Moving house - comparing commuting options using maths

[GodAtum]

We are planning to move house and my partner thinks that living in Zone 2/3 is quicker as that's nearer London than where we currently live in Zone 5. To most people, that an obvious statement and sounds correct. But I had a feeling it wasn't so did some maths:

West Dulwich - Victoria: 4 tph, takes 13 mins (5.02 miles, 2.59 mins/mile). £1,124 annual.
East Croydon - Victoria: 8 fast tph, takes 15 mins (10.28 miles, 1.46 mins/mile) £1,684 annual.
Bromley South - Victoria: 4 fast tph, takes 18 mins (10.71 miles, 1.68 mins/mile). £1,880 annual.

East Croydon - London Bridge: 14 fast tph, takes 14 mins (10.16 miles, 1.38 mins/mile). £1,872 annual.
North Dulwich - London Bridge: 4 tph, takes 15 minutes (4.53 miles, 3.31 mins/mile). £792 annual.

Wimbledon - London Waterloo: 14 tph, takes 18 mins (7.2 miles, 2.5 mins/mile). £1,048 annual.
Wimbledon - Victoria (District line): 10 tph, takes 38 mins (12.71 miles, 2.99 mins/mile). £1,696 annual.

Oddly, it takes 2x longer per mile to travel from West Dulwich to Victoria, compared to the other options which are twice as far, if I did my maths right! This doesn't take into account the reliability of the line. We've currently use East Croydon which has been good on average, but no idea about the South Eastern line? Also need to account for space and passenger numbers. Ignoring lockdown, a station with more tph will fare better during disruption than a station with less.

Looking at the price of an annual season ticket, we would save £560 comparing Croydon to West Dulwich.

Her opinion is that even if we pay more for a property in Zone 2, the quicker commute time is more beneficial for a healthy work/life balance. My opinion is that we should stay in Croydon, as living in Zone 2 won't make much difference to commute times, even if the tickets are slightly cheaper.

 

[Ianno87]

a station with more tph will fare better during disruption than a station with less.

In London a station with alternatives tends to fare better during disruption. Either choice of London terminals from that station, or from a nearby alternative station.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is daily commuting still going to be necessary in the "new world"? If not, you might want to consider going further out for a better house for less money.

I'd probably say now is not the time to make decisions on a relocation; I'd leave it about a year to see how things pan out.

 

[Peter Sarf]

It is not a big enough saving to make moving worth it. Especially if you are selling a property (stamp duty, fees etc).

Wonder which has better air quality.

As above, you would be better of having a choice of routes for reliability. East Croydon gets you to many more destinations/routes Victoria, London Bridge (onwards). Then West Croydon gets you to Victoria, London Bridge (onwards) and also the East London Line.

Nearer is not necessarily quicker as you are going to be on stopping services from the Dulwich area.

 

[GodAtum]

In London a station with alternatives tends to fare better during disruption. Either choice of London terminals from that station, or from a nearby alternative station.

Yeah that did occur to me. Regarding the choice of London stations:

East Croydon: Victoria, London Bridge, Blackfriars, St Pancras
West/North Dulwich: Victoria/London Bridge
Wimbledon: London Waterloo, Victoria

Croydon has direct access to more stations that are important to us.

 

[OliverH68]

You would definitely be better to stay in Croydon. I commute from Purley but used to live in Sanderstead 2 years ago. Purley is so much more flexible for commuting options with more choice of trains and buses. As other posters have said, living nearer doesn't essentially mean the commute will be quicker or cheaper, especially if moving from Zone 5 to Zone 2, as the commute times end to end are identical, really.

Just my 2 cents

 

[SteelWeelApeal]

Yeah that did occur to me. Regarding the choice of London stations:

East Croydon: Victoria, London Bridge, Blackfriars, St Pancras
West/North Dulwich: Victoria/London Bridge
Wimbledon: London Waterloo, Victoria

Croydon has direct access to more stations that are important to us.

As London Bridge, Blackfriars and St Pancras are on the same line, for disruption purposes they might as well be considered one

 

[thedbdiboy]

London area fares are priced zonally for National Rail season tickets, even though they are still issued point-to-point. So the fares don't really reflect the specifics of how many trains per hour or actual rail distance. The way that the zones are priced, there is a relatively low premium for adding extra zonesonce the cenral zone is paid for.

 

[Horizon22]

We are planning to move house and my partner thinks that living in Zone 2/3 is quicker as that's nearer London than where we currently live in Zone 5. To most people, that an obvious statement and sounds correct. But I had a feeling it wasn't so did some maths:

West Dulwich - Victoria: 4 tph, takes 13 mins (5.02 miles, 2.59 mins/mile). £1,124 annual.
East Croydon - Victoria: 8 fast tph, takes 15 mins (10.28 miles, 1.46 mins/mile) £1,684 annual.
Bromley South - Victoria: 4 fast tph, takes 18 mins (10.71 miles, 1.68 mins/mile). £1,880 annual.

East Croydon - London Bridge: 14 fast tph, takes 14 mins (10.16 miles, 1.38 mins/mile). £1,872 annual.
North Dulwich - London Bridge: 4 tph, takes 15 minutes (4.53 miles, 3.31 mins/mile). £792 annual.

Wimbledon - London Waterloo: 14 tph, takes 18 mins (7.2 miles, 2.5 mins/mile). £1,048 annual.
Wimbledon - Victoria (District line): 10 tph, takes 38 mins (12.71 miles, 2.99 mins/mile). £1,696 annual.

Oddly, it takes 2x longer per mile to travel from West Dulwich to Victoria, compared to the other options which are twice as far, if I did my maths right! This doesn't take into account the reliability of the line. We've currently use East Croydon which has been good on average, but no idea about the South Eastern line? Also need to account for space and passenger numbers. Ignoring lockdown, a station with more tph will fare better during disruption than a station with less.

Looking at the price of an annual season ticket, we would save £560 comparing Croydon to West Dulwich.

Her opinion is that even if we pay more for a property in Zone 2, the quicker commute time is more beneficial for a healthy work/life balance. My opinion is that we should stay in Croydon, as living in Zone 2 won't make much difference to commute times, even if the tickets are slightly cheaper.

If you're living in Croydon already and easy to get to Victoria which I presume is the general destination, then I see no point in moving. Although being in a zone further away, you benefit from fast trains as you say. Plus your house price/rent will be cheaper!

Other locations further in across Zones 2-4 in S & SE London are reliant on stopping services, which means that your mins/mile will inevitable go up. West Dulwich for instance has further stops at Herne Hill and Brixton before arriving at Victoria. Bromley South is Croydon's SE London equivalent however with it being the first stop after leaving the London terminus.

The Chatham Mainline is very similar in terms of frequency (slightly less) and reliability to Southern.

 

[35B]

We are planning to move house and my partner thinks that living in Zone 2/3 is quicker as that's nearer London than where we currently live in Zone 5. To most people, that an obvious statement and sounds correct. But I had a feeling it wasn't so did some maths:

West Dulwich - Victoria: 4 tph, takes 13 mins (5.02 miles, 2.59 mins/mile). £1,124 annual.
East Croydon - Victoria: 8 fast tph, takes 15 mins (10.28 miles, 1.46 mins/mile) £1,684 annual.
Bromley South - Victoria: 4 fast tph, takes 18 mins (10.71 miles, 1.68 mins/mile). £1,880 annual.

East Croydon - London Bridge: 14 fast tph, takes 14 mins (10.16 miles, 1.38 mins/mile). £1,872 annual.
North Dulwich - London Bridge: 4 tph, takes 15 minutes (4.53 miles, 3.31 mins/mile). £792 annual.

Wimbledon - London Waterloo: 14 tph, takes 18 mins (7.2 miles, 2.5 mins/mile). £1,048 annual.
Wimbledon - Victoria (District line): 10 tph, takes 38 mins (12.71 miles, 2.99 mins/mile). £1,696 annual.

Oddly, it takes 2x longer per mile to travel from West Dulwich to Victoria, compared to the other options which are twice as far, if I did my maths right! This doesn't take into account the reliability of the line. We've currently use East Croydon which has been good on average, but no idea about the South Eastern line? Also need to account for space and passenger numbers. Ignoring lockdown, a station with more tph will fare better during disruption than a station with less.

Looking at the price of an annual season ticket, we would save £560 comparing Croydon to West Dulwich.

Her opinion is that even if we pay more for a property in Zone 2, the quicker commute time is more beneficial for a healthy work/life balance. My opinion is that we should stay in Croydon, as living in Zone 2 won't make much difference to commute times, even if the tickets are slightly cheaper.

I'd look at where I want to live, and what the house prices are, then consider the commuting costs - on pure economics, you'd only need to spend £45/month more on your home to have spent that saving. Then I'd look at the nearby stations and consider commuting times.

I'll also give you an extreme contrast. I used to live in Orpington (Z5) and commute to London. That was ~40 minutes to Charing Cross, plus walking time at each end and the need to arrive early to bag a seat on the 7:37 (full & standing by Elmstead Woods). We moved to Grantham in 2004, and my commute is longer (~70 mins from KGX on average) but more comfortable (reserved seat) and more productive, but at a higher cost which is offset by a lower mortgage (small 3 bed terrace to 4 bed detached for a net £500 on the house price).

 

[Clip]

As London Bridge, Blackfriars and St Pancras are on the same line, for disruption purposes they might as well be considered one

I wouldn't put Blackfriars in there as even with London bridge out of action you can still take services from Blackfriars which with connections would get you back to Croydon even if you have to go Wimbledon and take the tram

 

[PeterC]

I remember in the late 70s SWMBO and I worked out that it would have cost the same to buy a flat in the Barbican and walk to work as to move out to the house that we could afford in Billericay and both commute by rail. Of course the lenders wouldn't take account of the saving of 2 seasons when calculating the salary multiplier and then there was the question of how service charges would escalate compared with rail fares.

If you are staying in Greater London then do make sure that you have alternative routes to work, this isn't too hard unless you go to the outer fringes.

Stability of employment is also important, there is not much point basing your finances on the point to point fare to Waterloo if your employer is likely to shift you all to Canary Wharf within weeks of moving in to your new house.

 

[maniacmartin]

I wouldn't move further in from Croydon unless you're moving to somewhere near a tube line, to avoid an interchange at a London Terminal.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

Whilst Croydon might not have the best neighbourhoods, it has some of the best transport links of any London Borough, Overground/Southern/Thameslink/Trams connections to Wimbledon for SWR and Beckenham Junction for SE, Southern Services to Milton Keynes and West London, Clapham Junction is well connected and on the doorstep, being able to get to Luton Airport and Gatwick are a massive plus and the close to 24tph to a London terminal at all hours makes Croydon the no.1 destination in my eyes. So find a nice neighbourhood in Croydon, within walking distance or a short tram/bus ride away from East or West Croydon and stay put.

 

[Abpj17]

As others, Croydon is pretty well connected - moving further in won't help much. And tube from zone 2 can be same speed/as slow as train from further out.

The radical change comes from a flat in zone 1 which is walking distance from office. But of course those flats tend to cost a small fortune - and you may be looking for more space, not less.

 

[pethadine82]

In these uncertain times it would also be useful to look at worst case scenario and redundancy. Mortgage cover, kids etc etc. There is a lot more working from home, although not all jobs can be done from home. It depends what line of work you are in.

 

[Ianno87]

In these uncertain times it would also be useful to look at worst case scenario and redundancy. Mortgage cover, kids etc etc. There is a lot more working from home, although not all jobs can be done from home. It depends what line of work you are in.

Also stability of house prices. With a shift to Working from Home, the premium commanded by proximity to central London employment may diminish over the coming years.

 

[higthomas]

You are of course comparing one of the less well connected areas in Zone 2/3.
Moving to Brixton, Lewisham or Clapham might well come up with a very different answer!

 

[Timmyd]

I commute daily from West Dulwich to Blackfriars, or did pre-Covid and have done 2/3 days a week in between lockdowns. There are a few things to think about here. OP doesn't say where he/she works - WDU has direct peak hour extras to Blackfriars in normal times but these have been suspended since Covid hit, but that's no great hardship as there are easy Thameslink connections at Herne Hill one stop away.

The service is reliable and since it went to 4tph Mon-Sat, including into the evenings, pretty much turn up and go. There's always plenty of room on peak trains, even the busiest ones if you don't mind going to the rear of the train.

The benefit of being in z2/3 as opposed to Croydon (apart from being a nicer area ) is that if things go wrong and knock out the whole area, there is always a way back. For the Dulwich area (either West or North) there are frequent buses back from Brixton tube and it only takes 10 or 15 mins. So if snow hits and the main line collapses, you can always get home. Whereas if something blocks the mainline through East Croydon - which isn't infrequent - there aren't many options and they will be slow and busy

 

[WesternLancer]

Interesting thread

surely also needs a weighting factor for rolling stock comfort / on board facilities (err probably just toilets or not I guess) not to mention rolling stock 'interest' value

 

[Metal_gee_man]

Interesting thread

surely also needs a weighting factor for rolling stock comfort / on board facilities (err probably just toilets or not I guess) not to mention rolling stock 'interest' value

It's safe to say as long as it isn't covered in graffiti, doesn't smell of piss, gets me a seat where possible and gets me there safely and reliably I couldn't care less what it is a 700, 455, 377 on Southern/TL, however the damp, smelly, graffiti laden SE metro 465/466s would drive me away

 

[Timmyd]

It's safe to say as long as it isn't covered in graffiti, doesn't smell of piss, gets me a seat where possible and gets me there safely and reliably I couldn't care less what it is a 700, 455, 377 on Southern/TL, however the damp, smelly, graffiti laden SE metro 465/466s would drive me away

Honestly they aren't that bad - the graffiti issue comes and goes (and the Ashford 377s seem worse hit in recent months) but they're much warmer and more comfortable than a 455 (or Standard in a 700 for that matter) and since they've installed the new DDA-compliant loos I've always found them in immaculate condition when leaving Victoria (not that you need them too often on a 13 minute journey)

 

[Jan Mayen]

Interesting thread

surely also needs a weighting factor for rolling stock comfort / on board facilities (err probably just toilets or not I guess) not to mention rolling stock 'interest' value

Are there any trains in the London area that would be of interest?

 

[WesternLancer]

Are there any trains in the London area that would be of interest?

open to debate.....

 

[jopsuk]

surely where you're actually going to makes a difference to the choice? Victoria, Waterloo and London Bridge are in quite different parts of central London. TfL reckons 21 minutes public transport between Victoria and London Bridge (including walking/waiting allowances), which in itself is longer than many of the journey options presented. A short ride into Victoria is of little value if the ultimate destination is The City!

 

[Abpj17]

Interesting thread

surely also needs a weighting factor for rolling stock comfort / on board facilities (err probably just toilets or not I guess) not to mention rolling stock 'interest' value

The new Thameslink trains are pretty good. Or at least the declassified first class with comfortable (not ironing board) seats, and tables, and sockets and air con. Definitely a blessing after years of much much worse.

 

[Meglos]

If you choose Wimbledon and go with the LU price (Annual 1-3 Travelcard) then you have direct access to Waterloo (SWR), Victoria (District Line), and Blackfriars (Thameslink). So in case of disruption there are three separate routes into Central London.

Obviously this is more expensive than the Wimbledon-Waterloo (SWR) season ticket, but the LUL price does give you access to all public transport in Zones 1-3.

 

[iphone76]

If you choose Wimbledon and go with the LU price (Annual 1-3 Travelcard) then you have direct access to Waterloo (SWR), Victoria (District Line), and Blackfriars (Thameslink). So in case of disruption there are three separate routes into Central London.

Obviously this is more expensive than the Wimbledon-Waterloo (SWR) season ticket, but the LUL price does give you access to all public transport in Zones 1-3.

Plus with a 1-3 travel card you can hop on the tram to Croydon for fun nights out at no extra cost.

 

[Meglos]

Plus with a 1-3 travel card you can hop on the tram to Croydon for fun nights out at no extra cost.

Also South Wimbledon gives you access to Central London on the Northern Line even in case of Station closure at Wimbledon