My very own predictions on future of some Class units:

[Gonzalez]

Considering the turnarounds and trains being replaced throughout the next few months, here are my own predictions on what I think might happen.

A number of Class 221s to be transferred to GC, replacing 180s?
180s to return to GWR (in the western region) to help with the shortfall from the withdrawal of HSTs?
Class 222 to move to Scotrail on a temporary basis (If there is urgency on ridding the HSTs asap?
Other AWC 221s being disposed of might end up in Cross Country? (pending on compatibility testing)

 

[bramling]

Considering the turnarounds and trains being replaced throughout the next few months, here are my own predictions on what I think might happen.

A number of Class 221s to be transferred to GC, replacing 180s?
180s to return to GWR (in the western region) to help with the shortfall from the withdrawal of HSTs?
Class 222 to move to Scotrail on a temporary basis (If there is urgency on ridding the HSTs asap?
Other AWC 221s being disposed of might end up in Cross Country? (pending on compatibility testing)

I have to say I can’t see anyone taking on the 180s as they have become so problematic. Why would GWR want to even contemplate 180s when there will be 158s spare from TfW? The 158s are essentially the same as their own 158s so avoids another traction type, even before we consider the reputation of the 180s.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some kind of deal eventually gets done and the 222s end up on ScotRail though.

 

[Gonzalez]

I have to say I can’t see anyone taking on the 180s as they have become so problematic. Why would GWR want to even contemplate 180s when there will be 158s spare from TfW? The 158s are essentially the same as their own 158s so avoids another traction type, even before we consider the reputation of the 180s.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some kind of deal eventually gets done and the 222s end up on ScotRail though.

They have history of unreliability mainly back in the 2000s when they were mainly based on fast/express routes alongside the HSTs, but nothing too comparable to when they were based on more rural routes during their second stint in GWR back in the mid 2010s, so I assumed that the Western region, considering it has a lot more rural lines, could work better for the 180s.

Being just only 20 years old, I don't think any would go for scrap. If only more closed lines are being reopenned meaning more space for trains.

 

[sprinterguy]

They have history of unreliability mainly back in the 2000s when they were mainly based on fast/express routes alongside the HSTs, but nothing too comparable to when they were based on more rural routes during their second stint in GWR back in the mid 2010s, so I assumed that the Western region, considering it has a lot more rural lines, could work better for the 180s.

Being just only 20 years old, I don't think any would go for scrap. If only more closed lines are being reopenned meaning more space for trains.

They have a history of unreliability recently and right now: The East Mids units were used sparingly, and one was reduced down to a four car set, and the impression I get from daily reports of the Grand Central sets is that they're kept going only through the judicious use of sticky tape and string.

I'm astonished that Grand Central have persevered with them for as long as they have, personally, and there are plenty of small, non-standard and unreliable classes that have gone for scrap after less than twenty years during the history of diesel and electric operation in the UK.

Other AWC 221s being disposed of might end up in Cross Country? (pending on compatibility testing)

Seven ex-Avanti sets have indeed been confirmed as transferring to Crosscountry.

I agree that the 222s would seem like a good fit for Scotrail, and for the reason I stated above I am surprised that there hasn't been a stated intention from Grand Central to replace all their 180s with ex-Avanti 221s.

 

[liamf656]

They have history of unreliability mainly back in the 2000s when they were mainly based on fast/express routes alongside the HSTs, but nothing too comparable to when they were based on more rural routes during their second stint in GWR back in the mid 2010s

Their reliability has been awful throughout their careers, especially with EMR, Grand Central and Hull Trains. With the amount of corrosion they're suffering I don't see them lasting much longer

 

[TheWalrus]

Their reliability has been awful throughout their careers, especially with EMR, Grand Central and Hull Trains. With the amount of corrosion they're suffering I don't see them lasting much longer

Sadly I think you may be right GC will be the ladt operator in their career and can see the 175s going that way at this point too. Especially as the requirement for 125mph DMUs has diminished rapidly and will continue to with more electrification and bi modes.

 

[liamf656]

Sadly I think you may be right GC will be the ladt operator in their career and can see the 175s going that way at this point too. Especially as the requirement for 125mph DMUs has diminished rapidly and will continue to with more electrification and bi modes.

And with the 222s becoming available soon it'll be obvious which fleet will be favoured too

 

[TheWalrus]

And with the 222s becoming available soon it'll be obvious which fleet will be favoured too

Sadly the 180s will be first to go which is a shame as they’re my favourite!

 

[james_the_xv]

I think some of the LNR Class 319s will transfer to royal mail services. Mail by rail seems to be on the up at the moment and I'm sure the extra capacity wouldn't go a miss.

 

[Anonymous10]

Considering the turnarounds and trains being replaced throughout the next few months, here are my own predictions on what I think might happen.

A number of Class 221s to be transferred to GC, replacing 180s?
180s to return to GWR (in the western region) to help with the shortfall from the withdrawal of HSTs?
Class 222 to move to Scotrail on a temporary basis (If there is urgency on ridding the HSTs asap?
Other AWC 221s being disposed of might end up in Cross Country? (pending on compatibility testing)

If it's unlikely gwr would take on the 175s which are slightly more reliable and until this year provided a reliable service in Wales, why would they find the 180s? They're less reliable and are longer than is needed for many routes.

 

[Gonzalez]

Adding to my list of predictions is the possibility of a search for a 4 carriage DEMU or DMU to replace the 165 Turbos on the North Downs Reading-Gatwick service, apart from the 769s which they already trailed them but unfortunately pulled the plug on them.

My only thought would be to potentially lease some 172s from WMR.

 

[JonathanH]

I think some of the LNR Class 319s will transfer to royal mail services. Mail by rail seems to be on the up at the moment and I'm sure the extra capacity wouldn't go a miss.

It is fairly clear that they are going for scrap.

Adding to my list of predictions is the possibility of a search for a 4 carriage DEMU or DMU to replace the 165 Turbos on the North Downs Reading-Gatwick service, apart from the 769s which they already trailed them but unfortunately pulled the plug on them.

GWR have a project to replace the 165s by the end of the decade. Until then, the North Downs remains as it is. The platforms which were only suitable for a 69m Turbo were extended to fit an 80m 769, but not anything longer.

In the meantime, the most likely direction to travel would be some surplus 15x units in due course bolstering the west fleet and allowing Reading to get back to a position where it has all 16 3-car 165s.

My only thought would be to potentially lease some 172s from WMR.

WMR are unlikely to have any spare.

 

[birchesgreen]

I think some of the LNR Class 319s will transfer to royal mail services. Mail by rail seems to be on the up at the moment and I'm sure the extra capacity wouldn't go a miss.

Are the 768s actually in service or still slowly rusting away at Crewe?

 

[MaidaVale]

The West Midlands Combined Authority put together an "idealized" plan for capacity increases throughout their region which references 222s being cascaded to CrossCountry from EMR (Page 53). In their eyes, this is likely to happen before 2026.

However, that's most likely speculation on their behalf too as I doubt they've been let in on any concrete plans. Worth a read though.

https://wmre.org.uk/media/aryjxnga/wmre-investment-strategy-and-summary-final.pdf

Additionally, I think it's very unlikely that First will ever take the 180s back on the western region after the endless troubles they've had with them in previous years.

 

[Wolfie]

Their reliability has been awful throughout their careers, especially with EMR, Grand Central and Hull Trains. With the amount of corrosion they're suffering I don't see them lasting much longer

I can see them stripped of useful parts (such as the powerplants shared with the 22xs) then scrapped without a second thought. No TOC, other than one compelled by DfT, will touch them with a barge-pole. Nor indeed would any overseas buyers want consistently unreliable junk.