSouth]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Oct 2021 ==


What journeys would you expect to see where people would not travel via Manchester? The likelihood is that Leeds-Manchester-Birmingham will be direct without a need for changing train in Manchester.

But a change of train AND station in Brum for anybody daft enough to want to travel from Leeds / Manchester / York / Newcastle to Bristol / the south west / Oxford / Reading etc

Or are we keeping a reduced classic XC pattern (not that it can be reduced much more than the current temporary operation) to run on 50 year old trains (by completion date)?

From Leeds the journey time to Birmingham via Sheffield is 136 minutes; from York the journey time to Birmingham (via Doncaster & Sheffield) is 149 minute

It’s currently 118 minutes from Brum to Leeds and very slightly faster downhill on the way back at 113 or 117 minutes.

For anyone travelling beyond Birmingham heading south, the time saved on the faster journey further north will be more than lost in the station switch and waiting around in Birmingham.

Tell the MPs of Gloucestershire, Bristol and Devon that their connectivity will be reduced by HS2 and they won’t be very happy. Ok, maybe not quite true, they won’t give a toss as they are all conservatives and don’t care too much for railways. Let’s hope we keep some SW to NE connectivity, please!

 

[HSTEd]

But a change of train AND station in Brum for anybody daft enough to want to travel from Leeds / Manchester / York / Newcastle to Bristol / the south west / Oxford / Reading etc

Or are we keeping a reduced classic XC pattern (not that it can be reduced much more than the current temporary operation) to run on 50 year old trains (by completion date)?

We could just move XC trains to the South West into Moor Street, which is effectively the same station as Curzon Street?

It's currently much slower, but likely more because of the enormous number of stops than anything else

It’s currently 118 minutes from Brum to Leeds and very slightly faster downhill on the way back at 113 or 117 minutes.

For anyone travelling beyond Birmingham heading south, the time saved on the faster journey further north will be more than lost in the station switch and waiting around in Birmingham.

41 minutes from Birmingham to Manchester Picadilly, 35 minutes or so including reversal time to reach Leeds. So 71 minutes.

How long do you think the change will take to eat up 46 minutes of saving?

Let’s hope we keep some SW to NE connectivity, please!

"Connectivity" (in terms of trains from everywhere to everywhere) at all costs is not a reasonable objective.