New DfT rail usage figures, big increase

[dk1]

There are a wide range of variables at play. From past studies, one of the things affecting (both rail and road) is suppressed demand. People divert from the high peak to the shoulders because of the congestion, inability to get a seat, etc. If peak usage drops off these users may then come back to the peak time, and the loading there is as before, it's the shoulder service where you see the drop off.

It seems busier than Fridays peak well before 2020. These had already got much quieter and had been going that way for five or more years previous. Yes we had departures at 17:50 and 18:10 then rather than just 18:00 but especially the latter of those two had really slacked off that was when it wasn’t cancelled due to stock/loco shortages.

 

[The exile]

It seems busier than Fridays peak well before 2020. These had already got much quieter and had been going that way for five or more years previous. Yes we had departures at 17:50 and 18:10 then rather than just 18:00 but especially the latter of those two had really slacked off that was when it wasn’t cancelled due to stock/loco shortages.

Friday evening is always an oddity though - as you have the homeward bound commuters mingling with the outward bound weekenders.

 

[Horizon22]

From here at the City and Canary Wharf, C2C previously carried large loads of what you might call 'support staff' commuters, from Southend, Basildon, etc. Secretaries (Essex Girls ) especially, catering and cafe staff, all of that, these are job positions, unable to work from home, which have reduced days or been eliminated completely. Not everyone at Canary Wharf was an international share trader.

During Covid some of the highest % of passengers retained were around the East End / Essex. Stratford became the busiest station in the country and I recall there being issues with Jubilee and DLR crowding at times with social distancing.

 

[Taunton]

Fridays traditionally often had commuters going home over a wider span. Some in offices traditionally left earlier (POETS Day - Push Off Early Tomorrow's Saturday), others later, crowd going to the pub, or a date (see 'Essex Girls', above!). I wrote here before about how on Fridays, especially in summer, departures from Fenchurch Street at say 2230 would leave full and standing, but minimal formations because much of the stock was put away by that time and nobody seemed to understand the demand pattern. I recall seeing them myself, all squished in, as I was waiting on the DLR platform at Shadwell alongside the C2C line.

 

[Horizon22]

Fridays traditionally often had commuters going home over a wider span. Some in offices traditionally left earlier (POETS Day - Push Off Early Tomorrow's Saturday), others later, crowd going to the pub, or a date (see 'Essex Girls', above!). I wrote here before about how on Fridays, especially in summer, departures from Fenchurch Street at say 2230 would leave full and standing, but minimal formations because much of the stock was put away by that time and nobody seemed to understand the demand pattern. I recall seeing them myself, all squished in, as I was waiting on the DLR platform at Shadwell alongside the C2C line.

A similar issue occurs at Stratford on GA after about 2130 - lots of 5 cars turn up on a very busy platform already well loaded from Liverpool Street with theatre / gig / pub / event traffic that are packed. Elizabeth line and Overground also quite busy too, although the former has a considerable egress at Ilford.

In many ways though Thursday “is the new Friday”. I believe it is the busiest day of the week for TfL.

 

[dk1]

A similar issue occurs at Stratford on GA after about 2130 - lots of 5 cars turn up on a very busy platform already well loaded from Liverpool Street with theatre / gig / pub / event traffic that are packed. Elizabeth line and Overground also quite busy too, although the former has a considerable egress at Ilford.

In many ways though Thursday “is the new Friday”. I believe it is the busiest day of the week for TfL.

The bars and restaurants around Liverpool Street and Broadgate are now as busy on Thursday evenings as they are still on a Friday.

 

[Class 170101]

I think a lot of people go up slowly but surely to London on Friday daytime after the morning peak to make the evening as busy as Friday around Broadgate etc.

 

[Bald Rick]

Fridays always were quieter for commuters - about 20% lower than the rest of the week before 2020 (and that % was growing). That drop has just got bigger. However the leisure traffic increase offsets that in the evening.

 

[victormildrew]

kilometres

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

 

[Stephen42]

Thanks

A few comments to make.

GWR & TPE passenger km's are over 100%, the former isn't a surprise as they lost a lot of services carry a lot of passengers to the Elizabeth Line, however have clearly seen people use their longer distance services more.

The majority of TOC's are closer to the peak when you look at passenger km's vs passenger numbers.

XC still has a noticeable gap between services provided and passenger use, with EMR also looking like they could do with more, although the two which look like they really need more capacity are GWR and LNER.

LNER is one of the outliers due to the Azuma introduction (figures for LNER in table above are based on 2018/2019 before introduction). Numbers sourced from wikipedia (hopefully close enough), an InterCity 225 had capacity of 129 first/406 standard for a total of 535 seats across 9 coaches plus 2 loco/trailer for 11 vehicles per formation. A 9-car Azuma has 101 first/510 standard for a total of 611 seats or a 10-car with 604 seats. That 12% to 14% increase in seated capacity comes with 9% to 18% lower vehicle km. A similar effect will probably take place when the class 897 replace the remaining sets.

EMR should get more capacity once the 810s come into service and XC got additional 221s during this period. There's also the challenge that adding stock (plus crew to drive them) isn't cheap so making the best use of what's available is a part of the equation over expanding as numbers increase. Few operations will be profitable even at the margins when adding more vehicles or services.

If you compare the first and last columns, it is clear that for some operators the average distance travelled has gone up.

GWR average journey about 15% longer, Northern about 8% longer, TPE about 7% longer. (The complete opposite of idea that people buy short tickets to get through barriers)

Taking biggest of these (GWR), they would have lost some Paddington local trains to Elizabeth line, so that suggests their 103.5% passenger km means they are almost certainly higher than pre Covid peak in other areas. I don't know exact proportion of their kilometres that got taken over by Elizabeth line, but must be 1-2%, so means running nearer 105% of pre covid

Sticking with GWR as an example, train km 103.7% is more than train km 97.6%, so on average they have cut train length by over 6%. As their fleet is virtually all fixed formation units, couldn't have taken coaches out, so must be running less units in multiple. And in practice that is what has happened, some 2x5 car IETs reduced to single units, 4&5car DMUs on services to Portsmouth reduced to single 3car units etc.

These days all operators publish performance figures, and these are GWRs latest

https://www.gwr.com/-/media/gwr-sc-website/files/about-gwr/what-you-can-expect/our-performance/GWR-Periodic-Web-Report-P2602.pdf

0.17% shortformed, so the 6.1% cut in train length is not short forming, it is is a timetabled cut of around 6% (even though passenger km is around 105% of pre covid). GWR cut the HST fleet (and a turbo, and some 387s), and gained not a lot (until they put 175s into service) in last 6 years.

What it does seem to flag up, is that although the statistics come out every 3 months, but reaction time to changing passenger numbers is an eternity in comparison. The industry doesn't seem to have the staff numbers or ability to hire in extra rolling stock at 3 months notice to react. It collects the data and isn able to react to them. Even looking at 6 year movement as we are doing now shows they haven't got anywhere near synchronising the train km to passenger flows.

This is publicly available data, internally train companies have far more data in much greater granularity and timeliness. Plenty of interventions can better match capacity to demand while sending the figures here in the wrong direction. It's not necessarily the best outcome to sync to the past when patterns have changed and what came before often didn't focus on the overall result.

That being said the industry will be slow to make large changes; new stock takes time to build, staff training is more complex (and costly) plus the revenue from more passengers often won't offset the costs. The 175s should help and the HST fleet may make the GWR numbers look more unfavourable than they actually are due to how vehicles are counted between loco hauled and multiple unit formations.

 

[Annetts key]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

Motorway distance markers use km and have done for many, many years.
All new railway lines and most resignalling schemes use metres and km.

 

[Starmill]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

We use metres and kilometres for a lot of things here? Not only on roads either...

If it bothers you, you can mentally take away 40% of the number in kilometres to get the approximate number in miles.

 

[victormildrew]

We use metres and kilometres for a lot of things here? Not only on roads either...

If it bothers you, you can mentally take away 40% of the number in kilometres to get the approximate number in miles.

Does not bother me but i use miles and not kms as i do not see it on road signs in Britain do you?.

 

[saismee]

Does not bother me but i use miles and not kms as i do not see it on road signs in Britain do you?.

I think it's a bit of a silly discussion as everything is slowly moving to metric nowadays, including rail infrastructure as Annetts key mentioned earlier.

 

[Starmill]

Does not bother me but i use miles and not kms as i do not see it on road signs in Britain do you?.

Yes it's on all driver location signs and the chevron countdown signs are usually measured in metres. It is a really weird thing to be bothered by.

 

[dk1]

I think it's a bit of a silly discussion as everything is slowly moving to metric nowadays, including rail infrastructure as Annetts key mentioned earlier.

I’m glad everything i deal with on the railway is in miles and chains. oddly enough in exams I always write the safe distance from the running rail is 1.25m for 100mph or less yet safe distance from the OHL is 9ft

 

[urbophile]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

It would make life easier if we did.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Does not bother me but i use miles and not kms as i do not see it on road signs in Britain do you?.

We’re talking about Official Statistics here (yes, they have to be accredited).

Transport Statistics Great Britain has used kilometres at least since the 1965-1975 volume that I’ve just consulted. This includes expressing historical usage figures even back to before the Second World War in passenger km.

Perhaps it’s time to ‘get with the programme’?

 

[The Ham]

I think it's a bit of a silly discussion as everything is slowly moving to metric nowadays, including rail infrastructure as Annetts key mentioned earlier.

All of road design is in metric, other than the distances put on signs.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

The International Yard and Pound Agreement dated 1 July 1959 agreed by Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States defined the yard as exactly 0.9144 meters and the pound as exactly 0.45359237 kilograms. In the United Kingdom this is enacted in the Weights and Measures Act 1963. A mile is therefore by definition 1.609344 km. A chain is 20.1168 metres. When the definition of the metre changed in 1983 to the distance light travels in a vacuum in 1/299,792,458 of a second the definition of the foot, yard, chain and mile all changed at the same time as they are all defined as fixed multiples of the metre.

Miles and chains have historically been used as the units of length and distance on the railway in Great Britain and are still widely used. It is easy to convert between miles and chains and km which are used in the Office of Rail and Road railway data including the latest release published on 12 June 2025.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1963/31/pdfs/ukpga_19630031_en.pdf

Part I UNITS AND STANDARDS OF MEASUREMENT
1. (1) The yard or the metre shall be the unit of measurement Units of length and the pound or the kilogramme shall be the unit of measurement of mass by reference to which any measurement involving measurement of length or mass shall be made in the United Kingdom and—
(a) the yard shall be 0.9144 metre exactly
(b) the pound shall be 0.453 592 37 kilogramme exactly.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Using the ORR data in tables 1243 (train kms) and table 1223 (passenger journeys) I've compared the latest quarterly release to that of Jan to Mar 19 being the least impacted quarter pre Covid. It shows that some operators have a wide discrepancy between train kms being run and passenger journeys. C2C is the biggest outlier running nigh on its pre Covid service yet only attracting three quarters of its pre covid usage. SE isn't much better either although Elizabeth Line will have had some impact. Conversely Cross Country and LNER, disregarding Elizabeth Line, indicate capacity should be boosted. Of course what this doesn't show is what the overall utilisation of each operators usage is by seats available. Anyhow given the DfT now have to contend with a reduced day to day budget over the remainder of the parliament perhaps an analysis on this basis guides where the axe should fall if the passenger income doesn't achieve target.

 

[Bald Rick]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

That depends on the defintion of “we”.

On the railway, “we” use km for almost everything except speed restrictions and the sectional appendix.

I’m glad everything i deal with on the railway is in miles and chains. oddly enough in exams I always write the safe distance from the running rail is 1.25m for 100mph or less yet safe distance from the OHL is 9ft

How do you report a fault on the OLE north of Colchester

 

[43066]

Yes. But I worked with a company that moved its back office operations from South East London to the Isle of Bute!

But what’s happening is that large businesses in London are once again insisting that staff return to the office, and there isn’t much sign of them wanting to relocate offices or functions to other regional parts of the UK.

There are good reasons for this - availability of talent, prestige of address etc. London is expensive not by accident, but because of insatiable demand to live and work there.

Fridays traditionally often had commuters going home over a wider span. Some in offices traditionally left earlier (POETS Day - Push Off Early Tomorrow's Saturday), others later, crowd going to the pub, or a date (see 'Essex Girls', above!). I wrote here before about how on Fridays, especially in summer, departures from Fenchurch Street at say 2230 would leave full and standing, but minimal formations because much of the stock was put away by that time and nobody seemed to understand the demand pattern. I recall seeing them myself, all squished in, as I was waiting on the DLR platform at Shadwell alongside the C2C line.

And of course “Thursday is the new Friday” has been a “thing” for a long time.

 

[quantinghome]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

We use kms formally and informally for a whole variety of things in Great Britain, and have done for many decades. I ran the Leeds 10k yesterday; no one had to explain what that meant.

But as far as this discussion is concerned, given we're talking about % change, it makes no difference at all what unit of distance is used.

 

[swt_passenger]

Is HeX included in GWR (as they are the actual operator)?

No, in the source tables there are separate entries for the four main open access operators, (ie HT, GC, Lumo, and HEx), they all come after all the ‘normal’ TOCs.

 

[43066]

Why not in miles, as we do not use kms in Great Britain?.

Don’t we? HS1 is in Great Britain and has displayed distances and speeds in kms since it opened.

Crossrail/TL also use them to an extent in the “cores”, and various tram systems also do.

I ran the Leeds 10k yesterday; no one had to explain what that meant.

A warm day for it! I’m the same; all things running related make sense only in kms.

 

[quantinghome]

A warm day for it! I’m the same; all things running related make sense only in kms.

Wasn't too bad at 9am. Being GenX I'm comfortable with either miles or km, but kms are better psychologically. Bigger number means you've run further init!!

 

[Krokodil]

Don’t we? HS1 is in Great Britain and has displayed distances and speeds in kms since it opened.

Crossrail/TL also use them to an extent in the “cores”, and various tram systems also do.

London Underground has used km as standard for a lot longer than that.

 

[JamesT]

A warm day for it! I’m the same; all things running related make sense only in kms.

Unless you're Roger Bannister

 

[absolutelymilk]

FYI the passenger km for 2024/25 were 95% of the pre-Covid record, whereas passenger numbers were 99% of the record (presumably due to both split ticketing and the Elizabeth line massively increasing passenger numbers but not having so much of an effect on passenger km)