No 10 rule breaking gatherings during 2020.

[kristiang85]

The Met Police have finally said they will investigate the parties:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-60122893

This of course doesn't stop the possible outcome of them claiming no crimes were committed and dismissing everything, but to actually investigate is a start. I would have thought if the Government do have a lot of control over the Met, they might try and allow a situation where Johnson is cleared, but some of his staff face criminal punishment so it doesn't look like a complete whitewash, if an investigation concluded crimes were committed.

But now it seems that in turn delays the Gray report for a while:

BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though

(from Peston).

How convenient.

 

[brad465]

But now it seems that in turn delays the Gray report for a while:


(from Peston).

How convenient.

Yes we just have to hope that the delay only helps keep the leaks coming, whether linked to partygate or not, so piles pressure on the Tory party further to get rid of him regardless of when the report is eventually published.

 

[John Luxton]

The trouble with this system is that the 54 letters only triggers the vote, and precludes a repeat vote for a year. Were it not for the year thing, I suspect we’d have had the 54 letters already.

I read somewhere in the last few days - may have been Daily Mail web site that some Tories want that year to be reduced to six months.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2022 ==

It is fascinating that these events occured nearly two years ago yet no one thought it neccesary to leak them until Johnson finally defied the so called experts and refused to lock down a few weeks ago for a second Christmas.

I fear that for all his faults, if they do succeed in deposing him, his replacement will be far more like Jacinda Ardern in such matters, and that this is the real agenda of the leakers.

Your theory could be correct - the only thing I would say to counter this is that would people be prepared to go back to lockdowns again or would massive civil disobedience break out?

I would like to believe that the loosening of restrictions in England has been due to the politicians accepting there have been mounting protests around the country.

These have been much bigger and better organised than the mainstream media will admit. Having followed a few live streams it is clear that participants are more than just the usual rent a mob cranks.

I think the government now fear open rioting breaking out as happened over the Community Charge. Do they want another Battle of Trafalgar Square?

Once that happened the Community Charge was dead in the water despite it being a fairer tax.

My suspicion is ending restrictions will release the pressure building up.

A new PM imposing restrictions again would be a trigger to revolt as too much information is now getting out as to how we have been misled and lied to.

 

[DelayRepay]

An interesting note from the BBC Live feed

How bad could it get? Here's the worst case scenario​

Covering up evidence of minor offences becomes a serious crime

Dominic Casciani
Home and Legal Correspondent

It's for the police to work out what they think is important to their investigation - taking into account what is necessary and proportionate in the circumstances.
If the Metropolitan Police find evidence of wrongdoing at Downing Street, the politics of that will be inevitably more significant than the financial impact of any fixed penalty tickets they dish out.
But if officers were to find that their investigation had been deliberately hindered in some way or another - perhaps by the destruction or concealing of information relating to alleged parties - that could lead to an investigation into perverting the course of justice.
That's the very serious crime of getting in the way of the truth - and it hangs over every investigation.
And back in 2013 the former cabinet minister Chris Huhne and his ex-wife were jailed for exactly this crime when they hid the facts about a speeding offence.

 

[duncanp]

An interesting note from the BBC Live feed

There have already been reports of various e-mails and social media messages being conveniently deleted, although once a message has been deleted it is difficult to prove that it existed in the first place.

I am sure that D*****c C******s has plenty of evidence (copies of e-mails etc.) stored up ready to release when appropriate, and a whole series of cupboards to keep all of Boris's skeletons in.

 

[brad465]

But now it seems that in turn delays the Gray report for a while:


(from Peston).

How convenient.

Interestingly further sources are claiming the Met Police did not order a delay in the report being published, and also that Cabinet were not aware of the Met statement when they met this morning. This suggests Johnson is just using the investigation announcement as an excuse.

 

[DelayRepay]

Does anyone have a view on suggestions that this may end with charges of Misconduct in Public Office? Which would be very serious indeed, far more serious than a fixed penalty notice.

 

[bramling]

Does anyone have a view on suggestions that this may end with charges of Misconduct in Public Office? Which would be very serious indeed, far more serious than a fixed penalty notice.

I don't see it happening. These things tend to end up being a whitewash. Public bodies don't like twisting the knife into fellow public bodies.

 

[greyman42]

I’ve heard it suggested that Johnson is simply highly unpopular, with elements of the left, and with those who blame him for Brexit.

I think that about sums up the BBC.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2022 ==

For children born in the Spring, they actually missed out on two birthday parties.

They have not got a clue what a birthday party is at that age.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I think that about sums up the BBC.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2022 ==


They have not got a clue what a birthday party is at that age.

Presumably he is referring to any Spring. Someone born in spring 2012 will indeed have missed two birthday parties.

 

[greyman42]

There is another reason I think he should go. Imagine there is some kind of national emergency, which could be another public health issue, or something else, where the Government need to give urgent instructions to the population. Nobody would pay any attention to this Government, given what's happened. Whilst I am against restrictions, I do believe that the Government needs to be able to implement them under extreme circumstances - but this Government couldn't, no matter how extreme.

I think if there was an outbreak of Ebola in the UK, the Government would not have any bother keeping people indoors.
As for a virus that has a survival rate of over 99.9%, that would be more difficult.

 

[96tommy]

Sue Grey report is now expected tonight and to be published in full (in the morning). My thinking is that Boris has seen the findings in advance (or been leaked to him) and they clear him of blame. Then before PMQs tomorrow he will fire Martin Reynolds and others to show he has acted on advice.

 

[DelayRepay]

For children born in the Spring, they actually missed out on two birthday parties.

They have not got a clue what a birthday party is at that age.

Presumably he is referring to any Spring. Someone born in spring 2012 will indeed have missed two birthday parties.

Indeed - I meant any Spring, not the Spring of 2020. My nephew has had his sixth and seventh birthday during the pandemic. He was born in October so he missed his sixth birthday (in 2020) as his area was in whatever the most restrictive tier was at the time. His Seventh birthday in 2021 was fine. If he'd been born in April, he'd have missed out on both of them.

 

[greyman42]

Indeed - I meant any Spring, not the Spring of 2020. My nephew has had his sixth and seventh birthday during the pandemic. He was born in October so he missed his sixth birthday (in 2020) as his area was in whatever the most restrictive tier was at the time. His Seventh birthday in 2021 was fine. If he'd been born in April, he'd have missed out on both of them.

Fair comment.

 

[DelayRepay]

Sue Grey report is now expected tonight and to be published in full (in the morning). My thinking is that Boris has seen the findings in advance (or been leaked to him) and they clear him of blame. Then before PMQs tomorrow he will fire Martin Reynolds and others to show he has acted on advice.

I am not sure Sue Gray can clear anyone of blame, any more than she can find anyone guilty. She is not the police, or a court, and cannot make a judgement about whether the Ministerial Code was broken. But whatever is in the report is clearly of interest to the Police. Whether the Prime Minister, or someone else is the subject of their investigation remains to be seen.

I suspect they know that, if they don't publish it, it will be leaked which will look worse.

I also suspect the Prime Minister knows that, as he's been telling everyone to wait for the report, a failure to publish it is likely to contribute to the number of letters arriving in the 1922 committee's in-tray.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2022 ==

They have decided to publish a redacted version after all:





== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2022 ==

They have decided to publish a redacted version after all:

 

[Busaholic]

Clearly someone here has an agenda - who, and why, and what do they hope will happen if Johnson goes?

Who? Dominic Cummings
Why? Revenge
What do they hope to achieve? At the very least, Johnson's disgrace and complete disappearance from public life.

I doubt Johnson will 'do a Profumo' and go and do 'good works' somewhere out of the public eye.

 

[DelayRepay]

Who? Dominic Cummings
Why? Revenge
What do they hope to achieve? At the very least, Johnson's disgrace and complete disappearance from public life.

If it's Cummings, I don't even think it's revenge. If it's him, 'because I can' would be reason enough.

 

[greyman42]

Does anyone know what, if anything, Cummins does for a living nowadays?

 

[Ediswan]

Does anyone know what, if anything, Cummins does for a living nowadays?

Cummins manufactures diesel engines and related equipment.

 

[brad465]

Does anyone know what, if anything, Cummins does for a living nowadays?

Apparently he has a blog that he charges for access, how many subscribers are helping him get by I don't know. However, if his wife Mary Wakefield is still Commissioning Editor for the Spectator, that will almost certainly help tie his family over.

 

[Cowley]

Apparently he has a blog that he charges for access, how many subscribers are helping him get by I don't know. However, if his wife Mary Wakefield is still Commissioning Editor for the Spectator, that will almost certainly help tie his family over.

The family are wealthy enough anyway aren’t they?

 

[Busaholic]

If it's Cummings, I don't even think it's revenge. If it's him, 'because I can' would be reason enough.

If the interview with him in the Guardian magazine the other work is anything to go by, he'll seek revenge hot, cold or lukewarm: it's as much against Carrie as her husband.

If your enemy's enemy is your friend, I'm happy if Cummings reaps his revenge.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I don't see it happening. These things tend to end up being a whitewash. Public bodies don't like twisting the knife into fellow public bodies.

Spot on the whole thing is had been gamed by BoJo to work in his favour. Sue Gray will find fault with the parties or at least some of them but not point fingers. BoJo will humble himself again in the HoC and maybe even a national broadcast to country then the Met will say there were some breaches and apply some fines potentially at worse at best just say they should have dome better and use the favourite phrase "lessons will be learnt".

The spineless Tory MPs won't write 54 letters, Sunak won't resign and the BoJo will just roll on. Local elections won't be good but not a disaster they will just put it down to mid term blues and BoJo will be home and dry.

Then in a couple of years a GE and whose going to remember what happened then and even the Tory ones that do most won't vote Labour so will goto Lib Dem or Greens and just split the opposition. Outcome BoJo gets in for a 2nd term with reduced majority.

 

[Busaholic]

Spot on the whole thing is had been gamed by BoJo to work in his favour. Sue Gray will find fault with the parties or at least some of them but not point fingers. BoJo will humble himself again in the HoC and maybe even a national broadcast to country then the Met will say there were some breaches and apply some fines potentially at worse at best just say they should have dome better and use the favourite phrase "lessons will be learnt".

The spineless Tory MPs won't write 54 letters, Sunak won't resign and the BoJo will just roll on. Local elections won't be good but not a disaster they will just put it down to mid term blues and BoJo will be home and dry.

Then in a couple of years a GE and whose going to remember what happened then and even the Tory ones that do most won't vote Labour so will goto Lib Dem or Greens and just split the opposition. Outcome BoJo gets in for a 2nd term with reduced majority.

I'm reaching for the cyanide tablet!

 

[brad465]

"He was ambushed with a cake":

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1486059266633043973

"He was ambushed with a cake." A Conservative MP says that a birthday celebration held in Downing Street for Boris Johnson wasn't a "premeditated party". Conor Burns tells
@cathynewman
that he supports Boris Johnson and that "the public will ultimately judge".

Then in a couple of years a GE and whose going to remember what happened then and even the Tory ones that do most won't vote Labour so will goto Lib Dem or Greens and just split the opposition. Outcome BoJo gets in for a 2nd term with reduced majority.

Depends on how much tactical voting there is; North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham both saw the Lib Dems win off tactical voting and evidence of informal pacts to try and limit vote splitting, and Starmer himself has not ruled out some form of informal pact happening in the next GE (not the same though as saying there will be a pact, but if he said that he'd admit losing).

 

[SuspectUsual]

Noticeable that over the last 36 hours I’ve heard three different members of the cabinet - Shapps, Rees-Mogg and Zahawi - mount a partial defence of how well “the government” has done over the last 18/24 months. No mention of Johnson. Maybe it’s deliberate, maybe it’s all an accident…..

 

[bramling]

Spot on the whole thing is had been gamed by BoJo to work in his favour. Sue Gray will find fault with the parties or at least some of them but not point fingers. BoJo will humble himself again in the HoC and maybe even a national broadcast to country then the Met will say there were some breaches and apply some fines potentially at worse at best just say they should have dome better and use the favourite phrase "lessons will be learnt".

The spineless Tory MPs won't write 54 letters, Sunak won't resign and the BoJo will just roll on. Local elections won't be good but not a disaster they will just put it down to mid term blues and BoJo will be home and dry.

Then in a couple of years a GE and whose going to remember what happened then and even the Tory ones that do most won't vote Labour so will goto Lib Dem or Greens and just split the opposition. Outcome BoJo gets in for a 2nd term with reduced majority.

Whilst I would go as far as to say the above is quite a possible trajectory, I'm a little less pessimistic that this is the one which will actually happen. I do think the damage done resonates a little further than just mid term blues, everyone I know is mightily pissed off with this government, for a variety of different reasons, and this very much includes people who voted for them. The whole parties thing is more of a proxy for general dissatisfaction - it simply sums up rather well the arrogance, incompetence and chaos of the Johnson regime.

I think the drip, drip, drip of bad stuff will continue, for the simple reason that Johnson has an inherent tendency to do bad stuff. Once upon a time people found this funny, but I don't think they do when it's their job / tax / livelihood / gas bill / pension that takes centre-stage in the buffoonery circus.

The fly in the ointment is, plain and simple, Labour. They damn well need to get their act together and provide some proper opposition (and I say this as a natural Conservative voter!). They need to stop focussing on Covid restrictions, and instead focus on the issues which are going to be of salience to voters over the next couple of years. They seem to have the same problems as the Conservatives - a lame leader, and an even lamer shadow cabinet.

 

[brad465]

Whilst I would go as far as to say the above is quite a possible trajectory, I'm a little less pessimistic that this is the one which will actually happen. I do think the damage done resonates a little further than just mid term blues, everyone I know is mightily pissed off with this government, for a variety of different reasons, and this very much includes people who voted for them. The whole parties thing is more of a proxy for general dissatisfaction - it simply sums up rather well the arrogance, incompetence and chaos of the Johnson regime.

I think the drip, drip, drip of bad stuff will continue, for the simple reason that Johnson has an inherent tendency to do bad stuff. Once upon a time people found this funny, but I don't think they do when it's their job / tax / livelihood / gas bill / pension that takes centre-stage in the buffoonery circus.

The fly in the ointment is, plain and simple, Labour. They damn well need to get their act together and provide some proper opposition (and I say this as a natural Conservative voter!). They need to stop focussing on Covid restrictions, and instead focus on the issues which are going to be of salience to voters over the next couple of years. They seem to have the same problems as the Conservatives - a lame leader, and an even lamer shadow cabinet.

Not to mention that Johnson has leadership rivals who need him gone sooner rather than later to bolster their chances of becoming PM. Sunak will want to take over before the NI tax hike handling gets too damaging and a number of other budget-related problems he's overseeing become plain to see, most especially the cost of living crisis. Truss needs Johnson to fall fast because she has the poison chalice of post-Brexit matters, chiefly the NI protocol; the longer she remains in charge of that, the more her incapability to get what the ERG and other influences within the party want grows.

I would not be surprised if Sunak in particular has some part to play in the many leaks over partygate (one of the photos leaked was taken from No.11), in an attempt to get Johnson out fast.

 

[david1212]

Regardless of exactly how many events, exactly how many attended plus of course each individually making the choice to do so and exactly what went on behind closed doors so much has now come out of the woodwork that BoJo should resign. Had he done as soon as the events on the eve of the Duke of Edinburgh's funeral been exposed maybe the police would have decided not to investigate.

While currently the situation is better the question is who would want to be PM right now and who would be best for the country ? The last thread on this has been locked.

.....
The fly in the ointment is, plain and simple, Labour. They damn well need to get their act together and provide some proper opposition (and I say this as a natural Conservative voter!). They need to stop focussing on Covid restrictions, and instead focus on the issues which are going to be of salience to voters over the next couple of years. They seem to have the same problems as the Conservatives - a lame leader, and an even lamer shadow cabinet.

OT but exactly. Starmer has been quieter recently so maybe has got the message but not long ago all he was doing was criticising whatever was or was not being done. Stating what he would have done backed by his reasoning IMO would have given far more credibility. Back to the last general election if Labour had been strong would so many if any seats changed from red to blue ?

 

[Bikeman78]

Apparently he has a blog that he charges for access, how many subscribers are helping him get by I don't know. However, if his wife Mary Wakefield is still Commissioning Editor for the Spectator, that will almost certainly help tie his family over.

Indeed, Dominic Cummings substack. Plenty of free material which I found interesting to read. He's clearly throwing Boris under the proverbial bus.