New 4-tier system for England

[NorthKent1989]

That does not make sense. The usual advice is very much to open windows.

That’s what the University told him

 

[hwl]

Seems to be rather short of a fully peer-reviewed paper though.

You wouldn't get that for several months, time is of the essence.

 

[peters]

That’s what the University told him

Are there a lot of people walking past outside the building or something?

 

[hwl]

The R0 value of the "legacy" virus has been much higher than 1.0 at various times, so I'm really not sure what your point is.

Ignore R0 in the first instance.
The point Whitty made was that if Rcurrent for the older strain and certain restrictions was 1.0 then Rcurrent for new strain appears to be 1.4. The transmission rate of the new strain is much higher estimated to be much higher (70%).

Now looking at R0, the latest Imperial estimate for Feb-March 2020 before the government acted was R0=3.9 (this aligns with a lot of newer higher quality work looking at R0). If the new variant R0 is higher by 40% (ie. same as 1.4 vs 1.0 then R0 for the new variant would be 5.4-5.5.
With all the restrictions in place, R0 for the new strain can't be measured directly.

Looking at vaccination, a higher R0 increases the level of vaccination required to achieve herds immunity effects. We have no data on how well vaccination decreases transmission for either the old or new variants.

 

[Bantamzen]

Ignore R0 in the first instance.
The point Whitty made was that if Rcurrent for the older strain and certain restrictions was 1.0 then Rcurrent for new strain appears to be 1.4. The transmission rate of the new strain is much higher estimated to be much higher (70%).

Now looking at R0, the latest Imperial estimate for Feb-March 2020 before the government acted was R0=3.9 (this aligns with a lot of newer higher quality work looking at R0). If the new variant R0 is higher by 40% (ie. same as 1.4 vs 1.0 then R0 for the new variant would be 5.4-5.5.
With all the restrictions in place, R0 for the new strain can't be measured directly.

Looking at vaccination, a higher R0 increases the level of vaccination required to achieve herds immunity effects. We have no data on how well vaccination decreases transmission for either the old or new variants.

Ok, so fair enough. However why is this variant so much more concerning when it seems that it has no worse an effect on the population that the previous strain? It doesn't change how many people we need to vaccinate in order to protect them.

 

[Yew]

You wouldn't get that for several months, time is of the essence.

Preliminary results without proper oversight are no basis for government policy.

 

[cactustwirly]

You wouldn't get that for several months, time is of the essence.

So how do we know the science is reliable if it hasn't been peer reviewed?

 

[43096]

Preliminary results without proper oversight are no basis for government policy.

Especially given the record the experts have for dodgy data during this pandemic.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I am fast losing all hope after hearing the dimwit Hanckock this morning, expecting us to live like this for months on end. I will not go back to living like we did in March and April. My only glimmer of hope is hancock often gets slapped down after shooting his mouth off. And based on public behaviour whilst out'n'about today, I can't see the public complying unless a very real carrot is offered, no matter what the polls say.

If this new mutant really is this transmissible, most of these control measures will make no difference by the look of it.

 

[takno]

Ignore R0 in the first instance.
The point Whitty made was that if Rcurrent for the older strain and certain restrictions was 1.0 then Rcurrent for new strain appears to be 1.4. The transmission rate of the new strain is much higher estimated to be much higher (70%).

Now looking at R0, the latest Imperial estimate for Feb-March 2020 before the government acted was R0=3.9 (this aligns with a lot of newer higher quality work looking at R0). If the new variant R0 is higher by 40% (ie. same as 1.4 vs 1.0 then R0 for the new variant would be 5.4-5.5.
With all the restrictions in place, R0 for the new strain can't be measured directly.

Looking at vaccination, a higher R0 increases the level of vaccination required to achieve herds immunity effects. We have no data on how well vaccination decreases transmission for either the old or new variants.

Vaccinating for herd immunity is simply not an option. It's likely to take 2 years and we can't stay in that long. All we can usefully do with a vaccine is vaccinate as many of the vulnerable as possible and hope for the best. A new strain taking the herd immunity threshold from 60% to 70% makes no difference to that at all.

 

[SS4]

Blooming hell, YouGov's polls are getting worse:

- 74% support the introduction of Tier 4 for parts of England vs just 17% say they are opposed

- 67% support the Christmas rules changes vs 25% opposed

- 61% say gov has badly handled covid Xmas rules vs 33% say they have handled it well

The last one is the only one I can agree with there.

Judging by the reactions to a couple of tweets I put up yesterday decrying the new rules (in replies to news articles so there shouldn't be too much bias), the first two should be reversed at least.

In part that is due to a complete lack of scrutiny over these new rules. There is nowhere to get independent information - the cases are available online (depending on how far you trust gov.uk anyway) but there is no rationale given for the measures taken. I wouldn't trust the news to tell me the sky is blue or night follows day at the moment. It was more prevalent in the US but notice how the WHO has been accused of being in the pocket of China as soon as they (the US) wanted to diverge from their advice.

Those pictures of traffic jams and packed public transport are exactly what the government want - an excuse to blame the population for their own confusing and hasty decisions. Meanwhile parliament is already safely at home because heaven forbid a global pandemic stops them from doing their job.

It frightens me the lack of respect Boris has for democracy. From his party supporting FPTP in 2011 [a system barely fit for the 19th century], to the attempted prorogation last year to stop them voting on brexit, to refusing to recall them in a global pandemic and our imminent departure from the EU transition period.

I am fast losing all hope after hearing the dimwit Hanckock this morning, expecting us to live like this for months on end. I will not go back to living like we did in March and April. My only glimmer of hope is hancock often gets slapped down after shooting his mouth off. And based on public behaviour whilst out'n'about today, I can't see the public complying unless a very real carrot is offered, no matter what the polls say.

If this new mutant really is this transmissible, most of these control measures will make no difference by the look of it.

Who will shoot him down? The press certainly won't - they've <insert NSFW metaphor here> since the start of the pandemic


Conveniently, all this talk of restrictions has been a fine distraction from the no deal brexit Boris has wanted since 2016...

 

[hwl]

The rise in R value doesn't explain why such restrictions need to be in place once the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Such restrictions could only really be justified if the virus was a much greater risk of severity to a greater proportion of the population, however this doesn't appear to be the case.

a) The vaccine will not help everyone vaccinated potentially 95% but we have not data for the older most vulnerable proportions being vaccinated to begin with.
b) The case rates and hence hospitalisation rate in the lower age groups who aren't vaccinated, will be higher.
If the majority of restrictions are removed the hospitalisation rate due to a & b combined will still cause huge issues for the NHS.

Kent, Essex and East London have shown that Tier 3 restrictions can't hold or reduce the new variant case rate (so unlike the older variants)

The new high transmissibility means the ability to keep it out of vulnerable groups (already shown to be impossible) has decreased.

 

[DustyBin]

I am fast losing all hope after hearing the dimwit Hanckock this morning, expecting us to live like this for months on end. I will not go back to living like we did in March and April. My only glimmer of hope is hancock often gets slapped down after shooting his mouth off. And based on public behaviour whilst out'n'about today, I can't see the public complying unless a very real carrot is offered, no matter what the polls say.

If this new mutant really is this transmissible, most of these control measures will make no difference by the look of it.

I know the feeling.... Some of us saw this coming a mile off, I expect another strain to emerge at some point that renders the vaccine(s) useless.

 

[cactustwirly]

Vaccinating for herd immunity is simply not an option. It's likely to take 2 years and we can't stay in that long. All we can usefully do with a vaccine is vaccinate as many of the vulnerable as possible and hope for the best. A new strain taking the herd immunity threshold from 60% to 70% makes no difference to that at all.

And the virus is very likely to mutate into several strains by that time anyway.

Tier 4 is a very bad sticking plaster solution to this anyway, who's to say that the virus in "the north" won't mutate and become more infectious?

 

[hwl]

Vaccinating for herd immunity is simply not an option. It's likely to take 2 years and we can't stay in that long. All we can usefully do with a vaccine is vaccinate as many of the vulnerable as possible and hope for the best. A new strain taking the herd immunity threshold from 60% to 70% makes no difference to that at all.

It does and they hope to get to that level by Septmeber but restrictions can be reduced far earlier than that point, the weather will also help in few months.

 

[brad465]

I would not always take what Matt Hancock says too literally but infection rates have to come down by quite alot I feel before any tier 4 areas has to move into tier 3.

Infact to be honest, I think all areas will move into tier 4 soon enough and a hard lockdown to be put in place. Going to be a grim few months but we knew that anyways, we all been told the winter months was going to be tough.

I wouldn't be surprised if, at least when it comes to duration, we get in a situation like Victoria (AUS) earlier this year with a long running lockdown, which I saw was 112 days for at least Melbourne. Given this was in their winter it makes sense that the situation here won't improve until the spring. Some differences here that we may experience include that we're much further down the line in the pandemic, so tolerance will be much lower, and they essentially went for very low suppression, where it was only when zero new cases were being recorded that the lockdown ended, levels that we probably can't achieve until herd immunity if it's possible. Another major difference is we have a vaccine that will hopefully work, so once many of the vulnerable population have got it it will be much harder to try and justify being in lockdown.

 

[SS4]

Tier 4 is a very bad sticking plaster solution to this anyway, who's to say that the virus in "the north" won't mutate and become more infectious?

Given the disdain Whitehall has had for anywhere outside the south east for decades I doubt they care

 

[hwl]

And the virus is very likely to mutate into several strains by that time anyway.

Tier 4 is a very bad sticking plaster solution to this anyway, who's to say that the virus in "the north" won't mutate and become more infectious?

The new variant will become dominant there within a few weeks just as it has done in London and South East.

 

[duncanp]

And no doubt the next review of the tiers will put the whole of England into Tier 4.

This will happen on December 30th, so that the government doesn't have the pesky inconvenience of having to justify their reasons before parliament, or have the data they use to make decisions subject to indpendent scrutiny.

If the whole of England is put into Tier 4, the parliament should be recalled as a matter of urgency.

The government should then be forced to specify exit criteria for Tier 4, and give a likely timescale as to when this might happen.

There simply is no way that anywhere can remain in Tier 4 until everyone has been vaccinated - that could take months, and the effect on mental health and the economy is unthinkable.

People might be prepared to endure Tier 4 if they can see an end date.

But there simply is no way that most people will tolerate an open ended lockdown for months on end.

 

[philosopher]

The internal government report from Friday - not public. The PHE report analysed transmission rates of the new strain along with modelling of the implications.

Or higher levels of mutation in hospitalised immunocompromised patients.? if the latter then here is an example in NEJM earlier this month:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364

Interesting theory. If this theory is the case then it sounds like the new strain could have been prevented by only discharging patients when they had tested negative twice.

 

[bramling]

Worth pointing out that it is the same system as before in that you need a reasonable excuse to leave home. The legislation (from which the guidance derives) lists many things which will automatically be considered a reasonable excuse, but that doesn't mean that other things cannot be reasonable.

In practice it will be just as unenforceable as the November lockdown.

Would there be a legal basis to turn people around if they went for a long drive out of the area to partake in outdoor recreation? Say if someone drove from London to something like the Monsal Trail?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

And no doubt the next review of the tiers will put the whole of England into Tier 4.

This will happen on December 30th, so that the government doesn't have the pesky inconvenience of having to justify their reasons before parliament, or have the data they use to make decisions subject to indpendent scrutiny.

If the whole of England is put into Tier 4, the parliament should be recalled as a matter of urgency.

The government should then be forced to specify exit criteria for Tier 4, and give a likely timescale as to when this might happen.

There simply is no way that anywhere can remain in Tier 4 until everyone has been vaccinated - that could take months, and the effect on mental health and the economy is unthinkable.

People might be prepared to endure Tier 4 if they can see an end date.

But there simply is no way that most people will tolerate an open ended lockdown for months on end.

Its obvious everywhere will be in T4 by the end of December. Meanwhile still no news on Brexit - which makes me thing we are heading for either no deal or a Boris climb down.

 

[yorksrob]

a) The vaccine will not help everyone vaccinated potentially 95% but we have not data for the older most vulnerable proportions being vaccinated to begin with.
b) The case rates and hence hospitalisation rate in the lower age groups who aren't vaccinated, will be higher.
If the majority of restrictions are removed the hospitalisation rate due to a & b combined will still cause huge issues for the NHS.

Kent, Essex and East London have shown that Tier 3 restrictions can't hold or reduce the new variant case rate (so unlike the older variants)

The new high transmissibility means the ability to keep it out of vulnerable groups (already shown to be impossible) has decreased.

The new variant will become dominant there within a few weeks just as it has done in London and South East.

They'd better start knocking out the vaccines sharpish, because people won't stay in lockdown for months on end.

 

[Bertie the bus]

The new variant will become dominant there within a few weeks just as it has done in London and South East.

You're very good at quoting spurious things as fact, so perhaps you could answer this question:

If we put the timing of the restrictions and the new strain in the South East to one side, yesterday they said it is mainly a London and South East problem and they want to reduce the spread so people in those areas shouldn't travel. So far, so good. However, if it is a London and South East problem which they want to contain, and no new restrictions have been implemented anywhere else in England, how does that problem cause Christmas for everybody else to be reduced from 5 days to 1?

 

[hwl]

And no doubt the next review of the tiers will put the whole of England into Tier 4.

This will happen on December 30th, so that the government doesn't have the pesky inconvenience of having to justify their reasons before parliament, or have the data they use to make decisions subject to indpendent scrutiny.

If the whole of England is put into Tier 4, the parliament should be recalled as a matter of urgency.

The government should then be forced to specify exit criteria for Tier 4, and give a likely timescale as to when this might happen.

There simply is no way that anywhere can remain in Tier 4 until everyone has been vaccinated - that could take months, and the effect on mental health and the economy is unthinkable.

People might be prepared to endure Tier 4 if they can see an end date.

But there simply is no way that most people will tolerate an open ended lockdown for months on end.

Assuming covid vaccines reduce transmission rates (no data yet) then interesting things happen to overall transmission rates when you start getting to around 20% with mass vaccination which would be mid April time assuming they get the Oxford / AZ vaccine approved and roll out started on 1/1/2021 based on their planned 2 million singles does a week.

 

[yorkie]

Blooming hell, YouGov's polls are getting worse:

- 74% support the introduction of Tier 4 for parts of England vs just 17% say they are opposed

YouGov polls are incredibly tedious and tend to be done by people with loads of time on their hands. They are not in any way representative of ordinary working people.

I participated in a few in the Summer but I vowed never to do so again.

 

[Socanxdis]

I don't even have the strength to be enraged or appalled anymore.

 

[hwl]

You're very good at quoting spurious things as fact,

Like what?
Being able to do the maths isn't spurious, everyone should be doing their own estimates to aid their understanding it might change a few views

so perhaps you could answer this question:

If we put the timing of the restrictions and the new strain in the South East to one side, yesterday they said it is mainly a London and South East problem and they want to reduce the spread so people in those areas shouldn't travel. So far, so good. However, if it is a London and South East problem which they want to contain, and no new restrictions have been implemented anywhere else in England, how does that problem cause Christmas for everybody else to be reduced from 5 days to 1?

The aim of 1 day appears to be to reduce in home transmissions with are about 60% of the total transmissions and discourage people form travelling long distances as they would then have 2 long journeys in one day.

 

[43096]

Its obvious everywhere will be in T4 by the end of December. Meanwhile still no news on Brexit - which makes me thing we are heading for either no deal or a Boris climb down.

Of course, lockdown #3 is a rather convenient diversionary tactic to cover the fact we have no deal. Quite apart from wrecking the economy several times over with the virus response (and p****** the best part of half a trillion quid up the wall while doing so), they'll screw us over again by failing to agree a Brexit deal for the sake of an argument about fish (it's not like fishing is a significant part of the economy).

 

[Bertie the bus]

So the risk posed by the new strain is such an insignificant risk to people in Cornwall the county can remain in tier 1 but it is such a high risk to Cornwall that Christmas has to be compressed from 5 days to 1.

 

[43096]

So the risk posed by the new strain is such an insignificant risk to people in Cornwall the county can remain in tier 1 but it is such a high risk to Cornwall that Christmas has to be compressed from 5 days to 1.

You're using logic. That really doesn't help!