National Grid warns of possible blackouts

[yorksrob]

I’ve seen some reports that energy use in a Germany is significantly down, because of Government led public campaigns. We haven’t had that here.




Safe to say there Governments across Europe have been doing thus for over a year now.

So long as we're in the party, I'm happy.

 

[dgl]

I bet the cost of living crisis has also affected energy use quite a bit, more people putting on extra layers than turning up the heating, or some people using more solid fuels.

 

[DelayRepay]

I bet the cost of living crisis has also affected energy use quite a bit, more people putting on extra layers than turning up the heating, or some people using more solid fuels.

I've been wearing extra layers, and my own energy use is less than it was last winter (although it's not easy to compare properly, because last winter I was working at home a lot more). Many of my colleagues seem to be doing the same - it's been common to see people wearing fleeces on Zoom calls etc. And we are paid well enough that we probably don't actually need to worry too much about turning the heating on.

I just wondered if there was any figures to show whether energy use had dropped generally across the UK as a result of the higher prices.

 

[cjmillsnun]

So, are these blackouts happening then or not?

I'd hate for all that media fearmongering at the end of last year to go to waste...

No they’re not and they never were. I work in the sector. We plan and carry out exercises every year to test the theory. We’ve never had to do it in reality. This year we went through it in more detail. We do this every so often. The media picked it up and ran with it.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I’ve seen some reports that energy use in a Germany is significantly down, because of Government led public campaigns. We haven’t had that here.

There is an BEIS energy saving TV campaign running seem it several times turn your boiler temp down etc. Didn't start till late in December but at least we can be grateful Shapps isn't fronting it up.

 

[Russel]

No they’re not and they never were. I work in the sector. We plan and carry out exercises every year to test the theory. We’ve never had to do it in reality. This year we went through it in more detail. We do this every so often. The media picked it up and ran with it.

As I suspected.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

No they’re not and they never were. I work in the sector. We plan and carry out exercises every year to test the theory. We’ve never had to do it in reality. This year we went through it in more detail. We do this every so often. The media picked it up and ran with it.

As I suspected.

Indeed, but isn't it the case that the media usually run with a story these days when they've been spoon fed a "ready made" press release?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

No they’re not and they never were. I work in the sector. We plan and carry out exercises every year to test the theory. We’ve never had to do it in reality. This year we went through it in more detail. We do this every so often. The media picked it up and ran with it.

Media hype stuff up for sure but we are down a couple of nukes over last 12mths although i guess keeping units at Drax and West Burton available has neutralised the impact of that but will they be there next winter. Also if we are experiencing a blocking NW Europe high pressure system then wind will fall away and NG ESO are basically saying the system price will have to rise to attract European/Norway exports.

So far this winter looks highest demand was on 15/12 5PM c46GW and there was 7GW that half hour and 4GW on the i/c so if there was no wind and we couldn't attract imports we only have 36GW of dispatchable generation to support 46GW so not an impossible scenario that the ESO had to assess?

Anyhow better to warm up Joe Public would help reduce demand.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Well if they are, they've been cunningly disguised..

However, the "media fearmongering " was anything but. The projections were based on the usage that could reasonably be expected during cold periods and overall usage in a UK winter...so nothing remotely alarmist or "fearmongering "...only prudent warnings of the potential for outages to occur.

Enter that capricious and fickle lady, Mother Nature, who has decided this winter will, so far, be comparatively mild across the UK and mainland Europe.

They were fearmongering.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Jan 2023 ==

Citation needed.

Every article I read said that they would only be likely in the event of a particularly cold winter.

The problem is social media. It almost shouldn’t have been said by the media at all because it is known what the social media effect is. Remember the last time the petrol stations ran dry. The media reported on an issue with 2 stations in London that had normal demand continued would’ve led to no disruption. Social media got hold of it and everyone went and filled up at the same time. Of course the system is not designed to cope with that demand.

 

[najaB]

It almost shouldn’t have been said by the media at all because it is known what the social media effect is.

So nobody should ever be informed to prepare for a likely outcome because of the "social media effect"?

 

[DelayRepay]

The problem is social media. It almost shouldn’t have been said by the media at all because it is known what the social media effect is. Remember the last time the petrol stations ran dry. The media reported on an issue with 2 stations in London that had normal demand continued would’ve led to no disruption. Social media got hold of it and everyone went and filled up at the same time. Of course the system is not designed to cope with that demand.

What was the bad thing that happened as a result of the media reporting there was a possibility of power outages if we had a particularly cold winter? I remember the Great Toilet Roll Crisis of 2020, but I don't know anyone who was trying to stockpile electricity this winter (unless you count making sure they had spare batteries for the torch/radio as panicking).

 

[AM9]

The problem is social media. It almost shouldn’t have been said by the media at all because it is known what the social media effect is. Remember the last time the petrol stations ran dry. The media reported on an issue with 2 stations in London that had normal demand continued would’ve led to no disruption. Social media got hold of it and everyone went and filled up at the same time. Of course the system is not designed to cope with that demand.

Social media is not a sensible means of conveying important information to the general public. Those who think it is and make their decisions based purely on what is effectively heresay deserve the consequences of their laziness to seek confirmation from reliable sources. Having lived through the power cuts of the '70s (and they were serious power cuts based on a shortage of coal arising from a miners strike) I know that it isn't pleasant, but everybody was informed by what is now called 'main stream media' so dealt with it as best they could. There was no sub-text of a conspiracy to cause panic amongst those whose only access to information was from the equivalent of graffiti on public toilet walls in terms of credibility.

 

[Russel]

So nobody should ever be informed to prepare for a likely outcome because of the "social media effect"?

But its not a likely outcome, it was a worst case scenario that the media latched onto.

Remember back to the Covid panic buying, petrol panic buying, 5000 Covid deaths a day, once the media get hold of something, it's blown out of all proportions, I'm not sure why you're trying to defend it.

 

[najaB]

But its not a likely outcome, it was a worst case scenario that the media latched onto.

It was as likely as a cold winter. Which was looking about 50/50 in October/November.

 

[Annetts key]

It was as likely as a cold winter. Which was looking about 50/50 in October/November.

Firstly, was a cold winter more or less likely? And based on what? Our weather is highly variable at the best of times.

Secondly, as well as a cold period, there also had to be little or no wind, no electricity supplies from other countries via the feeders, and a lack of gas, plus the big industrial users cutting electricity and gas use not being enough to reduce the load enough. In the event, we did not come anywhere close.

Just like the “warnings” from the lead up to the winter of 2021/2022, the media (generally) took a worse case study/scenario out of context and ran with it.

Of course, what should have happened, is that government in the summer should have encouraged property owners to prepare by upgrading insulation, heating systems etc.

 

[najaB]

Firstly, was a cold winter more or less likely?

I rather think that "Which was looking about 50/50..." answers that particular question.

Secondly, as well as a cold period, there also had to be little or no wind, no electricity supplies from other countries via the feeders, and a lack of gas, plus the big industrial users cutting electricity and gas use not being enough to reduce the load enough. In the event, we did not come anywhere close.

Just like the “warnings” from the lead up to the winter of 2021/2022, the media (generally) took a worse case study/scenario out of context and ran with it.

Every report I saw said as much.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I don't think it fair to just blame 'social' media for the hysterics. 'Mainstream' media was just as bad. Anything to generate clicks/sales/retweets regardless of consequences. There are plenty of people who do rely solely on social media as their source of information though, plus the bloke down the pub. Or as @AM9 most excellently phrases it "those whose only access to information was from the equivalent of graffiti on public toilet walls".

Without reading back, wasn't there a 'reasonable worst case scenario' of rolling, scheduled power cuts? That is not random blackouts but the scheduled cutting off of power for set periods based on the rota which someone here (and nowhere else) kindly pointed us in the direction of ie the letter in a box on your bill. Personally, I would like to be told about reasonable worst case scenarios, in the same way I would like to be told the chances of a medical procedure being unsuccessful and/or the possible side effects. I may not be able to do anything about it happening but I can at least make some reasonable preparations to mitigate some of the impacts.

What I find most unacceptable is the lack of a sensible response from the government / those in charge in properly explaining the situation following the hysteria in the media. Much as I found the response to the fuel panics, food panics and toilet roll hysteria equally hopeless. Did anyone stop trying to panic buy toilet roll or tinned beans as a result of the government reassurances or did it just ensure even more people went out to panic buy?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Firstly, was a cold winter more or less likely? And based on what? Our weather is highly variable at the best of times.

Secondly, as well as a cold period, there also had to be little or no wind, no electricity supplies from other countries via the feeders, and a lack of gas, plus the big industrial users cutting electricity and gas use not being enough to reduce the load enough. In the event, we did not come anywhere close.

Just like the “warnings” from the lead up to the winter of 2021/2022, the media (generally) took a worse case study/scenario out of context and ran with it.

Of course, what should have happened, is that government in the summer should have encouraged property owners to prepare by upgrading insulation, heating systems etc.

winters not over yet!

 

[WAB]

I don't think it was/is completely out of the question for there to be a Europe-wide period of cold, dark and still weather, where we would not be getting the supply from the interconnectors, solar, and wind, with demand through the roof because of the temperatures. And in that scenario, I would expect the load shedding plan to have been put into place.

 

[Bald Rick]

Secondly, as well as a cold period, there also had to be little or no wind, no electricity supplies from other countries via the feeders, and a lack of gas, plus the big industrial users cutting electricity and gas use not being enough to reduce the load enough. In the event, we did not come anywhere close.

If we had a cold period combined with any two of low wind, limited power through the electricity interconnectors (which would be caused by cold weather on the near continent) and not enough gas (caused by a long cold period), then we would have been in trouble. Not necessarily big trouble, but trouble.

Certainly the Railway has been scenario planning this winter on there being planned and potential unplanned interruptions to power supplies due to rolling blackouts, and I’m not aware of that happening in the last 30 years.

Firstly, was a cold winter more or less likely? And based on what?

The Met office long range seasonal forecasts. The winter forecast (published end Oct for Dec / Jan / Feb suggested that the chance of a colder winter than normal (for the U.K.) was 1.3 times the average, and that there would likely be a cold snap in mid December. Credit where it’s due on the latter.

 

[Enthusiast]

...and that there would likely be a cold snap in mid December. Credit where it’s due on the latter.

Not really much of a gamble. I live in the South East and have visitors up from the West Country for a few days in early to mid December. I should think four years out of five there is a cold snap around that time and very often their journey either up or down is influenced by snow and/or ice.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not really much of a gamble. I live in the South East and have visitors up from the West Country for a few days in early to mid December. I should think four years out of five there is a cold snap around that time and very often their journey either up or down is influenced by snow and/or ice.

I‘m sorry that’s not right. Whilst I don’t have hard evidence, I reckon there has been widespread snow in any part of December perhaps once every five years in the last 30.

 

[Annetts key]

On the weather, the overall average is that very cold winters have been increasingly less common.

Personally, I would like to be told about reasonable worst case scenarios, in the same way I would like to be told the chances of a medical procedure being unsuccessful and/or the possible side effects. I may not be able to do anything about it happening but I can at least make some reasonable preparations to mitigate some of the impacts.

With all due respect, how is this significantly different to a local distribution network failure. I experienced this during the reasonable warm weather in the autumn of last year (2022). Okay, the electricity was only off for about three hours (a blown fuse is what the company publicly put on their website). And although I was not completely ready for it, it only took a couple of minutes to grab a rechargeable light. Laptop battery was already fully charged. And I could still use my mobile to access the internet. So it was not too bad.

But, there are places (e.g, in the countryside) where it’s not unknown for overhead pole routes to suffer problems (the 33kV ones make a bit of a mess of the rail head and fry the track circuit equipment, don’t ask how I know). Especially in winter…

winters not over yet!

Careful, we sometimes get hail stones or snow showers in May or even in our so called summer!

Back to railways, a lot of railway infrastructure has backup generators. Most modern (since the late 1960s depending on where you are) signalling has ‘standby’ diesel generator sets to supply the signalling systems.

Some larger stations have ‘standby’ diesel generator sets to supply ‘essential’ services such as station lighting.

Critical junctions very occasionally may even have a ‘standby’ diesel generator set for the electric point heating (or maybe the installation I saw was only experimental). Or a socket ready for a mobile generator to connect to.

Obviously electric only trains are dead during a power failure, but other types can continue to operate if the signalling system is operational.

There are various civilian infrastructure or properties that also have backup generators for either essential services only, or for all their requirements. Some internet data centres do for example.

I’ve even seen office blocks with backup generators (although they may not work in practice if they don’t get maintained).

 

[Baxenden Bank]

With all due respect, how is this significantly different to a local distribution network failure. I experienced this during the reasonable warm weather in the autumn of last year (2022). Okay, the electricity was only off for about three hours (a blown fuse is what the company publicly put on their website). And although I was not completely ready for it, it only took a couple of minutes to grab a rechargeable light. Laptop battery was already fully charged. And I could still use my mobile to access the internet. So it was not too bad.

But, there are places (e.g, in the countryside) where it’s not unknown for overhead pole routes to suffer problems (the 33kV ones make a bit of a mess of the rail head and fry the track circuit equipment, don’t ask how I know). Especially in winter…

There isn't much difference, save that your local failure was without warning whilst the load-shedding was to be (may still be) on a planned rota basis. In the case of an unexpected power cut you are either prepared at that point in time or you aren't. In the case of a rota you can prepare ahead eg by boiling the kettle and filling a flask.

The question is (as a householder) how much preparation is reasonable? The answer to that is dependent upon your circumstances and your appetite for risk/disruption. As a city dweller I cannot remember the last time I suffered a power cut of any length, the odd blip here and there and perhaps a couple of occasions of up to an hour in 30 years. So my preparation to date was minimal.

Preparation for a 'reasonable worst case scenario' is (to my mind at least) necessarily different from that where power is always intermittent eg countries with inadequate generating or distribution capacity. As a result of the media coverage I did buy two powerbanks (to recharge phones etc.) and a modest number of rechargeable lights. As in 'even my backup has backup' to quote the army recruitment advert. The items purchased will come in useful anyway. But, at this point, I think it excessive to go out and buy a camping stove, a supply of gas canisters and/or a portable diesel generator 'just in case'. But if people have those already for camping or their work, all the better. Similarly I won't be getting up every morning, checking the power is on and instantly filling a flask 'just in case'.

 

[Yew]

Social media is not a sensible means of conveying important information to the general public. Those who think it is and make their decisions based purely on what is effectively heresay deserve the consequences of their laziness to seek confirmation from reliable sources. Having lived through the power cuts of the '70s (and they were serious power cuts based on a shortage of coal arising from a miners strike) I know that it isn't pleasant, but everybody was informed by what is now called 'main stream media' so dealt with it as best they could. There was no sub-text of a conspiracy to cause panic amongst those whose only access to information was from the equivalent of graffiti on public toilet walls in terms of credibility.

Let's not pretend that this is something unique to social media, plenty of tabloids keep the lights on by spewing out sensationalised doom-mongering scenarios to generate clicks; often these are the very articles that are then shared on social media.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jan 2023 ==

Without reading back, wasn't there a 'reasonable worst case scenario' of rolling, scheduled power cuts? That is not random blackouts but the scheduled cutting off of power for set periods based on the rota which someone here (and nowhere else) kindly pointed us in the direction of ie the letter in a box on your bill. Personally, I would like to be told about reasonable worst case scenarios, in the same way I would like to be told the chances of a medical procedure being unsuccessful and/or the possible side effects. I may not be able to do anything about it happening but I can at least make some reasonable preparations to mitigate some of the impacts.

The issue is that this becomes "Power companies warn of rolling blackouts' or "Britons told to prepare for blackouts" and the crucial information of the estimated likelihood is removed. It's not technically a lie, but it's hardly a contextual and fair summary of the facts.

 

[najaB]

The issue is that this becomes "Power companies warn of rolling blackouts' or "Britons told to prepare for blackouts" and the crucial information of the estimated likelihood is removed. It's not technically a lie, but it's hardly a contextual and fair summary of the facts

Surely that means then that the real problem is people getting their news from skim-reading the headlines.

 

[Yew]

Surely that means then that the real problem is people getting their news from skim-reading the headlines.

If that's what people are doing, that is what they are doing. Some of the headlines we see are downright misleading as seen in the local news thread.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately, the primary reason there was any significant threat of blackouts was simply that the absence of meaningful energy policy since privatisation has allowed the energy system to be run into the ground for the benefit of various private operators and financiers.

Ultimately the grid operators were bailed out by a very mild winter - which means obviously they will cut the margins even further. Eventually they will be caught out.

 

[najaB]

Some of the headlines we see are downright misleading as seen in the local news thread.

And ever has it been thus. The difference (if any) is that people used to actually read the details and had the ability to fully comprehend what was written.

 

[AM9]

And ever has it been thus. The difference (if any) is that people used to actually read the details and had the ability to fully comprehend what was written.

Now the failings of skim reading are exacerbated by cross-checking with inaccurate online posts that were invariably posted by other skim readers obsessed with being the first to post (unchecked and rubbish) information. A 'virtuous' circle of self-deception. Such is the plight of the ignorant poster' readers.