Northern Future fleet updates

[brad465]

Really dragging this out if that is correct.

Do the DFT / Treasury not realize that can kicking only adds to the overall cost?

Uttering the words "long term investment" inside the Treasury is about as taboo as saying "Lord Voldemort" in the Wizarding world.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just a gentle reminder that this thread should discuss actual updates only.
For speculation and suggestions please use this thread:

Northern Future fleet speculation

Moderator note: split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/northern-future-fleet.291177/page-5 The main thing that confuses me about this order is why they aren't going more aggressively in on batteries. If they can kick the infrastructure can down the road by keeping the 158s and 170s in...

www.railforums.co.uk

Thanks

 

[Geeves]

Future commercial contracts for DfT and partners

Listing of upcoming Department for Transport (DfT) and associated bodies commercial contracts – known as the commercial pipeline – for which bidders may apply.

www.gov.uk

User Watcherzero has helpfully pulled out some figures. I don't think I've seen before

Total cost for Northern phase one is 5.4 billion over 8 years including maintenance

Total carriages in phase 1 468 carriages formed into various sizes to make 132 trains. The final option for a pretty staggering 450 trains! The most expensive train procurement in UK railway history.

 

[Snow1964]

Lot 1: - EMU required for passenger service 2029-30 with an estimated requirement of 12 x 3-vehicle units.
Lot 2: - MMU required for passenger service 2030-31 with an estimated requirement of 48 x 3-vehicle units and 64 x 4-vehicle units.
Lot 3: - BEMU required for passenger service 2032 with an estimated initial requirement of 8 x 4-vehicle units.

468 carriages

But £5.4bn covers other stuff too, depots, platform works etc.
If it was just trains, would be whopping £11.5m per vehicle

 

[FrontSideBus]

You also have to add the cost of making all of Northern's stations (which is a lot) compatible with these new level boarding rolling stock. I bet that wont be cheap considering a lot of them are heritage stations that have strict aesthetical requirements!

 

[quantinghome]

You also have to add the cost of making all of Northern's stations (which is a lot) compatible with these new level boarding rolling stock. I bet that wont be cheap considering a lot of them are heritage stations that have strict aesthetical requirements!

How much was spent on making Anglia's stations compatible with level boarding? Not a lot, because the train doors are designed around the platforms, not the other way round.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What exactly are the services that the 12x3-car EMUs are supposed to deliver?
It it just the Northern services planned for the TRU route (ie Pic/Vic-Huddersfield-Dewsbury-Leeds-York stoppers)?
Has any draft service plan been produced? Could there be a Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds-York stopper in there?

 

[YorksLad12]

What exactly are the services that the 12x3-car EMUs are supposed to deliver?
It it just the Northern services planned for the TRU route (ie Pic/Vic-Huddersfield-Dewsbury-Leeds-York stoppers)?
Has any draft service plan been produced? Could there be a Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds-York stopper in there?

Why? Who would would want to take 3 hours making a trip that could be done in 2? Or is there a demand from East Garforth to Warrington?

It's more likely to be Liverpool-Manchester, Manchester-Huddersfield-Castleford-York and Huddersfield-Leeds as now. Although, I confess, I'd like to see the Leeds service extended to Marsden, if there's room for two stoppers per hour all day.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Why? Who would would want to take 3 hours making a trip that could be done in 2?

Obviously no-one. But that's not the point of a stopping service. There may be people wanting to go from, say Dewsbury to Luiverpool or York who don't want to change trains.

And stringing together several stopping services means fewer layovers at busy stations like Leeds and Manchester Piccadilly

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

OK so forget Liverpool. But where do Northern plan to run these EMUs? Castleford is out as it is not being wired.
Recently I did York-Leeds on a Northern stopper to Blackpool via the Calder Valley.
Will this still run as diesel under the wires, or will it be chopped at Leeds with EMUs from Huddersfield/Bradford FS/Doncaster doing Leeds-York?
An MMU/BEMU could do York-Blackpool with traction changes at Leeds and Preston.

 

[Stephen42]

The point I am trying to make is, the longer they take to appraise the bids, the higher the risk any suggested production date will slip, because factories will get other orders for train parts. And cannot complete a train if parts are not available.

This week Alstom has accepted orders for additional 36 Adessia stream commuter trains for Portugal (taking total ordered in October upto 153 trains) and all with accelerated delivery schedule. Today Siemens has announced extra 17 ice3 Neo (taking total to 90 trains) for Germany.

It doesn't take a genius to work out these sort of orders and accelerated delivery schedules have now taken up some component manufacturing capacity. I suspect Northern are going to discover the delivery dates suggested in bids are no longer possible because others (in Europe) have locked in component production slots.

I hope I am wrong, but the way the procurement is going with nothing yet signed, I really cannot see anything getting into service before 2030, maybe even 2032

I agree that it's a risk and ideally the process would be further ahead than it is. My point is the procurement will be incredibly complex and trying to get a manufacturer deal signed quickly could easily turn into a false economy.

RSS must be something like Rolling Stock Strategy in the below, bolding mine. Looking at recent notices from Northern it's clear there are significant risks and work still to do:
Newton Heath RSS Feasibility - Contracted awarded £287k excluding VAT

Assessments of Newton Heath's current capacity and capabilities show significant constraints that would prevent the planned timetable for new trains being achieved. 5 key issues have been identified and this project is proposed to evaluate the feasibility and define the optimum option to resolve these issues. This lays the foundation for future design and construction projects to be established upon completion of this feasibility and option selection project.

In order to identify the optimum solution to address the issues identified at Newton Heath above, a feasibility and option selection project is required.

Estimated to be carried out by September (possible extension to December)

Heaton RSS Feasibility Phase 1 - In procurement

In order to identify the optimum solution to address the issues identified at Heaton, an external supplier will be procured to produce the following deliverables

Estimated £261k excluding VAT, to be complete by November.

New Rolling Stock Procurement Financial Support Services - Contract awarded £351k excluding VAT

A new contract has been established to support NTL's financial evaluation of the new rolling stock procurement.

The scope of services will include:
-Development of a Whole Life Cost Model
-Rolling Stock Tender Assurance
-Fleet Financier Procurement Invitation to Negotiation development support
-Fleet Manufacturer Procurement Evaluation
-Fleet Financier Procurement Evaluation
-Final Business Case support and assurance

Dates not given, awarded in February this year. Gives an idea of some of the activities still remaining.

Put together, I can't imagine anyone signing off a fleet order without knowing the depots will be ready to support the new trains. That's part of the Piccadilly line new fleet issues and a programme with significant overspend already. Similarly if any rolling stock changes are needed (from cost modelling or technical requirements from depots or elsewhere) it's much easier to do prior to agreeing a contract after which will be in a much worse negotiating position e.g. HS2.

Future commercial contracts for DfT and partners

Listing of upcoming Department for Transport (DfT) and associated bodies commercial contracts – known as the commercial pipeline – for which bidders may apply.

www.gov.uk

User Watcherzero has helpfully pulled out some figures. I don't think I've seen before

Total cost for Northern phase one is 5.4 billion over 8 years including maintenance

Total carriages in phase 1 468 carriages formed into various sizes to make 132 trains. The final option for a pretty staggering 450 trains! The most expensive train procurement in UK railway history.

I'd treat those spreadsheets with a vat of salt. The 8 year one has 1.1 billion, the 15 year one is the 5.4 billion. The 15 year one procurement start date doesn't correspond to any of the notices they've issued and the financier one was 16 or 20 years not 15. Typically the expected contract value is the maximum value if all extensions and options were exercised. My suspicion is one entry is intended to be the manufacturer and the other the financier but the data has got jumbled up over time. It's plausible the 1.1 billion is the phase 1 manufacture cost and the 5.4 is on the basis of all 450 trains being ordered.

 

[3RDGEN]

But where do Northern plan to run these EMUs?

The initial 12 * 3 car EMU's are to work the TPE local services which Northern have/will take over, so if TRU is on time from mid 2030 Huddersfield - Leeds and Leeds to York stoppers and much later Manchester - Hudds stoppers. That's why the delivery is needed for early 2030 otherwise there's no EMU's to take advantage of TRU works.

They will not need all 12 to start with but Hudds - Leeds goes to 2tph, at some point, so that's 3 or 4 units and Leeds - York needs another 2 units. They are only 3 cars so they may double up some peak services to 6 cars perhaps?

 

[FrontSideBus]

How much was spent on making Anglia's stations compatible with level boarding? Not a lot, because the train doors are designed around the platforms, not the other way round.

Have you been around Northern's network? Pretty much every station is at a different level.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Have you been around Northern's network? Pretty much every station is at a different level.

But unless any are HIGHER than whatever height (~760mm if I recall correctly), it'll be an improvement.
Especially at big steps like Hindley, which will be significantly shortened.

 

[Snow1964]

Have you been around Northern's network? Pretty much every station is at a different level.

Just because historically they all built rather randomly, doesn't prevent them being altered. In most cases they are built of brick or stone and solid, so not a case of rebuilding a flimsy wooden structure

These days there are platform edge sections with the yellow warning bumps already built in to rear edge. As long as platforms are being raised it is easy to install them during non traffic hours (more a case of how many extra bricks/blocks are needed as spacers under them) so platform edge is neat and at correct height.

In some cases might have to shut a platform for a few days (or during a weekend closure that is happening anyway) to do the work. Along with laying surface behind the edge stones. It is not like Northern have lots of heritage buildings with multiple doorways in use at many stations so raising platforms causes problems with building access. In some cases might be easier to extend platforms at same time (and if regularly running 4car, 6car trains at peak hour, it is better if they fit in platform to spread the load along length of train and speed up boarding time (and of of course canopies instead of shelters help with this timekeeping too, otherwise everyone tries to get in one door when raining)

Clearly whilst improving the station, some might get ramps, new lights, new seats or better shelters, but that shouldn't really be part of cost of fixing platform height historic discrepancy. A lot of that would have happened anyway over next 40 years (during life of new train)

Should be doing worse platforms first, probably got 5 years to fix these before first trains enter service. And teams doing these on a rolling basis will soon become experienced and slick (and more cost effective) than doing them piecemeal.

 

[FrontSideBus]

That's all true but when has anything done with the railways ever been simple, cheap and on time? A perfect example is the fiasco of Broad Green or even the procurement of the rolling stock in the first place that this thread is about.

 

[tfw756rider]

Northern has the prototype units (from 1984)

Yes

some early 150/0 (from 1985)

150/1s you mean. 150001 and 150002 are the two 1984 prototype units, and the other "150/0s" are 150/1s with half a 150/2 in the middle.

and the first part of 150/2 build (from 1986).

Northern 156s date from 1987-88. (The build continued into 1989, but 1989 build ones are in Scotland)

For completeness the small fleet of 155s were built in 1987-88

Yes

 

[mpthomson]

But unless any are HIGHER than whatever height (~760mm if I recall correctly), it'll be an improvement.
Especially at big steps like Hindley, which will be significantly shortened.

If any are higher then it leads to an possibly even larger problem getting off, as people don't expect to have to step UP to a plaform from a train.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If any are higher then it leads to an possibly even larger problem getting off, as people don't expect to have to step UP to a plaform from a train.

UK standard platform height is 915mm. I doubt any are higher except the ones specifically designed to be so, which is basically just the Elizabeth Line core, Heathrow and the Harrington humps in the Thameslink core (plus HS2 captive stations, but they aren't built yet). Many will be lower and still require a ramp for now.

 

[Pete_uk]

Will the new trains have any capacity to be a few centimeters wider than the current 150s?

 

[Bornin1980s]

Will the new trains have any capacity to be a few centimeters wider than the current 150s?

Probably not. The 150 is already one of our widest trains, partly because of its 20m carriage length. The new carriages will be 23m long, and would have to be slightly narrower.

 

[FrontSideBus]

Do we think they will be future proofed by being ordered with or "fitted for but not with" ETCS?

 

[Snow1964]

Do we think they will be future proofed by being ordered with or "fitted for but not with" ETCS?

Be a bit stupid not to pre-wire them even for ECTS if the electronic box isn't added. These trains are likely to be around to nearer 2070

Thinking in reverse, by time these trains enter service (around 2030-33), how many lines will still have basic AWS only, rather than having either TPWS or ETCS, so should AWS be dropped, and just TPWS and ECTS be fitted.

 

[skyhigh]

Do we think they will be future proofed by being ordered with or "fitted for but not with" ETCS?

They will be, it would be stupid to order the 195/331s with provision but not these new units.

 

[D365]

Do we think they will be future proofed by being ordered with or "fitted for but not with" ETCS?

The last I checked, all Lots will be fitted with ETCS.

 

[Geeves]

Be a bit stupid not to pre-wire them even for ECTS if the electronic box isn't added. These trains are likely to be around to nearer 2070

Thinking in reverse, by time these trains enter service (around 2030-33), how many lines will still have basic AWS only, rather than having either TPWS or ETCS, so should AWS be dropped, and just TPWS and ECTS be fitted.

It's unlikely that the Settle to Carlisle, Cumbrian Coast and many others will be seeing cab signalling any time soon.

I doubt the cost to fit AWS and other safety systems is much compared to the overall scheme

 

[43096]

Be a bit stupid not to pre-wire them even for ECTS if the electronic box isn't added. These trains are likely to be around to nearer 2070

Thinking in reverse, by time these trains enter service (around 2030-33), how many lines will still have basic AWS only, rather than having either TPWS or ETCS, so should AWS be dropped, and just TPWS and ECTS be fitted.

TPWS is not fitted to every signal (except in certain niche cases) so AWS is still required on all vehicles. ETCS has barely started its implementation: AWS/TPWS is going to be required for a very long time.

 

[Snow1964]

A interesting snippet from Stadler financial results, which might be relevant to a Northern order if Stadler is on the shortlist, is that it's looking like factory production capacity might soon be more limited if this massive order for Berlin goes ahead

Stadler expects an order of up to 1,500 metro cars by Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe (BVG) by the end of December 2026. The same applies to the contract awarded by S-Bahn Berlin for over 350 trains. The residents of Berlin have been waiting for new S-Bahn trains since 2020. The deadline for the tender has been postponed repeatedly for years.

https://www.stadlerrail.com/en/media/media-releases/stadler-increases-profitability-and-sales