New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Nicholas Lewis]

Headlines from this weeks national flu&covid survey (data upto 5/2) is
-case and positivity rates declined across all age groups and geographic areas with nothing really standing out. It certainly supports a national relaxation should be possible
-outbreaks down from 1100 to 767
-negligible flu being detected
-hospital admission rates falling in all areas.

You get a better split on age groups than is reported on the Covid dashboard which shows that older age groups are declining very rapidly even the 45-64 group is small proportion which im sure is loaded to the upper end. This could be showing early impact of vaccine. Its show to me that going all out for 50 is unnecessary and that 60 would be sufficient to start easing restrictions.

 

[Eyersey468]

I am sick of the constant mixed messages, inconsistencies and moving of the goalposts. Since March I have felt the government's actions have caused far more harm than good.

 

[Кряква]

Headlines from this weeks national flu&covid survey (data upto 5/2) is
-case and positivity rates declined across all age groups and geographic areas with nothing really standing out. It certainly supports a national relaxation should be possible
-outbreaks down from 1100 to 767
-negligible flu being detected
-hospital admission rates falling in all areas.

You get a better split on age groups than is reported on the Covid dashboard which shows that older age groups are declining very rapidly even the 45-64 group is small proportion which im sure is loaded to the upper end. This could be showing early impact of vaccine. Its show to me that going all out for 50 is unnecessary and that 60 would be sufficient to start easing restrictions.

View attachment 90399

Hmm. I'm not so convinced - it looks as if admissions have roughly halved across all age groups to me?

It's a larger absolute drop, but that would always be the case under lockdown.

 

[317 forever]

It was the 'Restrictions into next year' that I found pessimistic.

Something we have seen, and knew anyway, is that these viruses prevail and spread more in the winter months. I am concerned in case the government do not lift certain restrictions this spring that they foresee could be necessary next winter.

My other concern regarding the government in case they move the goalposts (again) by first requiring the top 4 priority groups vaccinated, then all adults over 50, then all adults over 30, then even all adults over 18. Maybe even most of the population, adults and children.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

Yes the focus this week has been hugely on international travel. Yet of the 3 "new variants" that have been identified (Kent, South Africa and Bristol (or possibly Manchester)), 2 of them originated domestically and in the case of this Bristol/Manchester (I've seen conflicting stories) variant, during lockdown.

Then if the government want to extend lockdown they can always invent a ficticious Oslo variant for example.

 

[kez19]

I know this is the "England Lockdown" thread but here is something I was thinking but why would you need to lockdown (hopefully not in all 4 nations) in the summer months if most of the public have been vaccinated?

Last summer everything was close to "normal" apart from the restrictions in place of course but why would we need to lockdown? To me it seems stupid and just let the countries be themselves again? I am sure there is a bigger picture here that we are not seeing and neither of the home nation governments are willing to say but other than ponder that we can't go abroad and pending if we can travel from each of the nations (apologies if my wording of nations is not correct).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

I am sick of the constant mixed messages, inconsistencies and moving of the goalposts. Since March I have felt the government's actions have caused far more harm than good.

I agree but its good at least people are picking this up "moving goalposts" - heck be surprising if the tinfoil hat brigade were right all along but lets wait! (i'm not making fun of people who come out with theories but even a simple google of certain things it does appear but take that as you will)

 

[Domh245]

Then if the government want to extend lockdown they can always invent a ficticious Oslo variant for example.

Surely if we're picking a Scandinavian capital, a Stockholm variant may be the most appropriate for justifying never ending restrictions

 

[yorksrob]

Surely if we're picking a Scandinavian capital, a Stockholm variant may be the most appropriate for justifying never ending restrictions

That would imply we'd learn to love lockdown !

 

[35B]

I know this is the "England Lockdown" thread but here is something I was thinking but why would you need to lockdown (hopefully not in all 4 nations) in the summer months if most of the public have been vaccinated?

Last summer everything was close to "normal" apart from the restrictions in place of course but why would we need to lockdown? To me it seems stupid and just let the countries be themselves again? I am sure there is a bigger picture here that we are not seeing and neither of the home nation governments are willing to say but other than ponder that we can't go abroad and pending if we can travel from each of the nations (apologies if my wording of nations is not correct).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==




I agree but its good at least people are picking this up "moving goalposts" - heck be surprising if the tinfoil hat brigade were right all along but lets wait! (i'm not making fun of people who come out with theories but even a simple google of certain things it does appear but take that as you will)

That, to me, is the key question - what is the impact of vaccinations on the number of people who are infected and need treatment?

The general scientific consensus is that the distancing measures have an effect on spread, and it seems unclear quite how far Covid genuinely is a seasonal virus.

I'm waiting to see quite how effective the vaccines are at reducing population risk from Covid, as I suspect policy makers are. Early signs seem to be positive, but after last year I'm not blaming anyone for taking a "one swallow doesn't make a summer" stance.

 

[Domh245]

That would imply we'd learn to love lockdown !

Some clearly have!

 

[DB]

Last summer everything was close to "normal" apart from the restrictions in place of course

Last summer was nothing remotely close to normal - the fact that people are now saying that it was shows just how far the government has succeeded in redefining 'normal'.

it seems unclear quite how far Covid genuinely is a seasonal virus.

On what grounds is this 'unclear'? All the evidence points fairly conclusively to be it being seasonal, just like most other respiratory viruses.

 

[35B]

Last summer was nothing remotely close to normal - the fact that people are now saying that it was shows just how far the government has succeeded in redefining 'normal'.



On what grounds is this 'unclear'? All the evidence points fairly conclusively to be it being seasonal, just like most other respiratory viruses.

Then why have countries such as Israel had patterns of incidence that haven't followed a seasonal pattern?

 

[Domh245]

Then why have countries such as Israel had patterns of incidence that haven't followed a seasonal pattern?

Because they've put lockdowns and other restrictions in place, altering the pattern?

 

[greyman42]

That would imply we'd learn to love lockdown !

Some have learned to love not having to go to work.

 

[Philip Elliott]

Last summer was nothing remotely close to normal - the fact that people are now saying that it was shows just how far the government has succeeded in redefining 'normal'.



On what grounds is this 'unclear'? All the evidence points fairly conclusively to be it being seasonal, just like most other respiratory viruses.

Brazil and India between them have had 390,000 covid deaths - countries that don’t have a winter. The Amazonas region of Brazil is going through is a vety deadly second wave - in the hottest part of the year. Even in the coolest part of the year it is as hot as the hottest month in London (July/23C).

Cases peaked in Saudi Arabia in June where the average daily high in Riyadh is 42C!

Leicester went into local lockdown following a surge in cases at the end of June followed not long after by Rochdale and Oldham.

Spain’s second wave started in August.

Romania’s second wave started in July.

Moldova saw its first substantial drop in cases in December.

Many of the coldest countries in the world have some of the lowest case and death rates - Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Finland

etc etc

 

[DB]

Brazil and India between them have had 390,000 covid deaths - countries that don’t have a winter. The Amazonas region of Brazil is going through is a vety deadly second wave - in the hottest part of the year. Even in the coolest part of the year it is as hot as the hottest month in London (July/23C).

Cases peaked in Saudi Arabia in June where the average daily high in Riyadh is 42C!

Leicester went into local lockdown following a surge in cases at the end of June followed not long after by Rochdale and Oldham.

Spain’s second wave started in August.

Romania’s second wave started in July.

Moldova saw its first substantial drop in cases in December.

Many of the coldest countries in the world have some of the lowest case and death rates - Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Finland

etc etc

Yes, there are some anomalies (very hot countries might well be because of people congregating Indoors).

Still doesn't alter the fact that the very clear trend visible in most of the world is that of a seasonal virus.

 

[kez19]

Last summer was nothing remotely close to normal - the fact that people are now saying that it was shows just how far the government has succeeded in redefining 'normal'.

For me it was at least able to go to gym and travel to Glasgow that’s the only points I say but I agree it wasn’t as close to normal and the over zealous train journey

 

[Bertie the bus]

That, to me, is the key question - what is the impact of vaccinations on the number of people who are infected and need treatment?

It was only a couple of days ago you were singing Jeremy Hunt's praises for demanding lockdown remains until cases drop to 1,000 regardless of the impact of vaccinations.

 

[Lampshade]

Last summer was nothing remotely close to normal - the fact that people are now saying that it was shows just how far the government has succeeded in redefining 'normal'.

This. To suggest it was anywhere near normal would be to completely lose sight of what 'normal' is.

Places like Greater Manchester and Leicester never really left the first lockdown.

 

[Philip Elliott]

Yes, there are some anomalies (very hot countries might well be because of people congregating Indoors).

Still doesn't alter the fact that the very clear trend visible in most of the world is that of a seasonal virus.

We can add in Colombia, Mexico, Bahrain, Kuwait, Laos, Indonesia, New Zealand , Australia, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Florida, Texas, Bolivia, Chile and many more that don’t follow a seasonal virus pattern. Most of them are hot and humid or bone dry - conditions that the likes of influenza, RSV, rhinovirus etc. struggle in but covid is fine. Covid is not like a typical “respiratory virus”.

 

[DB]

We can add in Colombia, Mexico, Bahrain, Kuwait, Laos, Indonesia, New Zealand , Australia, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Florida, Texas, Bolivia, Chile and many more that don’t follow a seasonal virus pattern. Most of them are hot and humid or bone dry - conditions that the likes of influenza, RSV, rhinovirus etc. struggle in but covid is fine. Covid is not like a typical “respiratory virus”.

You can cross out those (Australia, New Zealand, etc) which have prevented it from becoming endemic by closing borders early and stamping it out when it was at a low level. They therefore do not demonstrate how well it does or doesn't spread.

Covid may well spread more than other respiratory viruses in some hot countries (depending on demographics). But that still doesn't alter the fact that in the typical northern hemisphere climate range, where most of the world population is found, it behaves as a typical seasonal virus.

 

[Philip Elliott]

No it doesn’t, lockdowns and human behaviour created the lull in most but not all northen countries in the summer. Again the outbreaks in Leicester, Oldham and Cataluna in June are not typical seasonal virus behaviour.

 

[DB]

No it doesn’t, lockdowns and human behaviour created the lull in most but not all northen countries in the summer. Again the outbreaks in Leicester, Oldham and Cataluna in June are not typical seasonal virus behaviour.

That is not the general pattern at all. In this country, and a lot of others, cases dropped considerably in the summer despite lightening restrictions. Autumn and winter saw cases steadily increasing despite ever more draconian restructions. How does that fit with your theory that it's not seasonal?

Flu and colds are around in the summer too, but at a much lower kevel. Just like we have seen in this case.

 

[initiation]

No it doesn’t, lockdowns and human behaviour created the lull in most but not all northen countries in the summer.

Restrictions were significantly lighter for several months. We had socialising with other households, retail and hospitality operating, hairdressers open, people travelling the country on holiday. There is no way human behaviour in summer involved less contact with other people than it does now.

Again the outbreaks in Leicester, Oldham and Cataluna in June are not typical seasonal virus behaviour.

Not saying that transmission is impossible during the summer but can we just put the summer 'outbreaks' in Leicester and Oldham into some context against winter....

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Oldham is barely a bump on the graph. If you are going to argue a point, at least use examples which support your argument.

 

[yorkie]

Then why have countries such as Israel had patterns of incidence that haven't followed a seasonal pattern?

Because cases of a novel virus can still be high in Summer, especially if it is introduced in Summer or was suppressed before the summer.

Sweden had a natural decrease in the Summer.

This is not a unique situation and you cannot say other seasonal viruses have not behaved this way when a new virus or new strain has appeared.

We can add in Colombia, Mexico, Bahrain, Kuwait, Laos, Indonesia, New Zealand , Australia, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Florida, Texas, Bolivia, Chile and many more that don’t follow a seasonal virus pattern. Most of them are hot and humid or bone dry - conditions that the likes of influenza, RSV, rhinovirus etc. struggle in but covid is fine. Covid is not like a typical “respiratory virus”.

Are you sure people in Florida don't spend a lot of time indoors during the Summer in cool places with air conditioning?

Also, is H1N1 a "typical respitory virus"? If so, how do you explain the high prevalence in the Summer of 2009? If not, I'd be interested to read your list of "typical" respitory viruses?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

No it doesn’t, lockdowns and human behaviour created the lull in most but not all northen countries in the summer. Again the outbreaks in Leicester, Oldham and Cataluna in June are not typical seasonal virus behaviour.

Those that took proportionate measures saw a natural decrease in the Summer

As for Leicester, are you sure the high cases weren't down to particular conditions in certain factories? Also bear in mind places like Leicester were much further behind London and weren't able to have a natural increase in cases as the lockdown effectively came in much earlier in the epidemic than was the case in London.

I'm sure this has all been debated before so I'm not sure why you are bringing this up again.

 

[david1212]

The crunch point will be when the furlough scheme ends (which it has to at some point - they can't keep it going indefinitely).

IMO politically & statistically furlough can not be ended until all businesses are permitted to be open for a month without any restrictions that in some way reduce capacity and hence the number of staff required.

As I recall it is around a month since Matt Hancock made his statement about a normal summer. Yesterday Grant Shapps stated we should not be booking even a UK holiday. This is despite currently expecting by the end of April to have offered all considered medically vulnerable and aged 50 or above their first vaccine injection by the end of April. Allowing at least three weeks for the immunity to build up the logic would be for all businesses to be allowed to open from around 17th May even if initially with restrictions similar to last August. This though seems contrary to the message given yesterday.

About 2 years ago there were lots of articles and reports in the press and tv programmes highlighting the terrible deprivation in some of our seaside towns. Places like Great Yarmouth and Blackpool had areas with some of the highest deprivation and social problems in the country. The hotels, B & B’s, bars, seafront attractions, amusements, gift shops and other entertainment and leisure venues provide the bulk of employment in these towns. The jobs they provide may be seasonal and low paid but at least they are jobs in towns where there is not much alternative employment. The situation in these seaside towns will be absolutely horrific if everything remains closed this summer. Parts of them were already looking neglected and run down with boarded up shops even before this all began.

All those in hospitality and leisure who struggled through the restrictions and curtailed opening last year and are desperately hoping for something at least much nearer to normal and optimistically with staycations a bumper few months must be feeling like they were kicked in the stomach.

 

[takno]

No it doesn’t, lockdowns and human behaviour created the lull in most but not all northen countries in the summer. Again the outbreaks in Leicester, Oldham and Cataluna in June are not typical seasonal virus behaviour.

I do worry that you're starting to come across as somewhat hysterical, desperately throwing out place names and bizarre stats to argue against the overwhelming evidence that throughout Europe Covid acted as a seasonal respiratory disease. What is it you are trying to achieve by denying the basic evidence of the matter?

 

[Yew]

I think both can be true, I think if it were allowed to stabilise, it would be a typical seasonal virus; however in it's first year, it's going to act a little strange.

 

[brad465]

I think both can be true, I think if it were allowed to stabilise, it would be a typical seasonal virus; however in it's first year, it's going to act a little strange.

Yes given it only arrived here at the end of January, very low community immunity levels probably got it going a bit through to the end of March, which was the peak of new infections in that wave going by a peak in deaths in mid-April. After then all that warm sunny weather in April and May will have helped in the visible decline, after which the seasonal influence came in.

 

[Philip Elliott]

I do worry that you're starting to come across as somewhat hysterical, desperately throwing out place names and bizarre stats to argue against the overwhelming evidence that throughout Europe Covid acted as a seasonal respiratory disease. What is it you are trying to achieve by denying the basic evidence of the matter?

There is zero evidence that covid infectiousness is affected by temperature and/or humidity. Prevalence of the virus is linked to changes in human behaviour - particularly with the reopening of schools and universities. In many European countries, the resurgence began in July and August - that is not winter-seasonal virus behaviour. I’m not the one claiming that when the sun comes out, covid will magically disappear - the high prevalence in hot countries shows sunlight is not weakening the virus to any great extent.

 

[HSTEd]

Well it won't matter since the Times is reporting that quasi lockdown will continue at least until autumn.