New 4-tier system for England

[DelayRepay]

Whilst you may feel like you're the only person finding it hard most of us are on our own way.

I know it's not just me. I know lots of people are in the same position. I know some are in a worse position. Unfortunately I have reached the stage where 'we're all in this together', 'things are just a little different right now' and 'virtual' everything no longer cut the mustard.

There was something in the paper yesterday suggesting that early humans may have gone into hibernation during the winter. That sounds like quite an attractive option at the moment!

 

[The Ham]

On the timelines question I think there is reason to be somewhat optimistic that in the speed with which the vaccine could produce results.

If we say that after 10 million people you have hit quite a lot of the priority groups (that would likely get you to the 65+ age group at least) then because of the features of the virus most of the risk of putting pressure on the NHS goes away - about 90% of deaths are in the over 65 group.

You might want to keep some of the less invasive preventative measures in place a little longer (e..g masks in enclosed spaces) but at that point I would hope you go to a much more guidance based system as the most vulnerable will have been protected.

Doesn't mean it will be instant but perhaps March instead of May.

Given that the flu vaccine is given to 40 million people in 6 months, that's 20 million given their two doses of Covid vaccine.

If we're needing to do the top 10 million, then that's 3 months, so by the end of March (subject to supply).

However the vast majority of flu vaccines are done within 4 months (few in September or February) and so that should mean that we could shorten the expected rollout to 2 months, so the end of February.

That's subject to supply and could be sped up by other measures.

I know it's not just me. I know lots of people are in the same position. I know some are in a worse position. Unfortunately I have reached the stage where 'we're all in this together', 'things are just a little different right now' and 'virtual' everything no longer cut the mustard.

There was something in the paper yesterday suggesting that early humans may have gone into hibernation during the winter. That sounds like quite an attractive option at the moment!

Fair enough, when do you want us to wake you up from your hibernation?

Just make sure that you've sorted out any birthday cards for key friends/family for whilst you're asleep, we wouldn't want you getting into trouble for missing them!!!

 

[philosopher]

I admire your optimism but when the government themselves are talking about April, and then start dropping summer into the conversation, I can see us being several months away from any proper relaxation of restrictions. I honestly think it depends on what they WANT to happen. They may rather enjoy the level of control they now have over the population, and with enough people believing their every word they could easily find reasons to keep this going for as long as they like. Far fetched? Perhaps, but we shouldn’t ignore their actions up to this point; the warning signs are there.

Now they have this new strain that has resulted in the UK government and other European governments panicking like headless chickens to justify keeping the restrictions for longer.

 

[DustyBin]

Now they have this new strain that has resulted in the UK government and other European governments panicking like headless chickens to justify keeping the restrictions for longer.

It’s absolutely crazy. I’m waiting for a vaccine resistant mutation, there was an ‘expert’ on the news last night warning that this is a very real possibility. Or wait until somebody who’s had the vaccine contracts covid and dies, that really will lead to hysterics.

 

[Bantamzen]

It’s absolutely crazy. I’m waiting for a vaccine resistant mutation, there was an ‘expert’ on the news last night warning that this is a very real possibility. Or wait until somebody who’s had the vaccine contracts covid and dies, that really will lead to hysterics.

I fear we are reaching a point where we might never be allowed back to normality. "The virus is still out there, we cannot return to normal until we beat it".

 

[adc82140]

It’s absolutely crazy. I’m waiting for a vaccine resistant mutation, there was an ‘expert’ on the news last night warning that this is a very real possibility. Or wait until somebody who’s had the vaccine contracts covid and dies, that really will lead to hysterics.

If there is a vaccine escape mutation, which is entirely possible, then the vaccine will have to be tweaked, which the developers have said is simple. Therefore a worst case scenario is a new vaccine every year, like the flu jab.

In practical terms, the flu mutates far quicker than this does. The R0 of flu is also significantly higher (something like 7 compared to Covid's 3-4). Yet even without the flu jab, you'd be unlucky to get it twice in one season.

 

[Smidster]

Now they have this new strain that has resulted in the UK government and other European governments panicking like headless chickens to justify keeping the restrictions for longer.

I will never understand the assertion that Governments *want* to keep restrictions in place - they absolutely do not as even the most idiotic of leaders (like ours) know the damage it is doing to the economy and peoples livelihoods. They would absolutely love to open everything up tomorrow and have 70,000 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day but they also know that if they did that things would get much worse from a health stand point and whether we like or not people would die as a result and even if we are talking about vulnerable people that is still people dying before they might otherwise have done which is something Governments are right to want to avoid especially as we are really close to a solution.

We also know that at this time of year it really doesn't take too much in the way of additional pressure to break the health system completely - there isn't the slack to deal with major surges.

The criticism of Whitty / Vallance also frustrates me - We need to remember that they are Medics / Scientists and providing advice against that backdrop. They make recommendations based on the health impact alone. It is for others to argue to the economic / societal perspectives and then for the politicians to make the decision about what they judge more important. They might not have got everything right since March but they know a heck of a lot more about this stuff than any of us

 

[The Ham]

It’s absolutely crazy. I’m waiting for a vaccine resistant mutation, there was an ‘expert’ on the news last night warning that this is a very real possibility. Or wait until somebody who’s had the vaccine contracts covid and dies, that really will lead to hysterics.

Deaths from Covid after having had a vaccine would still be possible, but they would be fairly unlikely.

With regards to a mutation which made it vaccine resistant would be unlikely as the vaccine targets the spikes and not the virus itself. As such the virus would have to change significantly so as to no longer have spikes or at least have changed the spike protein DNA.

However if that happened the change to the Oxford vaccine could be reprogrammed within 48 hours (like the first one was) and then it's a case of determining if that reprogramming has impacted on the safety of the vaccine. Which should be fairly easy to prove (and therefore should be easier and quicker than the original). As it's the generic code which will have changed, whilst the ingredients remain unchanged (something which is overlooked by those complaining about potential long term side effects not being known, as it's been in development for some time and been tested with other DNA code before).

If the first vaccine showed proof of concept, it may well be that the regulator may being in other testing methodology for updates to the DNA code, rather than it needing to pass through the whole process.

If that happens then future vaccines could be rolled out much more rapidly.

The other lead vaccines could be recoded in a similar way, and could be used for other purposes (BioNTech were already looking to use its one for cancer vaccines). With a shorter approval process, it could mean that a cancer vaccine could be being delivered by 2025 rather than after 2030.

 

[Bantamzen]

I will never understand the assertion that Governments *want* to keep restrictions in place - they absolutely do not as even the most idiotic of leaders (like ours) know the damage it is doing to the economy and peoples livelihoods. They would absolutely love to open everything up tomorrow and have 70,000 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day but they also know that if they did that things would get much worse from a health stand point and whether we like or not people would die as a result and even if we are talking about vulnerable people that is still people dying before they might otherwise have done which is something Governments are right to want to avoid especially as we are really close to a solution.

We also know that at this time of year it really doesn't take too much in the way of additional pressure to break the health system completely - there isn't the slack to deal with major surges.

That is at best naïve. Of course governments will want to keep restrictions in place when it means they can shift the blame for their bad decisions. And in this country we have a significant event happening in a couple of weeks, meaning that they can bury any bad news as a result and blame you & I for it.

The criticism of Whitty / Vallance also frustrates me - We need to remember that they are Medics / Scientists and providing advice against that backdrop. They make recommendations based on the health impact alone. It is for others to argue to the economic / societal perspectives and then for the politicians to make the decision about what they judge more important. They might not have got everything right since March but they know a heck of a lot more about this stuff than any of us

We also have to remember that they are not the only people in this field, science isn't a fixed point, it scrutinises, it questions, it evolves. Whitty & Vallance have sadly become fixated on being the ones who "beat" the virus, the problem being is that we cannot beat it, at least not for a very long time.

 

[Class 33]

How long can we expect tier 4 to last for?

There are reports that Tier 4 could last as long as 4 months. How an earth the government expects people living in Tier 4 restrictions/lockdown for that long a period I really do not know. For many it will be absolutely mental torture, especially for people who live alone and suffer from loneliness. Grim as it is, sadly a number of these such people will commit suicide. Is the government not concerned about the severe effects this will have on their mental health? It seems not apparently. It's absolutely disgraceful. Plus sadly come 30th December I expect they will go and upgrade more areas to Tier 4 restrictions/lockdown to start on New Year's Day.

As I said before, it's like the government are playing a computer strategy/god game like Sim City or Civilization or something. Chopping and changing their strategies if something doesn't work how they planned, imposing tougher strategies for longer periods, etc. But with this, they are playing with REAL people's lives. They are wrecking the economy, wrecking livelihoods, wrecking people's lives, and wrecking the country.

But with these vaccines being miraculously developed in record time and already over half a million people being vaccinated already, I really do not see how they could possibly keep all these Tiered restrictions/lockdowns for as long as another 4 months yet. I expect by late January the effect of all these ongoing vaccinations should really be taking effect, and the number of Coronavirus hospital admissions, number of people in hospital and deaths should really be absolutely plumetting. And from then, they really need to scrap all these Tiered restrictions/lockdowns along with the scrapping of social distancing and face masking wearing requirements soon after, in order to get life finally back to normal by Easter. Johnson recently said the Tiered system has a "sunset" of 3rd February, and that there will be a vote in parliament on 27th January for whether it should continue beyond then until the end of March. When this parliament vote takes place I really hope enough MP's have enough sense to vote against this system continuing.

We've got these vaccines being rolled out, but in fact all the restrictions are currently getting worst! If no vaccines will be found, I really dread to think what would become of this country. The government would have these tough lockdowns going on forever, along with the ridiculous social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense. A lot of people just wouldn't be able to take all this very long term, and would decide to give up.......

 

[DustyBin]

If there is a vaccine escape mutation, which is entirely possible, then the vaccine will have to be tweaked, which the developers have said is simple. Therefore a worst case scenario is a new vaccine every year, like the flu jab.

In practical terms, the flu mutates far quicker than this does. The R0 of flu is also significantly higher (something like 7 compared to Covid's 3-4). Yet even without the flu jab, you'd be unlucky to get it twice in one season.

I wouldn’t argue with any of that, but I’m not sure they’ll let these facts get in the way of a good (scare) story!

 

[C J Snarzell]

The Human Rights Act needs to be destroyed or burned for what use it us now because Boris Johnson has certainly breached a couple of Articles in the last few days.

CJ

 

[DustyBin]

Deaths from Covid after having had a vaccine would still be possible, but they would be fairly unlikely.

With regards to a mutation which made it vaccine resistant would be unlikely as the vaccine targets the spikes and not the virus itself. As such the virus would have to change significantly so as to no longer have spikes or at least have changed the spike protein DNA.

However if that happened the change to the Oxford vaccine could be reprogrammed within 48 hours (like the first one was) and then it's a case of determining if that reprogramming has impacted on the safety of the vaccine. Which should be fairly easy to prove (and therefore should be easier and quicker than the original). As it's the generic code which will have changed, whilst the ingredients remain unchanged (something which is overlooked by those complaining about potential long term side effects not being known, as it's been in development for some time and been tested with other DNA code before).

If the first vaccine showed proof of concept, it may well be that the regulator may being in other testing methodology for updates to the DNA code, rather than it needing to pass through the whole process.

If that happens then future vaccines could be rolled out much more rapidly.

The other lead vaccines could be recoded in a similar way, and could be used for other purposes (BioNTech were already looking to use its one for cancer vaccines). With a shorter approval process, it could mean that a cancer vaccine could be being delivered by 2025 rather than after 2030.

Thanks, I appreciate your detailed posts.

What I was getting at is that statistically it’s very likely vaccinated people will die WITH covid.... How they choose to report this will determine the reaction. It’s the old with vs from question all over again....

 

[6862]

I fear we are reaching a point where we might never be allowed back to normality. "The virus is still out there, we cannot return to normal until we beat it".

We passed that point back in March.

 

[joncombe]

I'm a bit in two minds about where this is going next. My real concern is that it will be found that the vaccines are not effective against this new variant. We are back to the situation last March. In this case I would hope a new vaccine could be created and approved more quickly. As this variant does appear to spread more quickly it is also possible that in the meantime we will reach herd immunity before any new vacine is rolled out. I am not convinced tier 4 will make much difference to the spread. However it would likely mean at least another year of severe restrictions I fear.

The other side could be that the vaccine(s) already developed are still successful. Now with the situation of other countries closing off their borders to the UK (and the issues this will cause for food supply) the Government will need to massively speed up the deployment of the vaccines (they should have been doing that already in my view), in order to reduce cases and hopefully get the borders open again. There will be intense pressure to do that, to get supply chains open. I think tier 4 will spread quite rapidly and most of the country will be under these restrictions in a couple of weeks. That further increases the case for hastening deployment. It is possible therefore the net result is we get out of this mess sooner than was the case a week or so ago.

 

[adc82140]

Any vaccine alterations would take 48 hours or so, plus manufacturing time. Not the end of the world.

 

[DB]

Any vaccine alterations would take 48 hours or so, plus manufacturing time. Not the end of the world.

Given the stockpile already manufactured, how long would it set things back if another lot had to be done?

 

[adc82140]

It'd probably be the same rollout speed as now, as the Pfizer one is being manufactured on demand, rather than the mass rollout as promised by the Oxford one. But all academic at the moment, as there is no evidence that the current formulations are ineffective.

 

[DerekC]

The Human Rights Act needs to be destroyed or burned for what use it us now because Boris Johnson has certainly breached a couple of Articles in the last few days.

CJ

Well, that would tie in nicely with what BJ and his friends want - a situation where they can make their minds up what human rights we have as they go along, as they do with everything else.

 

[initiation]

I am not convinced tier 4 will make much difference to the spread.

This. The tier 4 rules are essentially the same as the Novemeber lockdown 2. The Gov have cited that increasing South East infections during lockdown 2 was a indicator of the new virus strain. So what do they do, they implement the same rules again! The ones that didn't 'control' the virus in the first place.

 

[philosopher]

Well, that would tie in nicely with what BJ and his friends want - a situation where they can make their minds up what human rights we have as they go along, as they do with everything else.

I reckon these measures may violate the the ‘Right to a private and family life’ article of the Human Rights Act. The act does have a clause that this right can be interfered with if it is to protect Health and Morals, however it has to be proportionate.

From how I think law works, if someone visits their family, gets caught and gets fined and they challenge the fine on the basis that it violates a right to a family life, it would then be up to a judge to decide if these lockdowns are a proportionate response.

 

[Yew]

I reckon these measures may violate the the ‘Right to a private and family life’ article of the Human Rights Act. The act does have a clause that this right can be interfered with if it is to protect Health and Morals, however it has to be proportionate.

From how I think law works, if someone visits their family, gets caught and gets fined and they challenge the fine on the basis that it violates a right to a family life, it would then be up to a judge to decide if these lockdowns are a proportionate response.

Indeed, given that the PHA requires the 'least invasive measures possible ' an argument could be made that should be required to follow the recommendations of the Great Barrington Declaration, rather than any more restrictive methods.

 

[adc82140]

Just been on the IOW ferry heading back to the mainland. It was rammed with foot passengers carrying enormous suitcases and Xmas pressies. Lots of HW plate cars packed to the gunwhales. I think the rules are being ignored now. They've gone too far, and the public are started to rebel.

There also seems to be a spat between Hancock and the police federation about enforcing the rules. Hancock is saying they ust, the police federation is saying they won't.

 

[joncombe]

There also seems to be a spat between Hancock and the police federation about enforcing the rules. Hancock is saying they ust, the police federation is saying they won't.

The police are there to enforce the law. Not some "rules" that are not written into law. So the police are quite right.

 

[Merseysider]

Just been on the IOW ferry heading back to the mainland. It was rammed with foot passengers carrying enormous suitcases and Xmas pressies. Lots of HW plate cars packed to the gunwhales. I think the rules are being ignored now. They've gone too far, and the public are started to rebel.

As was I! The ferry over to IOW was absolutely packed, as was Newport town centre over the weekend (queues just to get into the Wetherspoons, etc).

Apparently some venues have been checking postcodes to stop ‘mainlanders’ entering bars, others have just served anyone.

Even those on the island I spoke to were sick of the tiers & the government dictating how to live their lives, despite being in Tier 1.

 

[adc82140]

As was I! The ferry over to IOW was absolutely packed, as was Newport town centre over the weekend (queues just to get into the Wetherspoons, etc).

Apparently some venues have been checking postcodes to stop ‘mainlanders’ entering bars, others have just served anyone.

Even those on the island I spoke to were sick of the tiers & the government dictating how to live their lives, despite being in Tier 1.

We had a meal in a pub in Gurnard yesterday. They weren't fussed where we came from. We were on the Yarmouth to Lymington ferry this morning and the loading were like mid summer.

 

[Crossover]

For all the talk of tiers, Leeds was rammed yesterday. Briggate in particular was very busy, probably made moreso by the street market etc.

All the tiers do have non-numerical names as well - 1 is "medium alert", 2 is "high alert", 3 is "very high alert" and 4 is "stay at home"

The beeb hasn't apparently got the name of tier 4 yet, which makes this graphic oddly amusing.

I might start using 'tier x' in place of superlatives in future

It reminds me somewhat of the PIS screens when a "translation" hasn't been put in for a TIPLOC code

Good point. Mass testing has started in London and the South East, has it not?

Mass testing in parts of West (at least) Yorkshire, too.

 

[Class 33]

Another news conference again today! For crying out loud!!! What is it now??? I can't take much more of this.

Things have to start getting better soon. This is an absolute joke. This is just wearing me down so much this is. I'm holding out as well as I can through all this in the hope that things will start getting progressively easier soon and normal life is back by April. If we get to April and this nonsense is still dragging on with still no end in sight, then I think I will just not be able to take it any longer, and call it a day with my life. That's how I feel.

 

[adc82140]

Another news conference again today! For crying out loud!!! What is it now??? I can't take much more of this.

Things have to start getting better soon. This is an absolute joke. This is just wearing me down so much this is. I'm holding out as well as I can through all this in the hope that things will start getting progressively easier soon and normal life is back by April. If we get to April and this nonsense is still dragging on with still no end in sight, then I think I will just not be able to take it any longer, and call it a day with my life. That's how I feel.

The news conference will be to try (and fail) to explain his ineptitude over the border closures, and to attempt to keep the bog roll bandits at bay. (Andrex is made in Essex BTW so not affected by the border)

 

[HSTEd]

I will never understand the assertion that Governments *want* to keep restrictions in place - they absolutely do not as even the most idiotic of leaders (like ours) know the damage it is doing to the economy and peoples livelihoods.

Why would they care about the livelihoods of the peasants?

They would absolutely love to open everything up tomorrow and have 70,000 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day but they also know that if they did that things would get much worse from a health stand point and whether we like or not people would die as a result

The continuance of the eternal lockdown kills people

The Government just prefers to kill the young and poor than the old and rich.

The criticism of Whitty / Vallance also frustrates me - We need to remember that they are Medics / Scientists and providing advice against that backdrop. They make recommendations based on the health impact alone. It is for others to argue to the economic / societal perspectives and then for the politicians to make the decision about what they judge more important. They might not have got everything right since March but they know a heck of a lot more about this stuff than any of us

If I had done half the things Whitty and Valance had done I would have my career destroyed by academic malpractice accusations.

They have gone long beyond "giving advice" - they now go to the press and rant .
They misuse and outright fabricate data to justify the conclusions they already wanted to make, and they go out of their way to mislead the public and the political class.