Monday 4th January 2016 - Rail Chaos/Meltdown predicted

[Oswyntail]

......
Of course the dates are inclusive of Thatcher's railways hating reign and John Major hated railways so much that he privatised them instead of just investing the money wasted on privatisation in the railways. Funds raised from the sale in 1995 were naturally put back into rail investment I don't think. The explosion in growth would have happened anyway even without privatisation.

Very seasonal - "Chestnuts roasting on an open fire". :roll:

 

[Joseph_Locke]

The explosion in growth would have happened anyway even without privatisation.

I contend that it wouldn't - extrapolating the figures forwards from 1994 gives an annual 536m journeys for this year, against a projected 1,600m!

BR was forced into the weird conclusion that since it couldn't borrow money (long-term) to invest in expansion*, what it could do was manage the growing demand by raising fares. Big fare hikes equals reduced demand, constant revenue (good) and no need to expand the network (result!).

So, once this fairly odd policy was done away with and BritGov PLC hardened its attitude of making the GBTP pay for the railways (not the ordinary tax-payer) then, oddly, ridership has increased whist the rate of fare rises has reduced (in comparative terms).

* BR was required to show an immediate 8% annual return on investment borrowing, which it could never do. Most of the big capital spend projects of the 70s and 80s were gifts to BR from their buddies at Treasury.

 

[edwin_m]

Around the time of privatisation we were entering a period of relative economic boom, traffic congestion was increasing and there was a "fuel price escalator" in place. I think it's very hard to separate these effects from anything resulting from privatisation and therefore difficult to say that privatisation in itself was a reason for increased passenger numbers.

Since then numbers have continued to grow but ironically from 2000 onwards the private operators have had far less ability to respond to the market due to increased state control. Other effects would be the rebound from the Hatfield consequences, and the continuing difficulties of travelling by road leading to the long period of increasing car mileage pretty much coming to an end.

 

[SWT_USER]

So, were there any over-runs causing Rail Chaos?

Don't know about 'chaos' but engineering work near Staines overran in to Monday morning causing cancellations - it was inconvenient. Haven't seen any chaos/ meltdown headlines about it though..

 

[absolutelymilk]

If you want to compare rail fare increases over time you may find the attached table of interest taken from Gourvish business history of British Rail. It shows fare increases were well in excess of inflation during the 1980s

Thanks for the table, which book are you referring to? I can only find "British Railways 1948-73: A Business History" with that title.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/British-Railways-1948-73-Business-History/dp/0521188830

 

[GRALISTAIR]

...Of course the dates are inclusive of Thatcher's railways hating reign....

She hated railways so much that we got:
The Channel Tunnel
CTRL aka HS1 planning stage
ECML Electrification
Doncaster - Leeds electrification
London -Norwich electrification
London - Kings Lynn Electrification
Bournemouth -Weymouth electrification
+ others.

Yes sure. :roll:

 

[najaB]

She hated railways so much that we got...

Yeah, but other than The Channel Tunnel, CTRL aka HS1 planning stage, ECML Electrification, Doncaster - Leeds electrification, London -Norwich electrification, London - Kings Lynn Electrification, and Bournemouth -Weymouth electrification, what did Maggie ever do for us?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

-- what did Maggie ever do for us?

One of her great mistakes in my opinion. Of course you got Ayrshire electrification and new units and electrification to Edinburgh and to Carstairs - but IMHO - EGIP classic via Falkirk electrification would have been a great follow on thence to Stirling etc. More certainly could have been done for Scotland. (and Wales for that matter too.)

 

[najaB]

One of her great mistakes in my opinion. Of course you got Ayrshire electrification and new units and electrification to Edinburgh and to Carstairs - but IMHO - EGIP classic via Falkirk electrification would have been a great follow on thence to Stirling etc. More certainly could have been done for Scotland. (and Wales for that matter too.)

LOL, I wasn't actually doing a Rob Roy there - was hoping someone would say "The aqueduct."

 

[miami]

Yeah, but other than The Channel Tunnel, CTRL aka HS1 planning stage, ECML Electrification, Doncaster - Leeds electrification, London -Norwich electrification, London - Kings Lynn Electrification, and Bournemouth -Weymouth electrification, what did Maggie ever do for us?

Chiltern modernisation?

 

[deltic]

Thanks for the table, which book are you referring to? I can only find "British Railways 1948-73: A Business History" with that title.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/British-Railways-1948-73-Business-History/dp/0521188830

Sorry it is the next one

"British Rail 1974-1997

From Integration to Privatisation"

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Sorry it is the next one

"British Rail 1974-1997 From Integration to Privatisation"

Wow - even used/2nd hand is 50 quid. Not cheap but a great reference I imagine.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

One of her great mistakes in my opinion. Of course you got Ayrshire electrification and new units and electrification to Edinburgh and to Carstairs - but IMHO - EGIP classic via Falkirk electrification would have been a great follow on thence to Stirling etc. More certainly could have been done for Scotland. (and Wales for that matter too.)

I'm sort of glad we didn't get round to the E&G under BR, just been looking at the work at Manuel Junction, and the portals across the three tracks there, rather than headspans which would have been a feature of a BR scheme.

 

[deltic]

Wow - even used/2nd hand is 50 quid. Not cheap but a great reference I imagine.

Definately worth getting - there is a copy on ebay at the moment for £25

 

[Antman]

Don't know about 'chaos' but engineering work near Staines overran in to Monday morning causing cancellations - it was inconvenient. Haven't seen any chaos/ meltdown headlines about it though..

Me neither, some people on here do like to exaggerate!

 

[Ships]

That does all assume a steady state and doesn't account for the factors such as cost and difficulty of using the car to commute. Given the levels of public money invested in the privatised system it seems unlikely that at least some of this wouldn't have happened if the railways had have stayed in public ownership.

I contend that it wouldn't - extrapolating the figures forwards from 1994 gives an annual 536m journeys for this year, against a projected 1,600m!

BR was forced into the weird conclusion that since it couldn't borrow money (long-term) to invest in expansion*, what it could do was manage the growing demand by raising fares. Big fare hikes equals reduced demand, constant revenue (good) and no need to expand the network (result!).

So, once this fairly odd policy was done away with and BritGov PLC hardened its attitude of making the GBTP pay for the railways (not the ordinary tax-payer) then, oddly, ridership has increased whist the rate of fare rises has reduced (in comparative terms).

* BR was required to show an immediate 8% annual return on investment borrowing, which it could never do. Most of the big capital spend projects of the 70s and 80s were gifts to BR from their buddies at Treasury.