Northern Ireland political issues

[Cloud Strife]

I looked and couldn't find a similar thread, so I thought I'd start one on this topic.

Northern Ireland is heading for another election, after the deadline to form a new Executive (i.e. Government) passed. But as one commentator on The Guardian suggests, this is sheer insanity.

Northern Ireland is about to test the dictum that doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insanity.

Political deadlock triggered a forthcoming assembly election that is expected broadly to replicate the result of an election last May and produce the same deadlock. That it will take place in winter underlines the sense of Groundhog Day, except it is an entire region of 1.9 million people reliving the same experience.

Groundhog Day: why another Northern Ireland election looks like insanity

Bar a dramatic surprise, the DUP will continue its boycott and doubts will grow over viability of institutions established by Good Friday agreement

www.theguardian.com

So, I want to ask the explosive question: has the Good Friday Agreement and devolution simply not a viable model for governance of Northern Ireland, and if it isn't, what could it be replaced with? I want to propose two models:

Model 1: Joint Rule

In this model, local councils would be responsible for the vast majority of public services in Northern Ireland. They would have full freedom to cooperate as they see fit, including establishing whatever political structures they feel are viable.

However, Northern Irish law would be created by a joint UK-Irish parliament, which would be elected 50/50 based on the proportion of parties in the UK and Irish Parliaments. This would be an indirectly elected NI Parliament, with MNIPs picked by political parties. Local parties would therefore have little to say on NI Parliament issues, which would end the biggest problem: the DUP's unwillingness to cooperate.

Model 2: Council Rule

Similar to Model 1, local councils would be responsible for all public services. NI law would be created in Westminster and implemented by local councils, unless a supermajority (let's say 2/3rds) of elected councillors vote for an adoption of a law. This would differ from the 1973-1998 system in that local politicians would have law making powers, but with mandatory cross-community support.

IMO, the best alternative is neither of these models, but rather to create a system so that if the largest community party refuses to join the executive, then the next largest party (in this case, Alliance) can take the deputy First Minister job. We could then create an additional deputy First Minister job that would go to the next largest community party (in this case, the UUP), which would end the deadlock and allow a functioning government to be established.

It is plainly ridiculous that the DUP (with 25 out of 90 seats) can block the formation of a new Executive in NI.

 

[Busaholic]

Apologies, but I don't want to answer your questions directly, not because I have no interest in them but because I don't feel I have sufficient knowledge of the situation, and have never been to Northern Ireland.

What I do know following things from afar is that the most highly regarded N.I. Minister of recent times was Julian Smith, who seemed to have the respect of both sides and was achieving things there before Johnson replaced him. He was a prominent supporter of Sunak's candidature from the start and it seems a great shame that he was not brought back, especially as Chris Heaton-Harris now seems intent on playing silly partisan games.

 

[spyinthesky]

I too would not like to answer due to complete pickling of my brain on trying to understand how democracy works.
I am not sure if it could be best answered with a Carry on film or a Python sketch:

 

[WAB]

With Northern Ireland, I suspect a United Ireland is inevitable in the long run. This could take the form of a devolved Northern Ireland á la Scotland; this would rely on both sides to work constructively and competently, or for people who can be trusted to do their job to be voted in. Sadly there is little sign of any of the aforementioned scenarios coming any time soon. The alternative form is complete unification under Dublin rule, where Stormont exists only on an interim basis until NI is integrated into Dublin rule (which may take a while - people from the north and the south have less in common than you might think).

There is a narrative amongst certain republicans that given the oppression of Catholics and republicans in Northern Ireland, and the incompatibility of certain parts of Northern Irish culture and community, that few or no compromises should be made, and anyone not happy with that should go back to England given their ancestors came from there in the first place (although they mainly came from Scotland, a nuance often missed). Even those who are more moderate are not quite sure how they'd sort out the issues of anthems, flags and even whether they are joining the Republic or are they becoming a whole new state?

The alternative is direct rule from Westminster, which in its current state would be less than ideal. Devolution is still in vogue and reversing it would be seen as contentious, and frankly GB are not that keen to keep Northern Ireland. The fact that some degree of UK-Ireland powersharing seems to have been discussed suggests that the UK government aren't keen on direct rule. Furthermore, as Sinn Fein refuse to sit in Parliament, around half a million of the electorate would have no democratic representation beyond their immediate district. NI is being such a pain in the backside, and is across the water from us so many in GB have shifted from ambivalence to slight negativity towards NI.

I think the idea of councils having more responsibility is a non-starter, in that it would create a complex web of differing laws, taxes and provision levels. Remember, five London boroughs have a larger total population than the 11 (previously 26) council areas in Northern Ireland. Despite having fewer responsibilites than their GB counterparts, they still manage to be a political sh*tshow like Stormont and I suspect they'd be even less up to the task. The increase in civil servants necessary to run this more fragmented system would increase NI's dependence on civil servants for employment, and increase the subsidy England and Scotland have to stump up to keep NI going (unless the EU despite their economic woes suddenly feel generous).

Short term, altering the Good Friday Agreement to amend powersharing so that obstructionists could be skipped over if needed would seem the simplest option, although the US and the EU may not like it. Privately, Sinn Fein may not like it either as they also refused to nominate a Deputy First Minister as they were upset about the DUP objecting to the Irish Language Act (which would grant official recognition to Irish, provide rights to access public services in Irish including schooling, introduce bilingual signs etc.) and held the operation of NI to ransom on the same basis as the DUP. It might reduce the dominance and thus vote share of the DUP and Sinn Fein.

Ultimately, this election will do little to change anything, and Northern Ireland will continue to zombie on in its current state until someone bites the bullet and reforms the place. The demographics are shifting, and it won't be long until there is a pro-United Ireland majority. Northern Ireland is a contrived concept, and keeps needing open heart surgery to keep it going. How long before the doctors throw the towel in?

 

[Flying Snail]

Often the idea that there are no simple solutions is true, it is certainly true for many of the wider issues in NI however there is a very simple solution to this problem; keep the current power-sharing structure but put a clause that if it cannot form a government within a set period due to one group boycotting, it reverts to a standard majority parliament for the remaining term only with those elected members who are willing to participate.

The prospect of the other side having absolute control will soon put an end to this utter nonsense that there is a constant threat of bringing the whole show to a halt by any one side willing to walk out. This ability being used as the ultimate weapon was entirely predictable to be used liberally by two intransigent groups and should never have been an available strategy. The NI assembly will never be any use as long as this nuclear option is available.