New 4-tier system for England

[hwl]

Matt Hancock is clearly living in a dreamworld then. He'll be retired from politics soon.

No, he's just seen the numbers and they scared the living daylights out of him!
The new variant has just rewritten all the assumptions than people previously had.

 

[island]

One thing that is not clear to me is whether outdoor leisure can take place in Tier 4, e.g. grassroots football. Does anyone know?

Not for adults. Only for those under 18 on 31•AUG•20 or disabled people.

I don't understand the 1 day thing, it's not logical. How is seeing people for 1 day less risky than seeing the same people for 5 days?

Two considerations:
1) Reducing from 5 days to 1 might make people decide not to bother going at all, and 0 is definitely less risky than 1 or 5.
2) There is probably a recognition that people were going to try to have different bubbles on different days, which this combats.

Out of interest, could the likes of Whitty ever realistically be held legally liable? His role is only as an adviser, after all. Then there will be the massive blame contest between what was advised versus what was actually done.

Not personally, no. His office could (but it all comes back to the government in the end).

One does have to wonder what the point of restricting seats for social distancing is if the BTP don't help enforce it in situations like last night.

The BTP, like any other police, can only enforce laws. Social distancing is not law in England, only guidance.

One other observation – the regulations published today do not contain any restrictions on travel into or out of tier 4, as originally trailed. As such, the alleged “bans” only constitute guidance. I suppose long-distance leisure travel may fall foul of the rules around being away from home without reasonable excuse, but it’s already been suggested on Twitter that you could book an apartment viewing in your chosen destination and you are then covered...

 

[317 forever]

I think Boris Johnson has taken advantage of the fact the parliament is not sitting at the moment, and won't be until the first week in January.

By the time parliament returns, if the leaks story in The Telegraph are to be believed, the Oxford vaccine will have been approved for use in the UK, and the vaccine program will be just getting going. So Boris will have something with which to deflect the **** that is most definitely going to hit the fan when MPs return.

The tier system in England comes up for renewal at the end of January, and Boris Johnson needs to be able to show MPs a route out of all this nonsense if he wants to get the regulations renewed.

Parliament may be recalled in the event of a trade deal with the EU.

As we will be right in the middle of winter at the end of January, I can't see the tier system ending unless the whole of England goes into lockdown like the new tier 4.

 

[21C101]

Q1) How to fill trains to the gunnels again for the first time in 9 months with social distancing abandoned?

Q2) If a nasty strain of Corona takes root in London, how do you encourage people to flee london en masse and spread it all over the country?

A) Hold a press conference less than a week before Christmas and announce a travel ban with 8 hours notice. Simples.

 

[cactustwirly]

Is there anything yet about travel from tier 4 areas? Is it just guidance like tier 3?

 

[yorkie]

Is there anything yet about travel from tier 4 areas? Is it just guidance like tier 3?

You are only supposed to leave home for a reason listed in the guidance.

If you are leaving home for a reason that is permissible, then you are acting lawfully, but if it is a reason that is not permissible, that is unlawful.

For people living in those areas, it's similar to the November lockdown

 

[farleigh]

No, he's just seen the numbers and they scared the living daylights out of him!
The new variant has just rewritten all the assumptions than people previously had.

Which numbers??

 

[DustyBin]

The man-made conspiracy theory was already well underway on social media following a comment from Farage earlier this evening when he said "Christmas cancelled. Thank you, China."

I know somebody who strongly believes China released the virus deliberately. He’s a well educated professional guy and can make his case very well although I don’t agree with him. One question he did ask though that I found quite interesting was why is nobody blaming China? His suggestion is that it’s because we have no response, or not one that wouldn’t make things infinitely worse. Our leaders have decided to take this on the chin. As I said, I don’t buy it but it was an interesting conversation.

They also seem to think that those travelling up from London will be bringing this new strain. It doesn't appear to have occurred to them that if it's as effective at spreading as claimed, and has been around since September, it'll be everywhere by now!

I thought the same straightaway, has nobody travelled in or out of London since September? I know I have!

I don't like lockdown and I think it is doing more harm than good now both to business and individuals. However, let's not start playing down this virus as 'just a seasonal virus', as this kind of statement encourages complacency. It isn't seasonal, it has been prevalent throughout the year; more so in colder months but only the first lockdown got the case numbers right down for Summer. It is also much worse than flu, we can see this through the number of people admitted to hospital and those becoming seriously ill.

Seasonal flu has not led to hospitals being stretched to the point where routine operations are postponed for many months and more seriously cancer treatment and referrals being delayed, like covid has done.

But a lot of this stuff isn’t quite true is it? It clearly is seasonal, and the vast majority of hospitals haven’t been stretched the extent we’ve been led to believe. Whilst I agree that the virus is more dangerous (to some) than the average flu strain, we’ve had flu seasons with comparable numbers of deaths.

I can picture him in the dock, either bursting into tiers (how appropriate!), or having some kind of tantrum.

I suppose Hancock is the one who ultimately carries the can, being Secretary of State for healthy.

Ironically I think he actually has been one of the ones who has made a genuine effort in all of this, just that he’s a man so utterly out of his depth, and no amount of enthusiasm will make up for that.

Boris would no doubt pass the buck in any legal proceedings.

Watch Hancock’s ‘emotional’ interview again, and tell me isn’t actually laughing his head off.... Seriously, he looks to be faking the tears to cover his amusement over ‘William Shakespeare’!

What about those who are suffering due to loss of livelihoods, loneliness and many other factors and/or the harmful effects on their mental health?

Let's not forget the average age of a death with Covid is over 80, while younger people are at far more risk of factors such as suicide than Covid.

We have our priorities all wrong

Come on yorkie, you should know by now they don’t matter!

What about young people who for whatever medical reason are extremely vulnerable and are scared to venture out whilst this virus is rife and thus also seeing their livelihoods affected and quite possibly their mental health too? There are many variables here on both sides.

The virus is always going to be rife, it isn’t going anywhere. Hopefully the vaccine will mitigate the worst effects of it for these people so they can get on with life, but how many people are we talking about here? We’re trashing the country for everybody to protect what are outlying cases. I don’t wish to sound cold hearted as I sympathise with anybody who is genuinely vulnerable and scared, but if we carry on the way we are there won’t be much of a life for them to return to once it’s safe to do so. I honestly don’t think some people realise how much damage is being done to our country, it’s going to be a long and painful road to recovery.

How's this for some perspective then?

So far, 66,500 Britons have died after becoming infected with coronavirus on the measure the Government uses - that's the equivalent of all the people in a town the size of Farnborough or Paignton dying. Plenty of them were not grannies - several hundred were NHS staff.

You can come out with all the pat phrases you like, along the lines of


or


but what do they actually mean? How about enlightening us to what such things would look like? And how they would rein in the current rapid spread of the virus?

Or are we just supposed to sit back and relax while thousands more people die during the year or so that it is being suggested it will take to vaccinate most of the UK population?

Even the Swedes have admitted their different approach is not working and are about to introduce restrictions looking a lot like those in other countries across Europe.

You’re quite right, 66,500 people have died after testing positive for the virus. In other words WITH Covid-19, not FROM. One could be forgiven for suspecting the virus hasn’t killed as many people as they’d have us believe....

If the internet existed in the 1940s, would people have been posting on forums about how they don’t agree with going in Anderson shelters when the air raid siren went off?

Sorry but that’s a terrible analogy! Bombs don’t distinguish between young and old, healthy and unhealthy etc. etc.

67,000 cases with covid, not necessarily because of it.

As above, an important distinction that is widely ignored.

 

[Yew]

Or are we just supposed to sit back and relax while thousands more people die during the year or so that it is being suggested it will take to vaccinate most of the UK population?

65000 in about a year, isn't that exactly the same as what happened for flu most years in the late 90's?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

Personally I don't have a problem.with the new tier 4, and it should have been an option at the start as almost a deterrent.

A deterent? What are you going to deter, the virus doesn't understand threats! All tier 4 is is non time-limited torture for something the people have no control over.

 

[island]

Is there anything yet about travel from tier 4 areas? Is it just guidance like tier 3?

There is no specific rule on travel into or out of a tier 4 area, but those resident in tier 4 areas may only leave home with a reasonable excuse.

 

[C J Snarzell]

According to Matt Hancock on sky News this morning, Areas in T4 should expect to stay there until the vaccine has been rolled out.

The first phase of the vaccination programme is not going to be completely rolled out until February/March. Does Hancock seriously think 21 million people are going to remain under house arrest for a minimum of two months? What a pathetic objectionable man he has turned into.

CJ

 

[cactustwirly]

You are only supposed to leave home for a reason listed in the guidance.

If you are leaving home for a reason that is permissible, then you are acting lawfully, but if it is a reason that is not permissible, that is unlawful.

For people living in those areas, it's similar to the November lockdown

So hypothetically I can cross into tier 2, do example if I am going food shopping or for exercise etc

 

[yorkie]

How's this for some perspective then?

So far, 66,500 Britons have died after becoming infected with coronavirus on the measure the Government uses - that's the equivalent of all the people in a town the size of Farnborough or Paignton dying. Plenty of them were not grannies
....

But do you admit the average age of a death with Covid is over 80? Yes some younger people will die with Covid, but it's a miniscule percentage; younger people are more likely to die from all sorts of other things than Covid.

Indeed the measures used to combat the virus are massively harmful to mental health; suicide is one of the biggest risks to younger adults and that risk is increasing as a result of draconian measures which people like you are supporting.

The St Pancras issue does highlight the ignorance about rail services by the media in assuming that all who were travelling were going to Leeds, not understanding that EMT would be an unlikely route for that (It just happened to be one of the small number of EMT services which go to Leeds), and that most of those on the train were far more likely travelling to the East Midlands.

The hysterical brigade lack intelligence and the ability/desire to do meaningful research.

Therefore I fully expect them to think that most people turning up for the 2002 St Pancras to Leeds (which takes 3 hours, compared to the 2005 from Kings Cross which is around 45min quicker) will be going to Leeds. This is of no surprise to me and this demonstrates how unintelligent they are and how they do not want to do the research that would be needed to form a useful opinion.

If you try to correct them, you will probably be insulted and looked down upon as someone who knows too much about a particular subject; these people are only interested in superficial sound-bites to support their position. Detailed research and knowledge is not welcome.

Seeing the hysterical brigade go nuts on Twitter shows just how bonkers this minority of people is, and how vocal they are. There is no hope for them as they will not open their eyes to see.

 

[Paul_10]

The first phase of the vaccination programme is not going to be completely rolled out until February/March. Does Hancock seriously think 21 million people are going to remain under house arrest for a minimum of two months? What a pathetic objectionable man he has turned into.

CJ

I would not always take what Matt Hancock says too literally but infection rates have to come down by quite alot I feel before any tier 4 areas has to move into tier 3.

Infact to be honest, I think all areas will move into tier 4 soon enough and a hard lockdown to be put in place. Going to be a grim few months but we knew that anyways, we all been told the winter months was going to be tough.

 

[DustyBin]

The first phase of the vaccination programme is not going to be completely rolled out until February/March. Does Hancock seriously think 21 million people are going to remain under house arrest for a minimum of two months? What a pathetic objectionable man he has turned into.

CJ

I think he said until mass vaccination has been completed so far longer than a couple of months. What on earth are they playing at?

 

[yorkie]

Personally I don't have a problem.with the new tier 4, and it should have been an option at the start as almost a deterrent.

What I do have a problem with is the mixing of people only in Christmas Day.

This should apply across the country, no exceptions.

Could you imagine as a car owner a policy whereby you were told that you can meet with close family for one day over Christmas but all the roads in the country were shut at the same time? That is the problem public transport users face on Christmas Day. It's simply disgusting.

The hysterical brigade who call for these measures tend to be (though not exclusively so) people with access to cars who look down on public transport users. The Government does not care about those of us who rely on public transport either.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

One does have to wonder what the point of restricting seats for social distancing is if the BTP don't help enforce it ..

There is no law behind this to enforce

 

[Richard Scott]

Was it the law, with the threat of fines/arrest if you decided to stay in your house rather than going to the shelter?

That would have been a choice, something we don't have. Everyone is expected to do the same rather than allowing people to take care of themselves. In the 1940s people were expected to be responsible not constantly expect others to look after them. Big difference.

 

[Paul_10]

But do you admit the average age of a death with Covid is over 80? Yes some younger people will die with Covid, but it's a miniscule percentage; younger people are more likely to die from all sorts of other things than Covid.

Indeed the measures used to combat the virus are massively harmful to mental health; suicide is one of the biggest risks to younger adults and that risk is increasing as a result of draconian measures which people like you are supporting.

So what do you honestly propose then? 67,000 deaths and that is with tight restrictions in place, goodness knows what it would of been if we did the do nothing route.

I do sympathise with people who are struggling through this on a mental health perspective but there's no easy answers to this unprecedented pandemic. Obviously Boris does not want to do this but he's got no option really and I do have elements of sympathy for him but he does not help himself when he attacks the leader of the opposition for wanting Xmas cancelled only for him to do that a few days later.

 

[yorksrob]

No, he's just seen the numbers and they scared the living daylights out of him!
The new variant has just rewritten all the assumptions than people previously had.

Given that there is no evidence that the new strain is more deadly than the older one, or that it will be more resistant to vaccination, it should still hold true that once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, the pressure on services will be released.

Closing down the country for a year until mass vaccination has been achieved is not possible - even Hancock must see that.

 

[Domh245]

You’re quite right, 66,500 people have died after testing positive for the virus. In other words WITH Covid-19, not FROM. One could be forgiven for suspecting the virus hasn’t killed as many people as they’d have us believe....

Seeing as the number of people who've died with Covid as the underlying cause (ie from, not with) is 59,791 out of 68,924 recorded by the ONS, I think the point generally stands. Only cancer has singularly killed more people in the same period

 

[Ianno87]

That would have been a choice, something we don't have. Everyone is expected to do the same rather than allowing people to take care of themselves. In the 1940s people were expected to be responsible not constantly expect others to look after them. Big difference.

But in WW2, there was lots of stuff like black market trading to get around ration restrictions. So, very much like today, a minority of people who paid no notice to 'the rules' and did not take their own responsibility.

 

[yorkie]

So what do you honestly propose then? 67,000 deaths and that is with tight restrictions in place, goodness knows what it would of been if we did the do nothing route.

What is the "do nothing" route and why is that the only alternative?

The restrictions go too far, including stopping people do things which are very low risk of transmission. The so-called cure is more dangerous than the disease for the majority of the population; the average age of a death with Covid is over 80 but these restrictions threaten the very fabric of our society, our trust in democracy, and much much more. The livelihoods and mental threat of a far greater number of people is under huge threat.

I do sympathise with people who are struggling through this on a mental health perspective but there's no easy answers to this unprecedented pandemic.

In other words you say you sympathise but you're still justifying the actions that are incredibly detrimental to mental health so you are not in any way supportive; the reality is that you are complicit in the harm that is being inflicted by lockdowns.

 

[island]

So hypothetically I can cross into tier 2, do example if I am going food shopping or for exercise etc

Nothing in the regulations currently in effect would prohibit this.

 

[Yew]

Going to be a grim few months but we knew that anyways, we all been told the winter months was going to be tough.

I thought we were going to have 'significant normality by November?'

 

[Darandio]

No, he's just seen the numbers and they scared the living daylights out of him!
The new variant has just rewritten all the assumptions than people previously had.

Which numbers??

Indeed, which numbers?

 

[C J Snarzell]

I think he said until mass vaccination has been completed so far longer than a couple of months. What on earth are they playing at?

Hancock, Johnson and other key cabinet figures are completely and utterly deluded if they believe millions of people are going to comply with Tier 4 restrictions for months without a confirmed end date.

As I said in a previous post the knock on effects this will have on the health & wellbeing of the general public do not bare thinking about.

This Country is already buckling under a rising mental health and alcohol misuse epidemic - all Hancock has done this morning is accelerate this problem that bit more.

CJ

 

[peters]

No, he's just seen the numbers and they scared the living daylights out of him!
The new variant has just rewritten all the assumptions than people previously had.

What do you mean he's just seen them? Kent as had a serious problem for a few weeks but the government has been slow to react to that, just like they haven't reacted to the stats showing some boroughs of Greater Manchester have rates low enough to qualify for tier 1 status. Yet they've insisted on keeping all of Greater Manchester in tier 3. Hancock's response to a question from Graham Brady in parliament on that was that High Peak is still showing very high rates and it borders Greater Manchester! I can understand the local hospitals for some parts of High Peak are in Greater Manchester but I hope no-one from High Peak is being sent to a hospital in Wigan! Hancock is originally from the North West so you'd think he'd understand North West geography.

 

[Watershed]

You are only supposed to leave home for a reason listed in the guidance.

If you are leaving home for a reason that is permissible, then you are acting lawfully, but if it is a reason that is not permissible, that is unlawful.

For people living in those areas, it's similar to the November lockdown

Worth pointing out that it is the same system as before in that you need a reasonable excuse to leave home. The legislation (from which the guidance derives) lists many things which will automatically be considered a reasonable excuse, but that doesn't mean that other things cannot be reasonable.

In practice it will be just as widely observed and enforced as the November lockdown.

 

[C J Snarzell]

What do you mean he's just seen them? Kent as had a serious problem for a few weeks but the government has been slow to react to that, just like they haven't reacted to the stats showing some boroughs of Greater Manchester have rates low enough to qualify for tier 1 status. Yet they've insisted on keeping all of Greater Manchester in tier 3. Hancock's response to a question from Graham Brady in parliament on that was that High Peak is still showing very high rates and it borders Greater Manchester! I can understand the local hospitals for some parts of High Peak are in Greater Manchester but I hope no-one from High Peak is being sent to a hospital in Wigan! Hancock is originally from the North West so you'd think he'd understand North West geography.

I've said before that I suspect some of the Tier level decision making is based on contingency planning for NHS hospitals.

People living in places like Glossop, Buxton, New Mills (Derbyshire High Peak) will end up being admitted to the likes of Stepping Hill or Tameside Hospitals which are Greater Manchester hospitals.

Ribble Valley in Lancashire has very low Covid rates too - again they are Tier 3, but the nearest hospitals are Blackburn and Preston that had seen high rates of infection.

CJ

 

[peters]

Worth pointing out that it is the same system as before in that you need a reasonable excuse to leave home. The legislation (from which the guidance derives) lists many things which will automatically be considered a reasonable excuse, but that doesn't mean that other things cannot be reasonable.

In practice it will be just as unenforceable as the November lockdown.

I'm sure the November lockdown gave a list of the only reasons you are allowed to leave your home. However, the rules were more relaxed due to some senior lawyers threatening legal action back in April regarding it being permitted to go outside to exercise but not to relax or sunbathe, while maintaining social distancing. The lawyers argued that the government not allowing outdoor relaxing or sunbathing, while maintaining social distancing was not something that could spread the virus more than other permitted activities, so the government were being unlawful in not allowing it. Consequently in April we had Police telling people sat on park benches to go home but in November they couldn't do that.