It'll be interesting to see what the pricing system is like, but I'd guess that the 0640 HS2 will be cheaper than the current 0640 Virgin (plus inflation), but the 0740 HS2 will be more expensive.
There are two ways that the existing services can be cheaper than HS2 trains:
- HS2 puts their fares up compared with the current fares whilst ICWC keeps theirs the same
OR
- HS2 keeps their fares the same compared with the current fares whilst ICWC lowers theirs
Given the extra capacity that will be provided by HS2 it is assumed that the latter would be what happens, as that is what the model used for justifying HS2 has assumed.
If the former happens (most people would pay up to an extra £20 if it meant that they could stay in bed for an extra hour) then depending on how much more is charged and that extra cost doesn't result in a drop in total income (i.e. very few people switching to the slower services) then all that does is make the CBR of HS2 better.
You also have to bear in mind that an 07:40 departure for a 09:00 start of a working day is fairly reasonable and so people may start to commute to London from Manchester, as although their train fares would be more their housing costs would be less.
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Hear this optimistic talk all over the shop with this project which apparently is unlike any other railway project ever. The other phrase that is often uttered, just not in relation to this project, is about it being pointless to cart fresh air around?
Companies and government will want to expend the fewest resources for the maximum return. If you really have a glut of capacity then you can expect services to be culled, not run so you have a carriage to yourself.
As for prices, it is just as likely that they will be increased to make up for shortfalls since people paying the already silly prices are either those who don't care because it's going on expenses or those who have no choice.
There is a fine line, reduce the number of services and less people will use them (i.e. the reverse of what XC found out when they brought in their Voyagers).
However, if passenger growth continues at 4% per year we'd be looking at double the number of passengers when HS2 opens as compared with now. Given that there has been little in the way of improvements over the whole network since the failure of the ICWC franchise yet passenger growth is still going up at that rate, I wouldn't be surprised if it kept going at that rate (or at least an average of that rate) as we start to see more improvements.
If we are looking at carrying at double the passengers at opening it wouldn't be surprising to see a few years after opening that passenger numbers have jumped due to the extra capacity and faster journey times.
I don't think fares will fall by much, even if they fall by (say) 5% and then stagnate for a few years before starting to increase again; in real terms that could be quite a difference.
Agree that if 390's find a home off the WCML it's unlikely to be the HML.