Northern and TPE Consultation Document

[LNW-GW Joint]

When you say 'no new electric trains', is that 'you may use 319s but not new build' or is it 'there will be no wires for you to use within the franchise period' ?

Apparently no wires on TP North "until 2021" (ie a 3-year delay).
It begins to look as though some significant infrastructure work is going to be necessary on the route to get the promised 6tph capacity.
On the NW scheme (which also has problems), the assumption is that TPE/Northern will have to make do with cascaded EMUs when more wires go up.
Unless there's a formula including 387s, that means 319s.

I'm paraphrasing the MR item, but they are usually close to the mark.
To me it suggests management contracts until the infrastructure and rolling stock issues are sorted.

On the TP North issue, ORR has put out some hints in its rejection today of the GNWR application to run between Manchester and Leeds.
It says this about the 6th path (whoever operates it):

94. Network Rail said that early high level analysis indicated that reduced signalling headways would be required as a minimum to mitigate the performance impact of a further fast train on the Trans Pennine route.
We note this work could be included in an expanded electrification project, adding to the uncertainty around the scope, timing and costs of the project.

That suggests they are looking for a more comprehensive TP electrification project on a new timescale, rather than simply being "late" with the current one.

 

[thealexweb]

No more EMUs for TPE? TPE needs two more units right now just to run an entirely electric Scottish service let alone increasing capacity.

 

[Des Iroman]

There's no way any accurate bids could be made without a concrete date for electrification, so if the MR article is correct it just means bid on assuming (for figures) keeping the current fleet, and if / when electrification happens this will have to bw negotiated separately (e.g. as with the 350s part way through a franchise).

 

[CdBrux]

That suggests they are looking for a more comprehensive TP electrification project on a new timescale, rather than simply being "late" with the current one.

It was speculated somewhere on these forums that the ongoing work around 'HS3' may be influencing the TP electrification thinking in addition to being more cautious after the current project overruns.

 

[northwichcat]

Unless there's a formula including 387s, that means 319s.

I thought the rolling stock examples used in the electrification proposals are illustrative. Yes they used 319s for North West and 319s are coming but for North TPE they had no idea what electric rolling stock would be used so it was originally based on using 333s on stopping services and 380s on express services.

No more EMUs for TPE? TPE needs two more units right now just to run an entirely electric Scottish service let alone increasing capacity.

One idea in both the Northern Hub and TPE consultation is for a service pattern revision and Liverpool portions on alternate services. So for example the departures from Manchester Airport would be:
10:00 Edinburgh
11:00 Edinburgh
12:00 Glasgow
13:00 Edinburgh
14:00 Edinburgh
15:00 Glasgow

The 10:00, 12:00 and 14:00 would have portions from Liverpool attached to them, while the rest wouldn't.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I thought the rolling stock examples used in the electrification proposals are illustrative. Yes they used 319s for North West and 319s are coming but for North TPE they had no idea what electric rolling stock would be used so it was originally based on using 333s on stopping services and 380s on express services.

One idea in both the Northern Hub and TPE consultation is for a service pattern revision and Liverpool portions on alternate services. So for example the departures from Manchester Airport would be:
10:00 Edinburgh
11:00 Edinburgh
12:00 Glasgow
13:00 Edinburgh
14:00 Edinburgh
15:00 Glasgow

The 10:00, 12:00 and 14:00 would have portions from Liverpool attached to them, while the rest wouldn't.

I should think all that is in the bin now, along with the Network Rail RUSs.
If TPE are having to defer an EMU order until the TP North/Northern Hub situation clarifies, we will be in a world where IEP is in production.
There might even be a tilting solution on the WCML (developed for the 2016 bidders for ICWC).

 

[northwichcat]

I should think all that is in the bin now, along with the Network Rail RUSs.
If TPE are having to defer an EMU order until the TP North/Northern Hub situation clarifies, we will be in a world where IEP is in production.
There might even be a tilting solution on the WCML (developed for the 2016 bidders for ICWC).

I think there are two options for the TPE Scottish proposal to go ahead as planned:
1. Bidders propose around 18 x 5 car IEP trains as an add-on to the existing IEP order.
2. Bidders propose keeping the 350/4s and taking on 8 of the 350/1s or 350/3s. LM could secure replacement EMUs in the form of 321/2s from either Govia Thameslink or Northern. Not ideal for either TPE or LM but a cheap solution to provide additional services.

 

[Haydn1971]

How often do the TPE 350's run as 2x4 car units ?

 

[northwichcat]

How often do the TPE 350's run as 2x4 car units ?

There's 8 diagrams for Manchester Airport to Scotland services.

Monday-Thursday there's 1 x 8 car 350 diagram and 7 x 4 car 350 diagrams

Friday and Saturday there's 2 x 8 car 350 diagrams, 5 x 4 car 350 diagrams and 1 x 6 car 185 diagram.

(There's more strengthened North TPE services Mon-Thurs)

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I think there are two options for the TPE Scottish proposal to go ahead as planned:
1. Bidders propose around 18 x 5 car IEP trains as an add-on to the existing IEP order.
2. Bidders propose keeping the 350/4s and taking on 8 of the 350/1s or 350/3s. LM could secure replacement EMUs in the form of 321/2s from either Govia Thameslink or Northern. Not ideal for either TPE or LM but a cheap solution to provide additional services.

Just thinking out loud here, but if the West Coast Conncect franchise goes ahead then could the TPE Scottish services become part of that franchise and would there be enough 350's to operate all the services?

 

[WatcherZero]

I think there are two options for the TPE Scottish proposal to go ahead as planned:
1. Bidders propose around 18 x 5 car IEP trains as an add-on to the existing IEP order.
2. Bidders propose keeping the 350/4s and taking on 8 of the 350/1s or 350/3s. LM could secure replacement EMUs in the form of 321/2s from either Govia Thameslink or Northern. Not ideal for either TPE or LM but a cheap solution to provide additional services.

Even earlier in the year before the electrification delays emerged Hitachi said they had received interest in a regional or commuter bi-mode IEP which could be built with a pantograph and diesel engines and have the diesels removed mid life. A few months extra time could be generated by the Government asking the bidders to source rolling stock quotes rather than specifying stock and the electrification delays could turn out not to be as severe as Modern Rail claims since the Governments asking them to speed up delivery. A solution that would only narrowly delay electrification might be to build the masts with a future revised track layout in mind and simply restring the wires later with the capacity enhancement track alterations delivered in later blockades as is being proposed on the Windermere line. You wouldn't get 6tph from day one but you would still be able to operate EMU and cascade the 185's.

I think it unlikely Bi-mode stock specifically for Scotland would be procured now as HS2 would result in a large amount of surplus classic compatibles that needed a home at the end of the next decade once phase 2 was ready and some redeployed Pendolinos at the start of phase 1 (Of course HS2 could end up being delayed as well creating a whole new set of problems). I wouldn't totally rule out a joint order with different spec similar to 350/3 and 350/4 to make a viable minimum order size but the requirements would be totally different so I don't think it likely.

If 185's are concentrated on TPE north as suggested and cant be cascade to replace the 170's which are lost there is a requirement for something two car to replace the 170's. I think this is where the bi-mode IEP could come in (off the shelf design just specifying different bodyshell length and interior, it would take other manufacturers some years to develop a bi-mode) but it would be better and cheaper to have them as four car rather than two car, a kind of 100mph 158 analogue that would still be useful even if south TPE was electrified on Northerns diesel lines. The alternative could be shortened HST sets to operate north TPE and allow some more 185's to be used on Scotland in the interim though not sure where they would find the sets that early as with GWML HST's going to Scotland would be 2018 before significant East Coast HST's became available.

Of course if more IEP are ordered they would need to be delivered quick and its likely that would mean before Newton was ready so they would be built in Japan.

Plan C might be to go ahead with the D78 conversion *shudder* and start a cascade of D78>Pacer>Sprinter>Turbostar between Nortern and TPE, however without electrification I cant see any Pacers being withdrawn and I still don't like the D78 idea. Modern Rail is claiming that there will be so many freed up electrics by Thameslink with no home that leasing costs may be as little as a pound so I think Pacers and D78 are both ultimately doomed and its unlikely there will be more pure EMU ordered until that supply glut is worked through so I still believe we will ultimately end up with 319's on most Northern services and 387's replacing 185's and possibly supplementing or replacing 350's.

 

[158756]

Plan C might be to go ahead with the D78 conversion *shudder* and start a cascade of D78>Pacer>Sprinter>Turbostar between Nortern and TPE, however without electrification I cant see any Pacers being withdrawn and I still don't like the D78 idea. Modern Rail is claiming that there will be so many freed up electrics by Thameslink with no home that leasing costs may be as little as a pound so I think Pacers and D78 are both ultimately doomed and its unlikely there will be more pure EMU ordered until that supply glut is worked through so I still believe we will ultimately end up with 319's on most Northern services and 387's replacing 185's and possibly supplementing or replacing 350's.

The leasing costs of EMUs won't have any bearing on the continued use of Pacers and D78s(unless they make it cost effective to chop services in obscure places where the wires end), unless more electrification is rushed before the end of the decade, which looks very unlikely given the current state of affairs.
I agree that TPE won't get new EMUs, but if we're talking about 2021 the 387s will probably already have a longer term home.

 

[Cumbrian]

A bi-mode IEP "regional" unit would be ideal for TPE to run under the wires on the core network, but still operate a quality train at the extremes of their network ie Barrow, Middlesbrough, Scarborough (Hull presumably wired...)

125-140 capable so future proof if HS3 ever happens

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Apparently no wires on TP North "until 2021" (ie a 3-year delay).

Has a certain Nicholas William Peter Clegg, the self-announced champion of improved rail services in the North, made a detailed statement of explanation of this three-year delay, amongst his other recent utterings?

 

[northwichcat]

You wouldn't get 6tph from day one but you would still be able to operate EMU and cascade the 185's.

The idea was supposed to be the 185s freed up off Blackpool services would be enough to run the additional Piccadilly-Selby semi-fast and support other proposed North TPE changes like making the Piccadilly-Hull service a semi-fast and running Airport services around the Ordsall Chord.

Only problem is that didn't allow for the 170s leaving TPE until Manchester-York electrification was complete.

Modern Rail is claiming that there will be so many freed up electrics by Thameslink with no home that leasing costs may be as little as a pound so I think Pacers and D78 are both ultimately doomed and its unlikely there will be more pure EMU ordered until that supply glut is worked through so I still believe we will ultimately end up with 319's on most Northern services and 387's replacing 185's and possibly supplementing or replacing 350's.

I'm not so sure of that. If the 319s cover the North West and FGW area electrification as planned then that's most of them accounted for, while some of the 377s will head to Southeastern.

I don't think the Govia order for 150 new trains (as 31x replacement) has been placed yet, so if there's going to be spare EMUs then why not delay or cut back that order?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Has a certain Nicholas William Peter Clegg, the self-announced champion of improved rail services in the North, made a detailed statement of explanation of this three-year delay, amongst his other recent utterings?

No, Paul, he hasn't. He's only the Deputy PM after all.
Nobody has fessed up to any delay yet. But the hints are mounting up!
Faced with such issues as being late/over budget/under spec, the political imperative will be to bury all the bad news in something that can be called good news, probably with the phrase "northern powerhouse" in it.
Just possibly, we might get a better scheme as a result (eg more lines wired, or higher capacity on key routes).
Who knows, it might morph into HS3.

 

[Viscount702]

No, Paul, he hasn't. He's only the Deputy PM after all.
Nobody has fessed up to any delay yet. But the hints are mounting up!
Faced with such issues as being late/over budget/under spec, the political imperative will be to bury all the bad news in something that can be called good news, probably with the phrase "northern powerhouse" in it.
Just possibly, we might get a better scheme as a result (eg more lines wired, or higher capacity on key routes).
Who knows, it might morph into HS3.

I think I would agree with your previous comment that this improvement in rail services in the North is a complete mess and someone should held to account.

Yes NW Electrification will we hope be finished but probably late. I hope it still includes Victoria to Stalybridge which is technically TP Electrification.
319's will run Liverpool services but nothing has been confirmed for Blackpool and WCML but presumed to be 319's and this will include the services moved from TPE to Northern. The trains will have a refresh but will they now get anything more.

The Northern Hub concluded that the extra capacity on North TP needed the Standedge Tunnels reopening. As soon as TP Electrification was announced that was dropped as electric traction would solve the problem. NR are now saying electrification will not solve the problem. Are they therefore going to open the Tunnels?.

The Chord why the delay.

I detect the usual delaying tactics by Government/NR made easier by the Announcement of HS3. The TP North work needs doing now and should not be held up. If some reports are believed the bit of TP Electrification between York and Leeds and Selby will get done more or less as planned but the main bit will get dropped and there will be one report/investigation after another into how to do HS3 before that gets dropped.

 

[Greybeard33]

A bi-mode IEP "regional" unit would be ideal for TPE to run under the wires on the core network, but still operate a quality train at the extremes of their network ie Barrow, Middlesbrough, Scarborough (Hull presumably wired...)

125-140 capable so future proof if HS3 ever happens

What would be the likely timescale/cost of NR gauge clearance and platform lengthening work to enable 26m IEP carriages to be used on the TPE network?

 

[northwichcat]

I hope it still includes Victoria to Stalybridge which is technically TP Electrification.

That was added on to the North West scheme before North TPE electrification was announced.

319's will run Liverpool services but nothing has been confirmed for Blackpool and WCML but presumed to be 319's and this will include the services moved from TPE to Northern. The trains will have a refresh but will they now get anything more.

They will get accessibility improvements such as a PIS and eventually new toilets.

The Northern Hub concluded that the extra capacity on North TP needed the Standedge Tunnels reopening. As soon as TP Electrification was announced that was dropped as electric traction would solve the problem. NR are now saying electrification will not solve the problem. Are they therefore going to open the Tunnels?.

I don't think it went that far. I think Network Rail suggested overtaking loops, so for instance a Manchester bound stopping service could be stopped at Marsden and a Manchester bound express could overtake it and enter the tunnel first.

 

[Viscount702]

That was added on to the North West scheme before North TPE electrification was announced.

I don't believe it was. It was added as part of TPE and later was renamed TPE West and then later still added to NWE to be carried out by the same contractors.

They will get accessibility improvements such as a PIS and eventually new toilets.

Yes they will but what about the rest.

I don't think it went that far. I think Network Rail suggested overtaking loops, so for instance a Manchester bound stopping service could be stopped at Marsden and a Manchester bound express could overtake it and enter the tunnel first.

It did. It was part of Northern Hub originally being taken forward by NR and would provide the loops between Marsden and Diggle through the tunnels but after TPE was announced was quietly dropped ( I suspect to make Northern Hub cheaper) and the reason given later was the electric traction would mean the loops wouldn't be necessary. It was disputed by some and it was said later that the loops were still required for freight and for greater reliability.

Nonetheless NR are now saying contrary to the reason given for not reopening the tunnels that electric traction won't be good enough.

 

[158756]

I don't think it went that far. I think Network Rail suggested overtaking loops, so for instance a Manchester bound stopping service could be stopped at Marsden and a Manchester bound express could overtake it and enter the tunnel first.

Such a thing can already be done at Marsden, though it only appears to be timetabled once a day(with the stop at Marsden lasting 10 minutes).

 

[Philip]

The idea was supposed to be the 185s freed up off Blackpool services would be enough to run the additional Piccadilly-Selby semi-fast and support other proposed North TPE changes like making the Piccadilly-Hull service a semi-fast and running Airport services around the Ordsall Chord.

The 185s will be required to continue running Blackpool services beyond 2016 if as it seems North West electrification is delayed as well. This would be another reason why the 6 trains per hour won't be happening for quite a few more years.

 

[northwichcat]

The 185s will be required to continue running Blackpool services beyond 2016 if as it seems North West electrification is delayed as well. This would be another reason why the 6 trains per hour won't be happening for quite a few more years.

Blackpool has been delayed. However, at present Network Rail are planning a 3 month shut down of Preston-Blackpool from mid-December 2016 to finish off the electrification and undertake additional infrastructure work, so as long as Deansgate-Leyland gets done by December 16 then the 185s can still be freed up at the December 16 timetable change.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Before everyone gets too excited about what is happening in 2016 and beyond, I'd be more concerned about what is going to happen in April when the 170s go to Chiltern. Without some sort of replacement stock then the current timetable cannot operate and there will be a significant reduction in capacity on an already overcrowded and overstretched network.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Before everyone gets too excited about what is happening in 2016 and beyond, I'd be more concerned about what is going to happen in April when the 170s go to Chiltern. Without some sort of replacement stock then the current timetable cannot operate and there will be a significant reduction in capacity on an already overcrowded and overstretched network.

Pleased to see this more immediate matter affecting the existing TPE fleet in four months time has been added to the current thread discussion.

 

[Viscount702]

Before everyone gets too excited about what is happening in 2016 and beyond, I'd be more concerned about what is going to happen in April when the 170s go to Chiltern. Without some sort of replacement stock then the current timetable cannot operate and there will be a significant reduction in capacity on an already overcrowded and overstretched network.

I thought a solution had been found. Wasn't the transfer being delayed a bit and some other units coming in to replace them from where has however remained a mystery.

 

[158756]

I thought a solution had been found. Wasn't the transfer being delayed a bit and some other units coming in to replace them from where has however remained a mystery.

Chiltern are still supposed to be starting services to Oxford Parkway in the summer, so they might not need all the units but they will need some. Scotrail was rumoured for replacements but any spare units they have now appear to be going to Southern. However it appears Northern will have spare units as 12-14 are freed up by electrification but they only have uses for 2 of them.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Children are still supposed to be starting services to Oxford Parkway in the summer

You mean like in Budapest? Now that would be something.
http://www.gyermekvasut.hu/english/page.php?16

 

[WatcherZero]

I thought a solution had been found. Wasn't the transfer being delayed a bit and some other units coming in to replace them from where has however remained a mystery.

Government said 9 months ago there was a plan, they've failed to produce evidence of it since.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Government said 9 months ago there was a plan, they've failed to produce evidence of it since.

The so-called "plan" appears to be as valid as any "cunning plan" of Baldrick that ever saw the light of day in the "Blackadder" TV series...