Newport West MP dies, by-election due

[DynamicSpirit]

come on. how long does it take to find a candidate, nominate him and pay the deposit? 5 grand looks a bargain for the PR value alone.

I'm guessing from that remark that you've never been involved in an election campaign.

You don't just need to find a candidate. You need to make sure it's someone who's reliable, will make a good representative for your party, has views that broadly align with your party, doesn't have any easy-to-find skeletons in their cupboard, etc. etc. Ideally it'll be someone who lives in the constituency. The established parties will usually choose candidates who have been active members for some years - and who therefore have been able to demonstrate their commitment and good character to the local membership, and may well be known locally amongst some of the public. And even then mistakes get made sometimes and candidates have to be changed when something about their past comes to light. Then you need an agent, and you need to make sure that both the candidate and the agent are familiar with election rules. And you need volunteers to do all the campaigning. In the last election, I was the campaign organiser for Labour in my constituency. The constituency was not a marginal or target seat. Even so pretty much every day there were teams of volunteers going out leafletting and canvassing etc. You can't do that unless you have at least around a hundred or so active members.

So, no, it's a LOT more than just finding a random person and paying a deposit.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

they will be the pollsters who predicted a remain result then. polls paid for by a remaining press. so they produce the result the commissioner dictates.

No, the pollsters on the whole are independent, professional organisations.

As for the referendum result... Leave won with less than 52% of the vote. The typical margin of error in an opinion poll tends to be around 3%. If I remember correctly, most polls just before the referendum were showing remain in the lead, but only just. So the polls were actually pretty accurate within the margin of error. It's just that the result was so close that it only needed a very small error to change the prediction of who would win.

For Labour remain supporters - I don't have any exact figures to hand, but from memory, the polls tend to show something like 2/3 of Labour voters being remain supporters. If it's about 67% (it may be little different from that, but I'm fairly sure, not much), then you'd need an error of 17% for the polls to be so wrong that it was less than 50% of Labour voters supporting remain. I don't think there's ever been a opinion poll of voting intentions by any of the established reputable polling organisations in living memory that has been wrong by such a huge amount. Errors of 3%, yes. Sometimes a little more. But 17%... No. It's just not credible to claim that the polls would be wrong by such a huge amount. Hence my statement that there's really no reasonable doubt that most people who vote Labour are remain supporters.

 

[Ken H]

No, the pollsters on the whole are independent, professional organisations.

As for the referendum result... Leave won with less than 52% of the vote. The typical margin of error in an opinion poll tends to be around 3%. If I remember correctly, most polls just before the referendum were showing remain in the lead, but only just. So the polls were actually pretty accurate within the margin of error. It's just that the result was so close that it only needed a very small error to change the prediction of who would win.

For Labour remain supporters - I don't have any exact figures to hand, but from memory, the polls tend to show something like 2/3 of Labour voters being remain supporters. If it's about 67%, then you'd need an error of 17% for the polls to be so wrong that it was less than 50% of Labour voters supporting remain. I don't think there's ever been a opinion poll of voting intentions by any of the established reputable polling organisations in living memory that has been wrong by such a huge amount. Errors of 3%, yes. Sometimes a little more. But 17%... No. It's just not credible to claim that the polls would be wrong by such a huge amount. Hence my statement that there's really no reasonable doubt that most people who vote Labour are remain supporters

this is all irrelevant now. There will be no second referendum. Parliament wont pass any withdrawal agreement. The European union (withdrawal) act 2018 will kick in in 20 days and 3 hours 27 minutes and we will leave.
The only thing that can stop that is if parliament can pass a new act amending the act I mention above. That will involve both houses passing it and it gaining royal assent before 29th March. AND the EU agreeing.

 

[edwin_m]

they will be the pollsters who predicted a remain result then. polls paid for by a remaining press. so they produce the result the commissioner dictates.

Why is it in the interest of a particular side to manipulate a poll to show more support for their side? It just means some of their voters won't bother to vote, and the supporters of the other side will be more likely to.

And what is this remain-supporting press you talk about? The Times, Guardian and Mirror supported remain but all the others were for Leave.

 

[Esker-pades]

Surprisingly, a slight swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Newport West. Hard to know whether this has any significance, as firstly it was a by-election, and secondly a very low turnout.

UKIP performed quite well too (3rd). That was a surprise for me. If UKIP hadn't stood, the difference between Labour and the Conservatives could well have been down to a hundred votes or fewer.

 

[Typhoon]

UKIP performed quite well too (3rd). That was a surprise for me. If UKIP hadn't stood, the difference between Labour and the Conservatives could well have been down to a hundred votes or fewer.

You are assuming UKIP took most of their votes from the Conservatives?

I'm not certain that is definitely true, UKIP has always appealed to (some) what might be called 'traditional working class' areas.

 

[DarloRich]

A labour majority cut and a 2.4% swing towards a terrible Tory government! Good effort corbs!

 

[Busaholic]

UKIP performed quite well too (3rd). That was a surprise for me. If UKIP hadn't stood, the difference between Labour and the Conservatives could well have been down to a hundred votes or fewer.

UKIP fielded a 'name', although one I personally wouldn't vote for even if it was illegal not to. Paul Flynn was one of those MPs who had a large personal vote, regardless of party label. Back in the day, I voted once for a Tory MP where I lived on the basis that he was totally at odds with his party most of the time, he'd been an excellent constituency MP and, besides, the Labour guy was a clone of whatever was popular with his leaders.