Modal shift research

[m_b88]

Hi everybody, I am currently studying towards a BA(Hons) in organisational capability and development. I have chosen to research the potential for a modal shift from air to rail, focussing on the London to Edinburgh route (as it is the most popular domestic flight). As environmental concerns are rising and the rail sector is far more economical than the airline industry I thought this could be an opportunity for LNER (as a provider of the route) to capitalise. What are your thoughts on this? Could this happen if so why? if not, why? Your thoughts on this matter or personal experiences would be much appreciated. Thanks

 

[telstarbox]

Welcome to the forum.

You might start by reading these threads:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ak-edinburgh-london-rail-market-share.163758/

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/london-to-glasgow-via-train-or-plane-which-is-faster.41018/

The Caledonian Sleeper also runs between London and Edinburgh/Aberdeen/Inverness and competes with domestic flights from those cities' airports:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/caledonian-sleeper.176365/

 

[telstarbox]

And this article on London-Scotland weekly commuters might be of interest

https://www.ft.com/content/4fd8769c-2f89-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a

[Mods - can't include an extract due to FT restrictions]

 

[A0]

Hi everybody, I am currently studying towards a BA(Hons) in organisational capability and development. I have chosen to research the potential for a modal shift from air to rail, focussing on the London to Edinburgh route (as it is the most popular domestic flight). As environmental concerns are rising and the rail sector is far more economical than the airline industry I thought this could be an opportunity for LNER (as a provider of the route) to capitalise. What are your thoughts on this? Could this happen if so why? if not, why? Your thoughts on this matter or personal experiences would be much appreciated. Thanks

The challenge with all 'modal shifts' is whether people are prepared to see a degradation in their journey - so London - Edinburgh is about 90 mins (depending on the airport) so call that 3 hours with 30 min check in either side. The train takes 4.5 - 5 hours.

This means if you need to travel from London - Edinburgh and back in a day (assuming a 12 hour "working" day for these purposes) you can spend 6 hours in your destination if you fly or 2 if you use the train. That's why for business travellers the plane makes far more sense.

Leisure travellers already choose, largely based on cost - so there are cheap rail fares, cheap air fares and cheap coach fares - just depends how cheaply you need to travel and whether you have any sensitivity on times to be there / back.

 

[30907]

The challenge with all 'modal shifts' is whether people are prepared to see a degradation in their journey - so London - Edinburgh is about 90 mins (depending on the airport) so call that 3 hours with 30 min check in either side. The train takes 4.5 - 5 hours.

This means if you need to travel from London - Edinburgh and back in a day (assuming a 12 hour "working" day for these purposes) you can spend 6 hours in your destination if you fly or 2 if you use the train. That's why for business travellers the plane makes far more sense.

The OP needs to take into account the impending Open Access operation and the coming Azuma timetable, which will reduce times further (they are already average about 4h30 whereas you are calculating 5h). Not to mention HS2, so I won't

Whether air travel is an "enhancement" over rail is a matter of judgement, but unless you live and work nearer an airport than the city centre (and I realise peoplel may do so) you need to add to the air travel time.
I would suggest the true times at destination are more like 5h air and 3h rail, and that doesn't take into account the better working environment of rail.

 

[gordonthemoron]

also it is easier to work on the train than on a plane

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It was also once famously said (mid 90s off memory) "People don't really want more people to travel by train, they want other people to travel by train to free up road space so they can travel by car". There has to be political will for modal shift. Tax on short haul flights (but they wont do that because they want to save FlyBE) a really needs an increase but the government is probably wary. But IMHO it really should be a no brainer. Get the trains reliable, keep pricing reasonably sensible and go by train between London and Edinburgh and get some work done on a laptop etc if so desired.

 

[MarkyT]

I think HS2, particularly after ph.2, will be a game changer even on this route. City - city rail journey time will then be much closer to real air times from Scotland, so expect a shift.