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What interests me though, is the prospect of the Tories moving further to the right to counter UKIP, with Labour trying tot ake the centre ground again, and the LD's with new leadership moving leftwards!
I really can't see the Lib Dems being anything much post 2015 to be honest, unless there blushes are saved by another coalition agreement to form a Government, I think the Greens are really making in-roads to become the new 'party of protest' and the home of the left that doesn't trust Labour, with the Lib Dems becoming increasingly divided between the SDP and Orange Book factions, it'll be an interesting few years to see what happens, but I'm of the view that there will be defections if the predicted electoral meltdown happens.
You do make an interesting point about UKIP and the Conservatives, the 2014 European Election will certainly be very interesting and following the results of that I'd be interested to see if Nigel Farage follows through with his pledge not to stand UKIP candidates against Conservatives (splitting the vote of the right as the left has suffered since the creation of the SDP/Liberal Dermocrats).
The bigger picture to all of this is that most parties do chase the centre-ground because this is the home of the 'floating voters' the people who really decide the elections. The move, particularly in the UK to a post-industrial economy, has seen increasingly tribal arguments between left and right as irrelevant to modern life, there are plenty of politicians and academics who will point to the voters interest as who can best manage the country rather then who is more ideologically driven. The collapse of most of Labours core voters, particularly down to the shift in economy has seen the party re-position itself significantly, notably under Kinnock (but who would'nt of after the 1983 manifesto!), Blair's Clause IV moment really signalled the change in the Labour party to the centre and somewhere I doubt it will ever significantly shift from. The over-whelming support from the public in David Miliband, a Blairite to the right of his brother, somewhat vindicates the evidence that voters are looking for a 'safe pair of hands' rather then any wholesale change, much to the disappointment of the Trade Unions and 'Old Labour' factions.
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