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Northern Future fleet updates
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BurtonM
Member
I really don't get why this is OK.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Interestingly that's the age when the Class 101s finally bowed out!
InkyScrolls
On Moderation
Because they're still perfectly usable trains.
Rail Quest
Member
Can I ask, why are the time scales so far in advance for this order? It feels like Northern have been talking about this prospective order for years and the project is probably going to last another ten year. This feels, if anecdotally, to be a far slower process than any other order I've seen of any size.
And 2030 is start of delivery. If the last of the units make it to the mid '30s as mentioned up thread for expected implementation, they've got a good shot at reaching 50!
Assuming this refers to the 15x (correct me if wrong): they may be for now, but will they in their final expected years? I experienced (as in, I was directly disrupted by) two sprinters last year that failed with mechanical issues. As they get older, one can only expect this to become more frequent. And this is all without considering the many issues, from a passenger perspective, with the sprinters, including no air con, blisteringly loud engines, and hit or miss seat quality.
D365
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The invitation to tender only went out last year (2024). Northern is the first TOC to stipulate level boarding and bi/tri-mode capability for an entire fleet - as opposed to Greater Anglia and TfW that went for mixed new train fleets.
The technical and project management consultants that Northern is employing should have the benefit of hindsight - specifically, the new fleet introductions at TfW, SWR, WMT etc - to understand the complexity of specifying and developing novel, tailor-made rolling stock. I suspect that they are already aware of this, which is why they are not rushing into awarding contracts without doing their due diligence.
And, given where we are now, there’s not much alternative.
I mean, in the sense that they start, stop and have something that vaguely resembles a seat. By that logic, the same arguement could be applied to pacers, 101s or even mk1s and a kettle.
Really, the conversation shouldn't be focused on if the train is functional, but more around what alternatives are available. By 2030 is it really appropriate for commuters paying a hefty whack to be sat on a too cold (or far too hot in summer) 1980s train, thats louder than any car or bus and offers a really poor standard of accomodation, even in comparison to these other modes?
If northern had offered a substantial refurbishment on these units, maybe it would just about cut the mustard. Sadly, all we got was new seat covers. This means youre still sat on the floor, still awfully uncomfortable, still having to play footsie/kneesie with anyone sat opposite.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
The ones we have down here on the Marston Vale might be OK at stopping but aren't very good at starting at times - not at all unusual to have a diagram out because they can't manage to get any more than one out of three going. That might be because we got the runts of the litter, but I suspect there are quite a few with those problems these days...
The 150's may yet make 50 years, it's a basic fleet which is having significant corrosion repairs carried out now so they may not be at the front of the queue for withdrawal if the 156's are in a worse condition when the new stock does arrive from 2030 onwards. If the contract is signed late 2026 then you would hope for late 2030 early 2031 for the first units in service, don't forget the 150/1 was 1985 the 166 was 1993 so BR took around eight years to deliver the 15x/16x fleets, can't see it been any quicker to replace those fleets today.
The big issue is the new trains will be far more expensive than the current ones and there's going to be more of them so that means an uplift in subside for Northern. The same will apply to Chiltern and GWR and there isn't the money so the contracts get kicked down the road in the hope something happens.
Re reliability it actually improved according to the data in the "Golden Spanners" awards, 24/25 5518 miles per failure compared to 5023 in 23/24.
Snow1964
Established Member
Taking extended time to do due diligence, creates secondary risks, so there is a trade off.
The main risks include :
- tender prices only valid for certain period, then expire, and go up
- factory capacity and/or equipment manufacture is taken up by another operator (including those abroad), so build slot timescales slip
- ordering later causes existing fleet to need more costly life extension work
- ordering later means longer period of obsolete spare parts or limited availability of parts for existing fleet, so servicing and repair costs skyrocket.
There is also the downside of having to offer customers noisy old trains, with smelly exhausts, and poor heating and cooling for years longer. They struggle to compete with modern cars and buses in comfort and ambience stakes. Unfortunately in the era of social media and misinformation, tatty trains on one area can easily get associated with UK rail fleet as a whole and discourage passengers nationally.
The keep kicking the order into the long grass approach, has lots of indirect consequences (needing higher subsidy) that Northern seem unable to explain to DfT and Treasury.
Bakerloo is running an intensive urban service with 50 year old units today with no confirmed replacement plan, I think 150s can do a few more years trundling up and down the Buxton branch yet...
Rail Quest
Member
That's quite interesting and unexpected, but positive news. Let's hope that figure remains consistent over the coming years.
Completely agree with this. Having lived recently on a line purely formed of sprinters and now moving to one commuting on far more modern trains, I could see it being a deciding factor for some people who can commute either by train or car. It's important to consider what customers think about the trains themselves, and I frequently hear people moaning about the quality of Northern's trains, which I wouldn't on other operators.
Just because that is the status quo on the Bakerloo doesn't mean it's acceptable for it to happen at all. I would suggest it's a fair comment to say both the Bakerloo line stock and the 150s need a proper plan to be replaced swiftly.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
In any case DMUs are more complex than EMUs and the engine tends to shake them to bits. Hamburg's S-Bahn was still operating 1937 EMUs in 1999 (Class/Baureihe 471/871) and they were fine if somewhat dated having their original wooden bench interiors.
TheSmiths82
Member
I imagine people spend more time on the Buxton trains too than on the Bakerloo trains where might only be on them for a few minutes. I personally find all the Sprinter trains to be noisy and uncomfortable. A refurbished 158 can be OK though.
tfw756rider
On Moderation
Yeah, fair enough
Although I should point out that "170/4s" doesn't necessarily mean the late-build 2004-05 170s. In fact, of all the 170 subclasses, subclass 170/4 actually covers the longest production span, with a few batches from 1999 to 2001, from 2003 to 2004 and from 2004 to 2005 (even though all of Northern's are from the third batch).
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Not London
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Maybe you don't remember the intended DMU order for Northern and FGW (maybe others too) in the late 2000s, which reached the stage of full bids from manufacturers but was pulled by the (Labour) DfT just at the point orders were to be placed.
This was aimed at removing the Pacers from the network.
I think the logic was that the electrification just authorised (NW and GW) would cascade enough stock to eliminate the Pacers.
It took another decade for that to happen.
Even today, with rail finances as they are, there is no certainty that new orders will happen, or on any particular phasing or timescale.
Meanwhile the class 350/2 fleet sits idle.
Class15
Established Member
The Bakerloo line trains are over 10 years older than the 150s, and have got even less far than Northern in the process of replacing them.
The Class 156 - they currently make up about 30% of the stock on the Buxton line, so if they go first, the line still needs new stock. We rarely see a 150/2 these days.
xotGD
Established Member
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New stock in Yorkshire, send the 150s over to Buxton.
Snow1964
Established Member
If you want to talk about age, ORR did a report (which is now 18 months old, as it is based on fleets at 31 March 2024)
Northern had 4th oldest fleet at average 23.6 years old, and as they haven't really replaced anything (except with few secondhand 323s) they are likely to be average of 25 years old now.
Passenger rolling stock: why has average age decreased? | Office of Rail and Road
We explain what factors influence changes in the average age of rolling stock.
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D365
Veteran Member
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Class 156 is also undergoing significant corrosion repairs.
themiller
Established Member
The Bakerloo trains are electric and so have a much longer life expectancy than diesel engined stock!
tfw756rider
On Moderation
I was only aware of Bombardier's bid, and I thought that would've only been 61 172s (42x 3-car and 19x 4-car) that would've been split into allocations for Northern Rail, First Great Western and First TransPennine Express.
Whereas, after the another decade had passed, Northern alone got 58 195s (2-car and 3-car units, but still).
D365
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I suspect that the 172s alone wouldn’t have been enough to replace the Pacers. A number of Pacer units were put into storage as a result of the Oldham loop conversion to Metrolink. But were pressed back into service a few years later, initially with GWR and then Northern again.
bramling
Veteran Member
If you want to talk about age, ORR did a report (which is now 18 months old, as it is based on fleets at 31 March 2024)
Northern had 4th oldest fleet at average 23.6 years old, and as they haven't really replaced anything (except with few secondhand 323s) they are likely to be average of 25 years old now.
Passenger rolling stock: why has average age decreased? | Office of Rail and Road
We explain what factors influence changes in the average age of rolling stock.www.orr.gov.uk
One take from the linked data is that there doesn’t seem to be that much of a correlation between London area and age of fleet. Some London area TOCs have a greater proportion of new rolling stock, while others don’t. If one were to include LU, the average for the London area would increase dramatically due to the Bakerloo and Piccadilly fleets, and the Central fleet is starting to get on as well.
GWR managed to almost polish the proverbial turd when they refurbed their 150s. They’re I think all 2 x 2 seating with some tables. They couldn’t sadly do anything about the painfully loud engine noise though!
Can the units last that long? We hear on this forum that the 150's are "falling to bits". Is this members being overdramatic and actually they are perfectly capable of seeing another 6-8 years service- depending on when any new trains are ready. The 155s and 156s are also pretty old.
There seems to be a real contradiction on the forum, either the Sprinters, especially 150s are end of life meaning they have little chance of survival till 2031 or not. I struggle to know what comments I should take seriously and which posts are "for effect". Or does a massive overhaul answer all the problems?
MichaelTrains
Member
The 150s used on the Bradford to Huddersfield’s and Halifax to Hull’s are in a really bad way.
I’m sure they are safety compliant but the rust and holes on the sides of some of them are showing just how old and worn out these units are.
I think Northern thought they'd get away with just the new seat covers.
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