Northern - a catch 22?

[anti-pacer]

As we all know Northern are heavily subsided and therefore seem at the bottom of the pecking order for new stock. Trains, outside the peaks, are quieter than in some parts of the country, and part of that is down to lack of incentive to use trains (ageing stock, slow services, cleanliness, frequency, etc).

If the DfT bit the bullet and decided to heavily invest in new stock and service improvement up here, surely this would make for an attractive mode of transport and increased passenger numbers. Surely then this would reduce the subsidy needed and stop Northern being the litter of the runt in terms of investment.

A regular gripe amongst passengers is the quality of stock, so maybe new better services in every aspect would entice people out of their cars and onto the rails.

 

[northwichcat]

Northern have had significant growth. However, as the franchise wasn't let on the basis of growth DfT can delay extra rolling stock until whenever it suits them.

 

[anti-pacer]

Northern have had significant growth. However, as the franchise wasn't let on the basis of growth DfT can delay extra rolling stock until whenever it suits them.

But will that change do you think when the next franchise is let?

 

[NotATrainspott]

But will that change do you think when the next franchise is let?

Almost certainly. If the new Northern franchise doesn't see enormous improvements, above and beyond what's already planned with the rollout of electrification and the scrapping of the Pacers, the anti-HS2 lot would have an enormous amount of ammunition to damage the project before the Hybrid bill is passed by Parliament.

 

[87019Chris]

basically what will most likely happen is that, any new stock bought for other franchises will displace old stock from where ever, and that stock will be given to northern and will be advertised as new stock, and DaFT will not invest in the northern franchise as it is subsidised and the gov. don't think that the investment would be worth the profit from the growth that may happen, as us northerners are very tight with our wallets and the investment would most likely come with fare rises which would then affect the people who already used the train, therefore forcing them off and back to there cars and not attracting new customers and especially in off peak times when trains are running empty or not running at all, meaning all new stock if it had of been bought would be sat doing nothing for the sake of 12 hours a day, whereas if they use old stock there is 12 hours a day they can fix it whilst it isn't working, call me a pessimist but you know it would happen and even though i wish i had new stock to commute on with more space it just isn't worth the risk of investment, when the franchise needs extra stock but not new stock.

 

[Silv1983]

But will that change do you think when the next franchise is let?

A new rolling stock agreement is almost certainly going to be at the forefront of any new franchising deal - this is the concensus among managment at Northern (well those managers with whom I have discussed the issue). It's just a too widely publicised problem to be ignored by the Dft.

 

[455driver]

Do you think spending 100s of millions on new stock will entice enough people to use the trains to remove need for the (very large) subsidy that Northern currently receive?

Bearing in mind the very small fares charged on Northern do you think the new trains would have enough room to get all these people on board (so no subsidy is required) or do you think the fares would have to increase massively to the sort of levels as seen in other parts of the Country?

 

[anti-pacer]

Do you think spending 100s of millions on new stock will entice enough people to use the trains to remove need for the (very large) subsidy that Northern currently receive?

Bearing in mind the very small fares charged on Northern do you think the new trains would have enough room to get all these people on board (so no subsidy is required) or do you think the fares would have to increase massively to the sort of levels as seen in other parts of the Country?

I truly believe that people would be happy to pay more for a decent service operated by clean, modern trains enjoyed in so many other parts of the UK

Northern's stock problems seem to be all too frequently highlighted by local media all over the North, and passengers seem very disgruntled at having to travel in such a manner as they (we) do at present.

Look at Transdev Burnley & Pendle's "Witchway" buses, operated on the Nelson/Burnley-Manchester route. When they were introduced, ridership increased significantly, as did their fares, but they always seem to be busy. I see no reason why train services can't be the same.

As for fares, well outside the PTE areas, our fares are not really any cheaper than anywhere else. Successive governments have shafted all 3 Northern regions, so if they want to create a level playing field in terms of the nation's economy, they need to invest in our transport networks. Why should the biggest franchise serving the biggest population of all UK franchises be, in so many ways, the worst?

 

[ModernRailways]

I truly believe that people would be happy to pay more for a decent service operated by clean, modern trains enjoyed in so many other parts of the UK

Northern's stock problems seem to be all too frequently highlighted by local media all over the North, and passengers seem very disgruntled at having to travel in such a manner as they (we) do at present.

Look at Transdev Burnley & Pendle's "Witchway" buses, operated on the Nelson/Burnley-Manchester route. When they were introduced, ridership increased significantly, as did their fares, but they always seem to be busy. I see no reason why train services can't be the same.

As for fares, well outside the PTE areas, our fares are not really any cheaper than anywhere else. Successive governments have shafted all 3 Northern regions, so if they want to create a level playing field in terms of the nation's economy, they need to invest in our transport networks. Why should the biggest franchise serving the biggest population of all UK franchises be, in so many ways, the worst?

On the subject of buses, Go North East have started heavily investing in new buses. The X9/X10 to Middlesbrough is always fairly busy, a lot busier than the train is. The same goes for the buses to Metrocentre and Hexham. The buses have power sockets and WIFI. What does the train have? Nothing. Buses may be cheaper to replace, but our previous buses were around 10 years old (at least) and they are still running on other routes.

Fares up here in Newcastle with Northern tend to be reasonable, although looking at some of the fares they are expensive, more so than the South in some cases. All the while we have to suffer with 142s and 156s. 156s are nice to travel on, but they have nothing on board such as power sockets or WIFI, plus a lot of people think they are old and so not worthy of being travelled on.

I was chatting to a Guard in Manchester who said that the 319s will be great if they are refurbished well and they alone should improve passenger numbers. However, like he said they will need to be refurbished to a very high standard, like that of the 321 for Greater Anglia.

 

[Hellfire]

Well I for one would consider going back to the train if the quality of Northern's rolling stock improved.

I used to travel into Manchester from Darwen on the Ribble Valley line. I gave up after experiencing trains not turning up because they had broken down and, when they did turn up they had nowhere near enough capacity for the numbers travelling. Two carriages on peak trains is a joke as is 3 +2 seating with appalling leg room.

Judging by the amount if traffic on the A666 in the morning a lot of people like me have decided it is better to have a comfortable seat in a car.

The proposed double tracking of part of the line will improve frequency but until the rolling stock is more comfortable and better furnished I'll stick to the car. It's just as quick.

 

[Moonshot]

Well I for one would consider going back to the train if the quality of Northern's rolling stock improved.

I used to travel into Manchester from Darwen on the Ribble Valley line. I gave up after experiencing trains not turning up because they had broken down and, when they did turn up they had nowhere near enough capacity for the numbers travelling. Two carriages on peak trains is a joke as is 3 +2 seating with appalling leg room.

Judging by the amount if traffic on the A666 in the morning a lot of people like me have decided it is better to have a comfortable seat in a car.

The proposed double tracking of part of the line will improve frequency but until the rolling stock is more comfortable and better furnished I'll stick to the car. It's just as quick.

I was actually on this route the other week ..... I got quite a surprise when I saw how busy it was......including a significant number who only travelled inbetween the intermediate stops north of Bolton.

 

[PHILIPE]

What annoys me is that passengers in the North have to pay the same increases with the same old spin about improvements as the reason being spouted as passengers in the South who do see improvements.

 

[Moonshot]

What annoys me is that passengers in the North have to pay the same increases with the same old spin about improvements as the reason being spouted as passengers in the South who do see improvements.

Maybe we should open up rail in the north fully to the private sector?

 

[fowler9]

Maybe we should open up rail in the north fully to the private sector?

I'd be worried if that happened. I could see my local station going unstaffed shortly before going to one train per hour shortly before being closed.

 

[Hellfire]

I was actually on this route the other week ..... I got quite a surprise when I saw how busy it was......including a significant number who only travelled inbetween the intermediate stops north of Bolton.

Those stops serve quite a population area. Hall I'th Wood and Bromley Cross are part of the Bolton sprawl. It's only Entwistle which is truly rural

Darwen has a population of 30,000 and Blackburn is much bigger. I'm convinced that if the service was more frequent and the trains newer and with more capacity then people would use the train more. At the moment the experience of having to try and board a crush loaded two carriage train at Salford Crescent would put anyone off.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe we should open up rail in the north fully to the private sector?

Is this "private" sector either going to have the same level of subsidy, in which case, how's it going to be any different from now, or is it going to be without subsidy, in which case, it will be a disaster of closures.

 

[47802]

Personally if the following happened on northern I would be reasonably happy and I don't think its asking the earth

1. 319 refurbished to a good standard eg 321 demonstrator

2. Electrification cascade to address main capacity issues

3. Eventual cascade of 185's or 170's to major non electrified routes operated either by transfer to TPX and/or Northern directly

4. Proper high quality refurbishment of Diesel fleet which will be retained long term.

Is that asking too much? probably

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair, Northern does a decent job with what it's got and what it's contracted to do.

It's relatively reliable, it's comparatively ok priced, it's getting to grips with the rolling stock refurbishment issue.

What's needed in the North is not a franchise change as such, it needs a step change in service provision. It needs services across a decent range of the day, it needs increased frequencies on a number of routes, it needs better services outside of the PTE areas.

It needs contractual change.

 

[ECML180]

From what I see, Northern as a whole does great with what it has. However what is has, in terms of stock, is not enough in terms of quality or quantity, but they're powerless to do anything about it really. SOme support from the DfT and it could see a good improvement.

My opinion of fares is that most are about normal and some seem to be a bargain, but then with better trains and trains that matched capacity better they could well justify higher fares and I'm sure it wouldn't effect ridership. However the one thing Northern could tackle that it hasn't is the staff-some are absolute gems and always helpful and polite, others seem to be either disillusioned with their job or simply uncaring, thankfully it's mostly the former but in my experience the staff are one extreme or the other, never in the middle!

 

[Greybeard33]

The Altrincham, Bury and Oldham lines around Manchester cover their operating costs from fare revenue since conversion to Metrolink, whereas they were said to be heavily subsidised when operated by decrepit heavy rail stock. While light rail conversion is not appropriate for most of Northern's routes, this does demonstrate that the right sort of investment in subsidised services can pay for itself in a virtuous circle of increasing patronage and revenue.

In the absence of political will to either close services or increase fares, the alternative would appear to be a continuing spiral of decline, requiring ever-increasing subsidies.

 

[yorksrob]

In the absence of political will to either close services or increase fares, the alternative would appear to be a continuing spiral of decline, requiring ever-increasing subsidies.

That depends whether services really are in a continual spiral of decline.

Certainly there has been an increase in usage in recent years, and in some places, an increase in investment - i.e. electric services around Leeds.

Overall, the subsidy of the railway has decreased since the high point a few years ago, what evidence is there that regional railways in the North have been bucking this trend ?

 

[Bald Rick]

If the DfT bit the bullet and decided to heavily invest in new stock and service improvement up here, surely this would make for an attractive mode of transport and increased passenger numbers. Surely then this would reduce the subsidy needed and stop Northern being the litter of the runt in terms of investment.

There are some very clever people in TOCs, Network Rail and DfT who regularly do the maths on such improvements. When the sums come up good, then the service improvements generally happen. Northern will, of course, be getting some 'new' stock as a result of the electrification schemes.

 

[tbtc]

I know that "Master Threads" aren't flavour of the month at the moment (well, the HS2 one isn't, we've still seen other threads rolled into other "Master" ones), but we should probably have a "Northern" thread, since we keep having the same arguments over and over again ("something something no-growth basis something something Merseyrail Pacers something something London bias etc)

What annoys me is that passengers in the North have to pay the same increases with the same old spin about improvements as the reason being spouted as passengers in the South who do see improvements.

CP5 will see significantly more investment in "the North" than most parts of the UK - are you telling me that we won't see improvements (with all of the electrification, EMUs replacing Pacers, additional services, "Manchester" Hub etc)?

 

[Darren R]

I was actually on this route the other week ..... I got quite a surprise when I saw how busy it was......including a significant number who only travelled inbetween the intermediate stops north of Bolton.

In my experience a goodly proportion of those passengers use the train because chances are they'll get a free ride. With short distances between stops and unstaffed or open stations, it is a problem widespread across NorthernLand. (And a constant and profound source of irritation to me! )

 

[BantamMenace]

In my experience a goodly proportion of those passengers use the train because chances are they'll get a free ride. With short distances between stops and unstaffed or open stations, it is a problem widespread across NorthernLand. (And a constant and profound source of irritation to me! )

As a regular user of the Airedale and wharfedale lines into Leeds I second that. The general consensus is that electrification brings cascaded stock and that grows the market to such a level that new stock is justifiable. View the lines I just mentioned as a perfect example. When this new stock comes to the north when the 319s are scrapped I would look at heavy investment in ticket barriers, manning stations and making trains DOO with on board staff being relocated to man stations.

Making the railway a closed system on the commuter lines into Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle would increase revenue almost double I believe (I have serious evidence for this, it's just a feeling from personal experience). A railway where you had to have a ticket to enter and exit the system.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I know that "Master Threads" aren't flavour of the month at the moment (well, the HS2 one isn't, we've still seen other threads rolled into other "Master" ones.

There has been an official posting from the forum staff that the following "Other Transport" master threads have now all been locked:-
Tyne and Wear Metro master thread
Manchester Metrolink master thread
Sheffield Supertram master thread
Blackpool Tramway master thread.

That official forum posting states that hopes that differing individual subject threads on those four systems will ensue.

 

[Carlisle]

On the subject of buses, Go North East have started heavily investing in new buses. The X9/X10 to Middlesbrough is always fairly busy, a lot busier than the train is. The same goes for the buses to Metrocentre and Hexham. The buses have power sockets and WIFI. What does the train have? Nothing. Buses may be cheaper to replace, but our previous buses were around 10 years old (at least) and they are still running on other routes.

Fares up here in Newcastle with Northern tend to be reasonable, although looking at some of the fares they are expensive, more so than the South in some cases. All the while we have to suffer with 142s and 156s. 156s are nice to travel on, but they have nothing on board such as power sockets or WIFI, plus a lot of people think they are old and so not worthy of being travelled on.

I was chatting to a Guard in Manchester who said that the 319s will be great if they are refurbished well and they alone should improve passenger numbers. However, like he said they will need to be refurbished to a very high standard, like that of the 321 for Greater Anglia.

I agree the 156s etc need a serious refurb plus that's the first time I have heard of power sockets being provided on busses although I know they are common on longer distance coaches

 

[ModernRailways]

I agree the 156s etc need a serious refurb plus that's the first time I have heard of power sockets being provided on busses although I know they are common on longer distance coaches

All of Go North East's newest buses now have power sockets, next stop information (terribly voiced), and free wifi (quite quick too)! The only exception are the new Citaro's for the Connections 4 route, and the only thing missing on them is the power sockets.

If a bus company can do that, why can't Northern? The Scotrail 156s seem to have had a half decent refurbishment, but IIRC don't have wifi. A lot of the time now people want WIFI whilst on a train and there are still many TOCs running trains without it on long distance journeys! It's something which should be incorporated into any new train in my opinion!

I know some people who have chosen Grand Central over East Coast simply because you have to pay for WIFI on East Coast and it's free on Grand Central.

 

[HSTEd]

The political payoff from replacing all of Northern's rolling stock with a uniform fleet (Turbostar/Electrostar or whatever the Siemens equivalent of the family is) would be huge.

But it would be expensive enough to make the Treasury wonks squeel in agony.

 

[transmanche]

All of Go North East's newest buses now have power sockets, next stop information (terribly voiced), and free wifi (quite quick too)! The only exception are the new Citaro's for the Connections 4 route, and the only thing missing on them is the power sockets.

These are good points that you've made (and also in post #9).

GNE have recently introduced new Tynedale Express services between Newcastle and Hexham (to supplement the 10, which already has free wifi) knocking 40-odd mins off the time taken by the 10 - so it's only 10-15 mins longer than the train.

Now when a passenger is given the choice of a nice new bus with free wifi, or an old Pacer with draughts: it's really hard for Northern to compete with GNE.